The reason the Others came again lies in a blood promise broken by Ned Stark of Winterfell to the Olds Gods of the North.

[AlaerysTargaryen]

 

Hey guys, and yes, it is what I meant. Our most beloved character and most honourable, Ned Stark, caused the return of the Others because he inadvertently broke the millennial Pact that the First Men made with the Children of the Forest, to bring the Long Night to an end, and vanquishing the White Walkers. In a sad twist of fate, the old gods of the North were betrayed by Ned Stark, in Winterfell and it all has to do with the Faith of the Seven. Detailed explanation follows below.

 

 

PART 1: THE LONG NIGHT, THE DAWN OF HOUSE STARK, AND A PACT BETWEEN THE RACES.

 

At the beginning of Dawn, in Westeros lived only the old races, the children of the Forest and the Giants. The first Men came and with them the destruction of the weirwood trees and other natural resources, that were sacred to the children.
The children thought they could share the land in peace, but the men became greedy and war was waged between the races.

The Long Night came, and it brought cold darkness and death to Westeros and the rest of the world. Akin to the Great flood myth , different legends arose in all Planetos.

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tales of a darkness that made the Rhoyne dwindle and disappear, her waters frozen as far south as the joining of the Selhoru. According to these tales, the return of the sun came only when a hero convinced Mother Rhoyne's many children—lesser gods such as the Crab King and the Old Man of the River—to put aside their bickering and join together to sing a secret song that brought back the day.

there are annals in Asshai of such a darkness, and of a hero who fought against it with a red sword. The followers of R'hllor claim that this hero was named Azor Ahai, and prophesy his return.

a curious legend from Yi Ti, which states that the sun hid its face from the earth for a lifetime, ashamed at something none could discover, and that disaster was averted only by the deeds of a woman with a monkey's tail TWOIAF

If the legends are to be believed, the children and FM got tired of war and signed a pact and declaration of peace in an island of Gods Eye, where all the weirwood trees were carved with faces so they would bear witness. This landmark is what today is known as the Isles of Faces. The children gave up their lands in all Westeros and retired to the deepest of the forest and supposedly lived in peace until the Others came. The White Walkers became a threat to all life and a pact was made between both races to put differences aside and fight them as a common enemy. The COTF confided a secret on the way to destroy the Others and gave the Last Hero, a share of magic to defeat them, and the payment was an offering of blood and life: his bloodline. He defeated the Others in the Battle of Dawn or a truce was made, and his name never takes holds in history, but I believe that the Last Hero was a Stark or at least a direct ancestor of the family, and in exchange of the COTF aid, he swore an oath of blood to the Old God that his bloodline would be the protectors of Men for all the time to come, would stand guard against the Others if they returned and upholds the Old Gods above all in their given lands. (I have a theory that the fact the Stark may carry the blood infused with magic of the Last Hero, is very important to the outcome of the story).

Bran the Builder makes appearance in history (perhaps he and the Last Hero are the same person), and with the help of the COTF raise the Wall, a magical barrier to keep the Others out and the NW is created to stand guard.

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These same legends also say that the children of the forest—who did not themselves build walls of either ice or stone—would contribute their magic to the construction.

 

Bran the Builder becomes the mythical founder of the Stark family and it is said he built the family seat, Winterfell, and prayed himself in its godswood. And with his concludes the first part of the Stark story.

 

PART 2: THE KINGS OF WINTER, KEEPERS OF THE NORTH.

 

The Starks of Winterfell strive and will become one of the oldest families in Westeros, they are the Kings of Winter, because their ancestors won the Battle of Dawn, and freed the world of a terrible Winter that lasted a generation. Their words are Winter is Coming, so they always remember that the WW may comeback, and only from their bloodline shall arise a hero who would vanquish the Others once more. Their family seat is Winterfell because they fought a battle against the Othersand the cold Long Night and won, so Winter "fell". This is why there must always be a Stark in Winterfell, the survival of their bloodline is vital to the world.

They serve the Olds gods, theirs is the northern way, some chronicles and Bran visions even suggest says that they gave blood sacrifices to the weirwoods as well the children of the forest did. They slowly subjugated the other lesser northern houses, and became the Kings in the North.

