Is Varys the main villain?

[butterweedstrover]

57 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

 

 

That is a case where we did get a confession and it wasn't a lie: Gregor really did rape Elia and smash the baby boy's head. He's merely mistaken about the identity of the baby with Elia (though I think the majority of fans here think he isn't and Young Griff isn't Aegon). 

Of course YG is a fake, but Aegon VI is alive. 

The baby cloths are in the chest Ilyrio gave Duck meaning the baby switch happened. 

It was Ashara's baby, that is why she (tries) to kill herself.

57 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

single "main character". Arya is the only character to have POV chapters in every book (although Jon Snow has more chapters total than her and Tyrion has more than even him).

Yeah, I meant more so she is the ice in a song of ice and fire. There is no actual main character. 

She is the Lyanna Stark of this timeline (horseface Arya) and she is tied to Aegon VI like Lyanna was with Rhaegar. 

[FictionIsntReal]

Per this thread, Elio & Linda got confirmation from GRRM when making the A World of Ice and Fire app whether the wine or pie was poisoned, and the app says wine. The cite is to this Discord link, which I didn't login to confirm.

 

5 hours ago, butterweedstrover said:

Of course YG is a fake, but Aegon VI is alive.

Where is Aegon VI then?

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Yeah, I meant more so she is the ice in a song of ice and fire. There is no actual main character. 

She is the Lyanna Stark of this timeline (horseface Arya) and she is tied to Aegon VI like Lyanna was with Rhaegar. 

I don't think she and any other character ("fire") make up a main duo either. Again, it's a really big ensemble, and at any rate the POV character most associated with ice is the appropriately named Jon Snow.

[butterweedstrover]

6 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

 

Where is Aegon VI then? 

We'll get to that

6 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

I don't think she and any other character ("fire") make up a main duo either. Again, it's a really big ensemble, and at any rate the POV character most associated with ice is the appropriately named Jon Snow.

Ahh, but you see people make assumptions already that Jon is ice and Dany is fire. It's not true of course but that is what the typical fantasy tropes would lead us to believe. 

Jon is a (secret) royal bastard who got the short stick in his family and is now leading the defense against the horde of ice zombies. He is pretty and likes helping others down on their luck (like Sam) and befriending enemies (like Tormund). 

Dany is the beautiful queen in exile, abused by her brother and all of society who rises from the ashes to abolish the slave trade and reclaim her rightful throne. 

Both these characters are (for the first three books at least) separate from the main action in westeros which gives them an undue level of importance in their own plot. 

Dany's mystical dragons are made of fire, and the others are made of ice (so to speak). They will clash in the end like a song with Jon and Daenerys representing each.    

 

Nice story but it makes a few mistakes. First off GRRM likes subverting typical fantasy tropes, and having the main series be titled after them goes against the primary philosophy the underlined most of the first novel.  

He did say something interesting once before. He said (in 1999 I think, or later) that once ACOK came out some people figured out his twists for the final entry into the series, but he decided not to change the plot because of that. 

Note: R+L=J was hinted at in the first book, not the second one. But something their clued in the few people GRRM talks about into the grander narrative of the series.  

The theory is also a problem for Jon. If has Targaryen blood inside him then he is not just ice. That was always a red herring anyways. 

Fast forward to AFFC and we get many more hints and clues that expand upon what ACOK told us. 

But first we go to the house of the undying. For some reason Dany is showed a vision of Rhaegar, Elia, and their newborn son. Here he says he is the prince who was promised, and The Song of Ice and Fire 

Its somewhat outrageous to name drop your series title in a book, but Game of Thrones was name dropped by Cersei in book one so we can forgive George here. 

The word is something of significance. Dany tells Jorah who then says he had never heard that word before and doesn't know what it means.   

It's important, but its also important who Rhaegar says it to. His newborn son from Elia, Aegon VI (keep that named marked down). 

It is not until book four some six years later (hahaha, six like in VI) that we learn about the Valonqar. The little brother younger and more beautiful than Rhaegar. 

He is in the image of his father (the man Cersei thought to be the most beautiful person in the world), he has Valyrian blood, he is The little brother to the murdered Rhaenys, and he is still active in the world. 

The next book we are introduced to the theory of the baby swap, only this time Aegon VI was replaced by some squealer from fleas bottom (or the likes). We also learn he has won the support of the golden company (formed by Aegor "Bittersteel" Rivers), he looks fifteen, and is never said to have a striking resemblance to his father. 

That and given Ilyrio's line (black or red, a dragon is a dragon) has lead people to believe he is a pretender. Its a convincing argument and I agree. But yet inside the chest Ilyrio gives duck is the baby cloths of prince Aegon VI. Young Griff pays it no mind, but Ilyrio has it in his manse. 

So did the baby swap happen? Well this post is getting too long as is, and I have discussed this elsewhere in the forum. Suffice to say we know Aegon VI is alive, and his backstory is given to us in AFFC prologue. 

Onto Arya. 

Well in the first book she Ned tell her she will be a queen, and Jeyne gives her the name of horseface. Its meant as an insult but she is the one that parallels Lyanna who was considered the wild horse girl. 

Arya is also the only one besides Jon to have stark blood through and through. She also terrifies the Ghost of High Heart and learns to become a killer. Not exactly the proto-typical fantasy killer, but GRRM likes subverting tropes. 

Now the Ghost of High Heart was the instigator of the tragedy of summerhall. It was a ritual that attempted to open a dragon egg. Aegon VI is trying to do the same thing in the series, and Arya is tied to him. That is the darkness the ghost of high heart sees in Arya. 

She is also, much like Lyanna in that manner. In AWOIAF Ashara Dayne tells Brandon that Rhaegar meant to use Lyanna for the ritual. 

Lyanna is also tied to two men, Robert and Rhaegar. Arya is tied to their respective off springs. 

First is Gendry. He has Robert's blood and loves war hammers. He would be the typical love interest for Arya or at least the one unsuspecting viewers would assume would be her match. Again that does not mesh with ASOIAF or the story plan GRRM has set out, but that is the assumption people make. 

Arya is also connected to Rhaegar's offspring Aegon VI. 

The three of them meet in Harrenhall, and Gendry (Robert) tells Arya (Lyanna) to stay away from Aegon (Rhaegar). 

However in ACOK she chooses Aegon over Gendry, just like Lyanna did all those years ago. Remember a secondary theme in the series is history repeating itself. Only differently this time. 

We are introduced to the Valonqar in book 2, but he is mentioned throughout the series by a few different names. On first meeting him he is describes as having a chiseled face (prototypical Targaryen look according to George), white hair, and a regal appearance that makes women swoon.  

He like Arry goes by a made up name. The surname is in respect to his father, and he dies half his hair red in respect to his dornish mother. 

They both swear a pact under the heart tree in Harrenhall just like when Lyanna married Rhaegar in secret at Harrenhall under the old gods. 

Bloodraven sees this both times, but he has another mystic besides himself. Quiathe is to him what any lover is to their counterpart. She (as some else on this forum has explained) Shiera Seastar. The latter is enthralled by Euron but that is for another time (the plots will all converge in old town). 

Where as Aegon goes to birth a dragon, Arya meets with the waif in the house of black and white. The waif tells Arya who she is, but is stopped by the kindly man. He is the same man who tried to stop Aegon (but to no avail). 

The waif was an opponent to Lyanna same as Arya, but now she is paying for her guilt. She jumped off a cliff to kill herself when she realized what happened to her baby in Kingslanding. She blames herself for starting the rebellion and for betraying Rhaegar. 

In her story (2/3 truth) that she tells she switches perspective from Aegon to herself, a noticeable breakdown I wrote about elsewhere.  

But I have spoken enough for now. 

[CamiloRP]

14 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Brokering the marriage alliance was mostly in the interests of the Lannisters & Tyrells, but LF did it because he's valued for his usefulness. Here he seemed to the Tyrells to be helping them replace that marriage with a better one.

He got Harrenhall from it, from kiling Joff he gets nothing.

 

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Why did it "suit his interest" to lie about that at all? He could have just kept his mouth shut.

Aaron Santagar would have known who's dagger it was, if Ned would have known he would have likely confront Robert, which could ressult in one of three ways: Robert and Ned talk it out, which would be against LF's interests by preventing war; Ned leaving KL; or war both of which would go against LF's interests, as he can help only if the conflict is in KL (via the goldcloaks) and then get Harrenhall via Janos Slynt.

 

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After Joff's death, everyone in the capital is focused on the aftermath of that (and not what LF is up to). While Joff was alive that sort of distraction wasn't there, because him being king was the status quo.

They're not really distracted, and it's just for a few days, the real distraction and chaos comes with Tywin's death, because he kept the realm under control, but he's the man LF put in charge by killing Joff.

 

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Not officially, and Robert didn't seem to have any inkling of that. Pycelle intuited that Cersei had him poisoned, but Cersei is one of the few people to know for a fact she didn't.

Yes... and if these killings aim to appear accidents, it would be the same case.

 

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Those all depended on use of secret passages only the Master of Whispers knew about, which is harder to defend against and LF & the Tyrells wouldn't have access to.

He still has many "hidden daggers" and you don't need hidden passages if you own the guards, or if you put poison in their food.

 

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It would be difficult to do normally, and LF left the city in part so he'd be above suspicion, and it's harder for him to engage in further conspiracy there when he's gone.

It's not hard, he leaves instructions, as he did with Dontos.

 

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There are in existence people who believe all sorts of crazy things, but neither you nor I believe this and I don't see why either of us should bother discussing that.

