Renly was about to defeat Stannis, right?

[Trigger Warning]

Your only considering military strength not politics. Once Cersei and her bastard children are dead then there is no reason to fight for them, the Tyrells would not have had any reason to join in.

Well they would because Stannis as king puts the Florents in the king's favour and Stannis may have intentions to pay the Tyrells back for backing Renly further down the line. Better to remove him here and now whilst your levies are in the field.

[Ingelheim]

I'm not too sure. Once he takes KL, he's in a much better position and has the advantage of being behind the walls even if the numbers are fewer.

But to a certain point, you can't defend a city already destroyed with 5,000 men (or even less, if Stannis had won) against the Lannister and Tyrell forces combined. Eventually, he would have died.

Your only considering military strength not politics. Once Cersei and her bastard children are dead then there is no reason to fight for them, the Tyrells would not have had any reason to join in.

How is Tommen dead, if he is NOT in the city? The show made it that way, not the books. Stannis would have had Cersei in his power (Tyrion is dead, either by Moore or the battle itself). Also, why would the Tyrells NOT fight Stannis? His cause was lost when he lost the Reach armies.

We all know Stannis guys. He wouldn't have surrendered. If Tywin and Mace had been 2-3 days late to the battle, Stannis would be dead by now.

Tommen was already hidden away, hence the Lannister cause was not done.

Also, they could have installed someone else not related to the Baratheon line on the Throne, the Tyrells seem to want anyone but Stannis.

This.

[HexMachina]

myrcella is also not in the city

[GallowsKnight]

Actually Tommen and Myrcella are removed during Clash of Kings. Tommen is sent by Cersei and Myrcella by Tyrion. But if Stannis had struck earlier and if he'd been successful he might have had all three in hand.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Actually Tommen and Myrcella are removed during Clash of Kings. Tommen is sent by Cersei and Myrcella by Tyrion. But if Stannis had struck earlier and if he'd been successful he might have had all three in hand.

If he had struck earlier, he'd be attacking with around 5k men and with Tywin close enough to intervene. He needed to try and win the support of the Lords of the Stromlands and Reach before he could strike.

[GallowsKnight]

If he had struck earlier, he'd be attacking with around 5k men and with Tywin close enough to intervene. He needed to try and win the support of the Lords of the Stromlands and Reach before he could strike.

I'm not saying that it would be the best move, just that he would have all the false heirs in hand.

As for the attack there's pros and cons to it:

He has 200 ships, a mixture of royal navy, bannermen, sellsails, pirates and commandeered vessels. He has 3000 bannermen and 2000 sellswords.

However Kingslanding has 2000 goldcloaks not 8000, as Joffrey hasn't increased them. It has 300 redcloaks before Tyrion sends them away, but no Mountain Clans. It has ~50 ships plus King Robert's Warhammer. It doesn't have the 3 big trebutchets, the wildfire or the chain.

All in all I think he could take the City.

You're right that Tywin is able to attack the city, as well as Renly's coming up the Roseroad. But Stannis would still have one to two animated shadows up his/Melisandre's sleeve. He can use them on Renly or Tywin if they besiege the city.

The other thing is that if Tywin moves from Harrenhal, Robb Stark might pursue him. The whole problem Robb had was he couldn't assault Harrenhal, but couldn't wait in Riverrun either.

[Universal Sword Donor]

I'm not saying that it would be the best move, just that he would have all the false heirs in hand.

As for the attack there's pros and cons to it:

He has 200 ships, a mixture of royal navy, bannermen, sellsails, pirates and commandeered vessels. He has 3000 bannermen and 2000 sellswords.

However Kingslanding has 2000 goldcloaks not 8000, as Joffrey hasn't increased them. It has 300 redcloaks before Tyrion sends them away, but no Mountain Clans. It has ~50 ships plus King Robert's Warhammer. It doesn't have the 3 big trebutchets, the wildfire or the chain.

All in all I think he could take the City.

You're right that Tywin is able to attack the city, as well as Renly's coming up the Roseroad. But Stannis would still have one to two animated shadows up his/Melisandre's sleeve. He can use them on Renly or Tywin if they besiege the city.

