College Football: Offseason coaching drama and crootin'

[lokisnow]

Season Preview, right now I think the SEC is down this year, kiffin and a new qb ensures Bama has 2 to 3 losses and doesn't make the playoff. The east will be a mess again and auburn cruises undefeated into the playoff number 3 seed.

Florida state falls asleep through most of the season and is still undefeated and number one in the playoff.

Both the small 10 and the small 12 beat each other up and both conference Champs look tepid with 2 losses each. They're both on the bubble.

I hate to say it but ucla thrive survives their schedule undefeated and goes into the playoff number 2 seed after beating Oregon a second time.

Stanford or oregon both have two losses as well. So that number 4 seed could go to either of them, bama, or the other two mediocre conference champs.

[Rhom]

Season Preview, right now I think the SEC is down this year, kiffin and a new qb ensures Bama has 2 to 3 losses and doesn't make the playoff. The east will be a mess again and auburn cruises undefeated into the playoff number 3 seed.

Florida state falls asleep through most of the season and is still undefeated and number one in the playoff.

Both the small 10 and the small 12 beat each other up and both conference Champs look tepid with 2 losses each. They're both on the bubble.

I hate to say it but ucla thrive survives their schedule undefeated and goes into the playoff number 2 seed after beating Oregon a second time.

Stanford or oregon both have two losses as well. So that number 4 seed could go to either of them, bama, or the other two mediocre conference champs.

I just find it hard to believe that they'll put two teams in from the same conference in the first year, unless as you say the Big 10 and Big 12 champs both have two losses. :dunno:

[lokisnow]

As for my teams, usc up first.

Fresno state = W

@ Stanford = L

@ Boston College = W unless injuries sustained from Stanford are catastrophic.

Bye

Oregon state = W

Arizona state = L

@ Arizona = W

Colorado = W

@ Utah = W

@ Washington state = W

Bye

California = W

@ UCLA = L

Notre Dame = W

9 and 3 is my prediction.

Amusingly, my phones auto correct changed that to "not really dame"

Usc's season is entirely controlled by the Stanford game. If we escape with a loss and no injuries we could have the above record or better. If Stanford wipes out a good chunk of our starting 22 we won't even make a bowl.

[lokisnow]

I just find it hard to believe that they'll put two teams in from the same conference in the first year, unless as you say the Big 10 and Big 12 champs both have two losses. :dunno:

I was going to argue for 2 pac teams then realized for ucla to win the conference undefeated both Stanford and Oregon have to have two losses. I love the idea of the first playoff having three undefeated teams and a two loss team no one is happy about. That's true almost any way you slice it with an undefeated pac team since all three teams play each other in the regular season. it makes me realize what a massive advantage the secs pussy other division conference game scheduling is. Undoubtedly they'll be rewarded once again for being 8 conference game cowards.

[S John]

Man, WVU is so hard to predict. Last season was terrible but I do think that the team will be better this year in every aspect. And as terrible as they were they lost 3 games in overtime so were really pretty competitive. On the downside, the schedule this year is more difficult.

Anyway, this is what my head tells me (not my heart):

Alabama (@Georgia Dome) - L

Towson - W

@Maryland - W*

Oklahoma - L

Kansas - W

@Texas Tech - L

Baylor - L

@Oklahoma State - W

TCU - W

@Texas - L

Kansas State - L

@Iowa State - W

Final record: 6-6. Hopefully get a bowl win to get to 7-6 and set up for a solid year in 2015. Holgorsen keeps his job.

That said I think that something more along the lines of 8-4 is entirely possible. TTU and KSU have had our number but are certainly mortal. I think a win @Texas is also possible as they are in rebuild mode with a new coach. And we get Oklahoma in Morgantown early in the year. Stranger things have happened and we have lost to them by a combined total of 10 points in our two Big 12 meetings. I don't see any way we beat Baylor, and Alabama is probably going to be looking to prove a point after 2 straight losses. I'd love to predict that we beat Bama this week, but I don't think we'll pull it out. I'm calling a closer loss than 27 points, though.

