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U.S. Politics: Are You Threadening Me Master Jedi?


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I don't know that leaving out the bad parts of a country's behaviour, particularly on the foreign stage and in relation to indigenous peoples, from school textbooks is a uniquely American thing. Most countries try to use school history text books as a way to make the country look good and heroic.

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8 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I don't know that leaving out the bad parts of a country's behaviour, particularly on the foreign stage and in relation to indigenous peoples, from school textbooks is a uniquely American thing. Most countries try to use school history text books as a way to make the country look good and heroic.

Thats unfortunate, it can lead to things like people not connecting the dots when you point out the bad behavior that is being visited upon you, is exactly what youve been doing all over the world for quite some time. One defense of blowback is to not repeat the behavior that fosters it, and that requires a well informed citizenry.

I have to agree with Tywin comments about Americans not being widely aware of the extent we have interferred in so many other countries self determination/democracy. 

Mexal- Why would MSM broadcasts point this out? What point would it serve? What argument would they then make using this information?

You dont see any point in acknowledging that we are now victims of something weve been doing to the rest of the world for decades? I think its worth reflecting on whether we should reconsider some of our foreign policy practices, I see value in that.

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 Either way, Trump’s behavior in the immigration debate—turning against a legislative compromise after Cotton was summoned to a White House meeting to oppose it—illustrates the young senator’s influence. In fact, Trump is said to be considering him as the next CIA director.

Cotton’s emergence is alarming. In part, that’s because what endears Cotton to Trump—and makes them particularly dangerous together—is Cotton’s unflinching willingness, in pursuit of an agenda, to say things that aren’t true.

 

Cotton Tales
Tom Cotton’s lies make him a dangerous prospect to head the CIA

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/01/tom-cotton-is-dangerously-deceptive.html

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Uh yeah, it’s not surprising to me that the Great Recession and it’s mishandling both in the US and in Europe would lead to more radicalized politics.

In Europe the poor institutional design of the Euro and the doctrine of “expansionary austerity” was a disaster. And now we’re seeing the results.
https://promarket.org/economic-insecurity-behind-specter-populism/

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Nationalistic parties with an explicit anti-globalization—as well as anti-elite and anti-immigration agenda—have risen to power in Poland, Hungary, and Austria. AfD and Marine Le Pen’s Front National did very well in the past German and French elections, respectively; and Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement is leading the opinion polls in the forthcoming Italian elections. At the same time, radical left parties, opposing financial and trade globalization, have also been on the rise, especially in southern Europe with the electoral success of Syriza and Podemos. In 2016, Donald Trump’s campaign was based on a typical populist anti-elite, anti-immigrant, and anti-trade agenda. Similarly, an anti-EU agenda was supported by the majority of British votes during the Brexit referendum. Populist parties and politicians are also on the rise in emerging and frontier economies. Furthermore, mainstream parties have taken note of the populists’ successes and are now catering to people’s growing demand for populist policies in many countries (Guiso et al. 2018).   

 

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Rather than looking at medium-/long-run features, in recent work (Algan, Guriev, Papaioannou, and Passari 2017), we examine the role of the 2007–9 global financial crisis and its metastasis in Europe on voting and political beliefs in 220 subnational regions of 26 European countries. We show that crisis-driven economic insecurity is a substantial driver of populism and political distrust. We find a strong causal impact of the rises in unemployment on voting for non-mainstream, especially populist parties. Increases in unemployment go in tandem with a decline in trust in national and European political institutions.

There is a reason why I'm such a rabid anti-unemploymentnista. It's a societal rot.

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We assign non-mainstream parties into four (not mutually exclusive) categories using earlier works in political science and a reading of parties’ manifestos: far-right nationalistic parties like the Golden Dawn in Greece or True Finns, extreme-radical left parties like Syriza in Greece and Podemos in Spain, populist parties like UKIP in the UK and the Five Star Movement in Italy, and Euro-sceptic like Jobbik in Hungary and Poland’s Law and Justice party. As shown in Figures 1a and 1b there is a strong correlation between rising regional unemployment and voting for non-mainstream and especially populist parties. A one percentage point increase in unemployment is associated with a one percentage point increase in the populist vote. The association is especially strong in the south, where voters turn mostly to radical-left parties. In the north increases in regional unemployment are correlated with a rise in far-right party vote. This pattern is also present in eastern Europe, where people are moving towards xenophobic, anti-European parties.