The other thing is that if Tywin moves from Harrenhal, Robb Stark might pursue him. The whole problem Robb had was he couldn't assault Harrenhal, but couldn't wait in Riverrun either.

It's explicitly noted by Tyrion and Bywater that the GCs have 6,000 men of varying quality. The Mountain Clans were still in the city until Stannis gets to the Kingswood. Additionally there are 800 mercenaries hired by Bronn and about ~300 knights and men-at-arms in KL.

Stannis is clearly a better commander than anyone in the capital, but I don't really like the numbers game here. Tywin likes to say a defender on the walls is worth ten below. If Stannis wants to make some siege weapons, that just gives KL time to create some as well.

[joluoto2]

Yes, Renly knew Stannis needed to die for him to become king, just as Robert's and Cersei's children had to die (Renly didn't know they weren't Robert before the confrontation with Stannis. And it's doubtful he believed what Stannis words). They were in the way.

[Erkan12]

Here is the percentage ; %97.2 Renly's victory

[Ceiteach]

Stannis fans are so funny. He was about to get completely crushed. Why else would Melisandre have sent the shadow creature to do his work for him? Dirty tactics for such a honorable commander.

[Winterfell is Burning]

Stannis fans are so funny. He was about to get completely crushed. Why else would Melisandre have sent the shadow creature to do his work for him? Dirty tactics for such a honorable commander.

Why is a shadowbaby a less honorable tactic than using a dragon to kill an entire army, or use a warg to take control of an animal and kill your opponent or find out information you wouldn't ordinarily have?

And of course without Melisandre's vision, Stannis doesn't move against Renly, so it's a non-issue.

[Fat Mac]

Why is a shadowbaby a less honorable tactic than using a dragon to kill an entire army, or use a warg to take control of an animal and kill your opponent or find out information you wouldn't ordinarily have?

And of course without Melisandre's vision, Stannis doesn't move against Renly, so it's a non-issue.

Yep, which is why the "who would win the battle" argument is moot. Stannis moved on SE when there was only two possible options. Option one is Renly surrenders, no shadowbaby needed. Option two is Renly doesn't surrender, dies, and Stannis takes his forces. Renly's 20,000 was NEVER going to fight Stannis' 5,000

[Talleyrand]

Yep, which is why the "who would win the battle" argument is moot. Stannis moved on SE when there was only two possible options. Option one is Renly surrenders, no shadowbaby needed. Option two is Renly doesn't surrender, dies, and Stannis takes his forces. Renly's 20,000 was NEVER going to fight Stannis' 5,000

What if Mel suffers from spontaneous combustion (or an aneurysm) at some point between the parley and the birthing?

[GallowsKnight]

It's explicitly noted by Tyrion and Bywater that the GCs have 6,000 men of varying quality. The Mountain Clans were still in the city until Stannis gets to the Kingswood. Additionally there are 800 mercenaries hired by Bronn and about ~300 knights and men-at-arms in KL.

Stannis is clearly a better commander than anyone in the capital, but I don't really like the numbers game here. Tywin likes to say a defender on the walls is worth ten below. If Stannis wants to make some siege weapons, that just gives KL time to create some as well.

I think I wasn't clear in my post. I'm suggesting Stannis attacks before Tyrion arrives in the capital. Basically as soon as he has Salladhor Saan and the mercenaries from Myr. Before Tyrion has time to arrive let alone prepare.

The Goldcloaks were only increased in number during ACOK by Joffrey, initially they were 2000. Cersei had 300 redcloaks (which Tyrion sent to Riverrun). The Clansmen were obviously absent, and the large number of mercenaries hadn't be organised. The Lannister forces are somewhere between 2300-3000 men before Tyrion arrives. Plus 50 ships including the huge King Robert's Warhammer.

Stannis has 3000 bannermen and 2000 mercenies. A fleet of some 200 ships.

A defender on a wall is worth more. But Kingslanding is not a castle. It's a city. City walls are lower, longer and generally weaker. Maegors Holdfast would be the tough egg to crack, but that's not going to hold all of the Lannister forces.

Stannis has siege engines. His ships have scorpions and catapults. The Mudgate is well within range. Also ships can transport prepared weapons such as rams. Row boats can be turned into mantlets very easily. The walls are low enough grappling hooks and ladders can be used.