Thousands of years pass, the Andals invade, other First Men Kings in Westeros tried to repel them and sought the help of the COTF in this task:

 

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of the night in the White Wood, where supposedly the children of the forest emerged from beneath a hollow hill to send hundreds of wolves against an Andal camp

When the Andal king Erreg the Kinslayer surrounded the hill, the children emerged to defend it, calling down clouds of ravens and armies of wolves...or so the legend tells us.

Gwayne IV (the Gods-fearing) sent his warriors searching out the children of the forest, in the hopes that the greenseers and their magic could halt the invaders.

King Durran XXI took the unprecedented step of seeking out the remaining children of the forest in the caves and hollow hills where they had taken refuge and making common cause with them against the men from beyond the sea.

Mern III (the Madling) showered gold and honors on a woods witch who claimed that she could raise armies of the dead to throw the Andals back. TWOIAF

 

 

 

But the Andals invaders prevailed, the few COTF that weren’t slaughtered, hid in the Isle of Faces under the protection of the greenmen, and stayed in the Neck where they are to believe intermarried with the crannogmen. (Later when a Stark defeated the Marsh King and took his daughter to bride, this could be the introduction of greenseer/warg traits in the Stark bloodline if they didn’t had them since the beginning). The rest of the southron kings of the First Men, subjugated, the victorious Andals took their daughters to wife, and from that time the conquered followed the Faith of the Seven.

 

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The seven-pointed star went everywhere the Andals went, borne before them on shields and banners, embroidered on their surcoats, sometimes incised into their very flesh. In their zeal for the Seven, the conquerors looked upon the old gods of the First Men and the children of the forest as little more than demons, and fell upon the weirwood groves sacred to them with steel and fire, destroying the great white trees wherever they found them and hacking out their carved faces.

 

But it was only in The North, that the Andals were repelled, their armies lost and destroyed in the bogs and marshes of the Neck. The North remained unconquered; the Kings of Winter kept their sovereign rule in the only land where the Olds Gods still would still be worshipped.

Three centuries ago, the Targaryen came, all the kingdom in Westeros were knitted in a single one, by defeat or surrender. Thorren Stark was the las King in the North, but he was wise, and instead of fighting an unwinnable battle, he bent the knee and gave up his crown to Aegon Targaryen. But even history says that this was not a true victory of the Dragons:

 

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Neither was ever truly conquered by the dragons. The King in the North accepted Aegon Targaryen as his overlord peaceably, whilst Dorne resisted the might of the Targaryens valiantly for almost two hundred years, before finally submitting to the Iron Throne through marriage.TWOIAF page 235

 

PART 3: THE RETURN OF THE OTHERS, FAITH OF THE SEVEN AND THE DOWNFALL OF HOUSE STARK.

 

A new age began, the Age of the Dragonlords, where the Starks were kings no more in title , but the Lords of Winterfell, the Wardens of the North. Rhaenys Targaryen tried to tie the Starks to the rest of the Seven Kingdom by arranging a marriage, of a daughter of Torrhen Stark, the last King of the North, to Ronnel Arryn of the Vale. What came of this union it is unkwon, as the whole family was killed in the first years of Aenys Targaryen rule.

The Stark remained far from the southron court intrigues and the next time the pop in history was in the Dance of Dragons. The Northsupported the claim to the Iron Throne of Rhaenyra Targaryen, the Pact of Ice and Fire was made, where in exchange of support a royal princess would marry in to the family. Lord Cregan Stark aided the court, after the civil war concluded in Rhaenyra’s son Aegon III becaming King, he served briefly as Hand of the King during the Hour of the Wolf and returned to the North. The Targaryen marriage never came to happen.

This is where the most important part of my theory takes importance. Through millennia, the Starks intermarried with only northern women, daughters of their bannermen. There are recorded only very few times where this didn´t happen, the most recent one the marriage alliance that Rickard Stark sought with the Tully, this gaves place to the amazing theory, Southron Ambitions.

