A+J=T v.7

[Jô Maltese]

I dont think there was anything unsure about Nettles, she lived on Dragonstone, she came forth when they called forward the seeds. (who in their right mind would come forward if they werent a seed).  She was able to tame a wild dragon, she bonded with that dragon and stayed with him her whole life after she tamed him (just like Valyrians have always done).  She was sleeping with or companions with Dameon (a guy who likes girls from his own family).  She was named 'dragonseed' by the maesters.  There is nothing unclear about it in the literature, only people on this forum fighting the inevitable anytime GRRM doesnt specifically spell out every single word to them.

Except that no ascendance is explicitly given. EDIT: Which is strange for the most important dragonseed of the story, who manages to tame two wild dragons (Sheepstealer and Daemon)

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Thanks for the clarification (within the 3-4 years I estimated). 
 
P.S. I still intend to respond to your long post on why you are not convinced of A+J=T. I want to do it right, so I am waiting until I really can focus on it and have time to have a clear response.

No problem ;) :)

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

So, Aerys was crowned in something like 262 if my math is correct?  And Tyrion was born around 273, if I'm reading this theory right?

Aerys was crowned in 262. Tywin became Hand the same year. He married Joanna in 263, and she was sent away from court shortly after marriage.

Jaime and Cersei were born in 266, and Tytos died in 267, which caused Tywin, Aerys, Rhaegar and court to travel to CR, where they stayed the better part of a year. They returned to KL in 268.

in 272, there was an.anniversary tourney held in KL by Aerys to celebrate his 10th year upon the throne. Joanna attended, with Jaime and Cersei.
Tyrion was born in 273.

[UnmaskedLurker]

So, Aerys was crowned in something like 262 if my math is correct?  And Tyrion was born around 273, if I'm reading this theory right?

Yes, so to piece together what everyone is posting, the time line seems to be as follows:

 

259 -- coronation of Jaehaerys

262 -- coronation of Aerys

263 -- Joanna marries Tywin and shortly thereafter is told to leave KL and goes back to CR

266 -- Cersei and Jaime are born

272 -- anniversary tourney

273 -- Tyrion born

 

So what the world book suggests is that Joanna has an affair with Aerys starting in 259. It apparently ends but then starts up again after Aerys become king in 262. Rhaella finds out about it in 263, shortly after Joanna marries Tywin -- and has her removed from KL. Between 263 and 272, Joanna "seldom" visits KL. During that period of time, Cersei and Jaime are born. Joanna is in KL for the last time in 272, Aerys makes a rude remark about her breasts (showing he still has some level of interest in her, perhaps). Tywin tries to resign as hand -- and Aerys won't let him. Joanna goes back to CR and dies the next year giving birth to Tyrion.

 

So I ask any reasonable person -- given that background, if Tyrion does end up bonding with a dragon -- shouldn't a reasonable reader conclude that Tyrion is the son of Aerys (especially given some of the other clues, like hair color)?

[UnmaskedLurker]

Aerys was crowned in 262. Tywin became Hand the same year. He married Joanna in 263, and she was sent away from court shortly after marriage.

Jaime and Cersei were born in 266, and Tytos died in 267, which caused Tywin, Aerys, Rhaegar and court to travel to CR, where they stayed the better part of a year. They returned to KL in 278.

in 272, there was an.anniversary tourney held in KL by Aerys to celebrate his 10th year upon the throne. Joanna attended, with Jaime and Cersei.
Tyrion was born in 273.

I assume you mean they returned to KL in 268 and not 278?

[JonSnow4President]

Yes, so to piece together what everyone is posting, the time line seems to be as follows:

 

259 -- coronation of Jaehaerys

262 -- coronation of Aerys

263 -- Joanna marries Tywin and shortly thereafter is told to leave KL and goes back to CR

266 -- Cersei and Jaime are born

272 -- anniversary tourney

273 -- Tyrion born

 

So what the world book suggests is that Joanna has an affair with Aerys starting in 259. It apparently ends but then starts up again after Aerys become king in 262. Rhaella finds out about it in 263, shortly after Joanna marries Tywin -- and has her removed from KL. Between 263 and 272, Joanna "seldom" visits KL. During that period of time, Cersei and Jaime are born. Joanna is in KL for the last time in 272, Aerys makes a rude remark about her breasts (showing he still has some level of interest in her, perhaps). Tywin tries to resign as hand -- and Aerys won't let him. Joanna goes back to CR and dies the next year giving birth to Tyrion.

 

So I ask any reasonable person -- given that background, if Tyrion does end up bonding with a dragon -- shouldn't a reasonable reader conclude that Tyrion is the son of Aerys (especially given some of the other clues, like hair color)?

If he does, that would change things for me.  I'm still unconvinced though (and of course, a trip to KL is a convenient time for Tywin to impregnate Joanna as well though), although like I said, that's largely based on my read on the relationship dynamics going on.  The hair is a mixed bag (where the hell does the black come from), and the offset eye color for that matter.

