(Spoilers) The History of the Westerlands

[Lion of the West]

Well, the whole 'rain thing' did get an entirely new meaning with the whole flooding thing. 'Not a soul to hear' now, yes, but I guess the Reynes did hear 'the rain' for quite some time before they drowned...

Indeed they did. A shame for them they never had a chance to act on their newly found wisdom.

[Veltigar]

But now the rains weep o'er his hall, with no one there to hear. Yes now the rains weep o'er his hall, and not a soul to hear.^[1]

I always took the verse as a reference to the Reynes themselves. They (i.e. the ghosts of the Reynes that Tywin butchered) weep over their halls, but their is no one left alive to hear. A play on words (rain - Reynes) that seems to have been popular enough at the time, their sword apparently being called 'Red Rain' and in the reading the joke that it rained at CR or something like that when Eylen Reigne lived there.

[Bael's Bastard]

One interesting thing is that Tywin made the surviving Tarbeck women become Silent Sisters. There is an old theory that some of the Silent SIsters might have had a grudge against Tywin and might have purposely botched the job on his corpse, which led to the great stench and odd decomposition that so many have commented on and made theories about.

Interesting theory

[RumHam]

their sword being called 'Red Rain'

That's still just a theory, no?

[Veltigar]

That's still just a theory, no?

Oh right, poorly phrased of me ;)

[DNDM]

Maester Yandel would point out that the singers almost never make sense, and you would be wise to not take your history lessons from them.

Maester Yandel should have taken music lesson with archmaester "fun" Gyldayn. ;-)

[The Dragon Demands]

Regarding the Lannisters and the First Men vs Andals:

• "House Lannister" was only incorporated by the Andals who invaded the Westerlands six thousand years ago.
• The "Andal invasion" was more a series of migrations lasting many centuries. Some regions fought to the death (Oldstones) but many families intermarried with the Andal invaders to at least secure some sort of future for themselves. (This is very similar to the Norman conquest of Ireland).
• You're getting hung up on mentions that "Tyrion III and other kings married into the Andals"....married their daughters to the Andals? Maybe that's the full thought? Or that they took Andal wives and THEN at a later point, married daughters to Andal families - it was a process.
• There are rumors that Lann may have been an Andal adventurer millennia before the Andal invasion, but no one knows. He's to be regarded as a First Man. You're putting too much emphasis on this; even if he was an Andal (and its doubtful) he was just *one man* - whose children were completely raised First Men, to the point that most even doubted if their ancestor was anything but a First Man.
  
  QUESTION: If "House Lannister" was formally incorporated during the Andal invasion (6,000 years ago), and Lann tricked "House Casterly" out of Casterly Rock....what was the name of the House that Lann founded? Who ruled Casterly Rock between the time of Lann the Clever and the Andal Invasion?

[The Dragon Demands]

What I found most intriguing was the Fourth Blackfyre Rebellion (236 AC) - Daemon III Blackfyre's plan was to invade Massey's Hook with an army....sort of in the *northern Stormlands* (well, southern Crownlands)....and his *functioinal plan* was to win some quick victories on mainland Westeros to prove himself, then *entirely depend* on the hope that this would make many major noble Houses switch to his side. It didn't: Daemon I had been dead for 40 years, the Blackfyres themselves were just foreign mercenaries at this point, no one had any real attachment to them. Yes they could grab a few castles but anything remotely prolonged was beyond them.

Wink wink, nudge nudge, Young Griff's *entire* plan?

But if you think about it.....Tyrion basically duped Young Griff into launching an immediate invasion of the Stormlands to prove himself. They made a big deal about how they trained Young Griff all of his life to be well-educated, have martial skills (maybe Viserys III wouldn't have been quite so bad if they'd given him the attention Young Griff had?...he'd still be the Mad King's son, but he wouldn't be as bitter/crazy....)

The point is that Tyrion is a student of history and knows damn well how and why the Fourth Blackfyre Rebellion failed. Young Griff *should* know this, but he's too worried about Daenerys outshining him -- that, and sort of a point is that Young Griff may be book-smart but lacks real life experience.

So Tyrion basically duped him into repeating the Fourth Blackfyre Rebellion, to "impress people into allying with him", knowing damn well that the fourth rebellion failed because you need internal allies *before* you invade.

[Lord Varys]

The fact that the present Lannisters are supposed to be descended from Lann the Clever during the female line, could refer to the fact that the first Lannister king, Lorien, was only descended from Lann through the female line. And it is, of course, very likely, that there were many 'Lannister restorations' and/or distant female branches taking over the Rock, calling themselves 'Lannister' after the had been declared Kings of the Rock.

