UK Politics: Royal Weddings and Referendums

[A Horse Named Stranger]

4 minutes ago, Blue Roses said:

Yes they do care. And Brexit and the rest of Europe's ongoing issues are definitely idealogical. If Brexit was an economical issue pure and simple it would have been done and dusted by now by both sides.

No, they really don't care who is PM, or is the UK's negotiator in charge. The negotiation red lines are all the same. No deal for a third country can be better than membership, the four freedoms (capital, people, goods and services) constituing the common market are indivisiable. That's about it. Everything else (ECJ jurisidiction etc) just results from it. That the UK doesn't get that is hardly the EU's fault. Cherrypicking or single market ala carte undermines the single market, and thus the EU as a whole. Pure economic self interest of the EU 27. 

The UK is just pretending it can get a better deal than it member states, and pick and choose what it likes and wants from the EU. Again, if you really believe Italy or Austria (or anybody else from the EU 27) have an interest to give the UK better conditions than they enjoy as member states, then you are delusional. Now then, the UK has not come up with an acceptable or workable solution for the EU to those issues. Of course the whole thing gets more complicated by that minor problem called the Irish border and the Good Friday Agreement (I'll leave out Gibraltar, because not as big a problem, if you solve Ireland, then you can solve Gibraltar). 

[Blue Roses]

12 minutes ago, Notone said:

 The negotiation red lines are all the same. No deal for a third country can be better than membership, the four freedoms (capital, people, goods and services) constituing the common market are indivisiable. That's about it. Everything else (ECJ jurisidiction etc) just results from it.

That is ideology ie. the EU will maintain this regardless of any economic benefit or disadvantage. (Or reality....Schengen and Dublin being totally blown apart currently ).

Otherwise, we agree totally that TM's Brexit white paper is just rehashed cherry picking which seeks to gain superior market access without membership. My comment on Italy and Austria is that the mood music is changing in Europe and hence Brussels will double down on it stance to maintain its position. ie. no cherry picking. Not that Austria and Italy are suddenly our friends and will help us. They are just as selfish as everybody else and have their own axes to grind. Brussels sees this an idealogical stance that must be won to maintain its dominant position otherwise everyone will just pile in with their demands inc. Austria and Italy. Hence get Brexit off the sodding table. Which means not going through yet more leadership challenges, general elections or sorry my white paper got eaten by the dog let me wait another few months whilst I write a new one. As Wert said...12 weeks. 

 

 

[Deedles]

And Jeremy Hunt is new Foreign Sec. well, I know some people will be delighted to have him out of Health.

[Which Tyler]

14 minutes ago, Deedles said:

And Jeremy Hunt is new Foreign Sec. well, I know some people will be delighted to have him out of Health.

By "some people" do you mean "everyone who works for, or uses, the NHS - except private contractors"?

[williamjm]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

We have about 12 weeks to do a deal, and not reaching one that at least allows us to enter the 2-year transition period will also cause enormous headaches for the EU as much as us.

I wonder if the best we can hope for now is that whoever is PM by that time is forced into asking for a delay in the exit date because there seems no possibility the UK will be in any way prepared, even if it could decide what it wanted? If I remember correctly, it is possible if the EU agree to it, and although I'm sure the EU would be completely exasperated to get that request, I'd imagine they might be willing to kick the issue down the road a bit and get back to concentrating on their own priorities.

11 minutes ago, Deedles said:

And Jeremy Hunt is new Foreign Sec. well, I know some people will be delighted to have him out of Health.

I'm sure many people's first thought was that at least he isn't in charge of the NHS any more, although it would be better if he had left due to being fired rather than promoted. I wonder if this might make the Brexiteers even more unhappy, because one of their leaders has now been replaced with someone who originally supported Remain. 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

39 minutes ago, Blue Roses said:

That is ideology ie. the EU will maintain this regardless of any economic benefit or disadvantage. (Or reality....Schengen and Dublin being totally blown apart currently ).

