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R+L=J v.146


Ygrain

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Yeah, and when the show producers say they got the right answer, that just means they passed the test.

GRRM wanted to know if they had read the books carefully, and whatever answer they gave was "right" in the sense that it showed that they had (or, that they had run a Google search for "who is Jon Snow's mother"). That does not mean that they correctly identified Jon's mother--just that they satisfied GRRM that they had picked up in the R+L=J clues (or red herrings, as the case may be).

How do you gather they are being lied to by Martin?

In the books, the 'common' reader will yield that Jon's Mother is either Wylla, Ashara, or the FMD.

Tell me in your profound, denying RLJ-ways, that Martin will risk D&D going with the narrative that Jon's parents is Ned + Wylla/Ashara/FMD. People really love to pull RLJ down, that's fine. But to poke on Martin's writings and his careful clues, hints and foreshadowing, like they have no purpose is ridiculous.

Give Martin credit.

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Regarding a possible Rhaegar/Lyanna wedding, if it was important to Lyanna, I think she would have mentioned it to Ned. That means that either it didn't happen or Ned thinks any kind of polygamous marriage would be illegal/invalid.

If you add in the fact that we learned from Dance With Dragons, that Connington believes that Rhaegar only ever married Elia (and that it is only possible for Aegon to take one wife), then the most logical conclusion is that Rhaegar and Lyanna never went through such a ceremony.

When one is dying it is possible that it is important to focus the mind on what is really important. Not actually having died yet, I admit this is speculation on my part, but I think whatever is the most important thing Lyanna wants to communicate to Ned in the time remaining her is what she is going to talk about. In this case, I'd bet it is on the safety of her child. I know we don't know if she really has a child, but still this is my bet. Whatever she needs to talk to her brother about after that, I'm sure those things would also be of concern to say before she dies. Or perhaps the fever takes her and she speaks to him of nothing important until her last breath. Somewhere in there she could have told Ned she married Rhaegar, if she did, but it wouldn't be the thing I would say first. Getting Ned to pledge to raise my son as his own and safeguard his safety would. What Ned thinks about the validity of a polygamous marriage, I have no idea, but it is hardly the point. What The Targaryens thought was possible, specifically what Rhaegar thought was possible, is the point when we asked if such a marriage took place.

Connington and Rhaegar are separated for quite some time. It is highly unlikely he would be aware of a marriage that takes place after Lyanna and Rhaegar go into hiding, and Lord Jon is in exile by the time Rhaegar returns to King's Landing. Why we would expect Jon to know about it is something I don't quite understand. So, I don't think we can jump to your conclusion that it didn't happen.

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How do you gather they are being lied to by Martin?

In the books, the 'common' reader will yield that Jon's Mother is either Wylla, Ashara, or the FMD.

Tell me in your profound, denying RLJ-ways, that Martin will risk D&D going with the narrative that Jon's parents is Ned + Wylla/Ashara/FMD. People really love to pull RLJ down, that's fine. But to poke on Martin's writings and his careful clues, hints and foreshadowing, like they have no purpose is ridiculous.

Give Martin credit.

Are you insinuating that by "common", a reader is less intelligent to believe a different theory? From what I've seen, Twinslayer is an intelligent person and puts together thoughtful posts based on his/her reading experience.

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How do you gather they are being lied to by Martin?

In the books, the 'common' reader will yield that Jon's Mother is either Wylla, Ashara, or the FMD.

Tell me in your profound, denying RLJ-ways, that Martin will risk D&D going with the narrative that Jon's parents is Ned + Wylla/Ashara/FMD. People really love to pull RLJ down, that's fine. But to poke on Martin's writings and his careful clues, hints and foreshadowing, like they have no purpose is ridiculous.

Give Martin credit.

I don't think GRRM lied to the show producers. I think he tested them to see if they had read the books closely and whatever answer they gave him satisfied them that they had. If a Professor assigns a student to write an essay on the reasons for the Great War, the wrong answer would be "Princip shot Archduke Franz Ferdinand." But the "right" answer could be several other things. A professor might accept an answer as "right" if it cited "German aggression" or she might accept an answer as "right" if it said that England and France disrupted the balance of power during the Scramble for Africa in a way that forced Gemany's hand -- as long as the answer was well thought-out.