On Daemon III:

If the Third Blackfyre Rebellion was a major war, eventually leading to the death of Maekar I at Starpike - I imagine that Maekar defeated Bittersteel and the other pretender, and then decided to finally put an end to those cursed Peakes who, most likely, also rose against the Iron Throne during the Third Rebellion - it's quite likely people could simply no longer stomach the Blackfyres four years later.

But I imagine Egg facing at least 1-2 Blackfyre Rebellions during his reign, since it's supposed to be 'troubled', and if he started to alienate a lot of his lords during the years, later rebellions may have been much more successful...

And we really can't compare the situation in Westeros after the War of the Five Kings to the Targaryen era. Aegon V was a very strong king, I imagine. Right now, Westeros is really ripe for the taking.

[The Dragon Demands]

Reading through this, even to the point when Tywin hits Tytos.....I thought Tytos was a "good man but weak" before, but he comes off more like a less competent version of Robert Baratheon. Dangerously so.

Things were so bad that Aegon V, in disgust, had to send armies to restore order in the Westerlands, but the troubles started up again as soon as the royal armies left.

Meanwhile his answer to ironborn raiding was to actually beg them to stop, in letters which were ignored.

Not to mention that his control on the Westerlands themselves got so weak that septons were openly preaching against him.

This went above and beyond being an "amiable and forgiving fellow" to "fiddling while Rome burns". The Westerlands were falling apart around him. Not just the Lannisters losing strength but anarchy and brigandage were setting in.

And this was a long, years-long process of decline and humiliation.

The point when he gives his only daughter away in a marriage-alliance to Emmon Frey because "Walder Frey is a nice fellow" (he wanted to impress older men, as he was a younger son).....even though the Freys weren't a Great House, and Emmon wasn't even Walder's heir!

So at first the description that Tywin struck/slapped Tytos sounds evil....but it's all shades of grey. Reading through the entire section, just how bad things got under Tytos and just how ineffectual he was....happily ineffectual and seemingly unconcerned at the chaos he was causing through inaction.....that it felt like if someone had slapped King Robert and demanded that if Robert didn't set the royal court and massive debt problems to order, HE would.

You can sort of see from just how bad things got why Kevan and Genna revered Tywin....and also how this kind of blinded them to how evil Tywin treated his own children.

[HexMachina]

What I found most intriguing was the Fourth Blackfyre Rebellion (236 AC) - Daemon III Blackfyre's plan was to invade Massey's Hook with an army....sort of in the *northern Stormlands* (well, southern Crownlands)....and his *functioinal plan* was to win some quick victories on mainland Westeros to prove himself, then *entirely depend* on the hope that this would make many major noble Houses switch to his side. It didn't: Daemon I had been dead for 40 years, the Blackfyres themselves were just foreign mercenaries at this point, no one had any real attachment to them. Yes they could grab a few castles but anything remotely prolonged was beyond them.

Wink wink, nudge nudge, Young Griff's *entire* plan?

But if you think about it.....Tyrion basically duped Young Griff into launching an immediate invasion of the Stormlands to prove himself. They made a big deal about how they trained Young Griff all of his life to be well-educated, have martial skills (maybe Viserys III wouldn't have been quite so bad if they'd given him the attention Young Griff had?...he'd still be the Mad King's son, but he wouldn't be as bitter/crazy....)

The point is that Tyrion is a student of history and knows damn well how and why the Fourth Blackfyre Rebellion failed. Young Griff *should* know this, but he's too worried about Daenerys outshining him -- that, and sort of a point is that Young Griff may be book-smart but lacks real life experience.

So Tyrion basically duped him into repeating the Fourth Blackfyre Rebellion, to "impress people into allying with him", knowing damn well that the fourth rebellion failed because you need internal allies *before* you invade.

:o Well. Well, well, well.

Well. :o

[Maia]

Well, but situation was very different during the Fourth Blackfyre Rebellion. The way things currently stand, Westeros is so divided and lawless and current powerholders so unpopular that this approach may actually work. Particularly if Aegon really takes Storm's End, as it would be very impressive and symbolic victory.

Anyway, was it mentioned whom Tion Lannister set aside to marry Ellyn Reyne? Was it Jeyne Marbrand, who got Tytos as a consolation prize (in which case - Ellyn's attempt to seduce Tytos was even more gross) or was it somebody else?

Re: Tywin - it seems that his siblings weren't as blinkered about him as some suggested previously. He clearly _did_ have to save both his House and the West from complete anarchy, whilst being hampered and countermanded by Tytos every step of the way.

This, together with a Q&A tidbit that watching the Tysha rape was "brutal experience" for him too and that he didn't enjoy it at all makes me think that he didn't lie about his intentions to let Tyrion take the black.

