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Alyn Oakenfist

How much do fAegon and fArya matter?

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So one off my goals for this forum was to make a big dissertation on why the core reason for the failure of the abomination was removing fAegon and fArya, and how much these two characters really matter for the books, as I feel that even on this forum people don't value them enough. Eventually it kinda spiraled out of controlled and the result was a youtube video. Hope you enjoy it, and I'm curious on what do you think about fAegon and fArya. Are they unimportant characters or crucial points of the novels?

PS you could just ignore the title it's more about the books then the abomination.

 

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I did not watch your video.  I want to be clear with you about that.  

It is my opinion that Aegon Griffin (Aegon Blackfyre) is important to the real plot of the story.  Jeyne played her role and she is done.  Fake Arya is the Quentyn in the North.  She had a small role that had important consequences to the main characters.  Fake Arya was the plot bait that pushed Jon Snow over the edge and caused him to betray the Night's Watch.  The consequences will be big.  The chaos it caused will make the Wall vulnerable, basically almost undefended.  Quentyn acted selfishly and tried to steal the dragons.  I am glad he failed and at the same time relieved that the dragons are not sitting ducks for the Harpy to murder.  

Aegon has a big role to play in the politics of the Seven Kingdoms.  He's a pawn in the larger game being played by the Magister and Varys.  Daenerys will reveal that lie and how Aegon reacts will determine his fate.  But we are a long way from that.  Aegon will have a lot of enemies to deal with.  The Lannisters, Tyrells, and those who still support the Baratheons will have to be resolved.  He will definitely want to punish Jaime and the Baratheons.  Aegon may accept a role subordinate to Daenerys.  In which case he can become one of her wingmen that we've talked about on this forum.  

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1 minute ago, Here's Looking At You, Kid said:

She had a small role that had important consequences to the main characters.

I do agree with this 100%. However her importance as a plot point it huge:

- First off she's probably responsible for Stannis having a foothold in the North and probably eventually winning. Without ,,Ned's little girl" it's hard to say it Stannis would have had the same momentum.

- She's also responsible for the stuff that's about to go down on the Wall. Without her and Jon's attachment towards his sister none of all the stuff that's about to go down would have happened.

- She's also probably responsible for Theon snapping out of the whole Reek phase.

6 minutes ago, Here's Looking At You, Kid said:

Aegon has a big role to play in the politics of the Seven Kingdoms.  He's a pawn in the larger game being played by the Magister and Varys. 

Yeah, but as we've seen he's turning into less and less of a pawn now he's in the open. Him marrying Arianne will probably be the first moment when he goes strongly against Jon Conn and Varys.

7 minutes ago, Here's Looking At You, Kid said:

Daenerys will reveal that lie and how Aegon reacts will determine his fate.

I don't think Dany can reveal anything. His identity is forever going to be a bit shrouded in mystery, but I think in the end we will never know. Regardless Dany will have no proof.

8 minutes ago, Here's Looking At You, Kid said:

Aegon will have a lot of enemies to deal with.  The Lannisters, Tyrells, and those who still support the Baratheons will have to be resolved.

The Tyrells aren't going to be a problem after Wetserosi Agincourrt, and Stannis and his supporters are in the North and are going to be more then busy against the WW. I think fAegon will manage to fully stabilize the realm except the Ironborn and Casterly Rock until Dany comes and ironically becomes a kind of Robert Baratheon, an usurper. Chances of a Dance are very big in my opinion.

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Of course Aegon is going to be important.

Although most likely not a great or successful king. Varys wants him to be great and popular, but he doesn't have dragons and his Hand is going to bring a plague to Westeros that might quickly spin out of control.

There might be a fortnight of cheering in KL after Aegon takes the throne - sort of like there was this whole False Dawn thing after the end of the Dance - but after that the lad is likely going to turn into a failure or a even a tyrant rather quickly. Euron is not going to be kept in check by this youth. And neither will Cersei or Littlefinger or whatever faction might develop in the meantime.