 

Schengen is part of the four freedoms (freedom of persons), Dublin is and was BS, and that's now causing a lot of problems. And fuckwitted right wing populists are busy dismantling it, we can agree on that. That's why I refered to the Austrian goverment as cunts, well that and their obviously racism and xenophobia. However, that has no barring on how the EU-UK negotiations progress. I said it before, migration and refugees is atm way higher on the priority list than Brexit. And Brexit is something the EU 27 are in agreement.

11 minutes ago, williamjm said:

I wonder if the best we can hope for now is that whoever is PM by that time is forced into asking for a delay in the exit date because there seems no possibility the UK will be in any way prepared, even if it could decide what it wanted? If I remember correctly, it is possible if the EU agree to it, and although I'm sure the EU would be completely exasperated to get that request, I'd imagine they might be willing to kick the issue down the road a bit and get back to concentrating on their own priorities.

26 minutes ago, Deedles said:

Moving on. The UK has put the exit date into law. And the EU has no interest in postponing the exit indefinately. 

[mormont]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

We have about 12 weeks to do a deal, and not reaching one that at least allows us to enter the 2-year transition period will also cause enormous headaches for the EU as much as us.

'As much as us'? No. Less than us.

The 'no deal' stakes are much higher for the UK, and the EU are not bluffing when they say there are lines they won't cross to get a deal. I know the government's strategy is based on the assumption that the EU will do a deal at the last minute under pressure, and that's not without reason, given precedent. But to say 'the EU need a deal fast' implies that they're desperate to reach a deal, and this gives the UK influence. That's not so. If I'm going to lose £50 and you're going to lose £30 if we don't do a deal, do you 'need a deal fast'?

[williamjm]

1 minute ago, Notone said:

The UK has put the exit date into law.

Laws can be rewritten. If there was a new Government then I'm sure several parts of the recently Brexit-related laws would get rewritten, although whether they'd be rewritten for the better would be a different question.

And the EU has no interest in postponing the exit indefinately.

This seems a bit contradictory with your point that the EU have bigger immediate priorities than Brexit. I don't see that the EU have anything to lose by indulging the British if they want to spend the next few years standing in the corner arguing with themselves.

 

[Deedles]

As much as people like to complain about Brussels bureaucracy, the EU doesn’t actually have an inexhaustible supply of civil servants. Working on attempting to get a deal with the U.K. means they aren’t working on something else. They don’t really want them hanging on indefinitely, or rotating in and out. It’s not going to push them into making a decision, but they won’t be happy to string it out indefinitely either. As an Irish person, Brexit is probably as important to me as to you. As an EU citizen, yeah, it really isn’t. I can’t see, for example, a Dutch MEP caring all that much.

 

[Werthead]

1 hour ago, Notone said:

Schengen is part of the four freedoms (freedom of persons).

Schengen is separate from the four freedoms (although it helps facilitate FOM), and in fact from the EU: Switzerland and Norway are part of Schengen but not the EU, and Britain and Ireland are members of the EU but not part of Schengen.

Countries can also suspend membership of Schengen at any time for pretty much any reason (both Germany and France have done so in recent years).

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I'm sure many people's first thought was that at least he isn't in charge of the NHS any more, although it would be better if he had left due to being fired rather than promoted. I wonder if this might make the Brexiteers even more unhappy, because one of their leaders has now been replaced with someone who originally supported Remain. 

Hunt, to be fair (not words I often utter), had actually fought reasonably well for the NHS in the last few months. I think he'd realised - maybe three years too late - that the NHS had hit rock bottom and needed bailing out, and he fought hard for that and got at least the bare minimum that was required. Typically, the second he started doing something good for the service he's out.

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This seems a bit contradictory with your point that the EU have bigger immediate priorities than Brexit. I don't see that the EU have anything to lose by indulging the British if they want to spend the next few years standing in the corner arguing with themselves.

If the EU think Britain is going to shake off the madness and remain in the EU, they may be willing to string things out further. When Brexit was first mooted they could be more bullish, but after seeing Hungary and Austria elect far-right governments, Italy sign a deal with the anti-immigration lobby and the Netherlands, France and Germany come uncomfortably close to populism, the EU could do with the moderating influence of the UK (historically Britain has done a good job of dealing with countries both to the left and right in Europe), not to mention strong relations in the event of an increased military threat from Russia (now we have some aircraft carriers with planes again, anyway), especially since Trump's weakening of NATO means the EU might have to step up plans to create its own military.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Schengen is separate from the four freedoms (it helps facilitate FOM), and in fact from the EU: Switzerland and Norway are part of Schengen but not the EU, and Britain and Ireland are members of the EU but not part of Schengen.