 

Not as crackpot as I once believed though.  Thanks for the patience to clear some of this up.  (Our half a billion dollar in house software ain't working, some I'm having more time than usual at work).

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

I assume you mean they returned to KL in 268 and not 278?

Yes, typo. Thanks!

[King Viserys Targaryen IV]

The hair is a mixed bag (where the hell does the black come from)

 

From Betha Blackwood, Aerys' grandmother

[Lord Varys]

The rumor is that Aerys deflowered Joanna during his father's coronation celebration in 259 AC. Whether an ongoing affair followed straight after isn't clear, but even if it did it could only have lasted a few months since Aerys accompanied the Targaryen army to the Stepstones shortly thereafter, separating the two for about a year or so. Whether it continued after Aerys' return isn't clear especially since we don't know whether Joanna returned to the West for a short time during the Reyne/Tarbeck rebellion - after all, her brother Stafford was taken hostage by Lady Tarbeck shortly before the outbreak of the war.

 

After Aerys' ascension she ruled as his mistress for a short time, which could be a hint that this had also been the case during the last months of the reign of Jaehaerys II. Whether the approaching marriage to Tywin ended the affair, or whether it only ended publicly and Aerys and Joanna continued to sleep with each other behind close doors - either behind Tywin's back or with his knowledge/(forced) consent - is unknown. However, the fact that Rhaella banishes her shortly after the wedding could be a hint in that direction. The Queen may either have had felt pity for Tywin as the cuckolded husband, or may have decided to rid herself and Aerys of her temptation if her husband was right now attracted to a different woman.

[Doorlocks]

Yes, so to piece together what everyone is posting, the time line seems to be as follows:

 

258 -- marries Rhaella (Aerys is 14)

259 -- Summerhall; Rhaegar is born; coronation of Jaehaerys

260 -- War of the Ninepenny Kings; Aerys knighted

261 -- No clue where Aerys was, but Tywin was decimating families

262 -- coronation of Aerys; Aerys names Tywin Hand

263 -- Joanna marries Tywin and shortly thereafter is told to leave KL and goes back to CR; Rhaella miscarriage

264 -- Rhaella miscarriage

265 -- Plans the construction of a white city of marble

266 -- Cersei and Jaime are born; Aerys is heard to remark "I appear to have married the wrong woman"

267 -- moves court to Casterly Rock; Rhaella delivers stillbirth daughter

268 -- returns court to King's Landing

269 -- Prince Daeron birth and death after six months

270 -- Rhaella delivers stillbirth; Aerys accuses Rhaella of infidelity

271 -- Rhaella has miscarriage

272 -- anniversary tourney; Prince Aegon born premature

273 -- Tyrion born; Prince Aegon dies

274 -- Prince Jaehaerys birth and death; brief return of Aerys' old self

275 -- Aerys fasts, repents, and vows fidelity

276 -- Viserys born; Tywin stages tourney in Viserys' honor and proposes a marriage between Cersei and Rhaegar; Aerys rejects and insults Tywin

277 -- Defiance of Duskendale (Aerys is 33)

 

Added additional elements of Aerys' life.  If we can trust Barristan, then Aerys desired Joanna at least by 258.  If so, it's hard to think of their tryst at Jaehaerys' coronation, in the wake of the grief of Summerhall and also just following Rhaegar's birth, as a meaningless fling.  I also think it's telling that Aerys and Rhaella don't conceive again between Rhaegar and when Joanna is dismissed from KL, but do nearly every year after that.  It also seems like Tywin could have orchestrated the Defiance of Duskendale to get revenge against Aerys for rejecting his proposal.

[UnmaskedLurker]

If he does, that would change things for me.  I'm still unconvinced though (and of course, a trip to KL is a convenient time for Tywin to impregnate Joanna as well though), although like I said, that's largely based on my read on the relationship dynamics going on.  The hair is a mixed bag (where the hell does the black come from), and the offset eye color for that matter.

 

Not as crackpot as I once believed though.  Thanks for the patience to clear some of this up.  (Our half a billion dollar in house software ain't working, some I'm having more time than usual at work).

As KVT pointed out -- Betha Blackwood, wife to Aegon V and grandmother to Aerys, had black hair. The world books gives us this information as well. No other Lannister is known to have black hair. And Tommen's hair turns gold as he grows older -- while Tyrion stays pale blond. Why does GRRM add these tidbits?

 

The mismatched eyes are a little different. I don't think they are strictly inherited, but I think they might have literary symbolic meaning. The reason suggested in the OP is that it is a subtle reference to Shiera Seastar who also had mistmatched eyes and was a Targ bastard. Another theory is that it is a subtle reference to the greens and blacks of DoD 1.0 while he will be part of DoD 2.0. It also could be a reference to his duality as both Lannister and Targaryen (like his dream when he has the two heads -- one laughing (Targ) and one crying (Lannister)).