Aegon is a completely bland character so far. We have gotten no insight into him and his thoughts, but Tyrion planted the seed of mistrust in him, so it wouldn't surprise me at all if were slowly but surely going down the road his dear grandfather took, especially as soon as he has to deal with major obstacles.

There is certainly going to be some kind of Second Dance - George has said as much - but we have no idea whether Dany or Aegon is going to be see as the evil guy there. Nor how much Westerosi support Dany will be able to muster among Aegon's enemies. Also keep in mind that Dany a powerful dragon queen will be able to show leniency and take the 'veiled threat' approach Jaehaerys I liked so much - she can point to her dragons, doesn't have to use them to show she means business. Aegon, on the other hand, has to prove he means business from the start. And whenever he is challenged he will have to retaliate to continue to prove and prove and prove that he is a Targaryen and Rhaegar's son - because none of his enemies are going to believe that. Just as his followers will always have the luxury to change their minds and decide he is an impostor after all.

George has said TWoW is going to be the darkest book so far, meaning chances of even a temporary respite down in the south are very low.

And of course there are already means and people in place to prove that Aegon is a fake. Mainly by means of the Tattered Prince who might know the entire story of Varys and Illyrio, including who they are and who their parents and grandparents were. He might also know stuff about the Serra woman and the child Illyrio had by her. All that should be more than enough to shatter the belief of many Westerosi that this guy is who they claim he is. They believed Aegon Targaryen was dead for about seventeen years. They should be easily convinced that he never returned from the dead.

One also shouldn't underestimate the dragon factor. Daemon II Blackfyre and Bloodraven both believed that if a Blackfyre hatched a dragon egg this would be seen as a divine sign that the guy with the dragon was the rightful ruler (the Greens realized something similar at the end of the Dance, when Rhaena hatched a dragon egg but Aegon II no longer had any dragons of his own). If Aegon were to never acquire a dragon of his own he should be quickly finished/face great problems once he has to face Daenerys and her dragons. And it should be very easy to connect 'Aegon the Dragonless' with 'Aegon the Impostor', claiming that Aegon doesn't have dragons because he isn't a Targaryen.

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The relevance of fake Arya is that Jon broke vows/duty for the love of his sister, and she was fake, it was all for nothing. So that will weigh on his mind the next time he has to make that same decision, love or vows/duty.

The ultimate relevance of Aegon being fake is to Dany. She will fight a war that tears Westeros apart, kills thousands, kills dragons and severely weakens the realm before the coming of the Others. They'll say the reason she fought the war is that she has a mad lust for power, she will argue it was because Aegon was a fake, that lineage and birthright matters. She will then meet Jon and understand his parentage and that he was trueborn, and be confronted with an awkward decision. She either submits to Jon as his claim is true and better than hers, or she does not, and proves herself mad for power and what they said about her correct.

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Of course they are important. Jeyne is pretty much the most important factor in entire north :

1. She strengthens position as warden of the North , if he does not have the girl northmens would  turn against him more quickly.

2. she is effecting Stannis campaign in north, Northmens want girl free if Stannis wants their further support and freeing her would give him even more followers and man to army.

3. She is even effecting events on Wall where Jon snow was about to do something that wasn´t done in thousand year , meddling in affairs of seven kingdoms which is against their rules.

 

Its unclear how Aegon  story is going to develop and he barely started his campaign but he is surely important player even if he is just pawn of Varys and Ilirio.

 

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I think FArya is going to be important for the story going forward.   Aegon I'm not quite sure about, but don't think he will be that important in the end.

Aegon I tend to think of mainly as a bit of a red herring and a lie for Daenerys to slay.  I expect he will take Storms End if he hasn't already but have doubts about whether he will take KL.  In any event, I expect JonCon will spread Greyscale in the Stormlands

Jeyne Poole (FArya) has already played an important role by getting Theon out of his Reek phase and leading Jon to make decisions that have come back to bite him.  But I feel she will be important going forward as well, affecting Arya and Sansa's stories, and possibly the overall Northern story as well.