Hope the Davos crowd keeps this mind. While I'm sure it feels good to pat themselves on the back about their progressive goals, just talking about multi stake holders solutions doesn't do much.

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We then examine the role of the crisis on the Brexit vote across the UK’s 379 electoral districts. In line with the European-wide results, Figures 2a and 2b show that the increases in regional unemployment before the referendum (2007–15) are strong predictors of the Brexit vote, while the level of unemployment is not much related to Brexit.

 

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We then study the evolution of trust, political beliefs and attitudes before and after the 2007–10 crisis and examine whether swings in unemployment are related to changing ideology. We use individual-level data on Europeans’ beliefs and attitudes from the European Social Survey that covers the period 2000–2014. Figures 3a and 3b show that increases in regional unemployment have resulted in a deterioration of trust towards national and European political institutions.

 

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These patterns apply to men and women, younger and older cohorts. The relationship between unemployment and distrust in national and European institutions is stronger for non-college graduates, a pattern that echoes the findings of Autor et al. (2016, 2017), Che et al. (2016), and Colantone and Stanig (2016), who relate populist voting and political polarization to depressed wages among unskilled workers fueled by rising competition from low-/middle-income countries.

 

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However, when we examine heterogeneity we find that for non-college educated respondents the link between unemployment and negative feelings on immigrants’ economic impact is sizable, most likely because unskilled workers have been affected the most from the crisis, technical progress, and globalization.

I'd agree that trade and immigration probably gets blamed more than it should for these problems, as there seems to be other factors in play like automation and government policies. But, keep in mind, many of these people are not probably well versed in trade theory, and it's understandable where some of their anxiety is coming from.

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Our results give a rationale for countercyclical macroeconomic policies, preventing rising unemployment and attenuating its impact. Even a temporary increase in unemployment may result in political fallout, which in turn would give rise to anti-market policies undermining long-term growth. Indeed, a cyclical downturn may bring about populist policies which in turn can give rise to sustained negative economic implications.

No doubt, expansionary austerity caused a lot of these problems. Now I don't expect most people to be deep in the weeds about macro policy making, and it's understandable that many would blame globalization or whatever, as that likely seems to be simpler explanation.

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The impact of rising unemployment on political trust is also important for the success of structural reforms that many European countries are currently implementing. Political trust is key for the reforms that are painful in the short run but deliver socioeconomic benefits later (such as labor market reforms, reforms of public administration, opening up protected occupations, deepening the fiscal and banking union). In order to support such reforms, the public needs to trust that politicians have the public interest at heart. If this is not the case, reforms are not implemented—or get reversed by populists. This in turn means that unemployment remains high, further reinforcing the vicious circle of political distrust and lack of reforms.

If I were in a place like Spain, where unemployment reached 25%, I'd tell my political leaders to go piss off too.

And, I think there is important that needs to be hashed out here. Not just with regard to the left in the US, but in Europe as well. And I’ll probably piss off some of my fellow lefties by saying this, but I really don’t care as this needs to be hashed out, if this right wing nationalistic crap is going to be stopped.

And here it is: There seems to be a narrative by some on left that these economic issues didn’t matter in the election of Trump and that it was all due to racism and sexism and so forth. And, frankly, I think that is a load. Now certainly, racism and sexism and other nasty little “isms” played a big role in electing that Orange monster and his fellow travelers, but these economic issues mattered as well. Now granted there is the other side on the left that thinks it was all about economic matters and we can ignore this racism and sexism stuff. That I believe is a mistake too. I think the proper approach here for lefty sorts in the US and elsewhere is to realize all this stuff is interrelated and you have to fight both of them and you can’t fight one, but not the other.

...............................................................................