Let us see these foreign southron marriages:

Torrhen Stark’s daughter and Ronnel Arryn, Heir of the Vale: children unknown, all family killed.

Cregan Stark and Alysanne Blackwood (Family descended from FM/Follow the old gods): descendance all female.

Beron Stark an Larra Royce (Family descended from FM/ Most certainly follow the Faith of the Seven, by integration with the Andals culture): Descendence: they were the great-grandparents of Rickard Stark, father to Ned, Benjen, Brandon Lyanna.

Willam Stark and Melantha Blackwood: Rickard's grandparents.

Jocelyn Stark and Benedict Royce Descendance all female, and married into the houses of the Vale.

R+L=J: If you subscribe to theory that they were married, and their child legitimate.

Eddard Stark and Catelyn Tully: Descendance 5 children, the eldest Robb Stark and the last Lord of Winterfell/King in the North now deceased.

We should take notice that two of this known southern wives to the Lords of Winterfell were of lesser houses, vassals to the Lords of the Vale and the Riverlands. We can assume that they travelled to Winterfell where they were wed and had their children.

So Ned Stark, and later his son Robb, was the last of his bloodline to have married to an outsider woman. Brandon was Catelyn´s intended groom but as he was traveling to Riverrun for the wedding, the news of Lyanna’s abduction reached him, he went to KL and there he died along to his father. Ned Stark became the Lord of Winterfell, he and Robert rebelled along with their foster father Jon Arryn and to secure Riverrun support, he married Cat, who would have been his brother’s wife. Let see the circumstances of this wedding, which are mentioned a lot of times in the very beginning of the first book:

 

 

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as he and Ned stood together in the sept at Riverrun to wed two sisters, the daughters of Lord Hoster Tully. CATELYN I AGOT

He looked somehow smaller and more vulnerable, like the youth she had wed in the sept at Riverrun, fifteen long years gone. CATELYN II AGOT

Brandon Stark had bid her wait as well. "I shall not be long, my lady," he had vowed. "We will be wed on my return." Yet when the day came at last, it was his brother Eddard who stood beside her in the sept. CATELYN X AGOT

 

 

Ned Stark goes to fight the war, and Catelyn Tully is left pregnant with the heir of Winterfell, to whom she gives birth in Riverrun, and we can assume is named in the Light of The seven.

 

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Ned had lingered scarcely a fortnight with his new bride before he too had ridden off to war with promises on his lips. At least he had left her with more than words; he had given her a son. Nine moons had waxed and waned, and Robb had been born in Riverrun while his father still warred in the south.

 

 

They win the war, the last of the Targaryens murdered or gone; Robert Baratheon becomes King, and Ned Stark return to the North, with his wife and newborn son. Eddard Stark was a true man of the North, he represented all of the qualities of his house, and he upheld the Old Gods and the northern way of being, such as the man who passes the sentences should swing the sword. But at the same time he broke important thousand years old traditions, the most obvious one regarding the crypts of Winterfell, the place of rest reserved for the Stark Kings and Lords, as he entombed there his siblings Brandon and Lyanna as well as his Lord father. 

But another tradition was broken, that caught my attention, and I think it is what awakened the Others, and it all comes down to a promise that forgotten and unknowably broken by Ned Stark. Jojen Reed says that something was forgotten at Winterfell:

 

 

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We remember the First Men in the Neck, and the children of the forest who were their friends . . . but so much is forgotten, and so much we never knew." BRAN I ASOS

Men forget. Only the trees remember." …He has a thousand eyes and one, but there is much to watch. One day you will know." BRAN III ADWD

"What do the trees remember?" "The secrets of the old gods," said Jojen Reed. Food and fire and rest had helped restore him after the ordeals of their journey, but he seemed sadder now, sullen, with a weary, haunted look about the eyes "Truths the First Men knew, forgotten now in Winterfell … BRAN II ADWD

 

 

 

What truth is now forgotten in the heart of the North? I think it is the pact that was made between the Last Hero and the children of the Forest, when they revealed the truth about the Others and a way to defeat him when the Battle for Dawn was won. The Last Hero, a Stark, gave a promised of blood, that his bloodline will be the custodians of the North, and will uphold the Old Gods for all the time to come. The King of Winter will be born from the blood of the First Men, and renew their blood premise with the birth of their heir in Winterfell, before the Old Gods.

