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The Map Guy

TWOW POV Chapter Count Powerball Lottery!

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Posted (edited)

Hey guys, I just want to do something different.

For fun and bragging rights ... lets play the lottery with TWOW POV Chapter counts!

I list a POV character and you guess how many chapters they will have in TWOW.

If guessed correctly, you get one point for each POV.

For the Powerball, you get five points if guess the Total Chapter Count in TWOW.

For an additional bonus three points each, you have to guess correctly who or where the Prologue and Epilogue chapters belong to or take place.

  1. Aeron Greyjoy ... 
  2. Areo Hotah ... 
  3. Arianne Martell ... 
  4. Arya Stark ... 
  5. Asha Greyjoy ... 
  6. Barristan Selmy ... 
  7. Bran Stark ... 
  8. Brienne of Tarth ... 
  9. Cersei Lannister ... 
  10. Daenerys Targaryen ... 
  11. Davos Seaworth ... 
  12. Jaime Lannister ... 
  13. Jon Snow ... 
  14. Jon Connington ... 
  15. Melisandre ... 
  16. Samwell Tarly ... 
  17. Sansa Stark ... 
  18. Theon Greyjoy ... 
  19. Tyrion Lannister ... 
  20. Victarion Greyjoy ... 

 

  • Total Chapter Count ... 
  • Prologue (who or where) ... 
  • Epilogue (who or where) ... 

Edited: Total Chapter Count does not include the (2) Prologue & Epilogue. But if you guess that TWOW doesn't have a Prologue or Epilogue, and TWOW really didn't have them ... you will get the 3 bonus points for each one.

 

Maximum Score: 31

Like they lottery, it involves a lot of luck. Like the stock market, we can roughly predict a trend from previous books, or by guessing the character's fate.

So when TWOW finally does comes out, we can determine a winner with the highest score without reading the book yet.

 

Also, feel free to edit your count whenever you want ... as long as it is before TWOW's release date (whenever that is). We all change our minds sometimes.
For example:
Some may predict that Aegon will sit on the Iron Throne and give the Jon-Connington-Chapters a high chapter count.
And then you read on the forums a TWOW prediction like this ....

 

Anyways may the best fan win!

Edited by The Map Guy
The two Prologue & Epilogue should not be included in the Total Chapter Count

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Posted (edited)
On 4/10/2020 at 3:56 PM, The Map Guy said:
  1. Aeron Greyjoy ... 3
  2. Areo Hotah ... 2
  3. Arianne Martell ... 6
  4. Arya Stark ... 6
  5. Asha Greyjoy ... 5
  6. Barristan Selmy ... 6
  7. Bran Stark ... 5
  8. Brienne of Tarth ... 5
  9. Cersei Lannister ... 5
  10. Daenerys Targaryen ... 10
  11. Davos Seaworth ... 1
  12. Jaime Lannister ... 5
  13. Jon Snow ... 8
  14. Jon Connington ... 2
  15. Melisandre ... 3
  16. Samwell Tarly ... 5
  17. Sansa Stark ... 5
  18. Theon Greyjoy ... 3
  19. Tyrion Lannister ... 5
  20. Victarion Greyjoy ... 3

 

  • Total Chapter Count ... 93
  • Prologue (who or where) ... Westerlands
  • Epilogue (who or where) ... Nightfort

 

Edited by The Map Guy

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On 4/10/2020 at 1:56 PM, The Map Guy said:
  1. Aeron Greyjoy ... 2
  2. Areo Hotah ... 1
  3. Arianne Martell ... 3
  4. Arya Stark ... 7
  5. Asha Greyjoy ... 3
  6. Barristan Selmy ... 2
  7. Bran Stark ... 6
  8. Brienne of Tarth ... 3
  9. Cersei Lannister ... 6
  10. Daenerys Targaryen ... 8
  11. Davos Seaworth ... 4
  12. Jaime Lannister ... 3
  13. Jon Snow ... 7
  14. Jon Connington ... 1
  15. Melisandre ... 2
  16. Samwell Tarly ... 4
  17. Sansa Stark ... 7
  18. Theon Greyjoy ... 3
  19. Tyrion Lannister ... 7
  20. Victarion Greyjoy ... 3

 

  • Total Chapter Count ... 83
  • Prologue (who or where) ... Casterly Rock - arrival of Jeyne and Edmure. 
  • Epilogue (who o. No epilogue.

