Corona Horse, Corona Rider - Covid #9

[Fragile Bird]

11 minutes ago, A True Kaniggit said:

But Louisiana dropped back from 9 to 10 in the U.S. according to that worldometer site (by cases not deaths) .  Meh, we’ll be back up by the end of the day.

Not saying my state is asking for it, but when I went shopping yesterday, morons were still shaking each other’s hands  .

 

The numbers in my province keep going up, more than 400 new cases so far today. This is not unexpected. As I have said before, about a million people came home to Canada in the last two weeks, about 1/3 from the US, 1/3 from Europe, and rest from everywhere else. The province lists information about every case, and although 65% of cases are now community cases ('close contact'), lots of different countries are listed, travel to Egypt, Colombia, the Phillipines, France, Italy, the UK, the US, Viet Nam. 

The buzz word here is "bubble". Establish a bubble around yourself. Do not break the bubble. Do not pierce the bubble of others. Act, indeed, as if you have the virus.

The chief medical officer of Canada tells us this week is very important, because stay at home orders and business closure orders went out three weeks ago in the big provinces, two weeks ago in the smaller provinces. So far we seem to be failing.

[Kalbear]

My state (Washington) looks like it's doing better - but unfortunately that's possibly an illusion, as the data from labs and hospitals has completely overwhelmed the system designed to use it, so they're doing manual entry and removal of dupes, and we're over 3 days behind. Bah.

 

[Zorral]

29 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

I don't know, obsessive? Actually, I have a life long habit of staring news right in the face, good or bad. Get it out. Know it. Don't hide it. Say it. Voldemort.

That's kinda what I suspected.  We hang on hard to any sense of control we can, and this is your way. Totally get that.

I have several coping mechanisms too -- most of which I can't use in this situation.  Giving Stuff to my neighbor though, is one of them, and I can use that!

[Mudguard]

1 minute ago, Fragile Bird said:

The numbers in my province keep going up, more than 400 new cases so far today. This is not unexpected. As I have said before, about a million people came home to Canada in the last two weeks, about 1/3 from the US, 1/3 from Europe, and rest from everywhere else. The province lists information about every case, and although 65% of cases are now community cases ('close contact'), lots of different countries are listed, travel to Egypt, Colombia, the Phillipines, France, Italy, the UK, the US, Viet Nam. 

The buzz word here is "bubble". Establish a bubble around yourself. Do not break the bubble. Do not pierce the bubble of others. Act, indeed, as if you have the virus..

The chief medical officer of Canada tells us this week is very imporftant, because stay at home orders and business closure orders went out three weeks ago in the big provinces, two weeks ago in the smaller provinces. So far we seem to be failing.

California and New York are in week 3 post lockdown, so we should also be seeing some sort of effect soon if not already.  I think that there will be some bending of the curve, but it may not be enough.  We are also having testing issues which are confounding analysis of the results.  I think the worse case (besides having no effect) is that the doubling rate is only slowed, e.g. from 4 days to 7 days, which is better than nothing but wouldn't be nearly enough when the numbers of new cases each day is so high.  I have to admit, I'm skeptical we've done enough to reverse things like in Wuhan.  

I'm not sure that we have the will to lock down things like they did in China, so there isn't much more we can do.  The mass wearing of masks is picking up a lot of steam and I think it's inevitable that we'll make the mask recommendation change, so that should help some, but who knows how much.  

[JoannaL]

6 minutes ago, Mudguard said:

 

I'm not sure that we have the will to lock down things like they did in China, so there isn't much more we can do.  The mass wearing of masks is picking up a lot of steam and I think it's inevitable that we'll make the mask recommendation change, so that should help some, but who knows how much.  

I think this will happen here as well. It is scientifically clear now, that masks help (not as a 100% protection, but as a tool to slow the spreading). The mask recommendation is IMO only not yet changed on a countrywide level because here there are not enough masks, there are barely enough for the people who need them most. As soon as this problem is solved there will be a change of recommendation and we will be all wearing them for a long time to come.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

The updates are helpful, especially the international ones. They really don’t report on much here outside of China and Italy, and even that is pretty poor unless you consume a lot of news, and frankly, it’s getting harder and harder to stare at the TV or listen to the umpteenth podcast about the pandemic.

[Zorral]

11 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

it’s getting harder and harder to stare at the TV or listen to the umpteenth podcast about the pandemic.

Ya -- and I'm just not doing it.  There are days when I wasn't able to do it at all. There will more of those kinds of days surely.

I do my morning news browse as I always have, cup of tea in hand, but I don't go nearly as many places.  If it isn't a Zoom class day I listen with the sound very low to the 10-noon Brian Lehrer program on WNYC -- both de Blasio and Cuomo are on frequently in person, plus any number of usually trustworthy knowledgeable figures. Maybe another short browse before dinner. That's about it.  If there is anything I personally need to know, my partner, or you guys, somebody, will tell me.  Or the radio tuned to WBGO Jazz will.