 

When you have time, I would urge you to read through the OP, including the spoiler boxes. After really giving the theory its due in terms of reviewing the evidence, then let me know what you think.

 

IMHO, it really comes down to a view about the meaning of the three heads of the dragon. If 3 characters will be the 3 heads -- then Tyrion really is most likely one (by process of elimination) and if he is a head of the dragon then he is a child of a Targ (i.e., of the dragon -- House Targ). If you think Jon (or Dany) is the three heads in one -- then there is no need to find a third head of the dragon and no need for Tyrion to be a Targ. But GRRM simply put in too many clues in favor of AJT for it to be just a coincidence, so if they are not meant to inform readers of AJT (on a re-read after the series is done if no other purpose), then why did he include them?

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Lord Varys,

Wouldn't the fact that Rhaella was able to send away Joanna in 263 in itself be a suggestion that the affair had ended?

[Danelle]

Notably Jaime killed Tyrion's father, and Tyrion killed Jaime's father. Oh, the irony. ;)

A lovely, disturbing balance.  

 

The irony throne?

:laugh:

 

 

The funny thing is that fathers and sons sat on the IT on different occasions. 

 

There is another issue that I wanted to discuss and I apologize if it has already been mentioned in earlier threads.

When Dany enquiries about Aerys' extramarital affairs, Barristan only mentions his lust for Joanna.

Yet in WOIAF we are told that Aerys had several mistresses.

Does anyone find it odd that Barristan only mentions Joanna? 

[Mithras]

259 AC: Rumor that Aerys deflowered Joanna.

262 AC: Rumor that Joanna “enjoyed a brief reign as his paramour after he [Aerys] ascended the Iron Throne.”

263 AC: Tywin wed Joanna. Aerys complained of the ban of the first night. Aerys took unwonted liberties during the bedding ceremony. Rhaella dismissed Joanna from the court soon after the marriage.

275 AC: Aerys vowed to sleep only with Rhaella thereafter.

 

If Joanna was a paramour of Aerys not long before her marriage to Tywin, Aerys would not complain of not being able to have one last sex with her.

 

None of these grandiose plans ever came to fruition; most, indeed, were forgotten within a moon's turn, for Aerys II seemed to grow bored with his royal enthusiasms as quickly as he did his royal paramours.

 

It has been reliably reported, however, that King Aerys took unwonted liberties with Lady Joanna's person during her bedding ceremony, to Tywin’s displeasure. Not long thereafter, Queen Rhaella dismissed Joanna Lannister from her service. No reason for this was ever given, but Lady Joanna departed at once for Casterly Rock and seldom visited King's Landing thereafter.

 

“And my father? Was there some woman he loved better than his queen?”

Ser Barristan shifted in the saddle. “Not … not loved. Mayhaps wanted is a better word, but … it was only kitchen gossip, the whispers of washerwomen and stableboys …”

“I want to know. I never knew my father. I want to know everything about him. The good and … the rest.”

“As you command.” The white knight chose his words with care. “Prince Aerys … as a youth, he was taken with a certain lady of Casterly Rock, a cousin of Tywin Lannister. When she and Tywin wed, your father drank too much wine at the wedding feast and was heard to say that it was a great pity that the lord’s right to the first night had been abolished. A drunken jape, no more, but Tywin Lannister was not a man to forget such words, or the … the liberties your father took during the bedding.”

 

Joanna (if she ever was) can only be one of the many royal paramours of Aerys and nothing suggests that Aerys loved/wanted Joanna in a special way compared to his other royal paramours from 259 to 275. Barristan was spewing BS here. After all, he is proven to be wrong about his memories. What was his BS about Simon Toyne? Even George admitted that Barristan is an old man whose memories cannot be trusted with blind faith.

[Jô Maltese]

The scurrilous rumor that Joanna Lannister gave up her maidenhead to Prince Aerys the night of his father's coronation and enjoyed a brief reign as his paramour after he ascended the Iron Throne can safely be discounted. As Pycelle insists in his letters, Tywin Lannister would scarce have taken his cousin to wife if that had been true, "for he was ever a proud man and not one accustomed to feasting upon another man's leavings."

As I said upthread, I think this paragraph is exactly what happens, and this sheds a different light on Aerys and Joanna's relationship:

- We know that Pycelle is devoted to the Lannister family, so his fierce denial is nul and void ;

- We also know that Tywin did not mind, in fact, feasting upon another man's leaving (Shae!).

 

Now, Joanna giving her maidenhead to Aerys and reigning as a paramour suggests that their affair was not a quick sexual fling but something more serious, especially for Joanna, which opens the door to relapses between the two later. And this brand new information out of the blue must have been put for a reason by GRRM? I can see only one reason: establish that "Aerys and Joanna were lovers once (or more)" is a strong possibility, for us the readers, but also for the people in Westeros / Essos (rumor implies common knowledge).