I also think GRRM has been clear that the show and the books are different. So even if the show decides that R+L=J, that does not mean that R+L=J in the books. And vice-versa.

But that is all I am going to say about he show due to the prohibition on show spoilers in this General forum.

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Are you insinuating that by "common", a reader is less intelligent to believe a different theory? From what I've seen, Twinslayer is an intelligent person and puts together thoughtful posts based on his/her reading experience.

No, I like a lot of Twinslayer's posts, even if majority are not giving credence or support of RLJ. But that's what's great about R+L=J thread, we discuss things. What I meant by 'common' is mostly first readers. If you caught RLJ in you first read, then more power to you. But I'm responding to a non believer of the RLJ, so that's debatable.

I don't think GRRM lied to the show producers. I think he tested them to see if they had read the books closely and whatever answer they gave him satisfied them that they had. If a Professor assigns a student to write an essay on the reasons for the Great War, the wrong answer would be "Princip shot Archduke Franz Ferdinand." But the "right" answer could be several other things. A professor might accept an answer as "right" if it cited "German aggression" or she might accept an answer as "right" if it said that England and France disrupted the balance of power during the Scramble for Africa in a way that forced Gemany's hand -- as long as the answer was well thought-out.

I also think GRRM has been clear that the show and the books are different. So even if the show decides that R+L=J, that does not mean that R+L=J in the books. And vice-versa.

But that is all I am going to say about he show due to the prohibition on show spoilers in this General forum.

Well, that's up to Martin, it's his story, and if he changes midstream and make the clues, hints and foreshadowing to point away from RLJ in the end, then that's how it will be in the story. As an objective reader, I would have to accept that.

Likewise and equally, I also believe what he openly said in public many times, that he will not change midstream (referring to his butler and chamber maid analogy) even if fans have gotten things right.

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When one is dying it is possible that it is important to focus the mind on what is really important. Not actually having died yet, I admit this is speculation on my part, but I think whatever is the most important thing Lyanna wants to communicate to Ned in the time remaining her is what she is going to talk about. In this case, I'd bet it is on the safety of her child. I know we don't know if she really has a child, but still this is my bet. Whatever she needs to talk to her brother about after that, I'm sure those things would also be of concern to say before she dies. Or perhaps the fever takes her and she speaks to him of nothing important until her last breath. Somewhere in there she could have told Ned she married Rhaegar, if she did, but it wouldn't be the thing I would say first. Getting Ned to pledge to raise my son as his own and safeguard his safety would. What Ned thinks about the validity of a polygamous marriage, I have no idea, but it is hardly the point. What The Targaryens thought was possible, specifically what Rhaegar thought was possible, is the point when we asked if such a marriage took place.

Connington and Rhaegar are separated for quite some time. It is highly unlikely he would be aware of a marriage that takes place after Lyanna and Rhaegar go into hiding, and Lord Jon is in exile by the time Rhaegar returns to King's Landing. Why we would expect Jon to know about it is something I don't quite understand. So, I don't think we can jump to your conclusion that it didn't happen.

On the Lyanna point, I agree that when you are dying you focus on what is important. But if we infer that she did not tell Ned about a polygamous "marriage," then we have to infer that a polygamous marriage was not important to Lyanna. That is consistent with the idea that, if she did run away with Rhaegar willingly, she didn't care about getting married (to a man who already had a wife and children).

Regarding Connington, this requires some careful reading. Jaime says he was the "next best thing" to Rhaegar. Baristan says he was "dear" to Rhaegar. The World book lists Rhaegar's supporters at Court as "Lord Jon Connington, Ser Myles Mooten of Maidenpool, and Ser Richard Lonmouth." Then it says that that "With the coming of the new year, the crown prince had taken to the road with half a dozen of his closest friends and confidants, on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the Riverlands. Not ten leagues,from Harrenhal, Rhaegar fell upon Lyanna Stark of Winterfell, and carried her off..."