Also, I've been doing this longer than a lot of you and longer than a lot of people I know.  I personally went pretty much self isolation and DISTANCE first week of March. The total thing with improvised mask (then) and old left over gloves started on for me on the 10th. Even back then the news was always worse, which is why I started so early.  So much reading in history of plagues . . . .

After dinner and clean-up is sacred time.

[AncalagonTheBlack]

Just read this article that the 21 day lockdown may not be that effective

https://arxiv.org/abs/2003.12055

https://github.com/rajeshrinet/pyross

https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/trends/coronavirus-india-needs-49-day-lockdown-not-21-say-cambridge-researchers/story/399594.html

Quote

R Adhikari and Rajesh Singh from the Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics in the University of Cambridge say their study is based on the interpretation that the lockdown on March 25, removed all social contacts and confined everyone to their homes. They also acknowledged that this appears to be an "optimistic" interpretation but that it allows them to assess the outcome.

Singh and Adhikari took into account four different control protocols. The first scenario is the current 21-day lockdown. While it reduces the rate of infectives, it does not do much when it comes to reducing their number in order to prevent a resurgence. In this scenario, they found that the probability of a resurgence after the lockdown is pretty high.

Comparison of 4 lockdown scenarios - link

[Paxter]

53 minutes ago, Arakan said:

I think it’s still too early for Italy. Yes cases are a level down but still rose again from 4,053 yesterday to 4,782 today. That’s statistically significant. Problem with Italy is that there is no systematic testing which means it’s hard to evaluate a trend. I think the situation in the North is „under control“ for the moment. But we should have a more focused look on regions. The huge fear among Italians is that the South will be hit very hard in the coming weeks. And this can lead into a catastrophy much worse than what we have seen so far. Sicily, Campania, Calabria, Apulia (17 Million People) are really poor regions especially compared to the North. They lack basic health care infrastructure and resemble more a third world country (not much better level than the Balkans for example). 

I was simply citing the current data as evidence for stabilization. I am not declaring a peak for Italy, though of course, it's possible the peak has been reached if the national lockdown works in the manner hoped.

As a Calabrese by ancestry, I am well aware of deficiencies in public health services in the Mezzagiorno. 

 

[Mudguard]

21 minutes ago, AncalagonTheBlack said:

Just read this article that the 21 day lockdown may not be that effective

https://arxiv.org/abs/2003.12055

https://github.com/rajeshrinet/pyross

https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/trends/coronavirus-india-needs-49-day-lockdown-not-21-say-cambridge-researchers/story/399594.html

Comparison of 4 lockdown scenarios - link

This paper is essentially the same as the Harvard paper that Ran posted earlier.  It's not saying that a lockdown is ineffective.  It's saying that you need to periodically apply the lockdown (scenario (c) in your linked figure) to keep the numbers suppress because as soon as you lift the lockdown, the numbers will rise again, which is expected.  

[Zorral]

Quote

 

"It is even more shameful for a person to pay no heed to his own body and to fail to protect it against the plague the best he is able, and then to infect and poison others who might have remained alive if he had taken care of his body as he should have.

He is thus responsible before God for his neighbor’s death and is a murderer many times over. Indeed, such people behave as though a house were burning in the city and nobody were trying to put the fire out. Instead they give leeway to the flames so that the whole city is consumed, saying that if God so willed, he could save the city without water to quench the fire.

No, my dear friends, that is no good. Use medicine; take potions which can help you; fumigate the house, yard, and street; shun persons and places wherever your neighbor does not need your presence or has recovered, and act like a man who wants to help put out the burning city."

- Martin Luther, "Whether One May Flee from a Deadly Plague"

 

For all runners, etc. who refuse to be mindful, refuse to wear masks, refuse to DISTANCE and ISOLATE.

[Arakan]

16 minutes ago, Paxter said:

I was simply citing the current data as evidence for stabilization. I am not declaring a peak for Italy, though of course, it's possible the peak has been reached if the national lockdown works in the manner hoped.

As a Calabrese by ancestry, I am well aware of deficiencies in public health services in the Mezzagiorno. 

 

And all I am saying is that we have to take a closer look on regional levels. And we still have no clear picture. Testing is still too erratic in many countries, there is testing backlog etc. I agree that Lombardy has been stabilized wrt new cases. But that is all for the moment. Hope for the best, expect the worst. 

[Mudguard]

49 minutes ago, JoannaL said:

I think this will happen here as well. It is scientifically clear now, that masks help (not as a 100% protection, but as a tool to slow the spreading). The mask recommendation is IMO only not yet changed on a countrywide level because here there are not enough masks, there are barely enough for the people who need them most. As soon as this problem is solved there will be a change of recommendation and we will be all wearing them for a long time to come.

I think we should recommend using homemade/DIY masks until the supply of surgical masks improves.  If the worry is that people will buy masks off the shelves and leave none for health care providers, the easy solution is for the government to step in and manage the sale and distribution of surgical and N95 grade masks.  The excuses for not recommending mask usage, whether DIY masks or other types of masks if they already have them, by the general population seem really weak to me.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

45 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Ya -- and I'm just not doing it.  There are days when I wasn't able to do it at all. There will more of those kinds of days surely.

