Littlefinger hired a Faceless Man to kill Ned

[sweetsunray]

It has been a while since I re-read ACOK. I seem to remember that Yoren was deterrmined to keep her silent about who she was. Did Arya sleep beside the wagon that housed the convicts? Is that how Jaqen knew her prayers? Did Jaqen, this man who changes faces with the wave of a hand accidently overhear conversation between Yoren & Arya? When Arya spills the beans to Gendry were they near the wagon? I am asking because I do not remember.

Jaqen is a persona. Not real, no one. What face or identity he had before he landed in the cells is a mystery. He definately knows her as Lady Arya of House Stark, and he turns up later in the prologue of AFFC trying to worm his way into the Citadel.

She starts the prayer-list after she's captured and is on her way to HH. That's when her hate for the scum of the earth builds up and she begins to recite names in order to fall asleep. She continues to do this at HH. She noticed Jaqen, but he gives no sign to her he saw her (though I'm sure he did). She even considers adding him to the list, for being part of Tywin's army now, after she saved his life, but doesn't. She continues reciting names to herself, and puts Weese at the top of it. Then Jaqen confronts her and tells her she owes the red god 3 lives. I'm not certain when Jaqen knew she was Arya Stark of WF. But he takes an uncanny interest in her from the get go, calls her attention, but "boy". When he confronts her at HH after several days and nights he says "a boy has become a girl" (paraphrasing from memory), and then when he requires the 3d name at the heart tree with the face where she's practicing with a broom stick in teh canopy and questions the power of the Old gods, he reveals he knows who she is. Arya wonders whether Gendry let something slip, but she doesn't believe that. Either Jaqen always knew, or he figured it out somehow.

Arya spills the beans to Gendry after they escaped Ser Amory. The adults with them in the woods are either dead or have abandoned them. It's just Hot Pie, dying Lommy and Weasel with them. Arya and Gendry leave them for a while to see whether they can find food in the village they spotted. That's where Arya spills the beans. Next they end up captured. So, Jaqen is not there.

Arya reciting names on the KR and spilling the beans to Gendry after he leads her away from Jaqen, Rorge and Biter in their cage is a show only sequence, as is Joren giving Arya the idea of the list. In the books she starts doing it by herself, when taken prisoner and taken to HH.

[the tower of albion]

On this assusmption doesn't it make more sense Littlefinger wants Varys eliminated? Still Jaqen H'ghar failed (in either task) His agenda (the faceless mens agenda) remains as galling as Littlefingers. Good luck to the maesters explaining this period of Ice & Fires world history.

Littlefinger in league with the lands of always winter? Pointers to that thread please. :)

[Lost Melnibonean]

On this assusmption doesn't it make more sense Littlefinger wants Varys eliminated? Still Jaqen H'ghar failed (in either task) His agenda (the faceless mens agenda) remains as galling as Littlefingers. Good luck to the maesters explaining this period of Ice & Fires world history.
Littlefinger in league with the lands of always winter? Pointers to that thread please. :)

If the target was Varys, why didn't the faceless man finisj the job? The only two likely targets who were eliminated were Robert and the Ned. That the faceless man was in the black cells and then bound for the Wall suggests that he was tracing The Ned's movements. Who, other than Petyr would have hired a faceless man to kill The Ned?

[~~~~~~~~~~~~~]

I started this theory by asking why a Faceless Man was in chains on the way to the Wall. After he was released by Arya and paid her debt to the Red God he moved on. He didn't continue on to help Arya and he didn't continue on to the Wall. I don't believe a Faceless Man was simply caught and thrown into the Black Cells. He was there on purpose. 

But his purpose ended after he was in chains and bound for the Wall. The only change was Eddard's execution ordered by Joffrey, which caught everybody, except maybe Petyr, Illyn, and Janos, by surprise. Eddard's taking the Black was a perfect solution for Cercei and Varys but not for Petyr.

There are several clues in the text that Petyr hired a Faceless Man to kill Eddard. He complained of the cost of hiring a Faceless Man, he had access to the Black Cells and influence over some the guards, etc. 