It seems that Joffrey wasn't taking after him, in the end.

I wish that we had learned some of this in the novels proper, through Kevan's epilogue PoV, if nothing else.

[King Zee]

Wink wink, nudge nudge, Young Griff's *entire* plan?

So Tyrion basically duped him into repeating the Fourth Blackfyre Rebellion, to "impress people into allying with him", knowing damn well that the fourth rebellion failed because you need internal allies *before* you invade.

Varys.

[Bael's Bastard]

A significant part of Aegon's plan (or the plan he is a piece of) is being presented as the son of Rhaegar Targaryen. It may yet fail, but I suspect it has a significantly greater chance of gaining supporters in Westeros than someone openly trying to take the throne as a Blackfyre. Rhaegar is the prince so many had such high hopes for. It could be quite tempting for houses to get on board with him, whether they buy him as Rhaegar's son or not. And I suspect the common folk will believe it is truly him as soon as word of him starts to spread, and that they will think of him as their king however long he lasts.

[Mithras]

What I found most intriguing was the Fourth Blackfyre Rebellion (236 AC) - Daemon III Blackfyre's plan was to invade Massey's Hook with an army....sort of in the *northern Stormlands* (well, southern Crownlands)....and his *functioinal plan* was to win some quick victories on mainland Westeros to prove himself, then *entirely depend* on the hope that this would make many major noble Houses switch to his side. It didn't: Daemon I had been dead for 40 years, the Blackfyres themselves were just foreign mercenaries at this point, no one had any real attachment to them. Yes they could grab a few castles but anything remotely prolonged was beyond them.

Wink wink, nudge nudge, Young Griff's *entire* plan?

But if you think about it.....Tyrion basically duped Young Griff into launching an immediate invasion of the Stormlands to prove himself. They made a big deal about how they trained Young Griff all of his life to be well-educated, have martial skills (maybe Viserys III wouldn't have been quite so bad if they'd given him the attention Young Griff had?...he'd still be the Mad King's son, but he wouldn't be as bitter/crazy....)

The point is that Tyrion is a student of history and knows damn well how and why the Fourth Blackfyre Rebellion failed. Young Griff *should* know this, but he's too worried about Daenerys outshining him -- that, and sort of a point is that Young Griff may be book-smart but lacks real life experience.

So Tyrion basically duped him into repeating the Fourth Blackfyre Rebellion, to "impress people into allying with him", knowing damn well that the fourth rebellion failed because you need internal allies *before* you invade.

No, Tyrion hoped to return with him and he would not do that unless he thought of a chance of success. Besides, he wanted to seperate Dany and Aegon because together they would be too strong and proud that they would not care Tyrion.

I also think that fAegon already has internal support before his invasion. We hear some friends in the Reach but I think Dorne declared for him long time ago and Lemore is Mellario of Norvos. She is raising Aegon as a good partner for her precious daughter.

[TheButcherCrow]

Tyrion was supposed to be going with him until he got kidnapped by Jorah. Why would he want to travel with an army he intended to lose? No, Tyrion saw the political realities of Westeros, he knew his sister would have buggered things well up and he wanted to return to KL with several thousand armed men.

[Lord Varys]

Tyrion's motivations aren't addressed in ADwD. It's a tricky thing. I guess it's a combination of reasons:

1. Spoiling Varys and Illyrio's plans by robbing Aegon of Dany's dragons.

2. Hurting Cersei by seating some guy on the Iron Throne who could be Rhaegar's son.

3. Uncertainly whether backing Daenerys would be a great idea. He may suspect that she's more Aerys' daughter than Rhaegar's sister. Later he has no other option than to go down this road when Jorah captures him, of course.

The political advice in itself was very sound, and Tyrion didn't even know/couldn't foresee the rise of the Faith, and the Ironborn attacks on the Reach, so Aegon may have the swiftest victory ever. And he better has, if you ask me, or this second Dance thing is never going to happen...

That said, Tyrion's conversation with Aegon makes little sense at the point in the book where it's place. His whole speech talks about going west instead of east, when the plan at this particular point was only to go to Volantis to await Daenerys there, not to go to Meereen to meet her there. This idea comes up later, after Tyrion's abduction.

The conversation should have gone this way:

Tyrion: 'You should go west instead of east.'

Aegon: 'Wait a minute, we are going to Volantis, you little dwarf. That's in the south, not the east, if you can read a map. No one ever said we wanted to go to Slaver's Bay! I'm not going to my aunt as a beggar, she'll come to us in Volantis (as a beggar). And, no, I'm most certainly not going to run to Westeros if three dragons are on their way to me right now.'