 

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  1. Aeron Greyjoy ... 3
  2. Areo Hotah ... 1
  3. Arianne Martell ... 4
  4. Arya Stark ... 4
  5. Asha Greyjoy ... 3
  6. Barristan Selmy ... 2
  7. Bran Stark ... 4
  8. Brienne of Tarth ... 3
  9. Cersei Lannister ... 3
  10. Daenerys Targaryen ... 7
  11. Davos Seaworth ... 4
  12. Jaime Lannister ... 4
  13. Jon Snow ... 5
  14. Jon Connington ... 4
  15. Melisandre ... 3
  16. Samwell Tarly ... 4
  17. Sansa Stark ... 4
  18. Theon Greyjoy ... 3
  19. Tyrion Lannister ... 7
  20. Victarion Greyjoy ... 5

 

  • Total Chapter Count ... 77
  • Prologue (who or where) ... Oxcross
  • Epilogue (who or where) ... The Wall

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Posted (edited)
On 4/10/2020 at 2:56 PM, The Map Guy said:
  1. Aeron Greyjoy ... 0
  2. Areo Hotah ... 1
  3. Arianne Martell ... 4
  4. Arya Stark ... 5
  5. Asha Greyjoy ... 3
  6. Barristan Selmy ... 2
  7. Bran Stark ... 6
  8. Brienne of Tarth ... 1
  9. Cersei Lannister ... 6
  10. Daenerys Targaryen ... 7
  11. Davos Seaworth ... 2
  12. Jaime Lannister ... 6
  13. Jon Snow ... 9 (inc Ghost)
  14. Jon Connington ... 3
  15. Melisandre ... 3
  16. Samwell Tarly ... 3
  17. Sansa Stark ... 5
  18. Theon Greyjoy ... 3
  19. Tyrion Lannister ... 10
  20. Victarion Greyjoy ... 1

 

  • Total Chapter Count ...  80
  • Prologue (who or where) ... Sybell Spicer Westerling, at Casterly Rock
  • Epilogue (who or where) ... Ser Alliser Thorne, at Castle Black

 

Maximum Score: 31

Like they lottery, it involves a lot of luck. Like the stock market, we can roughly predict a trend from previous books.

So when TWOW finally comes out, we can determine a winner with the highest score without reading the book yet.

May the best fan win!

 

Edited by Ibbison from Ibben
sp

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Aeron Greyjoy 2
Areo Hotah 1
Arianne Martell 4
Arya Stark 5
Asha Greyjoy 3
Barristan Selmy 4
Bran Stark 3
Brienne of Tarth 4
Cersei Lannister 6
Daenerys Targaryen 9
Davos Seaworth 4
Jaime Lannister 4
Jon Snow 4
Jon Connington 3
Melisandre 2
Samwell Tarly 4
Sansa Stark 4
Theon Greyjoy 3
Tyrion Lannister 10
Victarion Greyjoy 2
 

Total Chapter Count 83
Prologue (who or where) Somewhere in the Westerland
Epilogue (who or where) The wall

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On 4/11/2020 at 5:56 AM, The Map Guy said:

Hey guys, I just want to do something different.

For fun and bragging rights ... lets play the lottery with TWOW POV Chapter counts!

I list a POV character and you guess how many chapters they will have in TWOW.

If guessed correctly, you get one point for each POV.

For the Powerball, you get five points if guess the Total Chapter Count in TWOW.

For an additional bonus three points each, you have to guess correctly who or where the Prologue and Epilogue chapters belong to or take place.