 

I think it is very important, that even a legend is included in the story to bear significance to this fact.

Bael the Bard, a wildling king, was thought to abduct the only daughter of Lord Brand Stark, and this put the family bloodline in the verge of extinction. She reappears in a year later with a baby in her hands, and the truth was they never left, hid in the crypts and she gave birth in Winterfell.

 

Other time where pregnant women in Winterfell are mentioned is one of Bran vision:

 

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After that the glimpses came faster and faster, till Bran was feeling lost and dizzy. He saw no more of his father, nor the girl who looked like Arya, but a woman heavy with child emerged naked and dripping from the black pool, knelt before the tree, and begged the old gods for a son who would avenge her. BRAN III ADWD

 

So it is my believe that the magical pact was broken when a Stark heir was born in southern land, and the Faith of the Seven at last made its ways to Winterfell, as Ned built a sept for his wife, a fact mentioned in the first Catelyn chapter:

 

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Worship was for the sept. For her sake, Ned had built a small sept where she might sing to the seven faces of god, but the blood of the First Men still flowed in the veins of the Starks, and his own gods were the old ones, the nameless, faceless gods of the greenwood they shared with the vanished children of the forest.* CATELYN I AGOT

 

I strongly believe that is what broke the “magical protection pact” of the Starks to the Old Gods and what woke the Others after so many millenia. In a sad sense of irony it could be what brought Eddard Stark, a man Stark to the bone, to death. As the North was never truly conquered and submitted peacefully to the Targaryen rule, it could be interpreted that his official pledge to a southron King and execution in the Great sept of Baelor, was a blood offering to other gods. 

 

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"I betrayed the faith of my king and the trust of my friend, Robert," he shouted. … Let the High Septon and Baelor the Beloved and the Seven bear witness to the truth of what I say: Joffrey Baratheon is the one true heir to the Iron Throne, and by the grace of all the gods, Lord of the Seven Kingdoms and Protector of the Realm." ARYA V AGOT

 

(A coincidence or not, is that his son Robb Stark also wedded a southron woman in the light of the Seven, and later was murdered).

So to wrap it up, my theory is that a blood pact between the Starks and the Olds Gods were broken, when Eddard Stark married Catelyn Tully in a sept, in the light of the Seven, and his firstborn, the heir of the Stark bloodline was born and consecrated in southron land before the new gods. Ned Stark built a sept in Winterfell, and for the first time in millenia the Faith of the Seven begins being practiced there, and in this way the Old gods were betrayed.

EPILOGUE: A TIME FOR WOLVES

I believe that the Starks are the most important characters in this story, their bloodline and tied history with the beginning of all that came to happen will have a bearing in the final battle with the Others. Remember Winterfell was destroyed, their Septon Chayle was killed we can assume the small sept as well, the castle later rebuilt by the Boltons usurpers, who now call themselves the Lords of Winterfell.

I think that Jon will be resurrected and will retake Winterfell, and Bran will leave the cave and head there as well. He will connect with the same ancient weirwood tree where his ancestor, Bran the Builder prayed, and the truth about the old pact will be revealed, and the ancient promise of the Starks to the Olds gods will be renewed. The North will remember and the time for wolves will come.

[Luddagain]

I think you are on the right track re the old Gods and Ned.

 

There are a few points to note: The only Southern Houses the Starks wed were connected  with the OLD gods and important ones. The Royces with their magic runes.

Even more significant are the Blackwoods who apparently alone of Southern Houses still worshipped the old gods. What we also now know is that the Balckwoods were orginially a Northern House, driven out by the Starks. They seemed to have been wargs and allied I suspect with the Greystarks.

[Curled Finger]

@AlaerysTargaryen, 1st and foremost thank you for a really nicely presented argument.  If I had 1/3 your skill all the Valyrian Steel swords would be found by now.   You've done a good job supporting your position here and I appreciate the effort you put into this.   There are a few items I feel require additional support for.   