*Maryland waxed us last year but I think that was an anomaly. Hoping for revenge.

[lokisnow]

And then missouri:

South Dakota state = W

@ toledo = W

Ucf = W

Indiana = W

@ South Carolina = W

Bye

Georgia = L

@ Florida = W

Vanderbilt = L

Kentucky = W

Bye

@ Texas a and m = W

@ Tennessee = W

Arkansas = W

10 and 2

I really want the south Carolina scalp, they're the only team in the east missouri hasn't beaten. That said it's an unlikely prediction, but mauk nearly did beat them last year in his first start, south Carolina required OT and a miracle comeback via conner shaw iirc.

Far more likely is the reverse, a loss to south Carolina and a post bye week victory over Georgia, but my desire to beat south Carolina makes me predict the above.

Vandy I anticipate going badly because David shaw could defend Oregon and mizzous version of the spread is not as good as oregons.

Hard to say if we win the east again, I think it all depends on which of the teams in contention get the best qb performance out of their new qbs

[Eponine]

Virginia Tech:

William & Mary: W

Ohio State: L (It makes me sick, I was waiting for this game for years when we were a 10 win team. But without Miller, it's not a guaranteed L, at least)

East Carolina: W (maybe)

Georgia Tech: W (I predict Pitt for their yearly awful upset. Anytime GT beats someone, it's an awful upset)

Western Michigan: W

North Carolina: W (oh please)

Pitt: L (this feels like this years perfectly winnable fuckup)

Miami: L

Boston College: W

Duke: ? (This was a probable L a month ago, but they're having attrition problems)

Wake Forest: W (I'm confident of this one at least)

Virginia: W

8-4 - we should be able to capitalize on not playing Florida State or Clemson this year. 7-5 seems more likely. Like every year for the past decade, we expect a solid defense and an uncertain offense. New but somewhat experienced QB - transferred (graduated) as a backup from Texas Tech. Some true freshmen RBs expected to play (and probably start). Not really worth mentioning that we lost some of our best defensive players, because we always lose some of our best defensive players, because our best players are always our defensive players.

Lately a lot of games have been won or lost by sloppiness and stupidity (ours or theirs). Last year we beat UNC and Pitt and crushed Miami but lost to Boston College and Maryland and only lost to Duke by 3. I have no idea why. I mean, I watched all those games and know what happened in each, but it still didn't tell me anything about the team except that Logan Thomas was a really inconsistent passer and the whole offense appeared to give up if too many runs got stuffed. If new QB Brewer comes out really strong and confidence inspiring, it could be a solid season over a weak schedule. If we can score against Ohio St and pressure their replacement QB, then there aren't any must-lose games. Being used to disappointment, I still predict a lot of could-win-but-didn't games.

[sperry]

Hard to pick all 12 games for OU. They should win all 12. They're better than everyone on their schedule. But, they will probably drop one they shouldn't. @Texas Tech looks like the hardest on the schedule. Weird things can always happen at the Cotton Bowl, but OU is about 2 touchdowns better than Texas on paper. Baylor will have an explosive offense, but they tend to be horrible away from home, while OU is lights out.

[lokisnow]

Conference Champs predictions:

PAC: Oregon & UCLA - UCLA wins the conference but loses to Oregon in the regular season, both UCLA and Oregon are one loss teams at the end.

SEC: Auburn & South Carolina - Auburn wins the conference undefeated, South Carolina is a 2 loss team, 3 losses after losing the conference championship game.

ACC: Florida State and Virginia Tech - Florida State wins undefeated.

small10*: Ohio State & Nebraska - Ohio State wins but has two losses in the regular season.

small12*: Baylor - Baylor has the best schedule in the small12 contenders, they cruise through undefeated, despite that, they drop to 4th in the rankings because of UCLAs impressively backloaded schedule.

Playoff: (8) Ohio State, (7)Oklahoma, (6)Alabama, and (5) Oregon are left out.

