US Politics: Birthing Again

[maarsen]

16 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Does anyone else have family members buying into the QAnon bullshit?  My mother is sharing this crap on facebook.  I call her out whenever I see it and have been trying to talk her out of the tree without success.  

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/14/media/qanon-news-coverage/index.html?fbclid=IwAR1LdCyPlQy_zEkk5zZcu6O32GOCa_TiL3Ol4Cz80KSSRI5WAeAvlFKZ278

Scot the cream may always float to the top but so does the scum.

[DMC]

Just saw CPR has moved the SC Senate race from likely to lean Republican.  Here's the link to a writeup on the shift, it's free if anyone wants to look.  They also updated their House ratings on Friday and Wasserman says Dems now favored to expand majority.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

6 minutes ago, DMC said:

Just saw CPR has moved the SC Senate race from likely to lean Republican.  Here's the link to a writeup on the shift, it's free if anyone wants to look.  They also updated their House ratings on Friday and Wasserman says Dems now favored to expand majority.

I think I drove a woman who was a staffer for Jamie Harrison from the Airport to an event in Greenville yesterday.  I made a point to tell her that I appreciate Harrison's positive tone and that I hope he wins the race.

[sologdin]

the cream may always float to the top but so does the scum.

more hofstadterian paranoid style, but also lowenthal's description of rightwing populism from mid-century.  both texts are heartily recommended.

[Guy Kilmore]

1 hour ago, DMC said:

Yeah, even if she waited until 2032 and won two terms, she'd still be leaving the presidency at 51 years old.  Even that seems like a lot of wasted potential value - although it'd be cool if she pulled a (Quincy) Adams and went back to the House post-presidency.  But, while I think she should wait 2 or 3 cycles because she is still so young - you have to weigh that against waiting too long and seizing the opportunity when you can.  If you wanna run for president, it's incumbent to strike while the iron is hot.  And every politician wants to be president over being a lion in the Senate - even Ted Kennedy.

No, that is true too, gotta go when you have your shot.  But, yeah, at 51 years old and to be...done with politics, just, yeah, wasted potential value is a good word.  I even see that a little bit with Obama now.

[Fez]

Just now, Guy Kilmore said:

No, that is true too, gotta go when you have your shot.  But, yeah, at 51 years old and to be...done with politics, just, yeah, wasted potential value is a good word.  I even see that a little bit with Obama now.

I said years ago that I could see Obama eventually becoming Illinois Governor. I wouldn't expected it, but I wouldn't be surprised either. I could also see a future President AOC eventually becoming New York Governor. 

I don't see any President anymore going back to Congress; the idea having a job where people tell you what to do seems like it would be too jarring for any President. But as a governor, you're still an executive, you still get the last word; just for a smaller area. I think it only works though for a President from a state where they could win the election and every re-election without really campaigning; the idea of losing a lower level election like that would be too humiliating for a former President.

I think that or SCOTUS are the only options for a former President that wants to stay actively involved in public life; other than just being an elder statesman (this doesn't count Trump, who, assuming he does leave office, I imagine will launch some sort of media network).

[DMC]

4 minutes ago, Guy Kilmore said:

I even see that a little bit with Obama now.

Certainly see that with Obama now, but he also definitely chose the right moment (to win, anyway, not strategically with the Republicans being able to generate a huge backlash simply by obstruction during the GFC - which seems clear they're setting up for Biden this time as well).

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Fez said:

I don't see any President anymore going back to Congress; the idea having a job where people tell you what to do seems like it would be too jarring for any President.

I don't know about this, especially considering AOC is the main symbol of a movement (well, Bernie too, but if we're talking 2041..)  She could go back to the House as the standard-bearer of that movement and have huge influence.  No one would be "telling her what to do" any more than the Senate leadership ever tried to tell Ted Kennedy what to do.

[Guy Kilmore]

3 minutes ago, Fez said:

I said years ago that I could see Obama eventually becoming Illinois Governor. I wouldn't expected it, but I wouldn't be surprised either. I could also see a future President AOC eventually becoming New York Governor. 