So what the hell is going on with the Stock Market conservative sorts of people?

http://antoniofatas.blogspot.com/2018/01/the-shrinking-us-risk-premium.html

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As the US stock market continues to climb and reaches "record-high" levels, questions on overvaluation and bubbles become more common. Robert Shiller CAPE measure of the US stock market shows now a market that is at a higher level than during the Great Depression. The market has only been more expensive in the years 1998-2000 in the run up to the burst of the internet bubble.

But, surely, this has to be too to business guy Trump's awesomeness? Am I right? And then you have the party of business in power, so everyone is surely feeling giddy about the big economic boom that's coming. It's almost as if you can smell mornin in America in the air.

Oh well, maybe not:

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While high CAPE values signal potential overvaluation, one has to compare those numbers to levels of interest rates to assess whether stock prices are truly overvalued relative to other asset prices. One simple way to compare the two is to calculate the stock market risk premium implied by current levels of stock prices, earnings, nominal interest rates, expected inflation as well as expectations of future earnings growth. In previous posts I have explained in detail the data and methodology to calculate the risk premium. Below is the most updated analysis including the value of 10-year interest rates that just hit 2.642% today.

 

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A combination of higher stock prices and increasing interest rates has led to a sharp decrease in the risk premium which is quickly approaching 4%. Not far from the values in 2007. But, of course, still really far from the 1990s bubble. 

Okay, lets start with something like

p(t) – e(t) = k/(1-a) + Sum[ From t out to a very log time] a^t E_t [%e(t+1) – r(t+1) – (1-a)b(t+1)]

p(t) is the log price level, e(t) is log earnings, k,a are constants from the linearizion process, %e(t+1) is earnings growth and r(t+1) is the rate of return. E_t is the conditional expectation at time t. And b(t+1) is the payout ratio.

Now conservative sorts of people, I didn’t pull this out of my ass. While I’m not above pulling things out of my ass, on occasion, this is basically Campbell Schiller log linearizion formula.

Now assume, %e(t+1), r(t+1), b(t+1) stay about the same over time we can write something like:

p(t) – e(t) = k/(1-a) + 1/1-a [(%e(t+1) – r(t+1) – (1-a)bt+1]

Now k/1-a is about 4. and 1/1-a is about 25. a is .96. Now about a 4.5% risk premia seems to a pretty safe (or at least that seems to be about the average). The current long term safe rate is about 2.8 (which I got from 20 year treasuries) Since about 1928 earnings growth has averaged about 5%. Assuming this what would the log price earning ratio look like?

It would be about
p(t) – e(t) = 4 +25[.05 – 0.073 - .027] = 2.775 or 16  as opposed to a current log price earnings ratio of about 3.25 and 26. That puts the market about 60% greater than it should be.

During the internet bubble, when the long term risk free rate was about 5.5% the p/e ratio should have been about.

p(t) – e(t) = 4 +25[.05 – 10.1 - .027] = 2.05 or 7.75. Instead in 2000 the P/E ratio actually reached 3.30 or about 27. The market was overpriced about 3.5 times what it should have been.

So were not in interned bubble territory yet. Anyway, for the Trumpsters crowing about the Stock Market, part of it seems to be that risk premia is dropping and that is not a good thing. Definitely its something worth watching and if it drops too below 4.5% that’s worrisome. And future earnings growth seems a little pie in the sky. At a 4.5% risk premia future earnings growth would have be about 7%. That seems pretty optimistic.

Although were not in internet bubble territory yet, one difference is that the Fed Rate back in 2000s was at about 6.5% as opposed to about 1% where it is currently at. So when the bubble popped, there was a lot more room to cut, so that is a little worrisome.

And as conservative sorts of people know, I flatly oppose the idea of using interest rate policy to prick asset bubbles. It’s horrible policy. Interest rate policy can achieve price stability and employment stability, but really it can’t be used to manage asset bubbles, while at the same time trying to achieve price stability and employment stability. Its kind of like having a permed mullet and a pink shirt. You can do one or the other, but really you shouldn’t do both at once. It’s very bad to have people lose their jobs because  mainly wealthy people can’t stop playing at the casino. Also, when the internet bubble happened the the Fed rate was not particularly low.

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3 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

You dont see any point in acknowledging that we are now victims of something weve been doing to the rest of the world for decades? I think its worth reflecting on whether we should reconsider some of our foreign policy practices, I see value in that.