But it was reevaluating the vision induced by Bloodraven, when he first appeared to Bran as the three-eyed crow, that convinced me. Bran saw three shadows threatening his father and sisters. The first two were clearly Sandor and Jaime. The third loomed over the other two, a giant in armor made of stone. Inside his visor was nothing but darkness and thick black blood.

Most readers assumed that the third was Gregor. His transformation in the Black Cells supported that conclusion. Other readers settled on Petyr after learning about his family's past.

Although Petyr was a small man who adopted the mockingbird as his sigil, the sigil of his house was the stone head of the Titan of Braavos, and Petyr soon proved to be a much graver threat to Bran's father and sisters than either Sandor or Jaime, both of whom eventually attempted to aid the Stark girls. And when the Hound and the Kingslayer faced each other during the Hand's tourney Littlefinger sat above them in the viewing stands wagering on the outcome.

Most important though the third shadow envisioned by Bran was faceless. When Eddard first met Petyr, Littlfinger told him in jest that he was leading him to the dungeons to slit his throat and seal his corpse behind a wall. Mayhaps he was. Mayhaps he expected Lord Eddard to be outmaneuvered by the Lannisters (with his help of course) and end up disgraced and in the dungeons where a Faceless Man would assassinate him and seal his corpse behind a wall, never to return to the crypts at Winterfell.

Tyrion XI, Storm

ETA

As I continued working on this theory I discovered a partially translated interview with GRRM from a Spanish site suggesting that Syrio and the FM were exactly as they appeared with no detailed back stories. Apparently the two characters were nothing more than plot devices to advance the development of Arya. The interview was discussed on this forum in August 2012. Still, it just seems too odd to have a character like the Faceless Man who paid Arya's debt just sitting in the Black Cells with no back story. Hell, even Rorge and Biter had a backstory.

ETA II

Petyr could have hired the Faceless Man after Lysa poisoned Jon but before Catelyn arrived in King's Landing. Lysa had been secretly in love with Petyr for years. Petyr used that affection to rise under Jon to Master of Coin and to move from Gulltown to Kings Landing six years before Jons death. Petyr convinced Lysa to poison her husband to prevent Jon from sending her son to foster at Dragonstone and to clear the way for Lysa to wed Petyr eventually. Lysa poisoned Jon with the tears of Lys. 

Ironically, very soon after Jons death, Robert agreed to allow Tywin to foster young Robert Arryn. Lysa, who lived almost exclusively for her sickly son, fled Kings Landing for the Eyrie the following day with her son in tow. Since Lysa was already at, or on her way to, the Eyrie when the Starks received word of Jons death, she probably fled Kings Landing very soon thereafter. 

Petyr then had Lysa send a secret message to her sister, accusing the Lannisters of murdering her husband. Petyr persuaded Lysa to send the message to her sister to turn the discord between the Lannisters and Starks into open animosity and possible bloodshed to foment a chaotic environment to his advantage. 

The most likely timeline allowed for a six-month period between the death of Jon and the arrival of Lady Catelyn in Kings Landing. The secret message appeared to arrive in Winterfell right in the middle of that period. Mayhaps Petyr traveled to the Eyrie sometime after Lysa fled. Mayhaps that was when he convinced her to send the secret message. But his absence from court would have been noticed. Mayhaps he let it be known that, as Master of Coin, he needed to travel to Braavos to meet with agents or principals of the Iron Bank and mayhaps he actually did, stopping in Gulltown on the way and meeting secretly with Lady Lysa at the Eyrie to convince her to write the secret message. And mayhaps he also met with the Kindly Man at the House of Black and White. He would have had a three-month window to travel by ship, mayhaps the Titans Daughter, to Gulltown, to the Eyrie, and to Braavos and back to Kings Landing.

ETA III

When Eddard first met Petyr he told Eddard that he was growing old and slow even as Petyr appeared more nimble, at least at sneaking around the castle and at court intrigue.

ETA IV

While hiring a Faceless Man was the most expensive method of killing his nemesis, it was also the surest as Petyr pointed out when he told Eddard that he had saved Daenerys by talking the council out of hiring a Faceless Man. Petyr had learned a sharp lesson fighting Eddard's brother. A lesson reinforced when Ned put a dagger to his throat on the way to meet Catelyn in a brothel. If Petyr had tried to pull a dagger in the dark, the Ned woulda kicked his ass. Petyr had to play by different rules. And while Petyr took risks he played to win by any means necessary.