I don't see any President anymore going back to Congress; the idea having a job where people tell you what to do seems like it would be too jarring for any President. But as a governor, you're still an executive, you still get the last word; just for a smaller area. I think it only works though for a President from a state where they could win the election and every re-election without really campaigning; the idea of losing a lower level election like that would be too humiliating for a former President.

I think that or SCOTUS are the only options for a former President that wants to stay actively involved in public life; other than just being an elder statesman (this doesn't count Trump, who, assuming he does leave office, I imagine will launch some sort of media network).

I just don't see how a President could run again, I think the....mental place you have to be to push through all the bullshit to be President that nothing would be worth the risk of potentially losing or even having to ASK to be elected to a position of lesser value.  I think they are all protective of their legacy.  I could see an appointed position, such as SCOTUS though.

3 minutes ago, DMC said:

Certainly see that with Obama now, but he also definitely chose the right moment (to win, anyway, not strategically with the Republicans being able to generate a huge backlash simply by obstruction during the GFC - which seems clear they're setting up for Biden this time as well).

I think Obama took the shot when he needed to, but, it is also serving as an object lesson, in my mind, that if you can, waiting to take it has a power to, letting you influence the political landscape in a more direct way.

[OnionAhaiReborn]

This talk of AOC losing out on potential influence by winning the Presidency too early reminds me of old fashioned baseball fans calling home runs rally killers. 

[DMC]

4 minutes ago, OnionAhaiReborn said:

This talk of AOC losing out on potential influence by winning the Presidency too early reminds me of old fashioned baseball fans calling home runs rally killers. 

Not really.  A home run yields the team maximum potential value for that plate appearance.  This would be more like overusing a star pitcher early in their career which then leads injuries that significantly shorten his career and prime years.

[Guy Kilmore]

51 minutes ago, OnionAhaiReborn said:

This talk of AOC losing out on potential influence by winning the Presidency too early reminds me of old fashioned baseball fans calling home runs rally killers. 

No, that doesn't fit to what I am saying.  How much influence does Obama or Clinton have right now in crafting policy, in structuring executive powers and setting the tone/focus of a debate?  It doesn't feel like that have a ton of direct pressure.  And I want to maximize that pressure.  If you hit a home run and then the batter had to retire for the rest of the game, then, yep, I could see the comparison, but, in the analogy your batter gets to keep playing.

[Centrist Simon Steele]

3 minutes ago, Guy Kilmore said:

No, that doesn't fit to what I am saying.  How much influence does Obama or Clinton have right now in crafting policy, in structuring executive powers and setting the tone/focus of a debate?  It doesn't feel like that have a ton of direct pressure.  And I want to maximize that pressure.  If you hit a home run and then the batter had to retire for the rest of the game, then, yep, I could see the comparison, but, in the analogy your better gets to keep playing.

But also, what's to stop a former President to run for Senate or the House (or some other position) again? I know it's happened before, I just can't remember which President. 

[Guy Kilmore]

5 minutes ago, Simon Steele said:

But also, what's to stop a former President to run for Senate or the House (or some other position) again? I know it's happened before, I just can't remember which President. 

Fez made that statement earlier.  Here was what I said:

I just don't see how a President could run again, I think the....mental place you have to be to push through all the bullshit to be President that nothing would be worth the risk of potentially losing or even having to ASK to be elected to a position of lesser value.  I think they are all protective of their legacy.  I could see an appointed position, such as SCOTUS though.

I would also see that step back to be of a....particular challenge?

ETA:  Counterpoint, John Quincy Adams is who you are thinking of (DMC stated that earlier.)

[DMC]

6 minutes ago, Simon Steele said:

But also, what's to stop a former President to run for Senate or the House (or some other position) again? I know it's happened before, I just can't remember which President. 

As I mentioned earlier, John Quincy Adams is the only one to do it in the House.  Andrew Johnson is the only one to do it in the Senate.  Taft is the only one to be appointed a SC justice.

[Zorral]

2 hours ago, Fury Resurrected said:

I am such a huge fan of Castro and I was shocked he didn’t do better in the primary once more people were exposed to him because he really has the It factor in a way that few politicians do. He’s a phenomenal speaker, he has a very inspiring personal story, he has well defined and original policy ideas, and his record isn’t of the type where he can get nailed too hard on his past while still being experienced enough for the presidency. I’m sure we will see him run again but I get real “the one who got away” feelings about Castro

That surprised me as well -- particularly with his experience, background and he's just smart and decent and likeable.

