US Politics: Vaguely above average Tuesday

[Zorral]

The North Dakota Dem caucus, which has, what? about 5 people? went for Sanders! I wonder if my dad would have. He was a Dem in a state and community where they were decidedly in the minority, very minor minority. Of course times have changed so much since his political days, who knows where he'd have been now. But I would guess he wouldn't have turned rethug -- or have liked Biden either.  Though I think he would have liked Obama. But he sure as hell wouldn't have voted for Hillary, I feel almost certain.  But then, he was a Dem through and through, though, like his own father and grandfather, he preferred the old progressive socialist prairie alliances politically.  But that time was long gone by his time.

[DMC]

10 minutes ago, Simon Steele said:

I know right, because no young people voted, not even one. I agree with you 200 percent. This attitude worked in 2016, it'll work again in 2020! Keep up the great analysis.

And whatever young means to you, I'm talking about Bernie's huge coalition of non-Boomers who do vote. I think being dismissive and condescending to them is definitely going to work though. 

Right, because I was referring to all Bernie supporter under 45.  Great analysis yourself.

[Centrist Simon Steele]

4 minutes ago, TrueMetis said:

No, there very very similar. Indeed there's actually flow between the two.

 

Sitting here on the outside I can't wait for Biden to tell Trump he's full of shit live on tv.

Well, I hope they vote for Trump since you seem to think you stand in such a pure place. I know this isn't purity politics though. You're just stereotyping a huge base of voters as too impure to be treated as human. 

[Centrist Simon Steele]

2 minutes ago, DMC said:

Right, because I was referring to all Bernie supporter under 45.  Great analysis yourself.

Those are young Bernie voters. Instead of going into some weird aggression mode to assert your dominance over the ignorant masses, try to understand what they're referring to. It may not be your arbitrary definition that defines "young." It may be someone else's arbitrary definition that defines them as "not old."

[DMC]

7 minutes ago, Stego said:

Meme's are the only reason Biden won the nomination. The Biden/Obama memes put him in a positive light for the first time in his career.

It's very cute how people think Twitter wars and memes on social media actually reflect the reality of the Democratic electorate, let alone the general electorate.

[DMC]

Just now, Simon Steele said:

Those are young Bernie voters. Instead of going into some weird aggression mode to assert your dominance over the ignorant masses, try to understand what they're referring to. It may not be your arbitrary definition that defines "young." It may be someone else's arbitrary definition that defines them as "not old."

"Young voters," generally describe 18-29 year olds.  That's not my arbitrary definition, that's the definition most pollsters and analysts agreed to.  Moreover, if you bothered to read my initial reply, I was largely referring to the fact Bernie was relying on a boost in youth turnout to win the primaries, and it never materialized for him, so such voters are largely - like I said - "magical" or imaginary anyway.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

12 minutes ago, Simon Steele said:

Scot, the bitterness (rightfully) will hang around for a large chunk of disenfranchised voters (remember, Bernie has 600 to 800 of Biden's votes in the primaries right now), and who are we to be dismissive of this? Establishment Dems worked overtime villainizing the mythical Bernie Bro, denigrating an entire coalition of its voters. The only ones handing the victory to Trump are the ones that burned every bridge to secure a victory for...Joe Biden. Instead of blaming the festering (completely valid) apathy many voters are now feeling, the moderates and establishment need to actually put more effort into repairing relationships with voters than the already exorbitantly high effort they put into painting these voters as being as bad as Trump's racist, violent base. Prediction: they won't do it, and Biden won't win. 

Simon,

And when these voters choose not to come out and vote how are they disenfranchised?  Bernie is losing because his “coalition” isn’t showing up at the polls.  Or do you believe there is some scheme to hand the nomination to Biden?

[A Horse Named Stranger]

32 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Again to reiterate @Tywin et al. s point - while only 12% were Sanders-trump, 24% of Sanders voters did not vote for Clinton - they voted for Stein or Johnson or wrote in Sanders. That is quite a lot.  

But this is again working under the assumption that they would've voted Clinton in GE, if Sanders just had dropped out earlier.

Possible, but not likely imho. The Sadners-Johnson voters are just bizarre. Almost same craazy subsection of Sanders-Trumpers. The Sanders-Stein voters, they are presumably the most likely voters Clinton missed out on. But there I'd propose it was the otehr way round. Those were more likely Green voters that felt attracted towards Sanders in the Democratic primary. But were never gonna vote Clinton.

So in short, I think those were third party voters, who participated in the Democratic primary, and not Democratic voters that moved away because of Sanders after the primary.

[Centrist Simon Steele]

5 minutes ago, DMC said:

"Young voters," generally describe 18-29 year olds.  That's not my arbitrary definition, that's the definition most pollsters and analysts agreed to.  Moreover, if you bothered to read my initial reply, I was largely referring to the fact Bernie was relying on a boost in youth turnout to win the primaries, and it never materialized for him, so such voters are largely - like I said - "magical" or imaginary anyway.

Yet he has 600 to 800 of Biden's votes. No lack of turnout there. Whatever you want to arbitrarily call those voters, I don't care, but they're not going to help the establishment who has demonized them. You can also say, "Oh we weren't demonizing them" but the only focus on them has been what a bunch of monsters Bernie supporters are. So, I don't care what you think is a well established definition, this pedantry is exactly why you moderates are going to lose. You argue little things that just don't fucking matter to get out of problematizing something of substance.