  1. Aeron Greyjoy ... 2
  2. Areo Hotah ... 1
  3. Arianne Martell ... 3
  4. Arya Stark ... 5
  5. Asha Greyjoy ... 3
  6. Barristan Selmy ... 2
  7. Bran Stark ...4 
  8. Brienne of Tarth ... 3
  9. Cersei Lannister ... 5
  10. Daenerys Targaryen ... 6
  11. Davos Seaworth ... 3
  12. Jaime Lannister ... 3
  13. Jon Snow ... 5
  14. Jon Connington ... 1
  15. Melisandre ... 4
  16. Samwell Tarly ... 4
  17. Sansa Stark ... 5
  18. Theon Greyjoy ...3 
  19. Tyrion Lannister ... 5
  20. Victarion Greyjoy ... 2

 

  • Total Chapter Count ... 71
  • Prologue (who or where) ... Casterly Rock
  • Epilogue (who or where) ... The wall

 

 

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  1. Aeron Greyjoy: 3
  2. Areo Hotah: 3
  3. Arianne Martell: 4
  4. Arya Stark: 6
  5. Asha Greyjoy: 4
  6. Barristan Selmy: 3
  7. Bran Stark: 3
  8. Brienne of Tarth: 3
  9. Cersei Lannister: 6
  10. Daenerys Targaryen: 8
  11. Davos Seaworth: 5
  12. Jaime Lannister: 4
  13. Jon Snow: 0
  14. Jon Connington: 3
  15. Melisandre: 5
  16. Samwell Tarly: 6
  17. Sansa Stark: 7
  18. Theon Greyjoy: 5
  19. Tyrion Lannister: 5
  20. Victarion Greyjoy: 4

 

  • Total Chapter Count: 87
  • Prologue (who or where) Ilyn Payne
  • Epilogue (who or where) The Wall

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Posted (edited)

Ever heard of the wisdom of the crowds? Maybe our collective answers performs better than any single one... statistical savvy people, you have been served: https://imgur.com/B2mrCYa

Characters are presented in increasing order of average chapter count prediction, hence may not respect the survey's original order.

Apparently, the most uncertain characters would be Jon and Tyrion. That's interesting, those are far from secondary characters, I would not have guess they would have been so polarizing. But then again, that's measuring the error in "pure numbers", maybe it would be best to measure it relative to the mean. Oh well. Conversely, the character with whom people's predictions most agree is Theon, also very interesting.

Funny thing also, some people seem to have included both the prologue and epilogue in their total chapter count, whereas others did not.... that ought to be funny when, if ever, we start compiling results with the publication of TWoW....!

Edited by BreakinTheWall
Fixed the link + clarifications + clarifications

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  1. Aeron Greyjoy: 2
  2. Areo Hotah: 1
  3. Arianne Martell: 5
  4. Arya Stark: 6
  5. Asha Greyjoy: 2
  6. Barristan Selmy: 3
  7. Bran Stark: 5
  8. Brienne of Tarth: 3
  9. Cersei Lannister: 4
  10. Daenerys Targaryen: 9
  11. Davos Seaworth: 3
  12. Jaime Lannister: 4
  13. Jon Snow: 5
  14. Jon Connington: 2
  15. Melisandre: 4
  16. Samwell Tarly: 4
  17. Sansa Stark: 6
  18. Theon Greyjoy: 5
  19. Tyrion Lannister: 7
  20. Victarion Greyjoy: 3

 

  • Total Chapter Count: 83
  • Prologue (who or where) Forley Prester
  • Epilogue (who or where) The Wall 

 

 

 

 

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  1. Aeron Greyjoy 2
  2. Areo Hotah 3
  3. Arianne Martell 5
  4. Arya Stark 5
  5. Asha Greyjoy 1
  6. Barristan Selmy 3
  7. Bran Stark 5
  8. Brienne of Tarth 4
  9. Cersei Lannister 6
  10. Daenerys Targaryen 8
  11. Davos Seaworth 3
  12. Jaime Lannister 5
  13. Jon Snow 8
  14. Jon Connington 2
  15. Melisandre 3
  16. Samwell Tarly 4
  17. Sansa Stark 5
  18. Theon Greyjoy 4
  19. Tyrion Lannister 7
  20. Victarion Greyjoy 2

 

  • Total Chapter Count 85
  • Prologue (who or where) Edmure Tully-Westerlands
  • Epilogue (who or where) Somebody of the NW-The Wall

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Aeron Greyjoy 2
Areo Hotah 2
Arianne Martell 6
Arya Stark 6
Asha Greyjoy 3
Barristan Selmy 3
Bran Stark 3
Brienne of Tarth 2
Cersei Lannister 5
Daenerys Targaryen 8
Davos Seaworth 4
Jaime Lannister 5
Jon Snow 6
Jon Connington 3
Melisandre 2
Samwell Tarly 4
Sansa Stark 7
Theon Greyjoy 4
Tyrion Lannister 9
Victarion Greyjoy 3
 