Without the Trebutchets, the Wildfire and Chain. Stannis' forces can easily disembark and deploy.

I'm not saying it's a 100% certain thing. But I think he had a good chance.

Edit: On top of Stannis' forces there are the ~20k oarsmen, pirates and ships crew mentioned earlier in the thread. Now these guys are obviously not very useful in a pitched open battle, having no training for that and probably only being armed with knives, boarding axes etc. But these guys can be used to carry siege weaponry, help wounded, undermine, collect arrows and any other tasks useful for besiegers.

Once proper troops open a hole in any defence, these guys can poor in after them.

[Lady Flandrensis]

It's not "just numbers". It's the quality of the troops too. Renly had the elite forces of the Reach and the Stormlands, all mounted and well equipped. Stannis had a ragtag bunch with barely any cavalry, and he had the Storm's End defenders at his back which made for a horrible position tactically. Sure, nothing is 100% certain, but Stannis winning this would've been extremely unlikely.

Exactly. That's why he had to cheat to win, and kill his own brother in a most cowardly way.

[Fat Mac]

What if Mel suffers from spontaneous combustion (or an aneurysm) at some point between the parley and the birthing?

Or space aliens could have come down and destroyed all of them :D

Exactly. That's why he had to cheat to win, and kill his own brother in a most cowardly way.

:bs:

[Minsc]

Yep, which is why the "who would win the battle" argument is moot. Stannis moved on SE when there was only two possible options. Option one is Renly surrenders, no shadowbaby needed. Option two is Renly doesn't surrender, dies, and Stannis takes his forces. Renly's 20,000 was NEVER going to fight Stannis' 5,000

Renly could have just pulled a Stannis and had his men attack while Stannis is unready.

[Universal Sword Donor]

I think I wasn't clear in my post. I'm suggesting Stannis attacks before Tyrion arrives in the capital. Basically as soon as he has Salladhor Saan and the mercenaries from Myr. Before Tyrion has time to arrive let alone prepare.

The Goldcloaks were only increased in number during ACOK by Joffrey, initially they were 2000. Cersei had 300 redcloaks (which Tyrion sent to Riverrun). The Clansmen were obviously absent, and the large number of mercenaries hadn't be organised. The Lannister forces are somewhere between 2300-3000 men before Tyrion arrives. Plus 50 ships including the huge King Robert's Warhammer.

Stannis has 3000 bannermen and 2000 mercenies. A fleet of some 200 ships.

A defender on a wall is worth more. But Kingslanding is not a castle. It's a city. City walls are lower, longer and generally weaker. Maegors Holdfast would be the tough egg to crack, but that's not going to hold all of the Lannister forces.

Stannis has siege engines. His ships have scorpions and catapults. The Mudgate is well within range. Also ships can transport prepared weapons such as rams. Row boats can be turned into mantlets very easily. The walls are low enough grappling hooks and ladders can be used.

Without the Trebutchets, the Wildfire and Chain. Stannis' forces can easily disembark and deploy.

I'm not saying it's a 100% certain thing. But I think he had a good chance.

Edit: On top of Stannis' forces there are the ~20k oarsmen, pirates and ships crew mentioned earlier in the thread. Now these guys are obviously not very useful in a pitched open battle, having no training for that and probably only being armed with knives, boarding axes etc. But these guys can be used to carry siege weaponry, help wounded, undermine, collect arrows and any other tasks useful for besiegers.

Once proper troops open a hole in any defence, these guys can poor in after them.

Ah ok. That makes a bit more sense. Before Tyrion was there, the city was definitely much more ripe for the taking.

[Winterfell is Burning]

Exactly. That's why he had to cheat to win, and kill his own brother in a most cowardly way.

:bs:

Again, answer me why a shadowbaby is less honorable of a tactic than using a dragon to murder thousands, one of them being Renly. Or less honorable than warg into a direwolf and use it to kill him.

[Haus of Targaryen]

Im just disappointed still that they couldn't see the bigger picture and come together w/ the Northmen/Rivermen to defeat the Lannisters. After that Robb and his people could've went home and then Renly and Stannis would then be left to kill each other in peace #Dance of the Stags. Literally just read the Catelyn chapter in aCoK where they have the parlay, it was redic and my lady was the only one making sense