It seems pretty clear that Connington was with Rhaegar when Rhaegar grabbed Lyanna, and if there was a polygamous "marriage," Connington would have known about it.

Are you insinuating that by "common", a reader is less intelligent to believe a different theory? From what I've seen, Twinslayer is an intelligent person and puts together thoughtful posts based on his/her reading experience.

Thank you.

No, I like a lot of Twinslayer's posts, even if majority are not giving credence or support of RLJ. But that's what's great about R+L=J thread, we discuss things. What I meant by 'common' is mostly first readers. If you caught RLJ in you first read, then more power to you. But I'm responding to a non believer of the RLJ, so that's debatable.

Well, that's up to Martin, it's his story, and if he changes midstream and make the clues, hints and foreshadowing to point away from RLJ in the end, then that's how it will be in the story. As an objective reader, I would have to accept that.

Likewise and equally, I also believe what he openly said in public many times, that he will not change midstream (referring to his butler and chamber maid analogy) even if fans have gotten things right.

Thank you, also. I enjoy your posts as well.

As for GRRM changing midstream, he has changed some small things along the way (like the triggers for Robert's Rebellion). But I am not suggesting that he originally intended that R+L=J but he might change his mind. I am suggesting that, while R+L=J is one possibility, it might be a red herring, since every single clue about Jon's parentage is deliberately ambiguous.

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Thank you, also. I enjoy your posts as well.

As for GRRM changing midstream, he has changed some small things along the way (like the triggers for Robert's Rebellion). But I am not suggesting that he originally intended that R+L=J but he might change his mind. I am suggesting that, while R+L=J is one possibility, it might be a red herring, since every single clue about Jon's parentage is deliberately ambiguous.

That's what I think, too. When I read mystery novels, you can usually tell who the author is trying to lead the reader to think is the culprit. The fact that so many people are fervent believers, makes me feel like the answer is too obvious, and is in fact a red herring. I mean, wouldn't your minds be blown if it turned out the whole time the answer was actually Ned and Wylla?

Same things happen on TV. I know she show is verboten, but those fans are being led the same way. I feel like with all the surprises and shocks we've been dealt so far in the series, Martin won't disappoint with this one.

As for a "latest theory" others were asking about, I'm working on it as I plow through the books again. Be happy to share thoughts based on the text as I read, but my understanding from the OP is that this thread is only for debating whether R+L=J is true or false.

I feel like I got a friendlier reception when I first joined the forum and hung out here when I agreed with you guys ;)

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Cannot see how this is proof of anything other than Jon's struggle to come to terms with his own actions and feelings towards Ygritte and his ideas and feelings about his father about his de facto father (Ned)--in short, Jon's psychological development and growing up.

You start the post with assumptions, not conclusions, about Rhaegar's guilt and doubt and then superimpose those assumptions onto Jon's narrative.

I don't assert that Rhaegar could NOT have felt all sorts of things--about Lyanna, about Elia, about anyone else--but the excerpts you quote aren't evidence of that. And they certainly don't prove Jon's legitimacy.

If anything, the quote Rhaenys_Targaryen gives above is evidence of Jon's being a bastard--and thought of as such by Ned.

My pardons however I feel the subject is over-thought

Lyana n Rhaegar couldn't be found for months of Roberts rebellion

Eddard dreamt three kingsguard at Tower of Joy

Eddard returns from Tower of joy now has Jon

Come on guys! The connection is so simple to see!

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Convincing.. But then why thinking about bastards so quickly after visiting Jon?

It's not necessarily a contradiction for Jon to be both a bastard and trueborn. If Jon is actually trueborn but has been raised as a bastard his whole life, which is he?

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My pardons however I feel the subject is over-thought

Lyana n Rhaegar couldn't be found for months of Roberts rebellion

Eddard dreamt three kingsguard at Tower of Joy

Eddard returns from Tower of joy now has Jon

Come on guys! The connection is so simple to see!