Please don't use mayhaps anymore.  I'm begging you.

 

I'll give your theory more thought.  I find some of it interesting.

[aryagonnakill#2]

The Tower of Albion, Wow that's a great point.  I never thought of that but it makes the most sense really.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Please don't use mayhaps anymore.  I'm begging you.
 
I'll give your theory more thought.  I find some of it interesting.

You're right. It sounds dorky. I took them out.

[Clegane'sPup]

Ironically, very soon after Jons death, Robert agreed to allow Tywin to foster young Robert Arryn. Lysa, who lived almost exclusively for her sickly son, fled Kings Landing for the Eyrie the following day with her son in tow. Since Lysa was already at, or on her way to, the Eyrie when the Starks received word of Jons death, she probably fled Kings Landing very soon thereafter. 

 

Robert seems to be mistaken about Tywin fostering young Jon Arryn.

 

 

"I will take him as ward, if you wish," Ned said. "Lysa should consent to that. She and Catelyn were close as girls, and she would be welcome here as well."

"A generous offer, my friend," the king said, "but too late. Lord Tywin has already given his consent. Fostering the boy elsewhere would be a grievous affront to him."

"I have more concern for my nephew's welfare than I do for Lannister pride," Ned declared.

AGoT Eddard I

 

Robert seems to be mistaken because gossip says Arryn was sending his son to Dragonstone.

 

 

She said Lord Jon had been reading more than was good for him, that he was troubled and melancholy over his young son's frailty, and gruff with his lady wife. The potboy, now cordwainer, had never exchanged so much as a word with Lord Jon, but he was full of oddments of kitchen gossip: the lord had been quarreling with the king, the lord only picked at his food, the lord was sending his boy to be fostered on Dragonstone, the lord had taken a great interest in the breeding of hunting hounds, the lord had visited a master armorer to commission a new suit of plate, wrought all in pale silver with a blue jasper falcon and a mother-of-pearl moon on the breast. The king's own brother had gone with him to help choose the design, the potboy said. No, not Lord Renly, the other one, Lord Stannis.

AGoT Eddard VI

 

Maester Colman tells Cat the boy was to be sent to Dragonstone.

 

 

"His lord father agreed with you," said a voice at her elbow. She turned to behold Maester Colemon, a cup of wine in his hand. "He was planning to send the boy to Dragonstone for fostering, you know … oh, but I'm speaking out of turn." The apple of his throat bobbed anxiously beneath the loose maester's chain. "I fear I've had too much of Lord Hunter's excellent wine. The prospect of bloodshed has my nerves all a-fray …"

"You are mistaken, Maester," Catelyn said. "It was Casterly Rock, not Dragonstone, and those arrangements were made after the Hand's death, without my sister's consent." AGoT Catelyn VII

 

Walder Frey tells Cat Arryn’s son was to be fostered at Dragonstone.

 

 

She frosted up as if I'd suggested selling her boy to a mummer's show or making a eunuch out of him, and when Lord Arryn said the child was going to Dragonstone to foster with Stannis Baratheon, she stormed off without a word of regrets and all the Hand could give me was apologies. What good are apologies? I ask you."

Catelyn frowned, disquieted. "I had understood that Lysa's boy was to be fostered with Lord Tywin at Casterly Rock."

"No, it was Lord Stannis," Walder Frey said irritably. "Do you think I can't tell Lord Stannis from Lord Tywin? They're both bungholes who think they're too noble to shit, but never mind about that, I know the difference. Or do you think I'm so old I can't remember? I'm ninety and I remember very well.

[...]

"Jon Arryn was going to foster his son with Lord Stannis, you are quite certain of that?"

"Yes, yes, yes," the old man said. "Only he died, so what does it matter? You say you want to cross the river?" AGoT Catelyn IX

 

Stannis tells Cressen the boy was to be fostered at Dragonstone.