@Luddagain responds nicely to the Southron marriages prior to the Tullys.  The Royce motto is "We Remember".   Certainly there is something to this, regardless whom they worship.  And there are those intriguing Blackwoods who were originally from the North.   

I enjoy this topic a great deal and have read previous support for your claim that the interments of Bran and Lyanna Stark was in some violation of the pact.   The crypts at Winterfell are indeed supposed to house the remains of the Kings of Winter.  There have been no Kings of Winter since Torrhen, the King Who Knelt.   Only Wardens of the North and Lords of Winterfell for 300 years.  Why would Ned's addition of 2 more family members who aren't any more or less egregious than any LOW since Torrhen suddenly be a violation?   The sept for Catelyn is understandable.  Still, Ned's respect for strange gods never curbed his own devotion to the Old Gods.  Even Craster appears to have some strange gods, The Gods, not the Old Gods.   The NW allows the practice of all its members faiths and even employs a Septon.   

While I agree with the premise that an agreement has been broken, I'm not sure these instances are the incontinuities.  They seem to be very minor infractions given the vast array of possible promises that could have been made between the COTF and 1st Men.    

[AlaerysTargaryen]

10 hours ago, Luddagain said:

I think you are on the right track re the old Gods and Ned.

 

There are a few points to note: The only Southern Houses the Starks wed were connected  with the OLD gods and important ones. The Royces with their magic runes.

Even more significant are the Blackwoods who apparently alone of Southern Houses still worshipped the old gods. What we also now know is that the Balckwoods were orginially a Northern House, driven out by the Starks. They seemed to have been wargs and allied I suspect with the Greystarks.

I think also that is very interesting that these foreign marriage seems to be limited to these 2 houses. It makes us wonder where the warging abilities were introduced in the Stark bloodlines. Was with the marriage to Marsh KIng daughter, or after the defeat of the Wark King beyon the Wall when they took his daughter as prizes. Or it could be more recently with the Blackwood marriages, as they were the Kings of the wolfswood and maybe had these abilities themselves. Points supporting the later claim, could be the fact that Bloodraven, a half Blackwood himself, also turned to be a powerful greenseer and skinchanger.

[AlaerysTargaryen]

6 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

While I agree with the premise that an agreement has been broken, I'm not sure these instances are the incontinuities.  They seem to be very minor infractions given the vast array of possible promises that could have been made between the COTF and 1st Men.    

Yes I know it seems trivial, and sincerely I agree. I also hace read a lot of theories about the crypts but after encountering so many coincidences about the recent intrusion about the faith of the seven in Winterfell  so I decided to explore another possibility abOut the pact or truth forgotten in Winterfell. The almost inivisible aspect about the rare magic in asoiaf, is one of the thing that interest me the most so that is a question that I most want to get answers for. 

[StarkofWinterfell]

So the Others awoke because Ned wed Catelyn in Riverrun? 

[Aedam Targaryen]

I really like this idea! Just to play a little devils advocate, here are a few things I thought about while reading...

Ned does seem all about the old gods, and while I understand the need to marry quickly at river run and head off to war, we can't be sure that there wasn't some sort of oath or ceremony in front of the weirwood after the war. Of course, that wouldn't change the fact that Rob was born in the south. 

The other thing that came to mind about the crypts. I don't know if I assumed more than was on the page, but I always thought all Starks were entombed in the crypts, but only the kings and lords had statues. That was the impression that I got, I'll have to do a re-read to see if that was based on assumptions that I made, and not actually how it was. And just like my previous point, this wouldn't change the fact that the siblings got statues when  no one else besides kings and lords did.

But I do agree that there may have been some sort of forgotten pact that was broken. These are the best ideas I've seen as yet as to what the broken pact might have been, I'm just not all the way sold. 

[Aryya Stark]

Thank you for a very nice OP.