Total Chapter Count 88
Prologue (who or where) Sybell Spicer/Borders between the Riverlands and the Westerlands
Epilogue (who or where) - There will be no epilogue

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On 4/10/2020 at 8:56 PM, The Map Guy said:
  1. Aeron Greyjoy 3
  2. Areo Hotah 2
  3. Arianne Martell 5
  4. Arya Stark 6
  5. Asha Greyjoy 4
  6. Barristan Selmy 3
  7. Bran Stark 8
  8. Brienne of Tarth 3
  9. Cersei Lannister 3
  10. Daenerys Targaryen 8
  11. Davos Seaworth 4
  12. Jaime Lannister 5
  13. Jon Snow 6
  14. Jon Connington 3
  15. Melisandre 3
  16. Samwell Tarly 4
  17. Sansa Stark 6
  18. Theon Greyjoy 4
  19. Tyrion Lannister 7
  20. Victarion Greyjoy 2

 

  • Total Chapter Count 90
  • Prologue (who or where) Casterly Rock
  • Epilogue (who or where) The Wall

 

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  1. Aeron Greyjoy 3
  2. Areo Hotah 3
  3. Arianne Martell 5
  4. Arya Stark 6
  5. Asha Greyjoy 2
  6. Barristan Selmy 4
  7. Bran Stark 5
  8. Brienne of Tarth 3
  9. Cersei Lannister 6
  10. Daenerys Targaryen 5
  11. Davos Seaworth 4
  12. Jaime Lannister 6
  13. Jon Snow 3
  14. Jon Connington 3
  15. Melisandre 3
  16. Samwell Tarly 4
  17. Sansa Stark 6
  18. Theon Greyjoy 5
  19. Tyrion Lannister 7
  20. Victarion Greyjoy 4

 

  • Total Chapter Count ... 86
  • Prologue (who or where) ... Dothraki sea
  • Epilogue (who or where) ... Eastwatch by the sea

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On 5/3/2020 at 3:01 AM, BreakinTheWall said:

Ever heard of the wisdom of the crowds? Maybe our collective answers performs better than any single one... statistical savvy people, you have been served: https://imgur.com/B2mrCYa

Oh I saw this before and I wasn't sure what this was at first. Did you take survey of 7 random people? Or is that 7 people from this topic? If it is from this topic, thanks!

On 5/3/2020 at 3:01 AM, BreakinTheWall said:

Funny thing also, some people seem to have included both the prologue and epilogue in their total chapter count, whereas others did not.... that ought to be funny when, if ever, we start compiling results with the publication of TWoW....!

Thanks, let me clarify & edit that in the OP.

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Posted (edited)

@The Map Guy Hey! Yes those were the 7 people who at the time provided answers to your survey, here on the forum.

As 5 more answers came in since the chart was last generated, I took the liberty of updating it. Here's a link to it: https://imgur.com/oF6Om6H.

Samwell is now the POV character people most agree upon.

Jon, by far, retains its title as the most divisive character, which can partly be explained by the fact that some people must think he's dead, while others don't; some think he'll be brought back (or come back on his own), while others don't; some think he'll come back early, while others don't.

To a lesser extent, second most divisive character is Tyrion (or Bran), although I am less inclined to provide ultra specific answers in this case... on one hand, he's GRRM favorite character, but he's in a kind of a weird spot.... I don't know....

By chapter count, it would appear the most important character will be Dany (woot, woot!), and, unsurprisingly, the least important will be Hotah.... (disappointed trumpet sound)

With an average total chapter count of 83.25 spread amongst 20 POV characters, this indeed promises to be a large (and very packed), interesting book!

Cheers

Edited by BreakinTheWall
Fixed some typos.

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Posted (edited)
On 7/10/2020 at 2:47 AM, BreakinTheWall said:

As 5 more answers came in since the chart was last generated, I took the liberty of updating it. Here's a link to it: https://imgur.com/oF6Om6H.

Thanks Graph Guy!