Jeyne is very likely on her way to Braavos.  And the real Arya isin Braavos as well.  She will likely find out her doppelganger is in town and pay a visit to find out what is going on.  Jeyne can tell her about Jon and that there are Northerners willing to fight, kill, and die for her.  I expect Arya to return to Westeros and take up the mantle of Arya of House Stark. 

I am also curious about the whip marks on her back.  George didn't put them there for kicks and giggles.  They have a purpose, and all clues lead to Littlefinger, which means Sansa.  I expect Sansa to be displeased at the mistreatment of her friend, which will likely lead to a worsening of her relationship with Littlefinger. 

And just to make things more interesting, I think Jeyne could be pregnant with Ramsay's son, which would certainly affect Houses Hornwood and Bolton, and maybe the overall North as well.  

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Nice post. I mostly agree & where I disagree slightly is more on where the story will go rather than the importance of fAegon & fArya. For instance, I think Cersei may sit the throne for a bit, albeit not very effectively. 

Anyway, again, nice post. 

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10 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

For instance, I think Cersei may sit the throne for a bit, albeit not very effectively. 

I mean maybe. I mean between Westerosi Agincourt and fAegon properly taking power I think KL is going to go absolutely insane like in the Dance, with probably several kings coexisting until fAegon comes to sort the mess out. So yeah after Tommen and Myrcella inevitably die, probably via angry crowd, Cersei is going to be Queen but only for a brief while.

13 hours ago, Nevets said:

And just to make things more interesting, I think Jeyne could be pregnant with Ramsay's son, which would certainly affect Houses Hornwood and Bolton, and maybe the overall North as well.

I mean given Jeyne's love of Ramsay and the dangers of bringing another Bolton into the world, my guess for such a scenario would be tansy tea.

13 hours ago, Nevets said:

Aegon I tend to think of mainly as a bit of a red herring and a lie for Daenerys to slay.  I expect he will take Storms End if he hasn't already but have doubts about whether he will take KL.  In any event, I expect JonCon will spread Greyscale in the Stormlands

I think Dany will claim him to be fake but she will have dead nothing as proof of it, and will be seen as an usurper and kinslayer when she kills him. Also he has already taken Storm's End and is preparing to fight Mace at Agincourt, after which Tarly will probably defect and Arianne will bring Dorne in so he should have no problem taking KL, and bringing peace at last. That is until Dany comes knocking.

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On 5/9/2020 at 9:25 AM, Alyn Oakenfist said:

So one off my goals for this forum was to make a big dissertation on why the core reason for the failure of the abomination was removing fAegon and fArya, and how much these two characters really matter for the books, as I feel that even on this forum people don't value them enough. Eventually it kinda spiraled out of controlled and the result was a youtube video. Hope you enjoy it, and I'm curious on what do you think about fAegon and fArya. Are they unimportant characters or crucial points of the novels?

I'd appreciate if you could write up the text you read in your video so people could quote from it and search for it via text strings. A little while back I watched An Editor Rewrites The Battle of Winterfell and thought I would try to transcribe it, but it seemed like a lot of work for someone who didn't actually write it, whereas my impression is that many youtubers first write what they're about to say and then read off their script.

Young Griff has only been in a small portion of the story so far. We don't know how important he will be. You say a lot about what you expect to happen, but it's all speculative. The show has condensed things and removed characters before, and I think they did so more successfully early on. The problem, in my view, is that D&D weren't able to delegate sufficiently to avoid being overwhelmed and burned out by the scale the show grew to. By the end I think they just wanted it to be over.