But I didn't bring the theory as evidence of LF poisoning Tyrions pie, I brought it up as evidence of how much Joff's death helps House Lannister, it helps it so much that it's the main evidence in a somewhat popular fan theory.

 

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Family members at each other's throats is a sort of disunity which goes over badly in that sort of society. The Baratheon brothers' inability to get along at the start of the war seriously undermined them and made others unwilling to support them.

People where unwilling to support Stannis, but Renley had a lot of support, he had the support of two kindgoms, the biggest support any contender for King of The Seven Kingdoms had, and he had the biggest support when looking at troops as well. 

 

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The Faith I would grant you is a serious impediment, recently (if inadvertently) empowered by Cersei. But the Small Council are only there via appointment by the king and can easily be replaced. Men who had previously opposed Stannis went over to him after Renly died, and the Tyrells are only with the Lannisters because they got a marriage alliance to the throne via Joffrey and then Tommen. If Tommen dies, lords can easily declare Stannis as the remaining Baratheon heir. Once he seizes the city (as he nearly did before), their "disinheritance" will be meaningless. They don't have anyone to put ahead of him.

But what lords would do that? the stormlords? already did it. The northen lords? doing it already, and the ones that aren't doing it won't do t. The Vale Lords? unlikely. Dorne? almost impossible. The Trident lords? unlikely. The Lords of the West? unlikely. The Reach? almost impossible. Iron islands? almost impossible.

He would win no more support. And from a Law stance, his claim would be void by him being a traitor, so he doesn't have a better claim that Myrcella. 

But still, Tommen is still alive, and there are no reasons to believe he'll die.

 

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I don't understand this. He's had a claim ever since Robert died.

What I meant was that he had the same claim as before, as people who would believe Joffrey and Tommen to be legitimate would consider him a traitor and a rebel, so unfit to be a king.

 

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Do they think an attack is likely? The military conflict seems to be limited to the Riverlands & North.

Stannis and Euron are still claiming to be kings, so it's in their best interest to keep House Lannister strong.

 

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Olenna presumably wasn't trying to misdirect anyone, and Tyrion himself doesn't find it that notable, but you think someone else fiddled with Sansa's hairnet in a way that GRRM didn't write about in hopes that attentive readers would simply imagine it after refusing to accept LF's confession.

Maybe her hairnet was crooked. And what I'm saying wouldn't be nothing new to him.

 

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You've noted how the Tyrells benefitted from Joffrey's assassination.

Yes, it makes sense for her to kill Joffrey, it doesn't make sense for her to ally herself with LF, a man she has no reason to trust, and  involve two other people that might be caught, if in the end the plan is just herself poisoning Joffrey and carrying the poison with herself from the beginning of the wedding.

 

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The Tyrells had already worked for him before and he's helping them out without seeming to cost them anything.

Yes, it costs them a witness, for all they know he's just testing to see if they are loyal, and plans tot urn them in w/o poisoning Joff. They have no reason to trust him, and he brings nothing to the table.

 

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An old woman fiddling with a young woman's hairnet would not seem that notable, as it wasn't known to have poison in it. And if that were revealed afterward, an old woman like her would seem above suspicion.

Yet it would be easier to carry it with herself, if anyone saw her pulling a stone from the hairnet it would be suspicious, while taking something from her pocket would not.

 

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Dontos is the one we know was involved in this plot, and he was murdered as soon as it was finished. We haven't gotten any indication that agents of LF have done anything subsequently for him in KL.

But he's LF, he has many hidden daggers and as the man who pays the wagers and help plan the wedding it would be easy for him to have a hidden dagger work as a server and poison the pie while serving it to Tyrion.

 

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Her personality is to not care if her granddaughter is marrying a monster, with his previous betrothed insisting Margaery can't marry him? And she's known for her sharp tongue, not her reserve & reticence.

She wouldn't act concerned in front of Sansa.

 

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She wasn't "an enemy", she had even betrayed Ned to Cersei because she wanted to stay and marry Joffrey. Joffrey insisting on treating her like one made her hate him.

She was the daughter of a traitor and the sister of a rebel. She was a hostage. Treating her badly does not equal treating badly the daughter of your main supporter who has a way bigger army than yours, and the sister of your bodyguard. 

 

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If Sansa had convincingly indicated that the rumors were exaggerations, then there would be no need to carry out the plan.

So, not only they trusted an untrustworthy man, a man who has prove himself a king's man, a man who had nothing to offer, in the attempted killing of a king, but they conspired with this man without being sure if they wanted to kill the king?

 

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We are not privy to the exact details of LF's conversations with the Tyrells. But I'm pretty sure LF was planning the assassination even before they agreed to it.

But he seems to claim they made the plans while planning the betrothal.

 

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No, the Tullys have had Riverrun for as long as it existed. The Whents only got Harrenhal recently. LF would not have the legitimacy that comes with long tenure with either, but at least now he can claim the biggest castle with the most associated lands.

But the biggest castle means nothing. He has domain over The Trident, the castle matters not. Why then he kept insisting on having it?

 

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Could she marry, say, Marillion? I think the lords would simply refuse to accept that. LF faces a lot of opposition in the Vale, but he manages to get through it and his raised status helps with that. He'd be much less likely to marry off his "bastard" to Harry the Heir otherwise.

The Vale lords don't accept her marrying LF either. And why does specifically Harrenhall helps with it, and not Darry, Riverrun, or whatever.

 

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Varys is also a member, but even aside from being a eunuch isn't noble at all. Qyburn gets added, and being a member doesn't make him less odious to most westerosi nobles. Rossart was a member, but was still lowly enough that Jaime recalls nobody asking how he died.

Varys, Rossart and Qyburn are off putting and the latter two where only in the council for a short period of time. They aren't good matches for people with no place to live, but Lysa has it, and marrying a member of the SC cements an alliance with the king, it's basically adding a family member to the SC.

 

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He's not doing anything practically in the Riverlands, he's just using the prestige associated with the castle to move upward.

But there's more prestige associated with Riverrun.

 

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At that point granting the castle might be taken a bit more seriously, but it could hold out for a long time. Harrenhal had already fallen to the Lannisters, so their claim of dispossessing the Whents (who had a more tenuous hold than a family which has held a castle for centuries) can be taken more seriously.

He's not on the castle, so he can clearly wait.

 

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There's no indication the intended target is supposed to be a mystery at all.

There doesn't need to be.

 

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"Cersei wasn’t fooled by this for a second. She doesn’t believe that it was an accidental death." which would be wrong if she was fooled and the victim being Joffrey was an accident.

Yes, but he wouldn't reveal it in that way.

 

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I'm quoting GRRM, he's the one who brings up "the whole realm" reacting to the death of Joffrey compared to King Eustace, whom he says was his inspiration for this death. If the intended target was Tyrion, the assassin wouldn't need to "hope for" any particular reaction from "the whole realm".

My bad :/ sorry.

Again tho, he wouldn't reveal the thing in that way, and the opinion for "the whole realm" would be just public opinion, if the public opinion was that it was murder, the murderer could be discovered.

 

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They poisoned the wine when Joffrey was distracted by cutting the pie.

He still drinks with no food around, if the poison had worked as quickly as it did with Cressen he would have died before eating the pie, and it would have been impossible to disguise it as a chocking.

 

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We don't know that for a fact, and putting it in the serving bowl for the cream would risk poisoning a lot more people, while if you tried to put it in cream already spread on pie it would probably be visible. The one thing we know the strangler dissolves in is wine. If we actually wanted to think through the chemistry, alcohol molecules are polar, and polar solutions tend to dissolve ionic (which is as polar as it gets) substances, so that's likely what the strangler is. Cream contains lots of fats, and fats are lipids, which are non-polar (like oil, which doesn't mix with a polar liquid like water). Milk, which we extract cream from, is actually a colloid of fats & water rather than a chemical solution.

You don't even know if it works when it's ground up rather than dissolved in wine. And we know one of the stones from Sansa's hairnet is missing, so it's all beside the point.

Again, putting a stone on top of a piece of pie would be more noticeable than dissolving it in wine. And Joffrey's goblet is designated as his well ahead of time (by the Tyrells themselves) and visually distinctive, so everyone can easily keep an eye on it and distinguish it from other cups (or pieces of pie). Even the size of the chalice enables a larger quantity of wine to dissolve the strangler in.

I imagine the poison kills you no matter how you consume it. 

So, if your plan is to fake a choking, you shouldn't put it in something you can't choke on, so if it needed to be dissolved specifically in something that wouldn't be around, you should go to the wedding with it dissolved in a vial or something.

To me what happened is that a servant served Tyrion his pie, put the cream on it, took advantage that Tyrion was distracted by the joust and Sansa was distracted by Illin Payne to take a stone from Sansa and either dissolving it in Tyrion's pie or crush it between his fingers and springle it on top.

 

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That is a case where we did get a confession and it wasn't a lie: Gregor really did rape Elia and smash the baby boy's head. He's merely mistaken about the identity of the baby with Elia (though I think the majority of fans here think he isn't and Young Griff isn't Aegon).

Not the point, the text said both him and JC had died, but then we learn they didn't. LF confessed, but he's a liar, so it could be a lie.

 

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And indeed he might have been, although they could still get rid of him after that.

If it was the case, then his latter claims would be a lie. So again, the text would say something and we later would find out it wasn't true.

 

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We never got a confession from them, and what Pycelle confessed to was true (he was merely mistaken about Cersei actually killing Jon Arryn rather than merely wanting him to die).

Same answer as before.

 

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The close reader is supposed to ignore a confession which isn't impossible and never actually gets a debunking in the books?