I love what JQ did as a congressman from MA in the House.  Especially loved how he drove Jackson (more than he already was) insane.  What I also liked was the very idea that his going back to politics as a congressman showed a mindset that politics wasn't supposed to be a hierarchy of wins and earns and rewards -- do all the right things from a lowly assemblyman or sheriff or state attorney, suck up to and facilitate all the right people, you get to be a state senator or governor, then a cabinet or agency director, and then VP and then POTUS.  It was what one is entitled to -- POTUS the best of the best.  Instead he showed them he was his very best as a legislator -- and drove the sourthern slaveocracy utterly bugeffuck.  I get such a kick out of the splutters and howling and sheer heart explosion territory he drove them into as they tried to stop his inexorable and endless challenges and -- worst of all, nobody knew the rules and the ins-and-outs of EVERYTHING at every level of government in D.C. the way he did.  His father and his father's friends -- including Madison, who was quite fond of the boy -- wrote most of it!

 

[Martell Spy]

Yeah, I agree on AOC and the timing. It would be very foolish to challenge a popular Harris in 2024, or a popular Biden for that matter if he was running again.  Timing is very important in an endeavor like this.

There is a couple of problems with trying to game out how much greater Obama's career would be if he hadn't already reached the pinnacle at such a young age and served the full 8 years. It's hard to argue with success and not many Presidents achieve something like the ACA. Despite all that came after that still happened and it is an understatement to say that it is difficult to become President in the first place. It's like gaming out how much greater Babe Ruth could have been if he wasn't a pitcher first. He's still Babe Ruth. If Obama waited 10 years perhaps the timing and luck could well be off.

 

 

[OnionAhaiReborn]

58 minutes ago, Guy Kilmore said:

No, that doesn't fit to what I am saying.  How much influence does Obama or Clinton have right now in crafting policy, in structuring executive powers and setting the tone/focus of a debate?  It doesn't feel like that have a ton of direct pressure.  And I want to maximize that pressure.  If you hit a home run and then the batter had to retire for the rest of the game, then, yep, I could see the comparison, but, in the analogy your batter gets to keep playing.

Well for starters I question how many years of influencing policy from a position in the House or Senate can ever exceed what can be accomplished through the enormous power of the Presidency. No doubt that point exists somewhere but I'd take the sure-to-be enormous impact of the Presidency over many years of possible influence.

The second thing is that while I think you're probably right that Obama or Clinton don't exert much influence over policy in their post-Presidencies, this is by convention, there's nothing stopping them from holding elected office again.

1 hour ago, DMC said:

Not really.  A home run yields the team maximum potential value for that plate appearance.  This would be more like overusing a star pitcher early in their career which then leads injuries that significantly shorten his career and prime years.

I'd happily watch my star pitcher's arm fall off for a World Series win, though.

Baseball analogies are fun.

Let me also say I'm glad we all seem to agree that the home-run-as-rally-killer take is a bad one, in its original context. 

[Zorral]

13 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

Yeah, I agree on AOC and the timing. It would be very foolish to challenge a popular Harris in 2024, or a popular Biden for that matter if he was running again

You all aren't seeing the whole picture.  It's not about AOC running in 2024 or when the eff.

It's about shyte like Bob Effin' Corker, Jeff Flake, Charlie Dent, Carlos Curbelo can get more time and be given more attention and welcome at the Dem Con than AOC.  That is wrong.  Just effin' wrong.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/08/17/familiar-republicans-join-team-biden/?

[DMC]

7 minutes ago, OnionAhaiReborn said:

I'd happily watch my star pitcher's arm fall off for a World Series win, though.

Baseball analogies are fun.

Heh, yeah, right after I posted I thought of the Cubs giving up Gleyber Torres for 3 months of Aroldis Chapman as also I good analogy.  And of course, almost every Cubs fan will tell you that was worth it.  But, hopefully, neither AOC nor the Democrats will be as desperate as Cubs fans.

I enjoy baseball - or basketball or football - analogies as well.