(1) Florida State vs (4) Baylor

(2) Auburn vs (3) UCLA

Championship game:

(1) Florida State vs (3) UCLA

UCLA wins

(*they can have the word BIG back when they learn first grade maths)

[Ken Stone]

small10*: Ohio State & Nebraska - Ohio State wins but has two losses in the regular season.

I don't see THE Ohio State getting past THE Michigan State. Especially without Braxton.

[lokisnow]

I don't see THE Ohio State getting past THE Michigan State. Especially without Braxton.

They may not have Braxton, but they still have Urban, and a not brutal schedule.

[Mike]

I hope you're right lockesnow, but we have a pretty brutal schedule and have already lost our best pass rusher and our starting left guard to injuries.

My prediction for Auburn:

Arkansas - Bielema has his team thinking this is the Super Bowl. It will be tougher than it should be, but I think we win going away. Win

San Jose St - Win

Kansas State - early season game, Thursday night, in Manhattan, against a Bill Snyder team. Loss

Louisiana Tech - Win

LSU - Freshman QB isn't up to snuff yet, and it is at home. Win.

Miss St - in Starkville, the fighting Mullens have always played us tough, and it is early enough for Prescott (who killed us last year) to still be healthy. Still, we usually find a way to beat them. Win.

South Carolina - USCe always seems to shit the bed against us, but I think Spurrier beats us for the first time since 2000. Loss.

Ole Miss - we start to click in this one. Win.

Texas A&M - they will be better than most expect, but I think we run all over their defense. Win.

Georgia - In Athens, and Gurley is a beast, but with Murray gone, I think we match up very well against them. Win

Samford - Win

Alabama - subpar QB play and an OL below their usual great standards means that they have a down year. For them, that is 3 losses. One of those to AU. Win.

10-2, we win the West. Play USCeast in the championship game. If we beat them, no SEC team makes the inaugural playoffs.

[lokisnow]

I hope you're right lockesnow, but we have a pretty brutal schedule and have already lost our best pass rusher and our starting left guard to injuries.

Yes, but unlike all the other teams that are contending for a division championship in the SEC, Auburn is the only team returning a starting QB.

I know the pundits like to give the Miss states the benefit of the doubt every year, but they always wind up missing, usually with two to three losses within their division, so I don't think they're really contenders.

That's partly why I think Missouri might be a contender for the East title this year, without Connor Shaw unexpectedly entering to the game late in the third quarter, Missouri beats South Carolina by 17 points last year and Maty Mauk goes undefeated in his first five starts. Those four games he won last year (and the one Connor Shaw miracle game that ought to have been a win) are better experience at QB than any of the teams in the SEC have in breaking in new QBs, and since Mauk gets four games as a starter before facing a conference opponent, that means that when 2014 conference play starts for Missouri, Mauk will have 9 games as a starter under his belt. ultimately, South Carolina does not have Connor Shaw this year, so I think you ought to be a little less pessimistic in terms of your Auburn matching up against them.

[Mike]

Yes, but unlike all the other teams that are contending for a division championship in the SEC, Auburn is the only team returning a starting QB.

I know the pundits like to give the Miss states the benefit of the doubt every year, but they always wind up missing, usually with two to three losses within their division, so I don't think they're really contenders.

That's partly why I think Missouri might be a contender for the East title this year, without Connor Shaw unexpectedly entering to the game late in the third quarter, Missouri beats South Carolina by 17 points last year and Maty Mauk goes undefeated in his first five starts. Those four games he won last year (and the one Connor Shaw miracle game that ought to have been a win) are better experience at QB than any of the teams in the SEC have in breaking in new QBs, and since Mauk gets four games as a starter before facing a conference opponent, that means that when 2014 conference play starts for Missouri, Mauk will have 9 games as a starter under his belt. ultimately, South Carolina does not have Connor Shaw this year, so I think you ought to be a little less pessimistic in terms of your Auburn matching up against them.

I do like the fact that Marshall is the only returning QB from the top six teams in the SEC. Excluding Mauk, of course, since he has started more than half a season already.