Yes. It happens in many books. A character states something, but the subtext says something different. We would know what Sansa knows: LF killed Joff, because we're in her perspective, but if we look at the facts we can find something different. 

 

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GRRM confirmed it, as did the show.

The books are not the show, and the text never confirms it. If GRRM hadn't confirm it it would still be true, even if the book didn't state it.

 

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This is a case where there WAS a direct answer, a confession even, but you want to ignore it. I think Mandon Moore's attempt to kill Tyrion is likely one of those cases, but there's not a direct answer given that I'm ignoring.

But it was answered by a non-POV character claiming something. We can neer know for sure, specially with LF.

 

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He brought the Strangler to the literal table in a way obfuscated from them. You may think it's simpler to keep it in your pocket, but the actual poisoner didn't given that we know the hairnet is missing a stone.

It would be easier for, let's say, a server to take it from Sansa's hairnet than have it on his pocket, as he would need to act quickly and probably had a trail in his hand. But the QOT probably had the stone in her pocket if she took it at the beginning of the wedding, so why not keep it there from the start and avoid the possibility of her being seen taking the stone from Sansa, and avoid involving Sansa and LF.

Also, LF stills brings nothing to the table. Poison shouldn't be hard to get a hold of for the QOT, there are better ways to get it that don't involve trusting an ally of the person you are assassinating, who's also basically stranger.

 

15 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

No, he doesn't say anything about his enemies "looking at him". And his enemies remain uncertain about who he is, what he wants and what he's going to do next precisely because they fail to attribute a number of things to him. The Lannisters know he helped broker the marriage alliance with the Tyrells and then prevented the Tyrells from marrying Sansa, but they don't know all the things he's done against them. The Tyrells know he arranged both the marriage & assassination of Joffrey, but not that he prevented Sansa from marrying Willas and arranged to make Sansa & Tyrion look like they poisoned Joffrey. If the Lannisters knew he'd assassinated Joffrey, they'd be baying for his blood immediately, which definitely wouldn't serve his interests.

But that's not what he says

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Always keep your foes confused. If they are never certain who you are or what you want, they cannot know what you are like to do next. Sometimes the best way to baffle them is to make moves that have no purpose, or even seem to work against you. Remember that, Sansa, when you come to play the game.

So, he plans to baffle his enemies by killing Joffrey without having a motive (making a move that had no purpose or even seem to work against him). But this wouldn't baffle his enemies about what's he's about to do next, because they don't know he did it. The only ones who would know would be the Tyrells, but he must've given them a motive, or else they have even less of a reason to trust him.

 

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The teenager didn't even know there was an assassination plot. They didn't really need to "trust" her to do anything but sit at the table, which the Lannisters were requiring her to do anyway.

She needed to take the hairnet. What if she didn't? what if she forgot or decided not to take it? It'd be easier tot take your own poison rather that involve a teenager who might not even bring it.

And why involve LF?

 

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She's the first to point to Tyrion, but Sansa's disappearance right at that time would quickly become apparent, making Tyrion seem guilty by association.

Then why did GRRM claim it was done to look like an accident? Why didn't they use a more obvious posion?

 

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We've got LF explaining how that came about. If he was intending to assassinate Tyrion, it doesn't serve nearly as much purpose.

Yes, distracting Tyrion so he doesn't notice he's being poisoned.

 

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They'd be aware the effects weren't what he claimed, and they might recognize the color as not looking like the strangler. As it is, they think LF held up his end of the bargain.

So?

 

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The Tyrells were right at the table with Joffrey while LF was away, and they provided the chalice Joff drank out of, and they can ensure their own family avoids the chalice once it's poisoned.

He has many hidden daggers, he could've used them.

 

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You quote the bit where the analsysis states that the strangler is still not in the wine when Joffrey goes to cut the pie. Margaery had just interrupted Joffrey berating Tyrion AFTER Tyrion had refilled the spilled chalice and Joffrey "drank deep". The chalice was empty BEFORE Tyrion refilled it, and per the analysis the poison wasn't in even after that. So the steps go that Joffrey dumps the wine on Tyrion's head, then makes Tyrion refill it, Joffrey drinks from the newly filled but not poisoned chalice, and Margaery sends him to cut the pie, then afterward Joffrey drinks more and eats pigeon and chokes. GRRM even lets the reader know that the cup has been left on the table while Joffrey was away, so Tyrion has to pick it up again (though not refill it this time, as he had done that earlier and did not get "a second bath" as he feared).

It wasn't emptied on Tyrion's head, but Joffrey had drank 'deep" from it and then asked Tyrion to serve him wine again right before he deis, so the cup was empty, easy to spot a stone in an empty cup.

 

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Sansa isn't even aware she's taking part in an assassination. She just wore a hairnet and sat in the spot she was assigned. Margaery is aware, but isn't actually part of the chain moving the poison to the cup (which is good because she naturally has the most direct access to Joffrey and definitely wants to be above suspicion).

Still. At least six people involved. Arianna involved seven and got ratted out, even though 3 of those seven were her friends, the fourth and fifth wouldn't betray her to Doran (and the fourth is in love with her).

While LF, an experienced player, a master conspirator, involved: a drunk, a teenager, and three strangers.

The QOT involved two family members (safe), a drunk (she might not know, but still) a teenager (whom the plan depended heavily on) and an ally of the person she's killing.

But it's even stupider as no side needed the other. LF could've used one of his agents and known supporters instead of a stranger with unknown motives, and the QOT could've not involve anyone else, given that she was doing the killing herself.

 

[FictionIsntReal]

I don't know why we're still having this conversation after I noted that GRRM confirmed it was the wine to Elio & Linda.

6 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

Yes... and if these killings aim to appear accidents, it would be the same case.

Pycelle is an expert on poisons, and he did recognize that Jon Arryn was poisoned, and instead of saying anything he ensured Jon died because Pycelle believed the Lannisters were behind it. Poisoning multiple people in the royal family without him flagging any would be tricky.

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He still has many "hidden daggers" and you don't need hidden passages if you own the guards, or if you put poison in their food.

You assume the existence of people we don't actually know about, and LF didn't "own the guards" to the extent that would permit him to assassinate royals even prior to Tyrion replacing some of his men.

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It's not hard, he leaves instructions, as he did with Dontos.

LF was able to formulate a plan and then set it in motion at a time when he was on a ship away from the scene of the crime. Over the longer term it would be more difficult to react to events in KL while far away from it.

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it's the main evidence in a somewhat popular fan theory

The existence of a fan theory isn't serious evidence because they can have such a flimsy basis.

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Renley had a lot of support

Renly had a lot of men due to a marriage alliance putting the Tyrells in line for the throne. They switched to his avowed enemy after Renly died because Joffrey could offer them a similar deal. If Joffrey & Tommen both die, Margaery isn't marrying either and the Tyrells have no reason to support them.

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He would win no more support. And from a Law stance, his claim would be void by him being a traitor, so he doesn't have a better claim that Myrcella.

After Aegon II died, the next person in line was Aegon III, who did indeed become king. And I quoted GRRM on the death of Eustace, which similarly ended a civil war (presumably an inspiration for the Dance) over the throne by eliminating one of the claimants.

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But still, Tommen is still alive, and there are no reasons to believe he'll die.

Childhood mortality was far higher in the pre-modern era.

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Maybe her hairnet was crooked. And what I'm saying wouldn't be nothing new to him.

So we saw Olenna adjust Sansa's hairnet, LF explained that the missing stone was poison that Olenna used to kill Joffrey, and Sansa hasn't remembered anyone else fiddling with her hairnet but you still think ANOTHER unnamed person must have done so despite a complete lack of evidence for that? That would be new for GRRM, as it would really be coming out of nowhere and make it seem like he was just lying to us. And how was LF able to guess that somebody "straightened" her hairnet when Olenna is the only one Sansa remembers doing that if LF wasn't conspiring with her?

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Yes, it costs them a witness, for all they know he's just testing to see if they are loyal, and plans tot urn them in w/o poisoning Joff

What is he going to do? Recording devices don't exist, so he can't play the Lannisters a tape of their conversation prior to the wedding.

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if anyone saw her pulling a stone from the hairnet it would be suspicious, while taking something from her pocket would not

Her fiddling with Sansa's hairnet was visible but seemed innoccuous. And in the pre-modern era women used pouches on belts rather than pockets sewn into their clothing. Reaching into one of those would not be as discrete as a pocket you might have your hand in idly.

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he has many hidden daggers

Ones you simply assume exist and are capable of doing this rather than knowing that to be the case.

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it would be easy for him to have a hidden dagger work as a server and poison the pie while serving it to Tyrion

He's not a castellan or directly in charge of servants, and you don't even know that the poison dissolves in pie.

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She wouldn't act concerned in front of Sansa.

She was just acting concerned enough about that very subject to press an afraid Sansa until she stopped dissembling!

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She was the daughter of a traitor and the sister of a rebel

Attila tried to marry the sister of an enemy, what of it?

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they conspired with this man without being sure if they wanted to kill the king?

It is entirely reasonable to make contingency plans which can be halted or given the go-ahead on confirmatory information.

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But he seems to claim they made the plans while planning the betrothal.

I don't think he was that detailed. Mace was the one keenest on a betrothal, while Olenna was suspicious (particularly about Joffrey).

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But the biggest castle means nothing. He has domain over The Trident, the castle matters not. Why then he kept insisting on having it?

What kind of Lord of the Trident wouldn't have a castle nearby? It would be like declaring him Emperor of Yi Ti.

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And why does specifically Harrenhall helps with it, and not Darry, Riverrun, or whatever.