 

In addition, we know that Aerys and Rhaella struggled to have healthy children but

(...) in 266 AC, at Casterly Rock, Lady Joanna gave birth to a pair of twins, a girl and a boy, healthy and beautiful, with hair like beaten gold. (...) [And Aerys reflected that he had] married the wrong woman.

Again, I find it telling that the narrative insists on how difficult it was for Aerys and Rhaella to have healthy children and how easy (although 3 years after their wedding) it had been for the Lannister couple. I also note the golden hair which hints at trueborn Lannister children. Then, 7 years later, from the same couple, you a have a difformed baby who was not expected to survive beyond a few weeks (on Cersei's account). When I link the dots, I can see a hint at Aerys being the father of Tyrion and being the "wrong husband" for Rhaella, not the other way round.

[Lord Varys]

Rhaenys,

 

that is also a possible interpretation, but if Joanna only agreed to marry Tywin - and if Aerys only allowed the marriage to take place - if she could continue her affair with the King then it might be possible that Rhaella later intervened there to spare Tywin the indignity of having an (openly) adulterous wife. There are clear hints that Joanna was a more serious affair for Aerys than any of his other mistresses, and it is difficult to assume that he would have let her go if he had the means to keep her. Rhaella could have gotten away with that easily, I think, if we assume that the Queen Dowager Shaera was still alive at that point, and Aerys didn't dare to punish Rhaella for anything while their mother was still around.

 

But then, it might be that Aerys' changeable nature had decided that he had had enough of Joanna and that led to him arranging and presiding over Tywin and Joanna's marriage. But even then, it might have been clear to anyone involved that Aerys had older rights to Joanna anyway, and she would only be Tywin's wife in a secondary capacity, forced to return to the King if he commanded it.

 

On Yandel talking about the affair:

 

Yandel would clearly only feel the need to mention the Joanna-Aerys thing at all if it was a well-known fact. Based on Pycelle's accounts he does his best to dismiss the rumors, but such rumors as there are - Aerys deflowering Joanna, and Joanna reigning as Aerys' mistress for a short period of time in 262-3 - wouldn't come out of the blue. Especially the latter would most likely not be a rumor at all since a royal mistress is usually not hushed up or hidden in the closet. In regards to deflowering in 259 AC Yandel even seems to have better sources than Barristan Selmy since the latter most likely never was at KL for Jaehaerys' coronation - he only joined the KG during/after the War of the Ninepenny Kings.

 

One assumes that he would have had details on Aerys' affair with Joanna in the first year of the former's reign, but then, perhaps Barristan was away on a mission then. Say, accompanying Tywin to Braavos to settle things with the Iron Bank, or escorting the Queen Dowager Shaera to Raventree Hall for the funeral of her Blackwood grandfather or grandmother. Not to mention that it is clear that Barristan tries to keep things from Dany about Aerys and Joanna when he tells her his tale. Either the conception of Tyrion later on, or information about the actual affair. He most likely only tells her the tale about the unwonted liberties of the wedding because they were truly widely known.

[UnmaskedLurker]

Mithras--

 

You really are bending over backwards to try to dismiss the likelihood that Aerys and Joanna has a last fling (or perhaps Aerys forced himself on her) at the anniversary tourney. Sure, it is possible that any fling they had were long over. But GRRM put the words in Barristan's mouth about Joanna being the favorite of Aerys. Could he have been mistaken? Sure, but why bother to put these words in Barristan's mouth at all? Remember that only a tiny number of people who have read ASOIAF have come to the conclusion that Aerys is the father of Tyrion -- or have even really considered the possibility.

I admit that if GRRM has a goal of "tricking" a small number of readers into thinking that Aerys is the father, when he really is not, then GRRM would plant these little clues that can be otherwise explained, as you have done, for no other purpose. As SS keeps pointing out, near the beginning of GoT, Tyrion makes a comment to Jon about Tywin not being sure that Tyrion is really Tywin's son. So the subtle hints start right away. And then in tWoIaF, GRRM puts in all this information about Joanna and Aerys -- and places her in KL at a potentially right time for conception. So with all of that, why put those words in Barristan's mouth about Joanna if it amounts to nothing? Why does GRRM keep putting in these clues regarding Aerys and Joanna -- and Tywin not really considering Tyrion to be his son -- if it all amounts to nothing?

 

You keep picking apart the clues one by one to show how no one clue proves anything. I have admitted over and over and over and over again that such an approach can be taken -- but it misses the point. Of course GRRM will put in clues that can be otherwise explained. That is what he does. But what he does not do is "lie to his readers." So if he puts in numerous clues that all point in the same direction, they must mean something. You have not ever put forth a coherent explanation for why GRRM bothered to put in so many different clues all pointing in the direction of AJT if it is not true.