But AU has historically fallen on its face when predicted to win championships. I'm not, however, entirely certain that counts since everyone has jumped Alabama ahead of us. Still in the top ten, which is enough to get my heebie jeebies up, but 2nd in the division, which is enough to tamp them back down. This is a strange spot we're in and leaves me in limbo as to where our mojo is currently positioned for this season, which makes me uncertain and even more anxious for the season to start.

Honestly, it's mostly a tough stretch in the schedule and our best DE blowing his knee out that prevents me from going full homer and declaring that Auburn will go 15-0 and win the inaugural playoffs. As it is, I'm starting to think we might lose to Arkansas. I just need this Saturday to get here so I can tailgate, drink some beer, grill some beef, talk some shit, and bask in the glory of another college football season. When I can do that, I'll start to feel more optimistic about our chances.

[theprincethatwasntpromised]

I hope you're right lockesnow, but we have a pretty brutal schedule and have already lost our best pass rusher and our starting left guard to injuries.

My prediction for Auburn:

Arkansas - Bielema has his team thinking this is the Super Bowl. It will be tougher than it should be, but I think we win going away. Win

San Jose St - Win

Kansas State - early season game, Thursday night, in Manhattan, against a Bill Snyder team. Loss

Louisiana Tech - Win

LSU - Freshman QB isn't up to snuff yet, and it is at home. Win.

Miss St - in Starkville, the fighting Mullens have always played us tough, and it is early enough for Prescott (who killed us last year) to still be healthy. Still, we usually find a way to beat them. Win.

South Carolina - USCe always seems to shit the bed against us, but I think Spurrier beats us for the first time since 2000. Loss.

Ole Miss - we start to click in this one. Win.

Texas A&M - they will be better than most expect, but I think we run all over their defense. Win.

Georgia - In Athens, and Gurley is a beast, but with Murray gone, I think we match up very well against them. Win

Samford - Win

Alabama - subpar QB play and an OL below their usual great standards means that they have a down year. For them, that is 3 losses. One of those to AU. Win.

10-2, we win the West. Play USCeast in the championship game. If we beat them, no SEC team makes the inaugural playoffs.

Really? Wow! Go cocks

[Ded As Ned]

While I'm still in Preseason Fantasy Mode (an annual event for the Long-Suffering-Uk-Football-Fan), I'll go through my optimistic predictions for the season.

UT-Martin (W) - Easy warm-up against an FCS school

Ohio U (W) - Less-easy fine-tuning against an actual FBS opponent, who was a bowl team a year ago (by beating the dregs of the FBS)

@Florida (L) - Our best chance in recent memory to end the 27-or-so year losing streak against the Gators (yes, last year was the best opportunity, but we were shuffling and restocking the cabinet under year 1 of Stoops and didn't have any realistic chance to get a W). If this game were in Lexington, I'd give us more of a shot. I still think it will be a competitive game, closer than many might think.

Vanderbilt (W) - Vandy should have some growing pains under first-time head coach Derek Mason. I think UK wins by 2TD+, although most analysts think it's a toss up.

South Carolina (L) - Spurrier hasn't forgotten 2010, so he will continue to grind us into powder every chance he gets for the rest of his days. USC pulls away in the second half.

Louisiana-Monroe (W) - We'll be banged up from 3 weeks of SEC football, but we'll pull away in the second half.

@ LSU (L) - LSU in Death Valley. Enough said. Might be ugly

Miss. State (W) - This one is tough. MSU will be coming off games against LSU, A&M, and Auburn, but have a buy week before playing us, and also after LSU. I'd lean more towards UK without the buy weeks in there, but as-is, it's a toss-up for me. Home team gets the bias.

@Missouri (L) - Last year was a fluke. The Tigers have shown me nothing that makes me shiver. But for some reason I don't feel the win on the road.

Georgia (L) - We're just not there yet to hang with the Dawgs

@Tennessee (W) - With bowl eligibility on the line, we'll put it to the Vols. For the first time since I was a toddler, we'll be singing "On, On, U of K!" down on rocky top.

@Louisville (W) - Riding the high, the Cats will put it all together and take it to Petrino's Villans, my favorite coach to beat next to Spurrier. As with Spurrier, it is oh-so-sweet when it happens.