Harrenhal is the largest castle and has a lot of lands directly under it (and if you think being Lord Paramount of the Trident means owning all the land, you obviously don't understand feudalism). And the Whents can no longer control it, so it's not like the more defensible and harder to obtain Riverrun.

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They aren't good matches for people with no place to live, but Lysa has it, and marrying a member of the SC cements an alliance with the king

LF has no permanent connection to the king, and when he goes to marry Lysa he left the SC with Tyrion put in his spot (and left to deal with the mess).

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But there's more prestige associated with Riverrun.

Prestige entirely accruing to the Tullys until they're removed from it.

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He's not on the castle, so he can clearly wait.

He evinced no interest in ever going there, it's not simply a matter of waiting.

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Yes, but he wouldn't reveal it in that way.

GRRM is coy when he doesn't want to reveal something, he doesn't simply lie, and that's what he would have to do here under your theory.

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Again tho, he wouldn't reveal the thing in that way, and the opinion for "the whole realm" would be just public opinion, if the public opinion was that it was murder, the murderer could be discovered.

If LF actually just wanted to assassinate Tyrion, would he even care if people realized it was a murder? People don't care as much about Tyrion, and LF himself is far enough away not to be a suspect. He might want to make such a poisoning obvious in order to cause enough of a distraction for Sansa to escape, but as you've noted he used a poison which might sometimes be mistaken for mere choking, and I'm not sure even if it was obvious that would be enough for Sansa to get away (particularly as she would be seated closer to Tyrion than Joffrey).

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if the poison had worked as quickly as it did with Cressen

And you don't know that it should, as Joffrey is younger & healthier, and he was given an unusually large goblet of wine to dilute the poison in.

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I imagine the poison kills you no matter how you consume it.

If the MECHANISM of how the poison kills you is by closing up your throat and asphyxiating you, what would happen if a stone was simply swallowed? I really don't know what would happen if the stone dissolved in the stomach. A sphere is the shape which minimizes the ratio of surface area (which can come into contact with the throat) to volume, dissolving it into a liquid spreads it out into a larger surface area and also permits interactions that a solid doesn't.

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go to the wedding with it dissolved in a vial or something

A vial is going to be more visible & suspicious than a tiny stone.

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served Tyrion his pie, put the cream on it, took advantage that Tyrion was distracted by the joust

By the time the pie arrived and got cut, Tyrion was much more distracted by Joffrey antagonizing him.

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take a stone from Sansa

Even though she ONLY remembers Olenna doing that.

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either dissolving it in Tyrion's pie or crush it between his fingers and springle it on top

You don't know that either is possible and wouldn't be noticeable.

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Not the point, the text said both him and JC had died, but then we learn they didn't. LF confessed, but he's a liar, so it could be a lie.

We didn't get anyone confessing to killing JC. Cersei's confession of her children being incestuous bastards, despite that being an outlandish possibility and not deducible given real-world genetics, is supposed to be accepted well before Jaime & her become POV characters. Pycelle & Gregor's confessions are honest even if they have some mistaken beliefs. After LF makes this confession he seems to be taking it upon himself to teach Sansa to be less naive. He explains much of his plotting in the Vale, including things like bribing Lyn Corbray to pretend to be LF's enemy. Do you think LF was lying about that? And why is he lying by confessing to assassinating Joffrey when he didn't intend to? What was he going to tell Sansa if Tyrion had actually been poisoned (assuming she could reach the ship, which as I've noted seems less likely in that scenario)?

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If it was the case, then his latter claims would be a lie

What claim?

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A character states something, but the subtext says something different

The subtext is just in your head here. GRRM is not expecting any readers to assume that the Strangler also dissolves in pie/cream without being noticeable and that someone else fiddled with Sansa's hairnet even if she only remembered Olenna doing that.

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The books are not the show, and the text never confirms it.

I suppose that depends on whether you consider the app to be "the text".

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But it was answered by a non-POV character claiming something. We can neer know for sure, specially with LF.

A non-POV character denying an accusation might be lying, but do we have any other instances of their confession being a lie?

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It would be easier for, let's say, a server to take it from Sansa's hairnet

A server fiddling with Sansa's hairnet would seem odd. That's not their job, and they're too low-status to be fiddling with nobles when it's not their job.

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But the QOT probably had the stone in her pocket

Or it went directly from her hand to Garlan's.

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Poison shouldn't be hard to get a hold of for the QOT

So you're also an expert on how easy it is to obtain poison? And if she has a difference of opinion with Mace, can she tolerate word getting back to him?

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So, he plans to baffle his enemies by killing Joffrey without having a motive (making a move that had no purpose or even seem to work against him). But this wouldn't baffle his enemies about what's he's about to do next, because they don't know he did it.

His enemies ARE baffled and they DON'T know what he's going to do next BECAUSE they don't know he did this. Being away from the action so he wasn't being looked at was THE PLAN. Sansa isn't confused by this line of reasoning because it's not contradictory or really that hard to grasp. If LF had assassinated someone he had a known motive to assassinate, he would be a suspect, and people might expect him to do more such things. But here he has clean hands and no known connections (especially with Dontos dead and Sansa unwilling to show her face). The Lannisters have no idea he's been undermining them, and even the Tyrells who just conspired with him don't know he acted to undermine them.

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Then why did GRRM claim it was done to look like an accident? Why didn't they use a more obvious posion?

You have to distinguish the Tyrells from LF. The Tyrells actually did the poisoning, using a poison that could look like an accident, and initially one of the Tyrells reassures Margaery that she couldn't have done anything as Joffrey choked on the pie (which Tyrion sarcastically claims as well when he's being grilled). LF secretly wants to undermine both the Lannisters & Tyrells, so he arranged to make Tyrion look suspicious via the dwarves & Sansa's disappearance. The Tyrells don't know he did that though.

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Yes, distracting Tyrion so he doesn't notice he's being poisoned.

The jousting started well before the pie was served. I don't think it could be relied on to prevent Tyrion from noticing food served later was being tampered with. And if the poison would be visible on the pie, all he'd have to do is look at it and see before putting it in his mouth.

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So?

If the Tyrells know he acted to screw them over he'd have enemies he doesn't need, and they might figure out he removed Sansa from the city, and they might deduce he had a plan for the fallout from Joffrey's assassination, and he doesn't want them (or the Lannisters) getting close to his actual plans.

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He has many hidden daggers, he could've used them.

Again you are assuming the existence of unspecified people, but here you aren't even addressing the fact that the Tyrells have much closer access to Joffrey at his wedding than most people.

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It wasn't emptied on Tyrion's head

What are you talking about?

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the king upended the chalice over his head.

 

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Joffrey had drank 'deep" from it and then asked Tyrion to serve him wine again right before he deis

Tyrion refilled the chalice once after Joffrey dumped it on his head. He didn't have to refill it again. It is, after all, an unusually large chalice. Tyrion served again without pouring more wine.

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so the cup was empty

No, Tyrion picks up the chalice from the table where Joffrey left it without refilling it.

[CamiloRP]

6 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

I don't know why we're still having this conversation after I noted that GRRM confirmed it was the wine to Elio & Linda.

Because you never tagged me in that message, so I didn't read it. But also, I don't trust in everything the app says and GRRM has lied many times before, so I wouldn't take it as definitive proof, tho it does make me reconsider things a bit.

 

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Pycelle is an expert on poisons, and he did recognize that Jon Arryn was poisoned, and instead of saying anything he ensured Jon died because Pycelle believed the Lannisters were behind it. Poisoning multiple people in the royal family without him flagging any would be tricky.

Sure, maybe. Still tho, killing Tywin alone would do more damage than killing Tyrion.

 

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You assume the existence of people we don't actually know about, and LF didn't "own the guards" to the extent that would permit him to assassinate royals even prior to Tyrion replacing some of his men.

Assuming LF doesn't have people in KL we don't know about is a bigger leap in logic than assumin he does, in my opinion.

But still, he has the Kettleblacks, Dontos, and probably more I'm forgetting. He also has pull with the GC. He could have two GC loyal to him guarding Tywin and have them let Dontos or another GC or anyone in in the night, kill him while he sleeps and then go. Or just pay a cook to poison his food.

 

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LF was able to formulate a plan and then set it in motion at a time when he was on a ship away from the scene of the crime. Over the longer term it would be more difficult to react to events in KL while far away from it.

It doesn't need to be much more time.

 

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The existence of a fan theory isn't serious evidence because they can have such a flimsy basis.

But it wasn't my only evidence, I listed many things, you only focused on that.

 

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Renly had a lot of men due to a marriage alliance putting the Tyrells in line for the throne. They switched to his avowed enemy after Renly died because Joffrey could offer them a similar deal. If Joffrey & Tommen both die, Margaery isn't marrying either and the Tyrells have no reason to support them.

No one else if offering them a marriage alliance either, and they could possibly wed Myrcella to Loras.

 

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After Aegon II died, the next person in line was Aegon III, who did indeed become king.

so?

 

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And I quoted GRRM on the death of Eustace, which similarly ended a civil war (presumably an inspiration for the Dance) over the throne by eliminating one of the claimants.

Yes, but he wasn't accused of the murder, it was said to be an accident, Stannis IS a traitor and a rebel, and he has almost no military might or support.

 

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Childhood mortality was far higher in the pre-modern era.

Yes. Off course. Still tho, no reason to believe he would die, he's healthy and rich.

 

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So we saw Olenna adjust Sansa's hairnet, LF explained that the missing stone was poison that Olenna used to kill Joffrey, and Sansa hasn't remembered anyone else fiddling with her hairnet but you still think ANOTHER unnamed person must have done so despite a complete lack of evidence for that? That would be new for GRRM, as it would really be coming out of nowhere and make it seem like he was just lying to us. And how was LF able to guess that somebody "straightened" her hairnet when Olenna is the only one Sansa remembers doing that if LF wasn't conspiring with her?