I too really like the idea of some pact being broken with the Old gods which caused the destruction of the seat of House Stark. Whenever I reread the books this really bothered me "there must always be a Stark in Winterfell"... I always felt as though something really bad would happen...a sense of doom if there was not a Stark in Winterfell. Well, there is no Stark in Winterfell now so I am really interested to see what this means exactly and what sort of consequences it will have.

I really liked your theory, at least it attempts to explain something which has bothered me for a long time.

[Luddagain]

For what it is worth Brandon WAS a legitimate King in the North/Lord of Winterfell, albeit for only an hour or so. We Know Rickard died FIRST and Brandon died stuggling to reach him.

 

So we are ONLY talking of Lyanna.

[Macgregor of the North]

@Aedam Targaryen you are correct. All Starks are laid to rest in the crypts. Lords and Kings got statues but Ned broke protocol and had statues made of Lyanna and Brandon I believe. 

But Ned wasn't the first to break this tradition. Artos the Implacable got a statue beside Willam but he was never Lord.

[Lord Vance II]

I don't necessarily agree, but this is good an explanation as I've seen. 

Does Jon fit into this at all? I've always kind of seen him as being ordained (for lack of a better term) by the old gods. Out of the direwolf pups, he got white with red eyes, same color scheme as the weirwoods, and colors are important in the story. I think it was very meaningful that he gave his NW oath to the weirwood grove and that it's why he has been extremely lucky on his danger-fraught path. Him and Sam (who also gave his oath to the old gods) are the only NW we know have killed wights. He gave his life to save the lives of the wildlings, who hold the old gods as tightly as anyone in the North, probably even more so. I feel like he's built up a lot of good will from the old gods. And, of course, I believe he will be revived. 

Maybe the pact can be restored by Jon, who was legitimized as King in the North?

 

On 6/11/2016 at 9:29 PM, AlaerysTargaryen said:

The North will remember and the time for wolves will come.

I've come around to believing the climax of the end game will involve a new Hour of the Wolf.

I believe the remaining Starks will be in position to make major moves by the end of Winds. Jon/Sansa and the GNC should dispose the Boltons and leave a united North to fight the Others, potentially reinforced by the Vale, the last untapped source of manpower in the 7 kingdoms and maybe whatever the Neck/Riverlands have left (BwB or the stragglers Reid may be reforming in the bogs). Bran will develop and be able to make even more moves through the Weirnet and Arya will most likely be back in Westeros by the end of Winds with a blood lust. 

Maybe the terms of the pact will be re-fulfilled if the Stark children re-establish stewardship of the North? 

[The Sword of the Evening]

My problem with this theory is the timeline. According to Mance, he has been trying to gather the free folk for a long time. The timeline doesn't match up with Ned's marriage. It matches up with Bloodraven's disappearance beyond the wall.

This is from Weirwood Leviathan:

 

Now we don’t know exactly when the Others began their aggression (the show puts Mance gathering the wildlings for southern migration at 20 years, but we can’t necessarily take that as gospel). We have pretty good reason to believe that the free folk began feeling an immediate and impending threat at some point which required them to migrate south, and this happened before the actual return of dragons, before there were no more Starks in Winterfell, and before the red comet most recently showed itself. That said, the last major wildling invasion before out story was by then King-Beyond-the-Wall Raymun Redbeard around 72 years before the start of the story, and that seemingly was as a result of the dwindling Night’s Watch, and so the return of the Others as a threat likely occurred after that, since Mance had to unite the Wildlings again. So, the Others didn’t start coming back when the Hardhome tragedy occurred 600 years ago (in the books this was a different tragedy involving fire), or when dragons came to Westeros with Aegon the Conqueror 300 years ago, or when the Nightfort and Snowgate were abandoned and first night was abolished in the North during the reign of Good Queen Alysanne, or even when the dragons died in Westeros around 150 years before the story begins. Whatever brought them back, they didn’t actually start coming back till some point in the last 72 years. So what awoke them? What made them start coming south? Could Bloodraven and the Children of the Forest get the Others to invade? Well the timeline certainly fits.