[Suzanna Stormborn]

So, Aerys was crowned in something like 262 if my math is correct?  And Tyrion was born around 273, if I'm reading this theory right?

 

 

What we also know is that Pycelle is a very unreliable narrator when defending the Lannisters point of view... So there is a good chance Joanna was indeed the paramour of Aerys in her unmarried days.

 

EDIT: Aerys coronation 262 AC, Tyrion born 273 AC

So at the 272 ten year anniversary tourney is the last time they are all together.  All we have is Yandel's account of rumors from that night.  It is rumored that Aerys made some comment about Joanna's breasts then abruptly Tywin tries to resign as Hand of the king the next day (very dramatic move for Tywin who had put up with a ton of crap fro Aerys for almost 2 decades).  This is all also in woiaf, Aerys openly made fun of and talked shit on Tywin constantly, he was basically a joke to Aerys and Aerys' lickspittles.  So it is our opinions/theory that the night of the tourney in 272, more than just a breast comment happened.  We think that night Aerys either summoned Joanna to his room and raped her or it was consensual, if she was his mistress before she might not mind doing it again.  We really dont know anything about her except 'Tywin ruled the realm and Joanna ruled him' and we have heard that Tywin truly loved her.  Does this mean she is sweet an innocent? Could she be manipulative and power hungry?  She is Cersei's mother after all and a Lannister, so who knows really.  But she was def sleeping with the king, a married man, for at least some time.  So I have my doubts about her.

 

So Tywin resigns the next day and Aerys refuses to accept, they leave KL, go to CR and in the next year period Tyrion is born.  We dont know how many months later exactly.  She dies and Aerys laughs at their deformed baby, many around the country say, according to Oberyn;

 

‘A queer time to come visiting. His mother has dies giving him birth, so the the Martells would have found the Rock deep in morning. His father especially. Lord Tywin seldom spoke of his wife, but Tyrion had heard his uncles talk of the love b/n them. In those days, his father had been Aerys's hand, and many people said that Lord Tywin Lannister ruled the 7 kingdoms, but Lady Joanna ruled lord Tywin. "He was not the same man after she died, Imp,' his uncle Gery told him once. "The best part of him died with her." Gerion had been the youngest of Lord Tytos Lannister's four sons, and the uncle Tyrion liked best.....’
.."I had just been born, what did you expect of me?"
"Enormity," the black-haired prince replied. "You were small, but far-famed. We were in Oldtown at your birth, and all the city talked of was the monster that had been bored to King's Hand, and what such an omen might foretell for the realm."....................Lord Tywin had made himself greater than king Aerys, I heard one begging brother preach, but only a god is meant to stand above a king. You were his curse, a punishment sent by the gods to teach him that he was no better than any other man."......."You did have one evil eye, and some black fuzz on your scalp.......You shrieked, but it was only when your brother Jaime said, 'Leave him be, you're hurting him,' then Cersei let go of you. 'It doesn't matter, ' she told us. 'Everyone says he's like to die soon."

 

 

That Tyrion was Tywin's punishment for being higher than the king.  We think that this was Aerys literally punishing Tywin with his seed in Joanna's womb, a seed that killed her coming out.

 

 

Now, doesn't all that make more sense and add more understanding to the bug up Tywin's ass?  This is why he hates Tyrion so much and is such a dickhead.  He's had a tough time, his father was a softy, his wife cuckolded him with the king, the king treated him like shit then banged his wife one last time which ultimately led to her death, then he his stuck with this dwarf bastard forever.

 

 

A lovely, disturbing balance.  

 

:laugh:

 

 

The funny thing is that fathers and sons sat on the IT on different occasions. 

 

There is another issue that I wanted to discuss and I apologize if it has already been mentioned in earlier threads.

When Dany enquiries about Aerys' extramarital affairs, Barristan only mentions his lust for Joanna.

Yet in WOIAF we are told that Aerys had several mistresses.

Does anyone find it odd that Barristan only mentions Joanna? 

Well yeah.  She is the only named affair Aerys ever had. In a literary sense there is no point in GRRM mentioning this affair so much unless the twins or Tyrion is the son of the king, right?  The Twins are clearly not, and Tyrion clearly is lol.  Tyrion is the one with dragon dreams/fascination, alcoholic, terrible sleeper, depressed, lustful, very smart, deformed, white blond/black hair, mis-matched eyes, loves fire, etc etc.

 

 

And yeah none of those things on their own prove anything, but put them all together.........

[DMC]

SS--

 

Watching people debate against AJT is an interesting exercise in people engaging in wishful thinking. [1] GRRM was forced with RLJ to give away too much and make the "mystery" something that is almost impossible to deny once the clues are pointed out (although, as we know, even RLJ has its detractors). So with RLJ, almost any reasonably intelligent person must get used to the idea and more or less accept it. But with AJT there was no need to put in those sorts of clues. No one needs to "lie" about who Tyrion's father is -- Tywin certainly "could" be the father so he is assumed to be. But Ned as the father of Jon creates contradictions given what we know about Ned. And the "promise" creates an immediate mystery to be investigated. So given that some of the clues don't really have reasonable alternative explanation, RLJ gets accepted even by those who would prefer it not to be true (for the most part).