Sansa was distracted. LF claim it was Olenna after Sansa said Olenna did it. Aegon being alive came more out of nowhere than this. Yeah, that last bit is weird, tho why would he know how Olenna would take the stone? it's a weird thing to plan.

 

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What is he going to do? Recording devices don't exist, so he can't play the Lannisters a tape of their conversation prior to the wedding.

Well, if the SC sent him to find out if they are loyal his word would be enough to condemn them. Also, as a member of the SC, the SC is more prone to believe in him than people who aren't allies yet and where traitors days ago.

Also, if LF would tell Cersei that his spies tell him Olenna posioned Joff, would you think she won't believe him?

 

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Her fiddling with Sansa's hairnet was visible but seemed innoccuous. And in the pre-modern era women used pouches on belts rather than pockets sewn into their clothing. Reaching into one of those would not be as discrete as a pocket you might have your hand in idly.

she could have a pocket sewn into her sleeves like a maester. It seems like a better option.

 

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Ones you simply assume exist and are capable of doing this rather than knowing that to be the case.

He claims to have them tho, and we know of some. Is more likely he has some extra than he hasn't.

 

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He's not a castellan or directly in charge of servants, and you don't even know that the poison dissolves in pie.

He's in charge of the people in charge of servants tho. Most people doing administrative work in KL where put there by him.

 

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She was just acting concerned enough about that very subject to press an afraid Sansa until she stopped dissembling!

She got what she wanted, why reveal more?

 

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Attila tried to marry the sister of an enemy, what of it?

It's still not the same case as MArgeary, and you know that. Margeary has many people near her to protect her, even from him, and angering Margeary's family should be a real concern as they are his main allies and double his forces, while The North is already in war with him.

 

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It is entirely reasonable to make contingency plans which can be halted or given the go-ahead on confirmatory information.

Yes, but not make them with people you have no reason to trust.

 

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I don't think he was that detailed. Mace was the one keenest on a betrothal, while Olenna was suspicious (particularly about Joffrey).

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"Be that as it may. Lady Olenna was not about to let Joff harm her precious darling granddaughter, but unlike her son she also realized that under all his flowers and finery, Ser Loras is as hot-tempered as Jaime Lannister. Toss Joffrey, Margaery, and Loras in a pot, and you've got the makings for kingslayer stew. The old woman understood something else as well. Her son was determined to make Margaery a queen, and for that he needed a king . . . but he did not need Joffrey. We shall have another wedding soon, wait and see. Margaery will marry Tommen. She'll keep her queenly crown and her maidenhead, neither of which she especially wants, but what does that matter? The great western alliance will be preserved . . . for a time, at least."

He's clearly hinting that that's when it happened.

 

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What kind of Lord of the Trident wouldn't have a castle nearby? It would be like declaring him Emperor of Yi Ti.

Not what I said, I said he didn't need that castle. Why not Riverrun? It would even fit more with his inferiority complex, take the castle of the man who told him to low born to marry his daughter.

 

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Harrenhal is the largest castle and has a lot of lands directly under it (and if you think being Lord Paramount of the Trident means owning all the land, you obviously don't understand feudalism). 

I never said that.

 

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LF has no permanent connection to the king, and when he goes to marry Lysa he left the SC with Tyrion put in his spot (and left to deal with the mess).

He's an abvious ally of the king.

 

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Prestige entirely accruing to the Tullys until they're removed from it.

Again, he can wait, when he received Harrenhall it wasn't in the hands of the Lannisters.

 

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GRRM is coy when he doesn't want to reveal something, he doesn't simply lie, and that's what he would have to do here under your theory.

He has lied many times, but this wouldn't be lying he said she wasn't fooled by it being an accident, she knew it was poison, that's it. Also, if the target was inteded to be Tyrion no one would be fooling her, it would just be a mistake, but if the plan as to frame Tyrion she was absolutely fooleed.

 

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If LF actually just wanted to assassinate Tyrion, would he even care if people realized it was a murder? People don't care as much about Tyrion, and LF himself is far enough away not to be a suspect. He might want to make such a poisoning obvious in order to cause enough of a distraction for Sansa to escape, but as you've noted he used a poison which might sometimes be mistaken for mere choking, and I'm not sure even if it was obvious that would be enough for Sansa to get away (particularly as she would be seated closer to Tyrion than Joffrey).

Well, if his plan is to have anyone follor Sansa, it's harder to do so if they think she poisoned her husband, Westeros's code of honor if against posioning specifically and really fucking against kinslaying. And if they thought he was the culprit Tywin would have his head, he would suffer no insult towards House Lannister, he started a war bc he was kidnapped, what would he do to the man who killed him?

 

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And you don't know that it should, as Joffrey is younger & healthier, and he was given an unusually large goblet of wine to dilute the poison in.

Neither do the Tyrells, I imagine he has less bodymass than Cressen, and he's been drinking which helps the blood flor and the poison act faster. But even then, what if he never grabbed Tyrion's pie? They couldn't know he would it.

 

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A vial is going to be more visible & suspicious than a tiny stone.

Wine is going to be suspicious if you intend to make it look like a choking. Taking the poison form the head of a girl is going to be more visible and obvious than carrying it yourself.

 

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By the time the pie arrived and got cut, Tyrion was much more distracted by Joffrey antagonizing him.

Yes, that's what I meant, he was distracted by the situation, a situation that started with the jousters that LF hired.

 

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Even though she ONLY remembers Olenna doing that.

She doesn't remember Olenna taking a stone from her, she remembers her fixing her hairnet. And I said many times, the plan was to distract her so she wouldn't notice someone in her head.

 

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And why is he lying by confessing to assassinating Joffrey when he didn't intend to? 

It makes him look more capable ad endears him more to Sansa, who hated Joff and while she didn't like Tyrion, she liked him more than the rest.

If everything would have gone according to plan (assuming killing Tyrion was his plan) he could say that he freed her from being married to a monster and freed The North from being under Lannister control.

 

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What claim?

That he expected Viserys to die in the Dothraki sea. If he did so, but wanted him as a king that would make him a bad player.

 

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The subtext is just in your head here. GRRM is not expecting any readers to assume that the Strangler also dissolves in pie/cream without being noticeable and that someone else fiddled with Sansa's hairnet even if she only remembered Olenna doing that.

It may be in my head. And what you point out are fairly big assumptions, yet I still find Olenna joining LF with no reason to make no sense and the whole plan LF claims, it makes no sense to me. There could be reveals in latter books that clarify it and make it make more sense, we don't know LF's goal, maybe he's a Tyrell loyalist, maybe he has a glass candle or is a powerful warg or sorcerer and brainwashed Olenna into doing it, maybe him and Olenna are lovers, I don't know. But with things as are I find the claim plan quite stupid and nonsensical, you help me qith a couple of things tho, it makes more sense than it did before, but it still isn't much.

 

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I suppose that depends on whether you consider the app to be "the text".

I don't. The text is whats written down in the books, that's all. The rest is extra material, even GRRM said that if something from TWOIAF contradicts the books then it's not so. Is Dumbledore gay? Is Deckard a replicant? No, the text doesn't say so.

 

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A non-POV character denying an accusation might be lying, but do we have any other instances of their confession being a lie?

I don't see why we need an example to know it's a possibility, people lie. If LF thinks it would make him look good in the eyes of Sansa to confess, why wouldn't he? It's not like he's confessing to murder in her eyes, he's confessing on saving her from a monster.

Marillion confessed to the murder of Lysa. 

 

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A server fiddling with Sansa's hairnet would seem odd. That's not their job, and they're too low-status to be fiddling with nobles when it's not their job.

The idea is to have no one notice it, and why would anyone do so? I imagine he would just quickly grab a stone from the net, nothing else.

 

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Or it went directly from her hand to Garlan's.

Then he had it on his pocket, so why didn't he just take his own poison from the beginning.

 

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So you're also an expert on how easy it is to obtain poison? And if she has a difference of opinion with Mace, can she tolerate word getting back to him?

I mean, both Pycelle and Cressen had it, she's rich, she could probably get some, and also many members of her family are maesters, she could ask them. Also Highgarden has a maester that presumably has the strangler, she could have him in the conspiracy (if he's trustworthy) or just rob him.

 

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His enemies ARE baffled and they DON'T know what he's going to do next BECAUSE they don't know he did this.

So how does doing this baffle them more? One thing would be if he had a reason to kill Joff and no one thought he did it. But doing it because no one thinks you'll do it just to baffle them, but no one thinking you did it makes no sense. People are as baffled by his motives as they where before Joff's death.

 

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Being away from the action so he wasn't being looked at was THE PLAN.

So, his motive to kill Joffrey was... people not knowing he killed Joffrey?

 

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If LF had assassinated someone he had a known motive to assassinate, he would be a suspect, and people might expect him to do more such things. But here he has clean hands and no known connections (especially with Dontos dead and Sansa unwilling to show her face). The Lannisters have no idea he's been undermining them, and even the Tyrells who just conspired with him don't know he acted to undermine them.

But he baffles no one with this. They think of his goals as they did before, this is all and well if he had a reason to kill him and didn't want to be a suspect, but he claims his reason is to confuse people by him killing Joff, except no one knows he did it!