I do my morning news browse as I always have, cup of tea in hand, but I don't go nearly as many places.  If it isn't a Zoom class day I listen with the sound very low to the 10-noon Brian Lehrer program on WNYC -- both de Blasio and Cuomo are on frequently in person, plus any number of usually trustworthy knowledgeable figures. Maybe another short browse before dinner. That's about it.  If there is anything I personally need to know, my partner, or you guys, somebody, will tell me.  Or the radio tuned to WBGO Jazz will.

Also, I've been doing this longer than a lot of you and longer than a lot of people I know.  I personally went pretty much self isolation and DISTANCE first week of March. The total thing with improvised mask (then) and old left over gloves started on for me on the 10th. Even back then the news was always worse, which is why I started so early.  So much reading in history of plagues . . . .

After dinner and clean-up is sacred time.

I take the most joy in listening to my favorite sports podcasts. The hosts are clearly going insane in real time. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

22 minutes ago, Mudguard said:

This paper is essentially the same as the Harvard paper that Ran posted earlier.  It's not saying that a lockdown is ineffective.  It's saying that you need to periodically apply the lockdown (scenario (c) in your linked figure) to keep the numbers suppress because as soon as you lift the lockdown, the numbers will rise again, which is expected.  

True, but how long will this be sustainable? People will reach a breaking point.

[Paxter]

2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

True, but how long will this be sustainable? People will reach a breaking point.

There’s also the argument that a rapid ramp up in health care capacity will let us deal somewhat better with a spike - so a delayed spike is better than no change at at all.

[Mudguard]

Just now, Tywin et al. said:

True, but how long will this be sustainable? People will reach a breaking point.

Yeah, intermittent lockdowns is a terrible plan.  Not practical and I agree that it wouldn't be tolerated by the public.  However, the papers presented extremely simplified scenarios, that aren't what you are limited to in the real world.  In the real world, we can add containment measures, once we get the numbers low enough, that will allow you to maintain the case numbers low so that you won't have to implement another lockdown.  Containment means mass testing, contact tracing of all new cases, and quarantining of these individuals.  This isn't possible though until we get the case numbers way down.

[Mudguard]

5 minutes ago, Paxter said:

There’s also the argument that a rapid ramp up in health care capacity will let us deal somewhat better with a spike - so a delayed spike is better than no change at at all.

See my response to Tywin.  There is no reason to allow the spike to happen once, of if, we can get the numbers under control.  The papers present artificial scenarios, like doing nothing after you end the lockdown, that would predictably lead to a massive resurgence of cases.  No one in there right mind would do this.

[The Monkey]

As a Swede, it's really fascinating to consider how different life is in my country is right now compared to the vast majority of the world's counties, including all of Europe. 

I read articles and listen to podcasts from Europe and North America where they chide at people hanging out in the park in groups of three, even ridiculing people jogging alone. In Sweden, the restaurants, bars, cafe's and shopping malls are still open. There are far less people drinking and eating inside, but the outdoor areas of the pubs are packed with people on sunny days. A friend yesterday asked me if I wanted to go the movies, and I was shocked to learn the cinemas are still operating. I haven't seen a single person with a face mask (alright that could have more to do with the fact that no store has them in stock). 

It's like the rest of the world has locked down, and in Sweden stands alone in its old ways. Obviously the coronavirus has an enormous effect on daily life in Sweden as well, but you can barely tell by walking the street. 

The whole basis of the Swedish government's relaxed approach is the hope that people conform to the social contract. They hope people will abide by the recommendations and advise of the government by their own volition, and don't need direct orders. This in turn relies on an extreme level of trust between the people and the government agencies. I myself am fairly sceptical this will work out as they hope. The social contract might have been sufficiently strong in the 70s to pull something like this of, but no longer.

Obviously no one will know what the best approach was until a year or more down the line, when we can count our dead. I am equally sceptical of mandated complete lockdowns being effectively in place for months and months. It's a huge thing to ask people who have spend their entire lives in freedom to not leave their tiny flat until the autumn. Especially as the psychological toll of this pandemic increases the need for social contact and intimacy even more. All credit to those who manage to bear it, but I think the number of curfew infractions after a month of quarantine will increase dramatically. 

[Maithanet]

3 minutes ago, Mudguard said:

Containment means mass testing, contact tracing of all new cases, and quarantining of these individuals.  This isn't possible though until we get the case numbers way down.

And we get testing way up.  I feel like I'm beating a dead horse here, but without widespead, easy to access, relatively quick testing, any containment strategy is more or less doomed to fail.  If people don't know they have it, they aren't staying home.  And even if they suspect they might have it and do self-quarantine, they aren't contacting everyone they interacted with in the previous week to make sure they self-quarantine as well without being sure that they indeed positive.