I'm totally fine acknowledging history. I'm fine if MSM wants to do an entire segment on it. Totally cool if they want to do documentaries on it. 

What I don't think is useful is every time they talk about Russian activities in the US, they then start talking about the US activities elsewhere. Just because we do it, doesn't mean it should be acceptable that a major election in this country, one that is very quickly shaping our future, was interfered with so blatantly by a foreign power. I don't blame Russia for doing what they are doing. I blame the US for doing a shitty job preventing it, the people for believing it, the government for amplifying the misinformation and the DOJ for doing fuck all to prevent it from happening in the future.

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I always say, when something goes bad, it's usually not a bad idea to blame the Republican Party.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/24/16927834/daca-deal-blame-game

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The blame game has begun. Left-wing anger is growing at Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and other Senate Democrats for backing down on their threat to keep the government closed unless Congress agreed to some legislative protections for recipients of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program.

But it’s worth pointing out the obvious: Republicans are the people who have put the hundreds of thousands of DREAMers at risk.

 

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13 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I don't know that leaving out the bad parts of a country's behaviour, particularly on the foreign stage and in relation to indigenous peoples, from school textbooks is a uniquely American thing. Most countries try to use school history text books as a way to make the country look good and heroic.

I’m sure that’s the case in most countries, but I fear it’s worse here than in most other places. Hell, my history textbook tried to downplay how bad the Trail of Tears was. And in the last few years I’ve seen stories were some textbooks in the South omit slavery. SLAVERY! Nothing in Kiwi land can be that bad.

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1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

I’m sure that’s the case in most countries, but I fear it’s worse here than in most other places. Hell, my history textbook tried to downplay how bad the Trail of Tears was. And in the last few years I’ve seen stories were some textbooks in the South omit slavery. SLAVERY! Nothing in Kiwi land can be that bad.

I think the stories you have seen are probably a bit hyperbolic. I can find lots of references to complaints that textbooks -- especially in Texas because of their awful statewide book commission -- downplay slavery, but I can't find any reference to it being completely omitted.

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7 minutes ago, Ormond said:

I think the stories you have seen are probably a bit hyperbolic. I can find lots of references to complaints that textbooks -- especially in Texas because of their awful statewide book commission -- downplay slavery, but I can't find any reference to it being completely omitted.

Actually at my last family gathering my cousin was bemoaning that she moved to the suburbs in Tennessee and at her kid's new school the history books had no information on the slave trade or how it was the driving force for the South's way of life. Like, abolition wasn't mentioned is the message I got.

Personally I was very upset about the removal of a certain racial slur from Mark Twain novels. It's important to remember the hate and what it empowered so that we can do better.

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1 hour ago, OldGimletEye said:

re stock market

 

There are a lot of mixed feelings about what has been going on in the stock market. The tax bill will increase profits for companies, but the run-up in the market over the last year was pricing in those expectations.

More worrisome is the fact that the participation rate of individual consumers has gone up sharply, and it is often the sign of the end stage of a bull market. Early gains were made by the pros.

But a real issue today is the lack of shares. I'm not at home and can't really search for and link articles, but so many 100s of millions of shares have been bought back by companies and so many takeovers have happened that both the number of publicly traded companies and the pool of stocks has dropped considerably. That has also pushed share prices up.

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55 minutes ago, Ormond said:

I think the stories you have seen are probably a bit hyperbolic. I can find lots of references to complaints that textbooks -- especially in Texas because of their awful statewide book commission -- downplay slavery, but I can't find any reference to it being completely omitted.

I was a staffer for a State Senator who was at one point the chair on the Education Committee. We had multiple examples of textbooks for junior and senior high students that yes, completely omitted slavery’s role in the Civil War. Some textbooks explained that slaves had good lives, or at least better lives than they’d have in Africa. Others omitted that the founding fathers had slaves, and that some of them were for slavery. You’re correct in saying that there aren’t any textbooks that completely omit slavery, as far as I’ve seen, but there are a ton that completely whitewash America’s history with regards to slavery, and that plays a large role in why we still have terrible race relations in this country. The point is that most Americans don’t know much about the dark side of their country’s history. I think A People’s History of the United States should be a mandatory reading for every high school student in this country. We need to stop lying to ourselves about our history, else we’re doomed to repeat our atrocities.