 

Thanks, that's what I meant, but obviously didn't write. However, Schengen is at least imo a logical consequence of the Freedom of Movement. And moving freely within Europe is obviously one the perks everybody I know enjoys. E.g. a rather smooth border crossing in the holiday season.

Ireland and Britain don't really matter that much in that respect (at least from practical point of view), as most travelers enter the British Islands through airports, and not so much through land crossings.

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

not to mention strong relations in the event of an increased military threat from Russia (now we have some aircraft carriers with planes again, anyway), especially since Trump's weakening of NATO means the EU might have to step up plans to create its own military.

However, Britain was the one country that has consistently objected to creating a supernational (I almost wrote supernatural, thought I'f share that one for laughss) defense or military force outside NATO (US interests, American poodle and so on and so forth). There's a reason why that discussion has gained a new dynamic post Brexit. Those suggestions would've been dead in the water, as Britain would've vetoed it. And yes, I think an EU military force has to come at some point. Trump has accelerated it.

2 hours ago, williamjm said:

This seems a bit contradictory with your point that the EU have bigger immediate priorities than Brexit. I don't see that the EU have anything to lose by indulging the British if they want to spend the next few years standing in the corner arguing with themselves.

 

How so? Getting Brexit off the to-do list and focusing resources elsewhere is not really contradictory to Brexit not being top of the priority list. And it's a pretty consistent thing to say, that we really want clarity and get this thing over with instead of having to deal with a Britain remaining in some legal limbo for eternity. And there's still some other practical stuff, like European elections, a new EU budget, the latter is not independent on the UK's future relationship. A Norway like EEA deal means, Britain will have to pay almost as much as they do now. A Canada like deal means the the UK has to throw in less money. 

[BigFatCoward]

Who the fuck are these 2 latest shipjumpers? It should be illegal to resign if nobody has heard of you anyway. 

[The BlackBear]

13 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Who the fuck are these 2 latest shipjumpers? It should be illegal to resign if nobody has heard of you anyway. 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

It doesn't matter, really. We're bound for a hard Brexit. I've made my peace with that outcome, I suggest everybody else does the same. Brace for impact, and look forward for the next GE in 2019, and hope for re-entry some time in the 2020s or 2030s.

 

[Maltaran]

2 hours ago, BigFatCoward said:

Who the fuck are these 2 latest shipjumpers? It should be illegal to resign if nobody has heard of you anyway. 

Ben Bradley’s most notable achievement was libelling Corbyn and having to pay several thousand pounds to a food bank in his constituency to settle the case

[Derfel Cadarn]

41 minutes ago, Maltarinho said:

Ben Bradley’s most notable achievement was libelling Corbyn and having to pay several thousand pounds to a food bank in his constituency to settle the case

A tory politician forced to give money to the unwashed poor?

It must have killed him.

[Werthead]

 

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It doesn't matter, really. We're bound for a hard Brexit. I've made my peace with that outcome, I suggest everybody else does the same. Brace for impact, and look forward for the next GE in 2019, and hope for re-entry some time in the 2020s or 2030s.

 

I'm already looking into going back to Ireland (where I lived for a year in the 2000s) and riding out the next five years to see what the situation is. Although Ireland will be battered by Brexit as well, so that may not help much.

[mormont]

3 hours ago, Notone said:

It doesn't matter, really. We're bound for a hard Brexit. I've made my peace with that outcome, I suggest everybody else does the same.

Not everyone can, sadly. I can, though it will hurt, but I have friends on whom this has already taken a toll. There are others who may lose their jobs.

[BigFatCoward]

I really feel like employers should be able to take social media posts pre vote into account when deciding which of their workforce to lay off.

[Werthead]

The new health secretary once accepted a £4,000 donation from a thinktank calling for the privatisation of the NHS.

That's encouraging.