 

But with AJT, GRRM had the luxury to put in clues that always had "alternative" (or as some people put it, the "natural" or "normal") explanation. Whereas with RLJ, some "clues" just cannot really have a reasonable alternative explanation (as much as the detractors have tried -- and even most of the detractors seem to have agreed that Lyanna is the mother and it seems to have changed primarily to a debate over the identity of the father).

 

So what is interesting to me is how people are able to take each and every clue and argue that that specific clue means nothing. And each one certainly is capable of such an explanation -- we have seen RT and Mithras do it. I saw Laddy Blizzardborn on JM's thread regarding Tyrion and dragons make similar arguments.

 

But what none of them can explain, as I noted above, it why GRRM would bother to put in so many clues if it comes to nothing. [2] In the JM thread, LB claimed it was so that when Tyrion rides a dragon, people will assume AJT -- but it won't turn out to be true. I did not respond there because JM wants to keep that thread talking about Tyrion's connection to dragons and not become another AJT thread, but that explanation makes no sense. Many of the clues are not available to people "in-universe" so she presumably means the readers. But what is the point of that? Why would GRRM give clues that almost no one seems to be seeing -- just so that for some period of time people will all of a sudden conclude that Tyrion is a Targ -- just to find out later that they were right the first time, he really is not a Targ. I just don't understand how that can make any sense to her -- but apparently it does. 

 

And I think it makes sense to her because I suspect for whatever reason she just does not want the theory to be true. But this behavior is an interesting examination in how so many people think. And even assuming we are proven correct, it likely won't have any impact in the future regarding them going through the same flawed thought process [3]. The instinct likely is too ingrained. 

 

 

1.  This is an interesting thing to say from the largest enthusiast of AJT.  By your own admission, you believe the three headed dragons prophecy to be literal, thus are searching for the third head as the first two are generally accepted.  It is intellectually dishonest to pose as if this is not why you began accumulating evidence for AJT - which in effect is an incredible commitment to justifying your own wishful thinking.  The ironic thing is if we're talking wishful thinking, I love the simplicity of Tyrion riding Viserion and being kin to Jon and Dany.  For me, it's easy to believe in that.  My reticence has always been the 'evidence' you perceive as overwhelmingly convincing I find paltry or inconclusive at best; in addition to the fact the logic of such a presumed tryst introduced by AWOIAF and its necessary fallout has never been adequately addressed.

 

2.  You are building a strawman here.  This is based on the assumption that the 'clues' you have detailed in the OP present a comprehensive list of textual indicators that must be taken as a whole.  The problem is the vast majority of these hints are inarguably subjective - the refutation of such is not necessarily a 'plausible alternative' from others' perspective.  Indeed oftentimes it's the leap to describe such as 'clues' towards AJT that is decidedly alternative.  For example, Tyrion's obsession with dragons - one of the keystones of the theory - is plainly put into action in ADWD.  It is rather obvious he will be 'in the midst of it all,' and much of such hints detailed in the OP may simply reflect his anticipated integral role.  Indeed, you can even extend this to the physical 'clue' of his eyes - they denote his ambiguity in the oncoming Second Dance, perhaps reflecting his own mixed feelings.  Same thing goes for the two-headed dream.  My point is not that you have constructed a poor theory.  As I've said time and again, I think this is the most plausible worthwhile theory, with compelling evidence, after RLJ.  My problem is when you cast the debate in the arrogant manner in which dissent or challenging the theory is implied as lesser than.  Just because people do not take the time to go through a line-item refutation of the OP does not mean their opposing opinions aren't legitimate.  Reasonable people can disagree. 

 

3.  As intimated above, I would totally, unequivocally mark out if Tyrion rides Viserion and is subsequently revealed as Aerys' son.  I don't think, however, that exploring other possibilities as to why Tyrion can ride Viserion represents a 'flawed' thought process.  If you want to point out 'flaws' in logic, I can easily turn that back toward AJT theorists.  The entire theory hinges on Aerys sleeping with Joanna during the anniversary tourney, yet the explanations for why this would happen after Aerys' public insult range from rape to ridiculousness.  The explanations for Joanna consenting are a masters course in 'mental gymnastics,' and are oftentimes borderline offensive to women.  I have the utmost respect for Lord Varys, but the conjecture that she did it do convince Aerys to retain Tywin as Hand because she sought influence makes absolutely zero sense.  Frankly, it doesn't take much to conjure a superior explanation - she enjoyed her own role as Lady of the Rock and wanted to ensure Tywin stayed in King's Landing. 