Greetings! Glad I'm not only the new poster :) I agree, the writing is simple once reading between parallels. The proof I know is from Dany's psychosis vision. She saw the blue rose in the ice wall. That determines Jon is Song of Ice and Fire because Rhaegar is fire (Targaryen). I will find the text to submit my canon:

Her silver was trotting through the grass, to a darkling stream beneath a sea of stars. A corpse stood at the prow of a ship, eyes bright in his dead face, grey lips smiling sadly. A blue flower grew from a chink in a wall of ice, and filled the air with sweetness. . . . mother of dragons, bride of fire.

This shows to me Dany is bride of fire and Jon is blue rose. She is balanced by male imagery, Jon by feminine- perfect skale, like the Song of Ice and Fire.

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Hi, Shiny!! welcome- in response to Ice Fire's proof, Sly Wren is correct below:

Essentially, nothing is canon, unless it's explicitly stated in the books. I believe Ran even confirmed that the books trump SSMs, so those can only really be considered "semi-canon". The whole thing about polygamous marriage, is that it hasn't happened in 200 years. Also, something to consider: if Lyanna was so concerned about Robert staying to one bed, why on earth would she marry an already married man?

Raeghar prove his love to Lyana by marrying her underneath the weirwood faces

They elope to the mountains of Dorne made Jon right in time Aerys was able to name Jon heir before he died

Kingsguard protection for kings not bastards

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Raeghar prove his love to Lyana by marrying her underneath the weirwood faces

They elope to the mountains of Dorne made Jon right in time Aerys was able to name Jon heir before he died

Kingsguard protection for kings not bastards

Hi LCR,

Thanks for responding. We were discussing in the last thread that the marriage under the Weirwood didn't actually happen in the text, though some people may disagree. It wasn't explicitly written that this happened, neither was the elopement, this is all speculative.

So I'm confused, Aerys is naming Jon the heir? Why do you think this? It was my understanding that Aerys had already disinherited Rhaegar and named Viserys heir. I don't think Aerys and Rhaegar were talking. But please excuse me if I misunderstood what you meant.

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Raeghar prove his love to Lyana by marrying her underneath the weirwood faces

They elope to the mountains of Dorne made Jon right in time Aerys was able to name Jon heir before he died

Kingsguard protection for kings not bastards

Agree. Howland Reed was a high sexton who marries the loves on the Faces Island. This is why he helped Lyanna give birth before she died. It's proofed over and over because she was dead in her white wedding dress, and she was bloody. Women die when they have babies a lot in the books when they say bed of blood.

Holland Reed is now the last alive one, and through his children, they will communicate that Jon is the hair of Westeros.

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"Jon wasn't allowed to fight against Joffrey, as bastards are not allowed to damage young princes.. Joffrey is a bastard, we know.. Which would make this a hint that Jon is a prince (and thus trueborn?)..?"



I love this! It would make for some pretty amazing foreshadowing! I'm only on my second read through so the parallels and details are only jumping out at me this time around. This Fandom is fast surpassing all others for me! I believe there is some 'historical' evidence that Targs can be polygamous based on Aegon the conquerer taking both his sisters as wives? The simple fact that they are incestuous by design shows them to be a law unto themselves anyway.



I've gotten the impression rereading GoT at the moment that the 'Bastard' tag is part of the camouflage rather than Ned's belief. He seems to actually have a healthy respect for Rhaegar and believes him more honourable than Robert in the Fathering Bastards way at least. I'm curious as to how much time Ned and Lyanna had in the Tower of Joy before she passed and how much she could have told him? The roses in her room speaks more of an elopement than an abduction to me for sure. Is there any evidence in the text that gives us an idea how much she could have told him in the time they were together and what Reed may know? I can't remember if he is still alive?


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Greetings! Glad I'm not only the new poster :) I agree, the writing is simple once reading between parallels. The proof I know is from Dany's psychosis vision. She saw the blue rose in the ice wall. That determines Jon is Song of Ice and Fire because Rhaegar is fire (Targaryen). I will find the text to submit my canon:

This shows to me Dany is bride of fire and Jon is blue rose. She is balanced by male imagery, Jon by feminine- perfect skale, like the Song of Ice and Fire.