 

 

What of Lady Arryn? If the queen murdered her husband, surely she will want justice for him. She has a young son, Jon Arryn's heir. If you were to betroth Shireen to him—"

"The boy is weak and sickly," Lord Stannis objected. "Even his father saw how it was, when he asked me to foster him on Dragonstone. Service as a page might have done him good, but that damnable Lannister woman had Lord Arryn poisoned before it could be done, and now Lysa hides him in the Eyrie. She'll never part with the boy, I promise you that." ACoK Prologue

 

It appears that Robert was mistaken. I understand that this does not fit in with your OP, but it does go to show that LF was doing some wheeling and dealing early on as it applies to Lysa. (?)

[Lost Melnibonean]

Robert seems to be mistaken about Tywin fostering young Jon Arryn.
 
 
Robert seems to be mistaken because gossip says Arryn was sending his son to Dragonstone.
 
 
Maester Colman tells Cat the boy was to be sent to Dragonstone.
 
 
Walder Frey tells Cat Arryns son was to be fostered at Dragonstone.
 
 
Stannis tells Cressen the boy was to be fostered at Dragonstone.
 
 
It appears that Robert was mistaken. I understand that this does not fit in with your OP, but it does go to show that LF was doing some wheeling and dealing early on as it applies to Lysa. (?)

Drink with me, brother. Have a taste of this... Before Petyr had Lysa poison her husband, and as Jon and Stannis uncovered the truth of the twincest, Stannis agreed to foster young Robert. That's why Lysa agreed to poison Jon. After that, Cersei conived to have the Lord of the Eyrie fostered at Casterly Rock.

[Clegane'sPup]

Drink with me, brother. Have a taste of this... Before Petyr had Lysa poison her husband, and as Jon and Stannis uncovered the truth of the twincest, Stannis agreed to foster young Robert. That's why Lysa agreed to poison Jon. After that, Cersei conived to have the Lord of the Eyrie fostered at Casterly Rock.

 

Whether I be drinkin' witcha depends on if ins its koolaid or glenfiddich. :cool4:

[Caspoi]

Hardly, considering the cost of the faceless men. Littlefinger was rich, certainly, but also pragmatic and hardly going to waste tons of money or similar to kill a man that you can remove through much cheaper means, and whose death was not really necessary.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Hardly, considering the cost of the faceless men. Littlefinger was rich, certainly, but also pragmatic and hardly going to waste tons of money or similar to kill a man that you can remove through much cheaper means, and whose death was not really necessary.

That seems to be the most frequent criticism of this theory. Fortunately for the theory it's a subjective criticism.

So, why do you think the faceless man who paid Arya's debt to the red god was in the black cells?

[Codename: Nymeria]

Here's where you lose me: 

 

in your op, you say: 

 

 

 

Eddard's taking the Black was a perfect solution for Cercei and Varys but not for Petyr.

 

But if LF hired a FM to go to the Wall specifically to have Ned killed...why would that solution not also have worked for him? Shouldn't that have been exactly what he wanted if he had a trained assassin closing in on Ned?

 

Personally, I'd always assumed Jaqen had been thrown in there for trying to explain something to the Faith using his whole third-person annoyingness. But realistically...not even GRRM can provide a deep-seated explanation for everything. Or else, what happened to Silverwing and Morning?

[DMC]

Just curious, if this theory is correct, does LF get the money back?  What's the FM's refund policy?

 

I've always thought this theory was fun and creative, but not very plausible.  While it does explain why a FM was in the black cells (as well as eloquently explains why Baelish is the faceless giant in Bran's vision, which I agree with), what doesn't seem clear is when the FM was supposed to kill Ned.  If it was supposed to be in the black cells, it seems there was plenty of opportunity to kill Ned between his arrest and being taken to Baelor's Sept.  If it's at the Wall, that just seems like a horrible financial decision on Baelish's part.  That's like hiring Aaron Sorkin to write a birthday card.

[falcotron]

Just curious, if this theory is correct, does LF get the money back?  What's the FM's refund policy?

There's only a 10% face-restocking fee if the victim is returned undamaged.
 

I've always thought this theory was fun and creative, but not very plausible.  While it does explain why a FM was in the black cells (as well as eloquently explains why Baelish is the faceless giant in Bran's vision, which I agree with), what doesn't seem clear is when the FM was supposed to kill Ned.  If it was supposed to be in the black cells, it seems there was plenty of opportunity to kill Ned between his arrest and being taken to Baelor's Sept.  If it's at the Wall, that just seems like a horrible financial decision on Baelish's part.  That's like hiring Aaron Sorkin to write a birthday card.