 

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You have to distinguish the Tyrells from LF. The Tyrells actually did the poisoning, using a poison that could look like an accident, and initially one of the Tyrells reassures Margaery that she couldn't have done anything as Joffrey choked on the pie (which Tyrion sarcastically claims as well when he's being grilled). LF secretly wants to undermine both the Lannisters & Tyrells, so he arranged to make Tyrion look suspicious via the dwarves & Sansa's disappearance. The Tyrells don't know he did that though.

How does that undermine the Tyrells? He frame someone they don't care about.

 

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If the Tyrells know he acted to screw them over he'd have enemies he doesn't need, and they might figure out he removed Sansa from the city, and they might deduce he had a plan for the fallout from Joffrey's assassination, and he doesn't want them (or the Lannisters) getting close to his actual plans.

If they conspired with him they know he took Sansa, and I'm not claiming he told then, it would just be obvious to them.

 

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Again you are assuming the existence of unspecified people, but here you aren't even addressing the fact that the Tyrells have much closer access to Joffrey at his wedding than most people.

It makes more sense for there to be such people than not to be. Aso, the servants have more acces to what Joff's consumes than anyone.

 

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What are you talking about?

The second time, I was agreeing with you "It wasn't emptied on tyrions head but Joffrey drank deep" (emptying it)

 

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Tyrion refilled the chalice once after Joffrey dumped it on his head. He didn't have to refill it again. It is, after all, an unusually large chalice. Tyrion served again without pouring more wine.

No, Tyrion picks up the chalice from the table where Joffrey left it without refilling it.

Might be. But I always assumed it was an ellipsis, even before reading the theory.

 

[FictionIsntReal]

2 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

I don't trust in everything the app says

It's alright if you only consider it semi-canon GENERALLY, but I linked to a discussion about how Elio & Linda got GRRM to confirm SPECIFICALLY whether it was the wine or pie when they were making the app.

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GRRM has lied many times before

When? And don't bring up blown deadlines.

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so I wouldn't take it as definitive proof

It sounds like there would be no proof definitive enough for you, even GRRM himself repeatedly slapping you with a book while shouting "OLENNA POISONED JOFFREY'S WINE!".

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Assuming LF doesn't have people in KL we don't know about

He owns brothels, so he presumably has people there. But people with access to Joffrey during his wedding? That is another thing.

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But still, he has the Kettleblacks

He discusses them:

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"The lads are far too treacherous to be part of any such scheme . . . and Osmund has become especially unreliable since he joined the Kingsguard. That white cloak does things to a man, I find. Even a man like him."

And we don't know of the "lads" doing anything more for him, though they do become part of Cersei's conspiracies. A white cloak would be an advantage in assassinating a king if one wearing it wanted to do so though.

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Dontos

LF, like you, notes that he's an unreliable drunk. Plus, as a fool, people will be watching him perform, and he won't have any particular access to Joffrey's chalice. Additionally, the fact that LF killed him shows that he didn't want a leave a loose end in KL after the assassination.

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It doesn't need to be much more time.

If he was going to carry out multiple assassinations, there would be a reaction to the first which plans for the second would need to take into account (unless they took place too closely together for a reaction, which would also be tricky to pull off).

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they could possibly wed Myrcella to Loras

Loras already swore a vow of celibacy when he joined the KG, so I'll have to assume you meant another brother. At any rate, the "iron precedent" bars women from the throne.

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Yes, but he wasn't accused of the murder, it was said to be an accident, Stannis IS a traitor and a rebel, and he has almost no military might or support.

Stannis isn't being accused of having killed Joffrey in this scenario, is he? He's just benefiting from being the remaining claimant. And we know his support grew before after a rival was eliminated.

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Sansa was distracted. LF claim it was Olenna after Sansa said Olenna did it.

LF doesn't initially say who it was, instead denying Sansa's initial guesses. He then wagers that someone "straightened" her hairnet and confirms when Sansa remarks Olenna did it. How did LF know Sansa would recall one single person doing that? And if LF had some unknown person also fiddling with her hairnet (even though we don't read about it), wouldn't he expect Sansa to name that person? What was he going to say if Sansa named that hypothetical person, since your version is that he's lying about who took the stone for some unexplained reason? And if he couldn't anticipate Olenna would on a whim (rather than a plan) straighten out the hairnet, isn't it amazing he's able to give an account right away exactly tailored to Olenna to explain whe she would poison Joffrey? And isn't it an amazing coincidence that the person who randomly fiddled with the hairnet LF used in his plot to poison Joffrey was ALSO someone LF met when he was negotiating that wedding in the first place?

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Aegon being alive came more out of nowhere than this

There was at least an SSM in which GRRM was asked to confirm the deaths of Elia's children and only did so for Rhaenys. But since you think he's a liar, maybe Rhaenys is alive while Aegon really was killed!

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Yeah, that last bit is weird

Not merely weird, I say impossible to explain under your alternate theory.

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tho why would he know how Olenna would take the stone

He told the Tyrells about the hairnet containing the poison, he could well have said "pretend to straighten it and you can loosen a stone". But he couldn't know she would do that if they never discussed the hairnet at all!

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it's a weird thing to plan

If you were going to carry out an assassination via that object, it's definitely something you SHOULD plan for.

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Well, if the SC sent him to find out if they are loyal

He was first sent to the Tyrells KNOWING they were disloyal and had supported Renly, his task was to get them to switch sides. Sending him again to check for disloyalty right after they joined but before the wedding even took place would be weird.

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his word would be enough to condemn them

What if he only conspired the assassination with Olenna rather than Mace? How much of an intelligence coup would that be?

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Also, if LF would tell Cersei that his spies tell him Olenna posioned Joff, would you think she won't believe him?

Most credible of all would be if he burned his bridges with everyone by saying that he conspired with the Tyrells to do it. If he wasn't in on it, how would he know? And the Tyrells aren't expecting him to burn his bridges because they don't know all of his larger plans to destabilize the regime.

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she could have a pocket sewn into her sleeves like a maester

It's normal for a maester to wear maester's robes designed to accomodate those. Less common for an old woman to wear a dress like that to her daughter's wedding. How much time does she have to modify her dress, and if she's doing those without Mace in the loop can she risk the person doing the work not blabbing?

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Is more likely he has some extra than he hasn't.

Are those "extra" able to carry out something like this?

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He's in charge of the people in charge of servants tho

Who?

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She got what she wanted, why reveal more?

She has no qualms insulting her son, why not follow it up with "Damn, I warned that oaf but he wouldn't listen?". That wouldn't be revealing anything more.

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It's still not the same case as MArgeary

I was comparing Attila & Honoria to Joffrey & Sansa. Sansa really did want to marry him, so there was no reason to treat her as an "enemy". Joffrey did it because he's a sadist.

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He's clearly hinting that that's when it happened.

He's explaining the difference between Mace & Olenna's beliefs/goals, but not the details of how the conspiracy formed.

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Why not Riverrun? It would even fit more with his inferiority complex, take the castle of the man who told him to low born to marry his daughter.

Claiming that castle while that man's family are still able to defend it doesn't do a whole lot for your complex.

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He's an abvious ally of the king.

He has helped the king in the past. But we readers know for a fact that he's also undermined the king (even aside from this), and it's precisely because he has no permanent ties that he can afford to be so disloyal.

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Again, he can wait, when he received Harrenhall it wasn't in the hands of the Lannisters.

It had been in their hands and out of the hands of the Whents. As far as everyone was concerned the castle no longer had an owner and was up for grabs.

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He has lied many times

When?

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Also, if the target was inteded to be Tyrion no one would be fooling her

If you come to the wrong conclusion, you are fooled, even if you are the person who fooled yourself. As Feynman said, you are the easiest person for you to fool!

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Well, if his plan is to have anyone follor Sansa, it's harder to do so if they think she poisoned her husband

It's harder for her to escape in the confusion if all eyes are on her when her husband chokes. Sansa wanted to escape much earlier, but LF chose this time for it. If Tyrion can no longer claim Winterfell via Sansa, the Lannisters & Tyrells would both try to beat each other to claiming her, which would not be good circumstances to sneaking her out under their noses either.

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And if they thought he was the culprit Tywin would have his head, he would suffer no insult towards House Lannister, he started a war bc he was kidnapped, what would he do to the man who killed him?

True, but with LF far away he's a much less obvious suspect. Tyrion didn't tell his family about LF framing him for the dagger, and he didn't understand enough of LF's fishy bookkeeping to explain what was going on there either.

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I imagine he has less bodymass than Cressen, and he's been drinking which helps the blood flor and the poison act faster

If the poison was suffusing throughout his body in order to take effect, his mass and bloodflow would be relevant. But instead it's the throat which is affected. Everything below the neck doesn't matter.

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But even then, what if he never grabbed Tyrion's pie? They couldn't know he would it.

It doesn't have to be Tyrion's pie, it can be any food.

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aking the poison form the head of a girl is going to be more visible and obvious than carrying it yourself.

Lots of people saw Olenna do that, but nobody who saw it thought anything of it (even Sansa, and even after realizing Dontos had gotten her to wear it because he was expecting this).

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She doesn't remember Olenna taking a stone from her, she remembers her fixing her hairnet

Yes, and? LF knew Sansa would remember one person doing that, and Sansa ONLY remembers Olenna doing that.

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And I said many times, the plan was to distract her so she wouldn't notice someone in her head.

If LF expected her to be distracted while ANOTHER person we don't know of fiddled with her hairnet WITHOUT her noticing, how would LF be able to guess that Sansa WOULD remember someone doing just that? I can't see any explanation other than that he knew what Olenna was going to do.

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It makes him look more capable ad endears him more to Sansa, who hated Joff and while she didn't like Tyrion, she liked him more than the rest.