 

Finally, I will conclude by challenging the assertion the the 'red herring' argument can be dispensed with.  I agree that the AJT 'clues' are hardly any type of red herring to the general reader.  Yet, it is undeniable that these threads would never have gained so much traction without the publishing of AWOIAF.  So, why would Martin, in Ran's own words, 'fan the flames?'  Well, I believe the term if 'feeding the beast,' and exhibit A through Z are these threads.

[UnmaskedLurker]

dmc515--

 

I know you think I am a bit of an arrogant guy, and I respect you for coming out and saying so. You have suggested in the past that I am condescending as well. Maybe I am -- when debating precise analytical reasoning, putting one's thoughts using limited space and reacting to other's positions (which sometimes seems way off-base to me) can came across that way. I really just try to lay out my arguments as clearly and succinctly as I can. I try to be honest. While honesty is not an excuse for being rude or making a personal attack on an individual, I don't think I have crossed that line. I honestly respect your analysis and input and find your post above (#179) to be generally well-reasoned and puts forth valid arguments. I will try to address them one at a time.

 

1. Let me be clear on what I mean by wishful thinking. I don't mean that someone has analyzed clues -- comes to a conclusion -- and then analyzes other information in that context of how it relates to the conclusions already formed. What I mean is to argue from emotion rather than logic. For the most part, I don't care how the story turns out -- I just want a good story. I don't care if Tyrion is a head of the dragon or whether he rides a dragon or whether he lives or dies. To the extent I care at all, it is that I have come to certain conclusions from my reading of the clues and want to be shown to have been right. But none of my analysis is based on "wishful thinking" in the sense that I "prefer" that the story go a certain way because it would cause me to enjoy the story better. That is what I meant in the first statement of mine that you bolded. For example, many people think that the Tywin/Tyrion relationship, as outlined by GRRM, only works from a literary point of view if Tywin is the birth father of Tyrion. If that reasoning is the true rationale for that determination, even after considering all the counter-arguments, I would not call that line of reasoning wishful thinking. If it turns out to be mistaken, it was merely flawed analytical reasoning. My point is that I strongly suspect that many people are not coming to that conclusion based on that line of reasoning. I strongly suspect that many simply "like" the story better if Tywin is the bio-dad of Tyrion because they understood the story that way when first reading those chapters and Aerys as bio-dad would lessen their enjoyment of the story because they like the notion of the cruel father having it out for the deformed son for almost entirely unjustified reasons. That is the story they "like" and so they view all potential clues to the contrary through that prism. It is that form of reasoning that I call "wishful thinking" and I try incredibly hard to avoid engaging in such ways of thinking because its clouds objectivity in analyzing the clues. I am trying to be "right" in predicting what will happen -- not argue for the story that I would prefer to be written. And to be clear, I have never thought that you were one of the people engaging in wishful thinking -- so if you thought I was lumping you in that category, I will clarify here that I was not. But the way many others have discussed these issues, I have gotten the clear perception that they simply prefer the story to be a certain way and then engage in rationalization to analyze all clues with the goal of supporting the version they personally prefer.

 

2. I honestly and truly do not believe the second bolded statement is a strawman at all. I really have been waiting for an explanation for why GRRM put in so many clues if AJT is not true. You posit one explanation. I find it entirely unconvincing. I don't mean that no one has tried -- I just mean that all attempts have been what I consider to be weak arguments -- which of course is a subjective determination. I will try not to be arrogant or condescending, but I will try to explain why your attempt to explain appears to be quite weak to me. First, you engage in the usual approach of explaining how there is a more "natural" reading of each clue -- like the dragon vision or two-headed dragon dream. But while clues are almost always subjective in their interpretation -- there really are too many to be ignored, in my view. I will list a few of what I consider to be the most central to the case:  (1) only Lannister who as an adult is described with pale blond hair and only Lannister to have black streaks of hair; (2) dreams about dragons; (3) references by Tyrion that Tywin never really considered Tyrion to be his real son (dwarfs are bastards in their father's eyes); (4) born deformed and described as having a tail; (5) Aerys is described as having been more interested in Joanna than anyone else; (6) Joanna is placed in KL at a time that could be the time of conception; and (7) the similarities among Jon, Dany and Tyrion, especially the manner of the deaths of their mothers. I really do not believe that a good author would insert so many hints by accident. They all point in favor of AJT -- not "proof" -- but supporting evidence. From the point of view of an author who eventually would have such a "big reveal" -- these are precisely the sort of clues that the author would insert. So while there might be a good explanation for why GRRM has done this -- I simply have not heard one yet that makes any sense to me. Maybe that is arrogant -- perhaps it is. But it is not a strawman. And of course exploring other possible ways that Tyrion might ride a dragon is permissible -- actually I strongly encourage people to challenge all of my conclusions. I have modified some of my views when someone makes a convincing argument. If someone came up with a good explanation, I would consider it and determine whether I am convinced. I welcome open and honest debate. And I am not suggesting that each and every person who does not agree with AJT is merely engaging in wishful thinking -- just that it seems that many are doing so. And of course, people can disagree. But in the end, most likely, one side or the other will be shown to be correct. If I am shown to have been wrong, then I will admit there was a flaw in the way that I analyzed the clues -- try to figure out where I went wrong -- and try to do better next time. But if I am right -- I hope a similar thought process would be had by those who opposed this theory. So while we can disagree, at some point, most likely, it will turn out that one side was wrong. But I strongly encourage all people who disagree to come here and express why they disagree. I want a full and fair exchange of ideas. I am waiting for someone to come up with something that persuades me that this theory has serious flaws in it. So far, no one has done so. But, of course, that does not mean I am right. But I will express my view if I don't find an argument persuasive.