Yes, this is the big huge problem with the theory. You hire a FM to kill someone who's too hard to get at in any other way, not to kill someone who's recently become one of the easiest targets in Westeros.

[desire]

I thought Payne lost his tongue not his face 

[Lost Melnibonean]

Here's where you lose me: 
 
in your op, you say: 
 
 
But if LF hired a FM to go to the Wall specifically to have Ned killed...why would that solution not also have worked for him? Shouldn't that have been exactly what he wanted if he had a trained assassin closing in on Ned?

Yes, but manipulating Joffrey into killing the Ned worked out even better.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Just curious, if this theory is correct, does LF get the money back?  What's the FM's refund policy?
 
I've always thought this theory was fun and creative, but not very plausible.  While it does explain why a FM was in the black cells (as well as eloquently explains why Baelish is the faceless giant in Bran's vision, which I agree with), what doesn't seem clear is when the FM was supposed to kill Ned.  If it was supposed to be in the black cells, it seems there was plenty of opportunity to kill Ned between his arrest and being taken to Baelor's Sept.  If it's at the Wall, that just seems like a horrible financial decision on Baelish's part.  That's like hiring Aaron Sorkin to write a birthday card.

Those are fair criticisms.

[Ser Knute]

It's a plausible theory to be sure.  I'd offer that perhaps Petyr got some or all of the coin for the price of a FM by cooking the books as MoC.  We know Tyrion discovered that Petyr had at the least taken out loans to pay other loans etc. but since Robert cared so little about counting coppers, it stands to reason that Petyr could've embezzled a lot of coin.  

 

Couple that with perhaps the "foiling" of that plan by Joffrey and it still could've been a hit that just didn't work out.  One thing that strikes me as odd... Jaqen appears to honestly need Arya's help in escaping the cage on the King's Road.  This could be a nudge to suggest that while he may have 'allowed' himself to be taken prisoner or however he ended up in the Black Cells that he may have not been able to just get himself out as it were because it seems to be suggested that he was able to move about freely and could've just snuck over to Ned's cell and noone would've been the wiser.

 

The plan may have been to feign agreement with Varys in sending Ned to the Wall, but the hit was still on as far as Petyr was concerned (and Jaqen as well).  Instead, Joffrey changes his mind and calls for Ned's head.  Now Jaqen is in a pickle no?  He's caged up and Yoren has the key.  Now, I would bet that he was willing to go all the way to the Wall if that was the first opportunity he'd have to get out of the cage (and from there easy enough to change faces and slip away), but as it happened, Lannister men thwart that and now Jaqen is actually in peril with the fire threatening to burn him alive.  Arya saving Jaqen, who "may" have been there to kill her father is just ripe with irony no?  Maybe THAT is how Jaqen knew or figured out who she was and maybe that's why he has an interest or develops one.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Wow, I never noticed that Littlefinger's are same color as his family's sigil. 

[LiveFirstDieLater]

Of all the reasons for Jaquen to be in a black cell, this one seems a bit obtuse...

Syrio being Jaquen makes the most sense to me, timelines work out, explains why he's in a cell, why he knows Arya, Braavos connection, etc...

but ok, looking for other options...

well it's true that LF has a family Braavos connection, that was really his grandfather, and he might have had money from being master of coin and good with the books, but it really doesn't seem a prudent investment.

Varys can change his face, we know had easy access to the black cells, he's playing a subtle game, and doesn't have scruples about killing people... Why not him? In fact, when he visits Ned in the black cells he starts the conversation by telling Ned he's already dead... Then explains how Cersei is going to offer that he takes the black and urges Ned to take the deal for Sansa's sake... Doesn't make much sense. 

Also, the Varys theory doesn't exclude Syrio being Jaquen... It explains both where Ned got the recommendation from and why a faceless man would work as Arya's Dancing master. Actually, look at how Varys tells Ned the Belarion kitten story on that visit... Presumably the same cat Arya is sent to chase by Syrio when she overhears Varys and Illyrio. Also, Syrio has his own cat story, which he tells Arya, about a cat that is only remarkable for being yellow and fat... Now who else is described like that? Oh ya, Illyrio...