Isn't he extraordinarily lucky then that an accident worked out better for him than his actual plan would have. It's almost like he planned it! And if Joffrey's death was a surprise, he's really quickly able to come up with an explanation.

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If everything would have gone according to plan (assuming killing Tyrion was his plan) he could say that he freed her from being married to a monster and freed The North from being under Lannister control.

Would poisoning Tyrion instead of Joffrey really be sufficient to free Sansa? Dontos doesn't act surprised either, he knew Joffrey's death was just the time to steal Sansa away, and he chortles about how the "magic" hairnet did it. LF has no reaction when Sansa refers to Joffrey rather than Tyrion being poisoned.

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That he expected Viserys to die in the Dothraki sea. If he did so, but wanted him as a king that would make him a bad player.

NOT Viserys, Daenerys. He tried to keep Viserys in his manse at Pentos, but Viserys refused to listen.

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we don't know LF's goal, maybe he's a Tyrell loyalist

He's DEFINITELY not, he sabotaged their attempt to marry Sansa to Garlan and had Dontos warn Sansa against the Tyrells. Plus he arranged to make Tyrion & Sansa look guilty, when the Tyrells would have benefitted from nobody questioning the death & replacement of Joffrey.

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The rest is extra material, even GRRM said that if something from TWOIAF contradicts the books then it's not so.

This doesn't contradict the books. Elio & Linda asked GRRM to confirm because the text hadn't explicitly said which. If your theory was true, why would the app confirm it was the wine AFTER he confirmed to them it was the pie instead?

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Is Deckard a replicant? No, the text doesn't say so.

Off-topic, but I'm amused you included that, because the original book was explicit that he wasn't.

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The idea is to have no one notice it, and why would anyone do so? I imagine he would just quickly grab a stone from the net, nothing else.

Doing that unnoticed is easier said than done. Olenna didn't attempt to disguise the fact that she was fiddling with the net, she let Sansa know she was doing that to "straighten" it so she wouldn't notice the stone being removed as part of that.

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Then he had it on his pocket, so why didn't he just take his own poison from the beginning.

Who said it ever went into his pocket?

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she's rich, she could probably get some

The Strangler is not something you just buy down at the market, even from a high-end vendor.

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Highgarden has a maester that presumably has the strangler, she could have him in the conspiracy (if he's trustworthy) or just rob him.

If she's keeping Mace out of the loop, it's much trickier to do that. As an old widow with an adult son, she really doesn't have much authority of her own.

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So how does doing this baffle them more? One thing would be if he had a reason to kill Joff and no one thought he did it.

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So, his motive to kill Joffrey was... people not knowing he killed Joffrey?

He does have reasons. The Tyrells know he's making a small deposit in the favor bank with them. They don't know that he acted to frame Tyrion & free Sansa from him in the confusion. And they don't know that destabilizing the regime is a long term project of his. He has repeatedly been able to make the great houses see enemies other than himself, all while he's risen in status.

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But he baffles no one with this.

They blamed Tyrion instead of him, thus they were baffled.

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this is all and well if he had a reason to kill him and didn't want to be a suspect

Of course, he didn't want to be a suspect (as he reminds Sansa, he made sure to be far away and with clean hands). Wanting to be a suspect in that assassination would make such little sense there's no point in talking about it.

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but he claims his reason is to confuse people by him killing Joff, except no one knows he did it!

No one knowing he did it means people ARE confused.

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How does that undermine the Tyrells? He frame someone they don't care about.

The Tyrells didn't want Margaery going from Joffrey to Tommen to be questioned, as they killed Joffrey. Having it revealed as an assassination rather than accident is thus risky to them. And preventing Sansa from marrying Garland (and then later stealing her away) undermined them by denying them a marriage they wanted.

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If they conspired with him they know he took Sansa, and I'm not claiming he told then, it would just be obvious to them.

How so? No one knows if Sansa is even still alive, just like when Arya escaped KL in confusion.

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Aso, the servants have more acces to what Joff's consumes than anyone.

It wasn't a servant who served Joffrey that wine, it was Tyrion. And it wasn't a servant who gave him that chalice, it was the Tyrells. Imagine LF had a single asset among however many servants. Could he guarantee that person would be the one serving Joffrey?

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"It wasn't emptied on tyrions head but Joffrey drank deep" (emptying it)

"Drank deep" doesn't mean "emptying it". Tyrion didn't refill it after that. For an oversized chalice, you wouldn't expect someone to finish it with a single gulp.

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Might be. But I always assumed it was an ellipsis, even before reading the theory.

You assumed it was empty and got refilled (again) even though the text didn't say so and you used that as a basis for your argument on how the wine couldn't have been poisoned?

[Fool Stands On Giant’s Toe]

7 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

So we saw Olenna adjust Sansa's hairnet, LF explained that the missing stone was poison that Olenna used to kill Joffrey, and Sansa hasn't remembered anyone else fiddling with her hairnet but you still think ANOTHER unnamed person must have done so despite a complete lack of evidence for that? That would be new for GRRM, as it would really be coming out of nowhere and make it seem like he was just lying to us. And how was LF able to guess that somebody "straightened" her hairnet when Olenna is the only one Sansa remembers doing that if LF wasn't conspiring with her?

Didn’t Shea put the hairnet on her? Shea also begged to go to the feast. Maybe Olenna was fixing her hair because the stone was missing? Could explain Shea’s testimony, to cover up her crime, and her death as well? Huh , just noticed the EA in Shea. Now I gotta follow this rabbit hole...(Shake my fist at sky and curse GRRM!)

[CamiloRP]

look, I see no reason to keep this thing going. With most things we are going in circles, but I'll clarify some misconceptions of my arguments.

11 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

It's alright if you only consider it semi-canon GENERALLY, but I linked to a discussion about how Elio & Linda got GRRM to confirm SPECIFICALLY whether it was the wine or pie when they were making the app.

I do not consider it cannon at all. The text should stand by itself, everything else, even authorial intent, is extra to me.

 

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When? And don't bring up blown deadlines.

Blown deadlines aren't lying, he's just really fucking optimistic sometimes, but he has lied many times before, and he has claim many thinks that then he claimed to be opposite. I don't think this is a bad thing, as he's often answered questions that he can't answer without lying, let's say something crazy, let's say Sansa isn't really Ned's daughter. So, if a fan asks him "Is Sansa Ned's daughter?" he can either lie or reveal the information, as being coy with it would be as revealing as telling the truth (bc if she is his daughter, he'd have no reason to be coy).

I can't remember many examples, but one that comes to mind is him saying (at around season 7) that the show is 90% similar to the books, while it clearly isn't.

 

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It sounds like there would be no proof definitive enough for you, even GRRM himself repeatedly slapping you with a book while shouting "OLENNA POISONED JOFFREY'S WINE!".

Nope. That's not what I said. Olenna confirming it could be a way, another way would be explaining some of the inconsistencies with the story, therefore making it more likely that it's the truth. What I said is that, if the evidence stays as it is Isee little reason to believe LF's claims, but more evidence can always change my mind.

 

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Loras already swore a vow of celibacy when he joined the KG, so I'll have to assume you meant another brother.

No, I meant Loras, KG vows can be discarded by the king now.

 

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At any rate, the "iron precedent" bars women from the throne.

Laws can be changed, and it would be in almost everyone's best interest to do so. 

Tyrion thinks Cersei is likely to accept Dornish law, as it would make her heir of Casterly Rock, and she hates Westerosi sexism.

The Dornish presumably like women being equal to men in that regard.

The Tyrell would rather have the Lannisters in the throne than Stannis, who hates them.

I don't see The North being cool with this tho, maybe it gives more legitimacy to Ramsay, via Jeyne Pool, but I don't think they would agree, specially those who rather have Stannis as king, tho those are already flipping, and their armies are insignificant.

I don't see The Vale lords agreeing, maybe HTH will, because it gives him more legitimacy (as he comes from a female line) tho maybe this would give someone else more legitimacy than him.

The Riverlands wouldn't like it, as it would bring more problems to House Frey after Walder dies, and they are like 90% of The Riverlands.

Sidenote: other riverlanders may like it, as it would make Sansa their Lady instead of captive Edmure, and the BWB would like it as it would make LSH their lady, but this goes against Lannister interest.

Stannis and Ironborn opinion on this doesn't matter as they are traitors and rebels.

But still, I think the main Lannister supporters would agree to it. 

 

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Stannis isn't being accused of having killed Joffrey in this scenario, is he? He's just benefiting from being the remaining claimant. And we know his support grew before after a rival was eliminated.

No, he's accused of rebelling against the rightful king, being a traitor to the realm, and maybe even attempted kingslayin and kinslaying, as if his rebelion would have succeeded he would have killed Joff, Myrcella and Tommen, and people love to add extra charges to make enemies seem more horrible. He's considered a horrible criminal, he couldn't be in succession, and the people against him being on the throne would use that as an excuse against the rest. 

And still tho, Tommen is still alive! being down an heir doesn't bring as much trouble as being rid of Joffrey brigns to House Lannister.

 

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Not merely weird, I say impossible to explain under your alternate theory.

It has some holes, yes, but I like this holes more than the holes in LF story.

GRRM does make mistakes (ask Seton Chyle in The Wall) so he may write a line of dialogue that makes little sense. But a whole plot point? a whole scheme that makes little sense? I think he's to careful for that.

 

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He told the Tyrells about the hairnet containing the poison, he could well have said "pretend to straighten it and you can loosen a stone". But he couldn't know she would do that if they never discussed the hairnet at all!

I think he would say "take the poison from the hairnet" discussing how seems excesive.