Well, who is the corpse and what's it doing there with those two?

It's a little weird, though, that Jon (male) would be symbolized by something feminine like a flower.

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It's not necessarily a contradiction for Jon to be both a bastard and trueborn. If Jon is actually trueborn but has been raised as a bastard his whole life, which is he?

That's sort of what I have taken from that passage. To me, it seems like Ned is sad at how bastards are treated, how Jon is treated, which doesn't necessarily point to Jon actually being a bastard. Even if Ned wanted to tell Jon the truth (which I think he did), he would never have been able to claim his true parentage

That's what I think, too. When I read mystery novels, you can usually tell who the author is trying to lead the reader to think is the culprit. The fact that so many people are fervent believers, makes me feel like the answer is too obvious, and is in fact a red herring. I mean, wouldn't your minds be blown if it turned out the whole time the answer was actually Ned and Wylla?

My mind would be blown, hehe. If that was the answer, I would be disappointed (why the secrecy? Why the red herrings for the reader?), but I would be genuinely surprised. I am a fervent believer in RLJ, but if the answer was something else and that something else made sense, I think I would be happy to be surprised.

(No, probably not. I was SO EXCITED when I "figured it out". I would be crushed I was wrong, that all of this analysis RLJ folks have done was wrong. But with time....!)

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My Lord father believed that no man could tell a lie in front of a heart tree, The old gods know when men are lying.---Jon aCoK page 185



To have a polygamous marriage in front of a heart tree, Lyanna must believe that the old gods permit polygamy and the old gods must permit polygamy.



The heart tree solution gets tossed out because a tree could not object to it and the marriages performed in front of a heart tree are considered valid.


Take away the power of the heart tree and the old gods and you take away the validity of the marriage.



For a marriage in front of a heart tree or a marriage in front of a septon.... we need a belief structure that permits polygamy. We do not have one.

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Ah--you were making a much narrower point than I saw--sorry.

I agree the scene could be compartmentalized as you say--but given how Lyanna and Jon both come up in the scene, how it cuts Ned to the heart to see this girl with her baby, even how the girl seems to long for Robert (maybe an argument for Lyanna's loving Rhaegar)--the scene seems to lump it all together in Ned's head. Really seems that he sees Jon as a bastard.

That being said--Martin has left himself wiggle room on whether or not Jon is a bastard, regardless of Ned's perception. Lyanna could have been too sick to fully explain. Could have been a polygamous marriage that Ned doesn't see as legit--etc. (These are clearly just hypotheticals on my part--no evidence, just guessing.)

But whether or not Ned sees Jon as a bastard (though I think he does in this scene), Martin could still have some room on whether or not Jon is a bastard. Lots of gaps to be filled--hopefully soon with good writing.

No worries :)

Interesting connection of Barra's mother longing for Robert to Lyanna and her possible feelings for Rhaegar.

There is indeed still some wiggle room, which makes me wonder whether or not Ned would have known about whether Jon was trueborn or not in the first place. If he didn't know, there won't be any hints about that specific bit in his thoughts, I think?

My best guess is that Rhaegar publicly married Lyanna without royal permission, and then his father was calling for his head long before he called for the heads of Eddard Stark and Robert Baratheon, forcing Rhaegar to disappear. Just because we don't know any of this doesn't mean it didn't happen. What we know is that Rhaegar and Lyanna did disappear and must have had a reason for that.

There is indeed no chance whatsoever that Rhaegar had his father's permission to take another wife/set his old wife aside or practice open polygamy. And without Aerys' permission he would also not have the High Septon's permission and subsequently no permission for polygamy in general, and also no authority to enforce his unique lifestyle on the Realm. Especially not since his choice of a second wife turned at least 2-3 great houses against him.