[Stego]

11 minutes ago, DMC said:

It's very cute how people think Twitter wars and memes on social media actually reflect the reality of the Democratic electorate, let alone the general electorate.

But Russian memes swayed the election?

You're out of touch.

[TrueMetis]

9 minutes ago, Simon Steele said:

Well, I hope they vote for Trump since you seem to think you stand in such a pure place. I know this isn't purity politics though. You're just stereotyping a huge base of voters as too impure to be treated as human. 

I'm am so the god damn opposite of purity politics it's not even funny.

But sure let's pretend it's purity politics to recognize that a lot of people on the left (I'm not gonna say "far" left, let's be real Bernie not far left and neither are the majority of his supporters) are susceptible to the same kind of populism that created the alt right.

Christ, do you even know what purity politics is?

[Guest]

@Ser Scot A Ellison,

As gets pointed out here constantly, no one "deserves" anyone's vote. Yes, it's paramount to beat Trump. But that doesn't change the fact that the Biden and establishment camps can't continue taking the votes of the progressive wing for granted. 

And the vitriol that gets aimed at Sanders supporters is just as bad, and the tendency to view his supporters as a monolithic group is much more pronounced, and I'll be damned if, just because I "have" to vote for Biden in November, I'll just sit here and eat shit from the establishment for the next God knows how long about how *I'm* the one that's toxic, or how *my* support is dividing the party.

For all the ridicule that gets thrown around here for basing a campaign on trying to turn out young voters (which everyone will agree that Sanders cleans up among all demographics of younger voters), no one here really seems to recognize that at one point or another, those young voters will turn into older voters, and at that point, those older voters will remember back when the Democratic party told them that it didn't have room for them, because every single one of them was too radical and too toxic, because they happened to support someone who had a small, but loudly toxic, group of supporters, even though that group has been denounced by the candidate.

[Centrist Simon Steele]

7 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Simon,

And when these voters choose not to come out and vote how are they disenfranchised?  Bernie is losing because his “coalition” isn’t showing up at the polls.  Or do you believe there is some scheme to hand the nomination to Biden?

Those 600 delegates suggest people are coming out to vote for Bernie, no? I understand there is a narrative that people didn't turn out for him so he lost, but I'm not talking about them. I'm talking about people who did vote joining that group of non-voters. How many of the primary voters have to refuse to vote for it to impact Biden? Whatever that number is, right now I sense even more are actually actively protesting the Biden nomination. 

 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

1 minute ago, Simon Steele said:

Yet he has 600 to 800 of Biden's votes. No lack of turnout there. Whatever you want to arbitrarily call those voters, I don't care, but they're not going to help the establishment who has demonized them. You can also say, "Oh we weren't demonizing them" but the only focus on them has been what a bunch of monsters Bernie supporters are. So, I don't care what you think is a well established definition, this pedantry is exactly why you moderates are going to lose. You argue little things that just don't fucking matter to get out of problematizing something of substance.

Right Biden is beating Bernie at the polls.  What do you propose to do to change that fact?

[Stego]

1 minute ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Right Biden is beating Bernie at the polls.  What do you propose to do to change that fact?

There is no changing anything at this point. It's on to 2024. (And hopefully a progressive that can win.)

[JGP]

19 minutes ago, TrueMetis said:

Sitting here on the outside I can't wait for Biden to tell Trump he's full of shit live on tv.

 

[white knuckles the edges of the podium]

'Listen you a dog chested, belly exposing Brony rider-- you shut your cheesepipe. It's making me lactate.' 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

5 minutes ago, Simon Steele said:

Those 600 delegates suggest people are coming out to vote for Bernie, no? I understand there is a narrative that people didn't turn out for him so he lost, but I'm not talking about them. I'm talking about people who did vote joining that group of non-voters. How many of the primary voters have to refuse to vote for it to impact Biden? Whatever that number is, right now I sense even more are actually actively protesting the Biden nomination. 

I’m confused.  Sanders clearly has the second highest vote total.  What do you propose that entitles Sanders and his supporters to receive?

[Centrist Simon Steele]

1 minute ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Right Biden is beating Bernie at the polls.  What do you propose to do to change that fact?

I think we're talking past each other. In battleground states where Bernie took in roughly half of the delegates that Biden did, those people staying home could swing that to Trump. I am not asking to change the outcome of Biden beating Bernie. I think it was "fair" in the sense no formal rules were broken. But the way Bernie and his supporters were treated is going to cause a huge problem in November if the Dem party just moves on and focuses on Trump. They created a problem that I don't believe they can fix.

Scot, this really bothers me a lot because I do think a ton is on the line and Biden is not worse than Trump. But I don't feel it's my place to go out and convince fellow comrades to "do the right thing." They believe they are. The fight to get them back is going to take massive outreach which I don't think the establishment is ready to do.

[DMC]

4 minutes ago, Simon Steele said:

So, I don't care what you think is a well established definition, this pedantry is exactly why you moderates are going to lose. You argue little things that just don't fucking matter to get out of problematizing something of substance.

The "pedantry" matters because 18-29 year olds account for about 10% of the electorate whereas 18-45 year olds account for about 30%.  That's a big important difference and simply not what I was talking about - because it's the 18-29 year olds that historically have low turnout, no 30-45 year olds.  But I like how you take offense even of me trying to be clear on who I was talking about.  Your kneejerk anger is adorable.

[JGP]

The coronavirus and incoming recession are game changers. The DNC could give the nod to a beat up turnip and it'll beat Trump in the next GE.