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10 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

There are a lot of mixed feelings about what has been going on in the stock market. The tax bill will increase profits for companies, but the run-up in the market over the last year was pricing in those expectations.

More worrisome is the fact that the participation rate of individual consumers has gone up sharply, and it is often the sign of the end stage of a bull market. Early gains were made by the pros.

But a real issue today is the lack of shares. I'm not at home and can't really search for and link articles, but so many 100s of millions of shares have been bought back by companies and so many takeovers have happened that both the number of publicly traded companies and the pool of stocks has dropped considerably. That has also pushed share prices up.

Just as I am looking at retirement, I am also looking at another market crash. "If it were done,when 'tis done, then 'twere well it were done quickly."

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8 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

There are a lot of mixed feelings about what has been going on in the stock market. The tax bill will increase profits for companies, but the run-up in the market over the last year was pricing in those expectations.

More worrisome is the fact that the participation rate of individual consumers has gone up sharply, and it is often the sign of the end stage of a bull market. Early gains were made by the pros.

But a real issue today is the lack of shares. I'm not at home and can't really search for and link articles, but so many 100s of millions of shares have been bought back by companies and so many takeovers have happened that both the number of publicly traded companies and the pool of stocks has dropped considerably. That has also pushed share prices up.

There are a lot of interesting things about the tax bill.  For profitable companies, it does provide a huge benefit.  For unprofitable companies, there are some interesting things that happen, including with respect to the interest limitation under new Section 163(j), the inability to carry back losses, and the 80% of income limitation on the ability to use 2018+ NOLs.

Share buybacks are interesting - activists love them and pressure for them.  And I am somewhat sympathetic to the idea of returning excess proceeds to shareholders.  But I do think another thing we are going to see over the next 18 months or so is an uptick in M&A.  I think you will see some reversal of the de-conglomaratization that has been happening since the 1980s, but also a lot of industry consolidation.  The DoJ is going to be more lenient on the anti-trust side, and I think you are going to see a "size matters" and rush to bulk up in a lot of industries.

I'm expecting a significant market correction in the next 18 months or so.  

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23 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

There are a lot of mixed feelings about what has been going on in the stock market. The tax bill will increase profits for companies, but the run-up in the market over the last year was pricing in those expectations.

More worrisome is the fact that the participation rate of individual consumers has gone up sharply, and it is often the sign of the end stage of a bull market. Early gains were made by the pros.

But a real issue today is the lack of shares. I'm not at home and can't really search for and link articles, but so many 100s of millions of shares have been bought back by companies and so many takeovers have happened that both the number of publicly traded companies and the pool of stocks has dropped considerably. That has also pushed share prices up.

In my little model, I made some simplifications about expectations in order to get a feel for the current price level. I don't see earnings growth on average being about 7% over the very long term, not at least if we are going by long term historical data, which I grabbed from Schiller's site. 

It's true of course, that there is likely to some increased expectations of earnings (or more precisely dividend payouts. And I fudged a little on the payout ratio which likely rise in the near future, but will probably go back down in the longer term.) given the corporate tax cuts and anticipated share buy backs, which according to the basic formula will be weighted more heavily than dividend payouts in the longer term.

As far as the share buy backs, I think what happens here is because of the increasing price of stocks, due to the share buy back, what happens here is people see the price appreciation and don't price stocks according to the theoretical idea of rational valuation and rational expectations. In short, they are buying on "the trend is your friend".  And some of the rapid price appreciation of late has because likely due to simple mean reversion in earnings growth, after it plummeted during the Great Recession. Rational expectations suggest economic actors are supposed to be completely forward looking in making decisions today. Of course I don't buy that , as many people do look at the past in order make predictions about the future. Eventually, as people learn about there economic environment, you may get a rational expectations solution, and that's where people wake up one day and say, "holly shit, I spent way too much money on MBSs."