Rhaegar was done as Prince of Dragonstone and Heir Apparent to the Iron Throne the very moment he took (and married) Lyanna (if he did that). Pretty much nobody would have accepted his marriage - certainly not the Starks, the Baratheons, and their allies, and most likely also not the Martells. And we know what happens when a prince takes the wrong wife - he is done.

Other thing:

Has anyone ever done the math and considered the fact that any relationship between Rhaegar and Lyanna would actually be very inappropriate/close to Drogo-Dany by modern standards? Rhaegar was born in 259 AC, whereas Lyanna was only 16 when she died in 283 AC. Which means that she was 13-14 in the Year of the False Spring (281 AC) while Rhaegar was already a man of 21-22. One can see now how Robert came up with this whole rape idea. I'd not be surprised if Lyanna was indeed abused/raped into loving Rhaegar - just as Daenerys 'learned to love Drogo'.

But that would be Aerys dealing with Rhaegar, and Brandons reaction sure makes it sound (to me, at least) like he didn't.

Did the math, of course :). Rhaegar was 22/23 when they disappeared, Lyanna 15/16. Smaller age-gap than Dany (13) and Drogo (about 30), but still considerable..

The difference in age for Lyanna and Rhaegar, and especially Lyanna's relative youth, make me wonder whether it is possible that Lyanna idolized Rhaegar, and love of Rhaegar to Lyanna came only later..

It's not necessarily a contradiction for Jon to be both a bastard and trueborn. If Jon is actually trueborn but has been raised as a bastard his whole life, which is he?

I had been thinking out loudast night, and sure, Jon is definitely raised as a bastard. The post below is what I thought of later, with another explanatory post below.

Curious what you think about that?

But the irony part would only be half of the quote, right? Bastards are not allowed to damage young princes.. the point being that this is the reason why Jon is not allowed to train with the others. With Joffrey a bastard, the quote could be seen as a hint (not proof, but a hint in that direction) that Jon is trueborn.

[Ned has just finished meeting Barra and her mother]

Good to you, Ned thought hollowly. I will tell him, child, and I promise you, Barra shall not go wanting.

She had smiled then, a smile so tremulous and sweet that it cut the heart out of him. Riding through the rainy night, Ned saw Jon Snows face in front of him, so like a younger version of his own. If the gods frowned so on bastards, he thought dully, why did they fill men with such lusts?

Barra is the bastard.. She wasn't Robert's first bastard. Which connects to Robert's personality, perhaps?

Love is sweet, dearest Ned, but it cannot change a mans nature.

This quote comes only shortly above the first passage I quoted.

In contrast to Jon, whom Ned now compares with himself, at least in appearance. Are we supposed to see the contrast between Ned's honorable character (as Rhaegar is also described as honorable?), and Robert's way of handeling his bastards?

OR

Good to you, Ned thought hollowly. I will tell him, child, and I promise you, Barra shall not go wanting.

She had smiled then, a smile so tremulous and sweet that it cut the heart out of him. Riding through the rainy night, Ned saw Jon Snows face in front of him, so like a younger version of his own. If the gods frowned so on bastards, he thought dully, why did they fill men with such lusts?

Is it about the fact that Ned is making a promise here? With promising Barra's mother that Barra will not go wanting, as compared to Ned promising Lyanna that Jon would not go wanting? Could that have been Ned's promise/one of the promises?

Promise me, Ned. The fever had taken her strength and her voice had been faint as a whisper, but when he gave her his word, the fear had gone out of his sisters eyes. Ned remembered the way she had smiled then, how tightly her fingers had clutched his as she gave up her hold on life, the rose petals spilling from her palm, dead and black.

Ah, no, I didn't mean that the passage excludes the possibility of Jon being a bastard.. :)

I was trying to see if there was a possibility that the mentioning of first Jon, then bastards in general, could be pointing in any other direction that Jon being a bastard.. whether it could possibly tie in with Jon being trueborn..it doesn't exclude Jon from being a bastatd, certainly.

Earlier, I left out the sentence of Ned promising Barra's mother to look after her, which made me wonder how Jon and bastards in general could fit (if it could) with Jon possibly being trueborn.

