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UK Politics: A Third Meaningful Thread

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I saw this quote in some of the coverage which I think perfectly sums up the competence of our government:

EU official says that when leaders asked May what she was going to do if her deal was voted down, she would only reply that she was following her 'Plan A' of getting it through. It was then they decided 'she didn't have a plan so they needed to come up with one for her'.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Nothing Has Changed said:

I suspect the point at which Parliament could revoke before 29 March has now passed.

How do you work that out? They can revoke any time they like.

Edited by Spockydog

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9 minutes ago, Spockydog said:

How do you work that out? They can revoke any time they like.

I think Spockydog meant the lead time to pass the motion in the face of blocking by the ERG.

The timelines have shifted now though with April 12th the new March 29th.

If the deal is rejected in its third “meaningful vote” in the Commons, the UK would be given until 12 April to come to the European Council with its proposals for the way forward.

If the UK agreed to take part in European Parliament elections in May, the possibility would be open for a further extension of several months.

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1 minute ago, Ser Hedge said:

I think Spockydog meant the lead time to pass the motion in the face of blocking by the ERG.

The timelines have shifted now though with April 12th the new March 29th.

If the deal is rejected in its third “meaningful vote” in the Commons, the UK would be given until 12 April to come to the European Council with its proposals for the way forward.

If the UK agreed to take part in European Parliament elections in May, the possibility would be open for a further extension of several months.

None of this matters. Unless May comes up with a way around Berkow, there isn't going to be another vote.

:bang:

 

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Posted (edited)

EU carefully making sure the blood of any no deal Brexit is not on their hands. Don't blame them. Now a no deal happens if MV3 fails (assuming speaker allows it in the first place) and the UK by April 12th do not confirm they will take part in EU Parliament elections and agree to a long delay, and do not come back with any other plan either (of course, any such plan will obviously be shot down, but we ain't telling you that now - but to be fair the UK is not capable of coming with any plans anyway, so it's a bluff that will never be called).

In other words,  hard Brexit on April 12th will be the UK's fault. Sorry, Ireland, we know you bailed out French and German banks out in 2008 by agreeing to kindly transform a banking crisis into a sovereign debt crisis when you really didn't need to, and cut your nurses' and firefighters' pensions and wages when you only needed to let your silly banks default on their European lenders instead of allowing your government to pay off those debts. We need you to take this on the chin for us one more time, attaboy.

Only Frau Merkel can save everybody by overruling this EU election constraint, and finding another way of extending, because I don't see MV3 passing (assuming it even takes place) after May's rant yesterday.

#TheLastAdultInTheRoom

-------------------------------------

PS: The only other option is to revoke A50, but I don't blame MPs if they are concerned about personal safety

Simply unbelievable- this whole thing could have been from a GRRM plot!

Edited by Ser Hedge

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OK, so further to my last post the UK has a bit more time in the event the deal is rejected.

Trouble is, what indication is there MPs will not piss it away stupidly like they have done before. 

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5% of the population who voted in the referendum has signed the petition. That's a huge number of people.

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3 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

5% of the population who voted in the referendum has signed the petition. That's a huge number of people.

But not enough. 

Arguments still rage about the low turnout for the referendum - 5% won't persuade anyone.

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17 minutes ago, Mosi Mynn said:

But not enough. 

Arguments still rage about the low turnout for the referendum - 5% won't persuade anyone.

but it should be enough given the speed at which the signatures have happened to make the government pause and think, "maybe its not such a good idea to completely ignore such a large group of people.  this could cost us at the next General Election."   Only one problem with that,  we don't actually have an opposition party.   But dammit it Should be enough in any other universe but this one.

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5 minutes ago, Pebble said:

but it should be enough given the speed at which the signatures have happened to make the government pause and think, "maybe its not such a good idea to completely ignore such a large group of people.  this could cost us at the next General Election."   Only one problem with that,  we don't actually have an opposition party.   But dammit it Should be enough in any other universe but this one.

Is there any indication that people who voted in the petition weren’t already remain voters?

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2 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

Is there any indication that people who voted in the petition weren’t already remain voters?

No,   there is not.  only some comments I've read claiming to be people who have changed their minds.  There is evidence however to suggest that some of those people where unable to vote last time but can now they have turned 18.

 

but the point is completely ignoring 48% of your voting population for 3 years and counting and basically telling them to shut up and get inline should mean you take a hammering from those 48%in the next election.   But this is not a sane world.

 

I am not saying you should pander to the 48% but at least acknowledge they exist and may have valid concerns.  

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17 minutes ago, Pebble said:

to make the government pause

Who is the government?

May?

Remainer cabinet ministers?

Leaver cabinet minsters?

The civil service?

The ERG?

HOC?

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4 minutes ago, Ser Hedge said:

Who is the government?

May?

Remainer cabinet ministers?

Leaver cabinet minsters?

The civil service?

The ERG?

HOC?

The party in power.  so the Conservatives.   (I know there are some wanting to remain, but most voters are unlikely to know if there local MP is a remainer, and still may end up getting punished as they are part of the Torry Party)      I would also add that due to Corbyns lack of any opposition then Labour should also get punished in any election by remainers.