Regarding Dorne: in the books Doran was plotting to ally with Viserys and then Dany, while Arianne tried to crown Myrcella. They didn't find out about Griff until later on. Since the showrunners wanted to have them ally with Dany, they could have kept most of that. Varys was also allied in Illyrio in supporting Viserys & Dany as far back as the first book. GRRM probably hadn't even come up with Young Griff at that point. It's not that radical a shift for him to just continue to back the one Targaryen in the show rather than also be involved in another Targaryen available to invade while Dany is busy.

I don't think it made sense for Jon Snow to become King in the North on the show. He's a bastard not in line to inherit anything, he confirmed that he couldn't have any titles when he joined the Night's Watch, and the mutiny against him showed how unpopular he was even among his brother Watchmen. Sansa was right there to inherit, and there was no explanation for why she didn't. He also showed terrible judgement which nearly lost the battle against the Boltons.

My big problem with Sansa marrying Ramsay is that she had absolutely no reason to do it and every reason to avoid it. The showrunners understandably wanted to consolidate storylines, but handwaved away how they got from point A to point B. With her in Bolton hands, they could do the same plot with Jon hearing his (half) sister is there and trying to rescue her, but they didn't do that. As it is, they moved the letter to season 6 with Sansa already at the Wall and Rickon there instead.

On 5/9/2020 at 5:35 PM, Lord Varys said:

There is certainly going to be some kind of Second Dance - George has said as much

I think the problem is that there aren't enough dragons for anything really comparable. The irony is that we already got a book titled "A Dance With Dragons".

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Mainly by means of the Tattered Prince who might know the entire story of Varys and Illyrio

We've gotten no indication he knows any more than anyone else. Is this merely because he's originally from Pentos? Young Griff was kept extra secret, and Tatters left Pentos in 262 AC, while Rhaegar's son was born in 281 at the earliest.

Quote

And it should be very easy to connect 'Aegon the Dragonless' with 'Aegon the Impostor', claiming that Aegon doesn't have dragons because he isn't a Targaryen.

Targaryen kings have been without dragons for more than a century. Nobody thinks those kings weren't Targaryens, because the absence of a dragon hasn't been disproof of anything.

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3 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

I think the problem is that there aren't enough dragons for anything really comparable. The irony is that we already got a book titled "A Dance With Dragons".

We are talking about the Second Dance George himself talked about. Nobody said anything about it involving as many dragons and dragonriders as the first.

3 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

We've gotten no indication he knows any more than anyone else. Is this merely because he's originally from Pentos? Young Griff was kept extra secret, and Tatters left Pentos in 262 AC, while Rhaegar's son was born in 281 at the earliest.

It is because he is Pentoshi by birth, wants to rule Pentos, and wants to talk to Daenerys about something. Pentos' defenses are a joke. There are easier ways for him to get Pentos than to travel to Slaver's Bay and try to convince a queen allied to Illyrio Mopatis to help him with his revenge ... unless he thinks he has a way to convince Daenerys to see things his way/help him with the thing he wants. And knowledge about Varys, Illyrio, and their plans may be a big part of that. A of his high birth would have connections to Pentos even long after he was gone.

3 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Targaryen kings have been without dragons for more than a century. Nobody thinks those kings weren't Targaryens, because the absence of a dragon hasn't been disproof of anything.

But Aegon is a guy claiming to be a Targaryen the world thinks is dead. He will have to prove who he is not just once, but again and again and again. As soon as he starts to make mistakes people will mutter and sneer behind his back that he might be just a pisswater prince, a whore's son, an impostor, etc. And that is going to become much, much worse if he were to ever face a real Targaryen with real dragons in battle. Dragons are power, not silver-gold hair or purple eyes.

As I said, the author himself sends the message that Aerys I and Bloodraven (and Maekar and his sons, etc.) might melt away like summer snows if a Blackfyre pretender ever hatched a dragon egg. If Dany shows up with three dragons - and the riders to use them in war - this will have a huge impact.