But not taking that sencente into consideration when looking at the passage might have been the mistake. I think, atm, that the mentioning of Jon in that passage is because of the promise Ned now makes regarding Barra, whereas the mentioning of bastards ("if the gods frowned so...") comes due to the fact that Barra is a bastard, and that we are not supposed to connect it to Jon.

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If Rhaegar did marry Lyanna then one would expect him to marry her very publicly. After all, the whole point in a marriage is to publicly announce that you are now living together with that person. If you marry in secret you may be married 'in your heart' and 'in front of the gods' but to the public - and especially to your enemies - you still would only have a concubine. That is not the point Rhaegar would have wanted to make if he married.



And Jon Connington may actually have known that Rhaegar was married. The man strangely specifies that Prince Aegon is Rhaegar's firstborn son by Elia of Dorne when he introduces him to the officers of the Golden Company - that would not necessary if Elia had been the only wife Rhaegar ever had. Conveniently Connington also never thinks about Lyanna Stark in his two chapters so it is entirely likely that he knows who Rhaegar's 'true love' was but consciously refuses to think about her.



We don't yet know for certainty that Jon was one of Rhaegar's companions, but it is quite likely (but I expect Lewyn was not with him - Harrenhal must have had some repercussions for the Rhaegar-Martell relationship in general) - if that was the case, then Jon was either appalled/pissed by the whole Lyanna abduction thing (after all, he was in love with Rhaegar, too) and subsequently returned to KL, or he was sent back there by Rhaegar to try to convince Aerys to accept him and Lyanna back at court. Depending on if/when Rhaegar and Lyanna married, Jon may have been present at their wedding. I still think that the best explanation for Rhaegar's disappearance would be if it turned out that Aerys wanted his head, too - either for the Lyanna abduction (which he would have construed to be 'treason') or because of his public marriage to Lyanna (which could easily be considered to be treason, especially in light of the things Aerys and his Small Council believed after Harrenhal). In that light the whole trials and execution of Brandon and Rickard makes much more sense - they would have been considered (against everything they said) that they were Rhaegar's willing accomplices in a plot against Aerys. A plot that was sealed by Rhaegar's marriage to Lyanna. In Aerys' mind this whole talk about an abduction would just have been a (futile) attempt to hide the truth from him and try to obscure their traitorous plans.



Anything else - going underground for the time being for 'reasons' - makes little sense. By disappearing Rhaegar lost all the power and influence he had as Prince of Dragonstone, and, more importantly, he also lost the ability to try to reach an understanding with all parties involved. He wouldn't have had any reason to hide if he did not fear for his own life, and since he most likely did not want to rip the Realm apart in a civil war he most likely would have gone to KL if he thought he could do that.



As to Robert, Rhaegar, and Ned:



We have to keep in mind that Ned does not generally think well of Rhaegar. His best friend for all his life was Robert, not the Targaryen prince. Robert may have frequented whores but that's not necessarily a bad thing for a man despite the fact that Ned and Rhaegar apparently didn't do it. Ned makes it clear that Lyanna was supposed to be Robert's wife, and there is no hint that he ever wanted something else for her. Whether Lyanna had any romantic feelings for Robert isn't exactly clear, but one assumes that Lyanna and Robert actually interacted with each other on occasion - presumably while she was visiting Ned in the Vale - and she and Robert had a thing for each other. And Robert was very much in love with Lyanna - much more than he was with any woman he met later, it seems.


Rhaegar, on the other hand, was already married when he met Lyanna, and if there was a polygamous marriage then Lyanna would have to share Rhaegar with another woman who had as much rights to Rhaegar than she herself had, perhaps even more as she was the first wife and the mother of Rhaegar's heir. Considering her sober attitude on love in that talk with Ned I don't think she was the kind of person who would willingly run away with somebody if the whole affair could bring shame on her house and family and cause a conflict/war.



But this whole age gap really makes it difficult for me right to continue to consider Rhaegar and Lyanna a great romantic couple.


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