 

3. I don't think there is any flaw in the logic that Aerys and Joanna slept together at the tourney at all. As to why Tywin would behave as he did if Aerys and Joanna had sex and Tyrion is the product of that encounter -- I just don't find that question to be a particularly important question to answer. While I find it interesting, I know that GRRM hides the motivations of many characters -- especially non-POV characters, as Tywin is. I don't know why Tywin would act the way he did -- there are many possibilities. The simplest is that he may not have thought he had a viable alternative that did not cost him more than he gained by staying on at Hand. But maybe there are other explanations. In a work of fiction like this one, characters sometimes act in ways that are difficult to explain -- other than that the plot needed the character to do that action. And I am not sure how any description of how a fictional woman in a time period with completely different expectations regarding a woman's role in the world should be considered to be "borderline offensive" to anyone. No one is suggesting that a modern woman is likely to act that way -- but Joanna is a fictional character living in time where women had fewer options and rights. But that point is a side point and not really central to the issue at hand. You seem to think that unless GRRM has already laid out some way to explain why Tywin would act as he did, then the theory is flawed. I don't find that line of thinking persuasive at all. I think that the motivations of many of the characters are intentionally hidden from us. You have to focus on actions of the character and not think that we know precisely what motivates particularly non-POV characters. Basically, GRRM has an infinite number of way to explain Tywin's behavior (assuming AJT). GRRM is not going to go into the precise explanation before the big reveal (if there is going to be one). So lack of an explanation simply is not a reasonable roadblock to this theory. Now, I admit I might be wrong and engaging in "flawed reasoning" in this regard. But it does not negate the point I was making that GRRM put in lots of "clues" that seem to point in favor of AJT. Prior to WOIAF, people complained that Joanna and Aerys were not in the same place at that time. So WOIAF expressly states that Joanna was in KL in the year prior to Tyrion's birth. Of course, GRRM does not want to make it too obvious that Aerys and Joanna had sex at that time, so GRRM has Aerys make a rude comment -- but the comment is of a sexual nature of sorts, which shows that Aerys is still thinking about Joanna. That is all an author needs to lay the seed. He is not going to "make it easy" and have the two show direct sexual interest in each other. But why go out of his way to put them in the same place at the right time if it is not an clue in favor of AJT? Just a coincidence? I doubt it.

 

If you think that GRRM writes in misleading clues to "feed the beast" then you and I simply have a very different view of GRRM. But I have admitted this motive as the only possible motive that makes any sense to me -- but even if true, that does NOT make it a red herring. Red herring has a particular meaning, and such a "punking" of a few hardcore fans simply does not qualify under the normal definition. But as I often say, semantics arguments are the least interesting to me, so let's not quibble over terminology. Let's look at the substance of the issue at hand. Would GRRM add "false clues" that point in favor of a theory that will turn out not to be true if the "clues" serve no real other purpose in the story? I don't think so. GRRM has stated that he does not "lie" to his readers. Putting in subtle clues that point toward a "false theory" would be lying to his readers. I think he was referring to RLJ in that statement -- basically he seems to be admitting that because he planted all the clues to indicate that RLJ is true, he cannot change his mind now because then he would not know how to explain away those clues without just having the readers basically ignore them. Now, some people say there are clues in different directions -- but not really. Some characters state that Wylla or Ashara might be the mother. But there really are no independent pieces of evidence that need explaining that point in that direction. These characters simply are mistaken. But the clues -- such as bed of blood and Jon is my blood, etc. etc. -- all point in favor of RLJ. GRRM is saying that he does not put in clues that are not there for a reason -- and the reason cannot be to convince readers of the existence of a mystery when actually no mystery exists at all. So prior to WOIAF, I thought maybe I was misreading the clues and maybe they were not meant as clues and I was just seeing a pattern where none really existed (i.e., all just a coincidence). But after WOIAF, that possibility seems virtually non-existent. So we are left with the "feed the beast" theory, which I think amount to "lying to his readers" which GRRM said he would not do. So what is left as an explanation?