Unlike some rather outlandish reader ideas who don't have anything better to do - nobody in Martinworld doubts that Daenerys Targaryen is who she is (or that her dragons are real). Aegon will be in a much worse position.

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I expect Aegon and Arianne will marry, and they would be a hugely popular couple - for a time.  And, likely, they'll always be popular at Kings Landing, and in Dorne.

The danger for them, IMHO, is Jon Connington and the Sand Snakes.  These people are out for blood.  If they murder Tommen, and perhaps Margaery, and start going after everyone associated with Tyrells, Lannisters, and Baratheons, they'll become very unpopular in much of the country.

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20 hours ago, Springwatch said:

fAegon and fArya are just shadow characters. A might-have-been for Jon and Arya. Or even Sansa.

Could you explain more on this? I get the Jon & Arya comparison, by why Sansa? 

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20 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It is because he is Pentoshi by birth, wants to rule Pentos, and wants to talk to Daenerys about something. Pentos' defenses are a joke. There are easier ways for him to get Pentos than to travel to Slaver's Bay and try to convince a queen allied to Illyrio Mopatis to help him with his revenge

He went to Meereen because he was hired by the Yunkish, and plays both sides because he's an opportunist who (understandably) lacks confidence in the Yunkish. The Windblown are hardly the top mercenary company either, so I don't think it would be that easy for him to rule Pentos without help.

Quote

A of his high birth would have connections to Pentos even long after he was gone.

Do the aristocracy of Pentos know about Young Griff? There's no evidence that's the case, while we know the conspirators have endeavored to keep him a secret.

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, FictionIsntReal said:

He went to Meereen because he was hired by the Yunkish, and plays both sides because he's an opportunist who (understandably) lacks confidence in the Yunkish. The Windblown are hardly the top mercenary company either, so I don't think it would be that easy for him to rule Pentos without help.

We don't know why he went to Meereen. But if he lacked confidence in the Yunkish it is very odd that he went - after all, they are the guys paying the company, are they not? In fact, there is no reason to believe he ever thought they could lose after they made short work out of Astapor and were joined by two other companies and a third when the Second Sons turned their cloaks - not to mention the fact that they were supported by New Ghis, the Qartheen, and the other cities. In addition, they knew there was a decent chance that a Dothraki khalasar and the Volantenes would join them in the future. Dany had essentially nothing to offer to counter that but her Unsullied, a couple of freedmen, and a single sellsword company. She couldn't count on the Meereenese to stand with her in war. And her dragons were long neutralized as potential weapons of war by the time the Yunkish approached Meereen.

What's indicated is that he didn't went there to defeat Daenerys but to make a deal with her. And that makes no sense if he wants Pentos. Because he has no reason to believe Daenerys Targaryen is going to help him with that. If he wants her help - which we have reason to believe he does - he has to believe he can somehow convince her to see things his way. And the Aegon plan is the obvious answer to that riddle.

He also doesn't want to play both sides against each other - he sent one of his top operatives to Meereen to search a personal audience with Daenerys Targaryen herself. If he had wanted to switch sides or do something of that sort he could have done it the Ben Plumm way. And he could not expect to get any coin in advance for a betrayal he might never go through with.

Quote

Do the aristocracy of Pentos know about Young Griff? There's no evidence that's the case, while we know the conspirators have endeavored to keep him a secret.

How should I know? The point is that some people there could know stuff. Illyrio Mopatis is a public figure, his marriage to a Lysene whore (if that happened) would be public knowledge, as would that woman's pregnacy and possibly even the birth of a child. Also, Illyrio's own past would be something his colleagues and rivals would have uncovered, too.

Varys and Illyrio went to considerable lengths to prevent Robert and his court to learn about the Aegon plan. But that doesn't mean the Pentoshi have no idea who Illyrio and Varys are, from whom they are descended, with whom they are working, and what they plan.

And a guy from one of the foremost families in Pentos has the means and connections to be privy to stuff like that even if he doesn't live in Pentos anymore.