On 7/10/2020 at 2:47 AM, BreakinTheWall said:

By chapter count, it would appear the most important character will be Dany (woot, woot!)

Gotta tie loose ends in Essos before arriving in Westeros in ADOS!

On 7/10/2020 at 2:47 AM, BreakinTheWall said:

usurprisingly, the least important will be Hotah

Sunspear should be uneventful in the first half of TWOW. It should pick up after Hotah's duel with Balon Swann after another botched Martell plan.

Edited by The Map Guy

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Posted (edited)

This topic does indirectly show the problem GRRM is facing. ADWD had 71 chapters divided between 16 POV characters (not counting the prologue/epilogue) and that hit the absolute ceiling GRRM and his publishers imposed on themselves. TWoW will probably have 20 POV characters and even if many of them only have 1 or 2 chapters, that's going to eat up a lot of space fast, especially if we assume that the likes of Daenerys and Tyrion (and maybe Arya) will have quite a lot of chapters as major characters (Jon might only have 1, or even 0 if he doesn't "return" until the end of the novel).

What could help is if GRRM returns to his shorter chapter lengths from back in the day. ADWD did show a drop in chapter length from AFFC so that was headed in the right direction, but he was still a way off from his AGoT average.

  1. A Game of Thrones: 4082 (298k in 73 chapters)
  2. A Clash of Kings: 4657 (326k in 70 chapters)
  3. A Storm of Swords: 5171 (424k in 82 chapters)
  4. A Feast for Crows: 6522 (300k in 46 chapters)
  5. A Dance with Dragons: 5781 (422k in 73 chapters)
Edited by Werthead

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@Werthead: Are you suggesting in addition to predicting chapter counts (total and POV-wise), people also try and guess the average chapter page count (or word count)? I suppose that is entirely equivalent to predicting total page count, although average chapter page count might be easier to "picture". I think that's an excellent idea, as it might confront people with the practical consequences of their own guesses. E.g. if you say a total of 100 chapters each averaging 100 pages, that would make a book that's 10,000 pages long. Obviously this is wrong. Well, that's not my poll, but maybe, just maybe, @The Map Guy would like to update the OP so as to reflect this new dimension?

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Posted (edited)
On 7/19/2020 at 2:40 PM, Werthead said:

This topic does indirectly show the problem GRRM is facing. ADWD had 71 chapters divided between 16 POV characters (not counting the prologue/epilogue) and that hit the absolute ceiling GRRM and his publishers imposed on themselves. TWoW will probably have 20 POV characters and even if many of them only have 1 or 2 chapters, that's going to eat up a lot of space fast, especially if we assume that the likes of Daenerys and Tyrion (and maybe Arya) will have quite a lot of chapters as major characters (Jon might only have 1, or even 0 if he doesn't "return" until the end of the novel).

What could help is if GRRM returns to his shorter chapter lengths from back in the day. ADWD did show a drop in chapter length from AFFC so that was headed in the right direction, but he was still a way off from his AGoT average.

  1. A Game of Thrones: 4082 (298k in 73 chapters)
  2. A Clash of Kings: 4657 (326k in 70 chapters)
  3. A Storm of Swords: 5171 (424k in 82 chapters)
  4. A Feast for Crows: 6522 (300k in 46 chapters)
  5. A Dance with Dragons: 5781 (422k in 73 chapters)

While I agree that the shorter chapters of pre-AFfC would help, one should also consider proper chapter beginnings and ends for so many additional chapters. Not every chapter has to end with a bang but all of them should have a reasonably climactic end point with respect to the chapter content. Deciding where a chapter should start and how it should end within the space of an average chapter length is no easy task.

 

For example consider The King's Prize and The Sacrifice. It is clear that these chapters originally belonged to a single chapter but GRRM divided them into two, probably because space reasons. You can tell it from how abruptly GRRM ends The King's Prize (and also from the fact that GRRM used the exact same sentence in both chapters and forgot to delete one). The logical endpoint for this pair of chapters is obviously the arrival of Theon and the others.

 

If GRRM writes too many shorter chapters, we might expect a lot of them having substandard quality endpoints. There are far too many distinct storylines. It is a mathematical necessity that not all of them will be streamlined in terms of chapter length and overall chapter number.

Edited by Mithras

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