Record going into bowl season: 7-5. Stoops gets lots of mention for Coach of the Year honors.

[Ferrum Aeternum]

A little over 24 hours away from preseason optimism turning into actual season realism. Here's what I think for Ole Miss:

Boise St (in Atlanta) - W. Will be a very competitive game but I think we hold on for the win.

@ Vanderbilt - W. Glad we are catching them early. By mid-season they will be dangerous. It helps that this will be at LP Field instead of Vandy's stadium - will feel more like a neutral site game.

Louisiana-Lafayette - W. Solid mid-major will hang around for a half, but we'll pull away and win fairly big.

Memphis - W. Reigniting this old "rivalry" and thus giving Memphis fans a reason to care about football one week per year. Memphis looks to have a pretty good defense, but ours will be much better. I'll be pissed if the Tigers score in double digits.

Alabama - L. We may get College Gameday for this, and I think the game will be closer than usual, but I can't in good conscience predict a win against a team we've beaten 4 times in the last 38 years.

@ Texas A&M - W. Revenge game for the last two years. The fuckers don't have JFF to bail them out at the end anymore.

Tennessee - W. Serious trap game potential here. On paper we are a better team, but this game worries me the most of any swing game on the schedule.

@ LSU - L. Again we will be competitive but as the game is in Baton Rouge (likely at night) it's tough to go against history.

Auburn - L. I like our defense this year a lot, but the Malzahn machine scares the crap out of me.

Presbyterian - W. I wish we wouldn't schedule these kinds of games. We'll have about 60% of our normal attendance for this crapfest. At least young players will get some reps.

@ Arkansas - W. We've never played that well in Fayetteville but Arkansas still isn't quite there yet. Liable to be an ugly game but I think we pull it out.

Miss St - W. Will be tough if our nemesis Super Dak is healthy. Either way, we're not losing to these assholes in Oxford.

Final prediction 9-3, 5-3. A lot of swing games on this schedule, but I like our chances given all the experience and depth we have coming back.

[Ken Stone]

Nebraska has a Great D-Line, Great RB's, very solid O-Line, and the rest is iffy. I have a feeling we will put the "Special" into "Special teams". That being said I'm not high on my team.

Florida Atlantic - W. Nice game to smooth out some wrinkles

McNeese State - W. Whatever.

@Fresno State - W. Weird game starting at 9:00pm. A lot of people are really nervous for this game.

Miami(FL)-L. Miami and Nebraska have quite the history for two teams in different conferences. By all rights we should win this one but I don't suspect we will.

Illinois- W. I'm not real familiar with B1G yet, but I suspect that Illini is the Kansas...a free win every year.

@MSU - L. Many from Nebraska feel like we should have beat MSU last year. This year they have confidence and have been there. It's gonna hurt.

@NW -L. For some NW always brings it against Nebraska. Last year we won it on a lucky Hail Mary. This year NW is out for revenge.

Rutgers -W. Don't know what a Rutger is. Probably can't play ball though.

Purdue - W. Purdue is like the KState of the B1G. Usually a guaranteed win but sometimes put up a fight.

@Wisc-W. Wisc has been a tough match up for Nebraska. It looks like they are set for a down year though.

Minnesota -W. Minnesota is the Missouri of the B1G. Sometimes good, sometimes bad. They snuck one on us last year but we get it back this year.

@Iowa - W. They got us last year but I'm not convinced they can do it back to back.

That schedule looks pretty manageable really. Minnesota, Wisc, and Iowa could go either way but the others are solid wins. I'd be satisfied with 9-3 and rematch with MSU in the B1G champ game.

[Ramsay B.]

So Shaw lied...what a weirdo. Sign up for the college pick'em!! We only have 5.

[Ramsay B.]

OK that's 6 people already and I'm sure a few more will jump in. Lets see if this link works:

http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/college/5378?tid=1&reg_confirm=1

"Board Pick 'Em"

Group ID#: 5378

Password: asoiaf

Oh yea, don't forget that we're picking against the spread and not just straight W's and L's.