Later on, when it's clear that Dany's not coming, going to Westeros is a sound option. And in the end they do this due to Connington's greyscale infection, not because of Aegon's little speech.

[Mithras]

AS I said, the only sensible motivation of Tyrion at that point might be that he wants to seperate Aegon and Dany. He might also have thought of himself like a wedding gift to Dany.

[The Dragon Demands]

Unresolved questions:

1 - Just what was Tyrion's intention in encouraging Aegon VI to invade immediately, without Daenerys? He even points out in the same conversation that Aegon VI can't trust anyone, not even Tyrion...even as Tyrion is encouraging his actions.

2 - Varys might not have approved of such an early attack.

3 - IS Aegon VI who he says he is? Or the scion of the Blackfyre female line, plus other Targaryen exiles? Given that the Blackfyres are a branch of the Targaryens, would people really care?

4 - You raise the valid point about internal allies...apparently, from the early preview chapters of TWoW, much discussion will revolved around the Dornish trying to figure out whether or not they should ally with Aegon VI - to the point that Arianne personally gets dispatched to meet with him.

5 - DID the Golden Company succeed in taking Storm's End? I get the impression that even if they did, the castle is so infamously strong that forcing a siege would cost them a *massive* number of men - leading to the question of whether the prestige of this was worth it. The Stormlands were denuded of manpower, it wasn't exactly a major tactical victory.

6 - The Lannisters are strategically screwed at this point, as Kevan explains in the book 5 epilogue, but what about their allies as a whole?

• The Tyrells are being raided by the ironborn, yes, but they had not yet deployed their full strength against them - the ironborn can harass the coasts but the Tyrells have the clear manpower advantage on the mainland. Even Victarion, commander of the Iron Fleet, thinks that once they fully mobilize the Tyrells will be able to force them out of all of their recent conquests.
• Varys took care of Kevan and Pycelle, to ensure that the only major Lannister leader in KL is Cersei and that she suspects the Tyrells did it.
• The main Lannister army was either around KL or at Riverrun-Raventree Hall with Jaime.
• The current main Tyrell field army wouldn't leave KL because of Margaery's imprisonment.
• They can't hire sellswords, and the economic collapse that Cersei caused continues.
• The Vale is about to turn on the Lannister-allied Boltons, who are already facing trouble from the alliance of Stannis and surviving Stark bannermen.
• Dorne is just champing at the bit to turn on the Lannisters, hoping to side with Aegon VI or Daenerys, whoever comes first.
• The Riverlands are a burned out husk and the Freys sent half of their army north to help secure Bolton rule; with 2,000 men at the Twins they can't even hold the Riverlands alone very effectively, much less help others.

Let's see now:

1. The Westerlands/Crownlands - almost a spent force after years of rebellion, and they don't want to leave KL because then it would be unguarded. Other army group was on the Red Fork but may be heading back.
2. The Boltons/North - having enough trouble fighting Stannis, Stark loyalists, ironborn, and wildling invasion. They can't send help to KL. Plus the Vale is about to invade...
3. The Vale - about to turn on the Lannisters by attacking the Boltons...strong and fresh armies.
4. Dorne - practically already turned on the Lannisters, but Aegon VI or Daenerys? Strong and fresh armies, untouched by the war so far.
5. The Stormlands - all of their manpower was either killed at the Blackwater or went north with Stannis, Or those who bent the knee are filed under "Lannister" and Kevan still complains they don't have enough men.
6. Iron Islands - facing their own civil war looming on the horizon, but Euron's plan is to marry Daenerys, not ally with Aegon VI.
7. The Tyrells, who still have a large army and are mustering more, currently attacked by the ironborn but yet to muster their full strength against them.
   
   ...the Tyrells are the real wild card here: will they ditch the Lannisters at this point? Or hang on to power because Margaery is still Tommen's queen, not Aegon VI? I imagine that whoever the Tyrells choose, the Greyjoy will side with the other.
   
   Crud....why DID Tyrion encourage Aegon VI to attack early? Because he honestly thought it would succeed? Or to foul up either Aegon VI or Daenerys?

[Lord Annaly]

On Daemon III:

If the Third Blackfyre Rebellion was a major war, eventually leading to the death of Maekar I at Starpike - I imagine that Maekar defeated Bittersteel and the other pretender, and then decided to finally put an end to those cursed Peakes who, most likely, also rose against the Iron Throne during the Third Rebellion - it's quite likely people could simply no longer stomach the Blackfyres four years later.

It seems that "those cursed Peakes" were not finally put to an end as the current Lord Titus is married to Margot Lannister.

Though with the number of Peakes in the present Golden Company it may be that the main branch was exiled and some lowly cousin who did not rebel but sided with the Crown was awarded the lordship.