Anyway, I think the stock market is heading or is into bubble territory, and it is something to watch. I have no idea when it will pop, but given the fact that the Fed Rate is only about 1.0% right about now, it's worrisome, and given the fact we have a party in power, which simply is incapable of dealing with what happens when the FED rate hits the Zero Lower Bound. And of course the Republican Party's nonsense over banking regulation, doesn't help matters much either. And I'll repeat using the FED rate to pop asset bubbles is a terrible idea.

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2 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

I’m sure that’s the case in most countries, but I fear it’s worse here than in most other places. Hell, my history textbook tried to downplay how bad the Trail of Tears was. And in the last few years I’ve seen stories were some textbooks in the South omit slavery. SLAVERY! Nothing in Kiwi land can be that bad.

It's mostly worse from a quantitative perspective, because the US has performed so much interference and, most importantly, continues to this day. That's what being the world's sole superpower-hegemon means: it's hard to come to terms with everything you've done if you're still pursuing the very same policies in most regions of the globe.
European countries find it slightly easier to admit some of the evil stuff they've done because most of it ended - with colonialism. There are counter-examples here or there, and the fact that it's slightly easier doesn't mean that it's easy (one need only look at France's complicated relations with its former African colonies to see old habits die hard), but all in all, it's harder for today's major empire to look at its imperialism objectively because it's ongoing. Not to mention the fact that the bad stuff the US does often hides past European misdeeds (Vietnam is a case in point: what the US did there was so bad that it kinda eclipsed what France had done before).
All in all though, the main reason it's worse in the US is because a huge part of the population still buys the "benevolent superpower" crap, while Europeans are far more clear-eyed/cynical as regards the foreign policy of their country. Official propaganda is actually not that different, but patriotism in the US prevents much reckoning from being done.

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49 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I was a staffer for a State Senator who was at one point the chair on the Education Committee. We had multiple examples of textbooks for junior and senior high students that yes, completely omitted slavery’s role in the Civil War. Some textbooks explained that slaves had good lives, or at least better lives than they’d have in Africa. Others omitted that the founding fathers had slaves, and that some of them were for slavery. You’re correct in saying that there aren’t any textbooks that completely omit slavery, as far as I’ve seen, but there are a ton that completely whitewash America’s history with regards to slavery, and that plays a large role in why we still have terrible race relations in this country. The point is that most Americans don’t know much about the dark side of their country’s history. I think A People’s History of the United States should be a mandatory reading for every high school student in this country. We need to stop lying to ourselves about our history, else we’re doomed to repeat our atrocities.

It is really time to point out in any occasion that like "They are better off then in Africa" is the narrative of the slaveowners (most famously by Robert Lee).  I want newspeople and commentators to make sure this is pointed in any moment when the statement is used. Not doing it is just getting to be shameful.

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Can someone explain to me why Nikki Haley is so great. This is way after a fact but I recall some real praise for her on these boards.

The whole matter with the Palestinians is just of real contempt:

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Nikki Haley, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, delivered on Thursday a scathing rebuke of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, saying that he lacks the "courage and the will" to strive for a lasting peace deal with the Israelis.

Speaking at a U.N. Security Council meeting, Haley assailed Abbas for abandoning the landmark Oslo Accords and turning his back on the prospect of U.S.-brokered peace talks between the Israelis and Palestinians.

She said that Abbas had "insulted" President Trumpand advanced wild conspiracy theories in a speech before the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) Central Council earlier this month. 

http://thehill.com/policy/international/370700-haley-abbas-lacks-courage-and-the-will-to-seek-real-peace

Last month in her lecturing to the U.N she absolutely forgot of the constant U.N resolutions passed that allow for Israel and praise for staying when it's very creation was due to the U.N.

There is just the across contempt and hatred for Palestinian across the board is just disgusting. The silence on among the Democratic establishment is just sickening.  To talk of being disrespected when none of the Palestinian demands are even considered is a height of arrogance and hubris.

I know very well of the conflict and regardless of my views of actions the Palestinians are a people who voices are to be considered and do have a right of resistance that does include arms if need be. The latter point is actual a point that drives home by NRA and Republican yet is to be denied to the Palestinians.I 

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