The timeline indicates the return of the Others seemingly coincides with Bloodraven’s disappearance, as they don’t seem to have come back around any major events prior to that, and all of the major events in our story in the last 72 years which could believably concern them seem to be after Bloodraven took the Weirwood throne. Furthermore, considering we know Craster and the Others have an arrangement where he supplies them with children, the 48 years since Bloodraven’s disappearance also fit with the apparent age of Craster. Though the possibility that Bloodraven began working his scheme because he saw the Other’s coming exists, there is seemingly no event in the 30 some years before his disappearance while still after the last wildling invasion, which would bring the Others. If Bloodraven had seen the White Walkers beginning to gather their forces while he was Lord Commander, you’d think he would send word to Aegon V. (yes that is the King who exiled him, but that should not have stopped him from warning the realm. Yet Aegon the Unlikely seem hell bent on bringing back dragons to enforce pro small folk reforms. It appears Aegon V wasn’t warned of the Others.

Furthermore, though the Others appear an inherently hostile and ominous force, we have to bear in mind thatthe Others have kept to their side of the wall for thousands of years when our story begins, and neither the comings nor going to men or dragons in Westeros seems to have provoked them south as of yet. In fact, historically there is zero evidence of the Other’s gathering forces to march south at any time after the Long Night, so we don’t have any actual indication that there are any expansionist tendencies or southward manifest destiny among wight walkers. They seem to have started their aggression only during Bloodraven’s reign as the last greenseer.

 

This is from: https://weirwoodleviathan.wordpress.com/2015/11/11/ii-bloodraven-and-the-greatest-evil-2/

[Beren_One_Hand]

@The Sword of the Evening Mance tells Jon that he visited Winterfell as a man of the Night's Watch when Robb and Jon were kids and watched them playing in the snow. He couldn't have been gathering the wildlings for 20 years. Based on this the timeline would fit with Ned's marriage.

[The Sword of the Evening]

3 hours ago, Beren_One_Hand said:

@The Sword of the Evening Mance tells Jon that he visited Winterfell as a man of the Night's Watch when Robb and Jon were kids and watched them playing in the snow. He couldn't have been gathering the wildlings for 20 years. Based on this the timeline would fit with Ned's marriage.

You missed the point, the show says that he had been doing that for 20 years, with regards to the books I recommend you read his post. The timelines match up.

[ErasmusF]

I've never been much of a Stark/blood pact theorist. There's just some weakness in the logic, to me. First, why would the Others form a pact with the Starks that includes them ruling the North, staying in the North, keeping the Old Gods, etc. There have been some other folks theorize that it's a pact of sacrifice, but it seems like a long time since The Long Night to have kept up a blood sacrifice. It's hard enough keeping a line going, much less producing extras for the Others. 

From the show

Spoiler

We know that the Children created the Others to fight the First Men. But it seems like this is a weapon they lost control of, the proverbial sword without a hilt. So I don't know what reasoning the Others would have to increase or decrease hostilities and what mechanism they used to form a pact. 

Is it important that the first known victim of the Others was Waymar Royce? I keep thinking it might be. 

 

 

[David Selig]

Of course it is Catelyn's fault. Isn't it always?

[Julia H.]

2 hours ago, The Sword of the Evening said:

You missed the point, the show says that he had been doing that for 20 years, with regards to the books I recommend you read his post. The timelines match up.

It is a good point that Bloodraven becoming a greenseer is very likely to have some connection with the gathering of the White Walkers, but the timeline does not indicate what sort of connection it is. Did the White Walkers start gathering because of Bloodraven or did Bloodraven move beyond the Wall because the White Walkers were gathering? 

6 hours ago, The Sword of the Evening said:

If Bloodraven had seen the White Walkers beginning to gather their forces while he was Lord Commander, you’d think he would send word to Aegon V. (yes that is the King who exiled him, but that should not have stopped him from warning the realm. Yet Aegon the Unlikely seem hell bent on bringing back dragons to enforce pro small folk reforms. It appears Aegon V wasn’t warned of the Others.