You don't have to believe that this is the case. But this is clearly possible and it is rather likely that the whole point of the Windblown and the Tattered Prince is to provide Dany and her people with crucial information about Illyrio.

They don't have to get all pieces from them - Barristan Selmy is an old guy, too, the man who slew Maelys Blackfyre. He, too, might know something about missing Blackfyres and stuff like that - if Maelys had sisters, daughters, cousins, etc. the men participating in the War of the Ninepenny Kings would know stuff about that. If Tatters revealed that Varys' or Illyrio's mother was named X Blackfyre then Selmy might very well recognize the name, connecting dots none of them could connect before.

And then they have their case against Aegon. They don't have to have the lad's nonexistent birth certificate. Especially in addition to Tyrion's knowledge about the gang and the fact that Illyrio is apparently cozy enough with the Golden Company to convince them to break contracts and invade Westeros on behalf of their Aegon. Basically all they need is the Blackfyre stuff and a report/claim that Illyrio's second wife gave birth to a son with Valyrian features at a time that would allow this child to be the Aegon Tyrion met.

Edited by Lord Varys

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Aegon could easily be real. Aegon could easily be Rhaegar's only living son.  

 

Therefore he could easily be the most impactful character in the rest of the Iron Throne storyline. Unless Dany finally comes to Westeros.

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Posted (edited)

About the Tattered Prince, he himself could have Valyrian ancestry. 

His hair color, silver-grey, is used twice to describe it by Quentyn, and once more in the whole text to describe another man with Valyrian blood, and that's Aerys, when Dany sees him in that vision in the HotU (the tail of Dany's horse is also described as silver-grey).

Tatters' hair seems almost golden in the candlelight. At the very least, his hair color in his youth might have been the same as Dany's, silver-gold. I think there's a slim chance he could be a distant kinsman.

The Tattered Prince also makes an off-handed comment about Westerosi weddings to Quentyn, and how he especially enjoys the bedding. He might have been to Westeros. He could possibly connect back to House Targaryen. He's from a princely Pentoshi House and Pentos has played various roles at various times in the history of the Targaryens. Nobody (using the term loosely) knows his real name, although Groleo hailing from Pentos and being an old man, could have figured out his real identity, but he's dead, so he's no help.

About (f)Arya and Aegon, and I'm gonna call him Aegon because I think he's the real deal, their roles are important in the story.

Half the stuff that happened at the Wall with Melisandre, Mance and Jon wouldn't have happened if not for the (f)Arya plot. This plot produced the Pink Letter and led directly to Jon's stabbing. The clansmen are marching in Stannis's army to rescue the Ned's little girl and take Winterfell back. If the Hooded Man is Harwin or Hal Mollen, then (f)Arya serves her purpose there as well with LSH. 

With Aegon, same thing. His plot takes Arianne out of Dorne. Him taking Storm's End cripples Stannis and his kingly claim in the south. His surfacing changes the dynamics. The lords have another option and someone else they can flock to, who is neither Lannister or Baratheon. And with the belief that was held by Rhaegar that Aegon is the PtwP, his plot might tie him directly to what's happening in the north and Jon Snow. 

For what it's worth, I don't think he and Dany will be involved in this Dance 2.0.

Edited by Alexis-something-Rose

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On 5/12/2020 at 1:48 PM, a black swan said:

Could you explain more on this? I get the Jon & Arya comparison, by why Sansa? 

It's nothing very concrete, but Jeyne is sort of placed at a point where Arya's and Sansa's identities meet - Ned's precious little girl.

Jeyne starts out totally as Sansa's shadow, liking what Sansa likes, saying what Sansa might say (horseface). At the slaughter at the Tower of the Hand, the Hound comes searching for Ned's daughters (presumably), but he finds Jeyne. And then LF makes her disappear.

And of course after that, Jeyne has to play Arya, while Sansa is playing Alayne. It's all very confusing. :blink:

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