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8 hours ago, Spockydog said:

None of this matters. Unless May comes up with a way around Berkow, there isn't going to be another vote.

:bang:

It doesn't really matter, though. May will try to pass her deal next week. Maybe she finds a way past Bercow, or maybe she doesn't. Maybe she manages to strong-arm enough MPs to support her deal, or maybe she doesn't. If by the end of next week the HoC hasn't passed May's deal (for whatever reason) the end result is the same: the UK crashes out of the EU on the 12th of April unless it commits to holding European elections.

7 hours ago, Ser Hedge said:

EU carefully making sure the blood of any no deal Brexit is not on their hands. Don't blame them.

Only Frau Merkel can save everybody by overruling this EU election constraint.

The EU has lots of serious problems (its role in the Irish banking crisis may be one of them, it's not a subject I'm knowledgeable enough about to give an informed opinion), but Brexit is not on the list. This one actually is entirely the UKs fault. The EU negotiated an exit deal in good faith with the PM and has bent over backwards repeatedly to try and accommodate Britain's parliamentary chaos. Also, Angela Merkel is not the EU's dictator and cannot overrule the comission's decisions (and the decision that was made was a French-German proposal in the first place...).

23 minutes ago, Pebble said:

Only one problem with that,  we don't actually have an opposition party.

I agree. What is needed right now is someone to take on themselves the mantle of Remain, assume the political cost of either seeking a long extension to A50 or plain revoking it and try to form a cross party majority to hold a VONC and then pass said measure. It doesn't even need to be a member of the opposition. A remainer conservative that could command a sizeable amount of MPs from their party could try and win over Labour and give it a go. Unfortunately, this person doesn't exist.

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Small factucal correction, on what is actually on offer, or passed by the EU.

Right now, there's a extension till April 12th. That's it.

April 12th there are four ways to proceed.

Route A) May's deal passes the HoC till then, and thus it gets the prolonged short extension until the EU elections.

Route B) May fails to get her deal thru the HoC. The UK asks for a Long Extension two years+, takes part in the EU elections, and gets time to solve this mess, with an electin a new referendum, or by the Queen putting the whole Westminster lot into the Tower and takes charge of the country (or whatever)

Route C) May fails to get her deal thru the HoC. The UK does not ask for a Long Extension and thus crashes out. Which is the default, maybe I should have labeled this as route A instead.

Route D) The UK revokes Article 50 within the next three weeks.

9 hours ago, Nothing Has Changed said:

OK, so further to my last post the UK has a bit more time in the event the deal is rejected.

Trouble is, what indication is there MPs will not piss it away stupidly like they have done before. 

Small objection. The big time waster was May and her goverment. Her first action after triggering article 50 was calling that snap election, and thus pissing away three precious month the UK now desperately needs, well the ERG doesn't, but let's ignore them. Then next big waste of time was Davis inglroius reign as Brexit Minister, and well, her Travesty's Goverment arguing with itself which impossible demands it's gonna put before the EU, then climbing down from those to still unacceptable demands. From Lancaster to Checkers to May's deal. Then PM May pulled her deal from a vote before Christmas, only for it to be defeated in January. With her entertaining the notion she could get significant concessions. Which she didn't get, and have her deal voted down again, with another month pissed away.

You can criticize MPs for not taking action way sooner. But the May administration has kicked the can down the road for a long time, and now they should shoulder the blame for running out of road.

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Quote

the Queen putting the whole Westminster lot into the Tower and takes charge of the country (or whatever)

This needs to be an option on any future referendum.

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46 minutes ago, Mosi Mynn said:

its up to 2.75M now.   

And ignoring the illegality and lies surrounding the 2016 referendum is causing irreparable damage to public trust.  But then the views of those She has broken that trust with don't count.

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19 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

You can criticize MPs for not taking action way sooner. But the May administration has kicked the can down the road for a long time, and now they should shoulder the blame for running out of road.

Have to agree with this, but I think it has almost been by design. The kicking the can down the road seems to have been a constant tactic of Mays in order to coerce MPs into doing exactly what she wants. Its been a very single minded and obtuse way to run proceedings and it has put us in the perilous position we are in now. Almost every single one of the decisions you mentioned now looks like a huge misfire, especially the election. 

She had any number of options open to her. Had she waited to to trigger A50, had she not called an election, had she made proper preparations for a no deal scenario then we might have been able to enter discussions with the EU from even a modicum of power and respectability. Instead she has fumbled the entire thing. 

Also, not a fan of Davis, but she also managed to completely undermine him at every turn and reduce our bargaining position constantly. 

 

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Just now, Pebble said:

its up to 2.75M now.   

And ignoring the illegality and lies surrounding the 2016 referendum is causing irreparable damage to public trust.  But then the views of those She has broken that trust with don't count.

Both sides lied.  Neither side took it seriously at all - except with regards to certain individuals boosting their public image.

I totally get the need to stand by a referendum result.  But the whole thing is, was and continues to be totally farcical.

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