Well, that's what Yandel knows... Yet, now that you have mentioned it, if Bloodraven had warned Aegon V about the coming of the Others and if Aegon had wanted to bring back dragons in order to have a weapon against the Others, would he have necessarily advertised it at that point? Wouldn't he have just let everyone think he was only thinking of small folk reforms? Who says he couldn't have several reasons for wanting a dragon, including a secret one? Besides, we know what the general Westerosi attitude is towards the idea that the Others might actually exist. Even if Aegon had shared this piece of news with his advisers, would it have made it into Yandel's chronicle as something worth mentioning? 

By the way, it is true that Mance can't have been gathering the wildlings for about 20 years. This fact doesn't disprove the rest of the timeline, but why should we leave incorrect data in a theory when we know it's incorrect?

[Julia H.]

Regarding the OP, I find it very likely that something along the lines of the breaking of the pact has happened. The pact is mentioned several times in the novels, and it is repeatedly emphasized that there must always be a Stark in Winterfell, it is also mentioned that the Night's Watch must stay true, and all of these seem to point in the direction that some rules or promises have been broken.

As for the suggestion that the Starks have inadvertently broken the pact due to their new Southern connections, I'm in two minds... On the one hand, I dislike the idea that Ned's tolerant and understanding nature might be part of the reason why the evil beyond the Wall has awakened(?) again - I'm thinking of the sept in Winterfell, built for Catelyn, and I somehow don't think that religious intolerance (Stannis-like) should be the solution or part of it. On the other hand, I can see that "going South" means bad news for the Starks - there are repeated warnings that their place is in the North and that they must not abandon their Northern post (which reminds me of the men of the Night's Watch, who promise to live and die at their post), and when they do go South, it almost invariably leads to disaster. Ned is certainly guilty of that, as are others in his family, before and after him. 

To mention a different idea, I think bemused suggested that Torrhen Stark may have inadvertently broken some magic when he gave up his sovereignty to Aegon the Dragon. (Not that he had much of a choice, but magic is magic.) Of course, the Others didn't attack right then, but we know that the Children of the Forest live for centuries, so 300 years may not count as a long time for the magical races of Westeros. 

Anyway, this is an interesting and well-thought-out OP, really thought-provoking. 

[estermonty python]

1 hour ago, ErasmusF said:

Is it important that the first known victim of the Others was Waymar Royce? I keep thinking it might be. 

 

 

Interesting thought!  The Royces would certainly be an example of descendants of the First Men who have turned from the Old Gods.  The Daynes as well. 

[estermonty python]

1 hour ago, Julia H. said:

It is a good point that Bloodraven becoming a greenseer is very likely to have some connection with the gathering of the White Walkers, but the timeline does not indicate what sort of connection it is. Did the White Walkers start gathering because of Bloodraven or did Bloodraven move beyond the Wall because the White Walkers were gathering? 

Well, that's what Yandel knows... Yet, now that you have mentioned it, if Bloodraven had warned Aegon V about the coming of the Others and if Aegon had wanted to bring back dragons in order to have a weapon against the Others, would he have necessarily advertised it at that point? Wouldn't he have just let everyone think he was only thinking of small folk reforms? Who says he couldn't have several reasons for wanting a dragon, including a secret one? Besides, we know what the general Westerosi attitude is towards the idea that the Others might actually exist. Even if Aegon had shared this piece of news with his advisers, would it have made it into Yandel's chronicle as something worth mentioning? 

Couple things:  First, it has been noted elsewhere that Yandel is, like the POV characters of the books, an imperfect narrator, and is in some cases simply wrong and in other cases willfully politicking with the prose to appeal to the royal family.  So there are certain points of fact where we are given conflicting information and expected to choose.  For instance, Yandel says dragons do not change their sex, while Maester Aemon tells Sam that they do.  Given that Yandel presents this info as a reason why there can't be dragon eggs in the crypts of Winterfell, I think we are being led to think he is wrong about certain things.

Speaking of Aemon, though, my second thought is that there's no way Aegon V could have known or believed anything about the Others.  If he did, he would surely have corresponded with Aemon about it.  I suspect we will learn all about this, since Duncan the Tall accompanied Aemon and Bloodraven on the ship from King's Landing to the Wall, so presumably it will be the subject of a novella at some point.