 

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He was first sent to the Tyrells KNOWING they were disloyal and had supported Renly, his task was to get them to switch sides. Sending him again to check for disloyalty right after they joined but before the wedding even took place would be weird.

Still tho, they have no reason to trust him and he brings nothing to the table. 

 

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It's normal for a maester to wear maester's robes designed to accomodate those. Less common for an old woman to wear a dress like that to her daughter's wedding. How much time does she have to modify her dress, and if she's doing those without Mace in the loop can she risk the person doing the work not blabbing?

She has tailors, could easily ask them to add pouches in her dress, it wouldn't take long. She could also use jewelry with poison herself instead of Sansa, it would just be an easier more uncomplicated plan that requires less people involved, therefore, less chance of being caught.

 

12 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Are those "extra" able to carry out something like this?

Putting a stone in some food? It seems easy enough.

 

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Who?

It's stated in AGOT that he named a lot of people doing the administrative work in KL. We also learn via Tyrion that he's the one paying the wages and naming employees, some of whom don't exist. And he claims he also helped plan the wedding.

It would take little effort for him to place one of his agents as a server.

 

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I was comparing Attila & Honoria to Joffrey & Sansa. Sansa really did want to marry him, so there was no reason to treat her as an "enemy". Joffrey did it because he's a sadist.

There was no need and Joffrey is a sadist, but all I'm saying is that Sansa had no friends or support in KL and no one would do anything to Joff if he did something to her, also a big chunk of the times he tortured her was because of her brother winning battles.

There's little reason to assume the same thing would happen to Margeary, as she has many guards in the city, her family is Joff's prime ally, so they won't battle against him, and her brother is his bodyguard.

 

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If you come to the wrong conclusion, you are fooled, even if you are the person who fooled yourself. As Feynman said, you are the easiest person for you to fool!

Not in the context GRRM was speaking about, he said she wasn't fooled about it being an accident and knew it was a poisoning. Using your way of thinking and as the story stands she was fooled by what happened, bc she thinks Tyrion did the poisoning while it was LF.

 

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True, but with LF far away he's a much less obvious suspect. Tyrion didn't tell his family about LF framing him for the dagger, and he didn't understand enough of LF's fishy bookkeeping to explain what was going on there either.

Yes, but why not be extra careful tho? Not doing it yourself does not mean you aren't culprit, and Tywin knows that. So yes, if Tyrion was the target, LF would care enough to make it look like a choking.

 

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It doesn't have to be Tyrion's pie, it can be any food.

Yes, but there was no assurance that he would eat at that moment, the fact that he ate Tyrion's pie was a coincidence. If Tyrion had eaten his pie, the conflict would have gone the same way, but without Joffrey eating. So, when he choked it would be an obvious poisoning.

 

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Lots of people saw Olenna do that, but nobody who saw it thought anything of it (even Sansa, and even after realizing Dontos had gotten her to wear it because he was expecting this).

Yes, and? LF knew Sansa would remember one person doing that, and Sansa ONLY remembers Olenna doing that.

If LF expected her to be distracted while ANOTHER person we don't know of fiddled with her hairnet WITHOUT her noticing, how would LF be able to guess that Sansa WOULD remember someone doing just that? I can't see any explanation other than that he knew what Olenna was going to do.

Isn't he extraordinarily lucky then that an accident worked out better for him than his actual plan would have. It's almost like he planned it! And if Joffrey's death was a surprise, he's really quickly able to come up with an explanation.

He could have hoped her to say "I don't remember anyone" and then he would seem more capable. Or maybe he was just trying to see how effective his agent was. 

LF being able to come up with a story out of nowhere is quite fitting with him, but it's also not that great of a story, as his motive makes no sense. And most of the story is revealed days after Sansa told him about TQOT

 

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He's DEFINITELY not, he sabotaged their attempt to marry Sansa to Garlan and had Dontos warn Sansa against the Tyrells. Plus he arranged to make Tyrion & Sansa look guilty, when the Tyrells would have benefitted from nobody questioning the death & replacement of Joffrey.

I agree with you, it was just an example of how we don't know his fucking motives.

 

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This doesn't contradict the books. Elio & Linda asked GRRM to confirm because the text hadn't explicitly said which. If your theory was true, why would the app confirm it was the wine AFTER he confirmed to them it was the pie instead?

Maybe he lied to not reveal important information? Revealing the poison to be on the pie changes the whole story, so he has a reason to lie.

 

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Off-topic, but I'm amused you included that, because the original book was explicit that he wasn't.

I was talking about the movie. The book and the movie are different things. How many children did Cersei bore? Three in the books, four in the show.

 

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Who said it ever went into his pocket?

It doesn't matter if it's in his pocket or not, he had the stone for the whole ceremony, while not just carrying his own poison the whole time and avoid involving LF and Sansa?

 

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The Strangler is not something you just buy down at the market, even from a high-end vendor.

She's rich and powerful tho. LF managed to get some, she could. And every Maester of a major house seems to have it, it wouldn't be hard for her to find it.

 

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If she's keeping Mace out of the loop, it's much trickier to do that. As an old widow with an adult son, she really doesn't have much authority of her own.

 She has authority over the maester, she seems to have more authority than even Mace, but even still, she deosn't need his permission to rob the maester, or ask one of her many maester family members.

 

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He does have reasons. The Tyrells know he's making a small deposit in the favor bank with them. They don't know that he acted to frame Tyrion & free Sansa from him in the confusion. And they don't know that destabilizing the regime is a long term project of his. He has repeatedly been able to make the great houses see enemies other than himself, all while he's risen in status.

They blamed Tyrion instead of him, thus they were baffled.

Of course, he didn't want to be a suspect (as he reminds Sansa, he made sure to be far away and with clean hands). Wanting to be a suspect in that assassination would make such little sense there's no point in talking about it.

No one knowing he did it means people ARE confused.

The reasons you list here are not the reasons he gives. He says he killed him to confuse his foes about his intentions, I can't understand how you don't get that, NO ONE THINKS OF LF'S INTENTIONS DIFFERENTLY THAN THEY DID BEFORE. They don't know he killed Joff, so him doing it doesn't baffle them.

"No one knowing he did it means people are confused." So, he kills Joffrey so people don't know he killed Joffrey? Even tho he, in his own words "doesn't have a motive"? 

 

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How so? No one knows if Sansa is even still alive, just like when Arya escaped KL in confusion.

She disappeared at the exact moment and she was already involved in LF's scheme, they should instantly suspect hims.

 

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It wasn't a servant who served Joffrey that wine, it was Tyrion. And it wasn't a servant who gave him that chalice, it was the Tyrells. Imagine LF had a single asset among however many servants. Could he guarantee that person would be the one serving Joffrey?

No, but we know a servant served him food, the pie for example. And yes, he could guarantee him being the one serving Joffrey, it would be just a matter of assigning him to Joff. I work as an event producer (mostly concerts, art galleries, theatre and stuff, but in the past I worked on weddings and such) if there's someone important (like tha king and groom) it's not unusual to have one specific handpicked person serving them.

 

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"Drank deep" doesn't mean "emptying it". Tyrion didn't refill it after that. For an oversized chalice, you wouldn't expect someone to finish it with a single gulp.

You assumed it was empty and got refilled (again) even though the text didn't say so and you used that as a basis for your argument on how the wine couldn't have been poisoned?

I assumed it was empty because Joff asks Tyrion to fill it. It wouldn't be a need to fill it if it wasn't empty. 

[FictionIsntReal]

9 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

look, I see no reason to keep this thing going

And yet you do, even after I pointed out that GRRM confirmed to Elio & Linda it was the wine.

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I do not consider it cannon at all. The text should stand by itself, everything else, even authorial intent, is extra to me.

This is the same text in which LF explains what happened and was able to guess that someone (Olenna, as it turns out) straightened out Sansa's hairnet, which he wouldn't be able to know if he hadn't arranged it with her.

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he has lied many times before

The last time you said that I asked you "when" and you start by reiterating it happened "many" times. If that was true, you would have had plenty of examples.

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he has claim many thinks that then he claimed to be opposite

What?

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I can't remember many examples

Then how can you be so confident that "many" exist?

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one that comes to mind is him saying (at around season 7) that the show is 90% similar to the books, while it clearly isn't

There's no way to even measure a percentage like that so as to say such a characterization is a "lie"

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Olenna confirming it could be a way

You're already rejecting one confession, why not another?.

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another way would be explaining some of the inconsistencies with the story

The ones only in your head? Sansa doesn't see any inconsistencies, even though she could tell Olenna's blase reaction to a potential "kingslayer stew" didn't make sense.

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No, I meant Loras, KG vows can be discarded by the king now.

Loras was brought into the KG as a condition of the marriage alliance. It would make no sense to remove him after that for no reason. He's not nearly as old as Selmy, and he didn't violate his KG oath like Jaime.

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No, he's accused of rebelling against the rightful king, being a traitor to the realm, and maybe even attempted kingslayin and kinslaying, as if his rebelion would have succeeded he would have killed Joff, Myrcella and Tommen, and people love to add extra charges to make enemies seem more horrible. He's considered a horrible criminal, he couldn't be in succession, and the people against him being on the throne would use that as an excuse against the rest.

Once he becomes the most viable candidate, that will all go out the window and none dare call it treason. Henry II's warring against Stephen of Blois & his son Eustace was all forgiven after Eustace died.

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It has some holes, yes

Not just some holes, I say it's basically impossible. You have no way to explain it.

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but I like this holes more than the holes in LF story

Holes that only you see, not anyone in the books (like Sansa, who is hearing and reacting to the story).

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GRRM does make mistakes

I can grant that. What color are Renly's eyes?

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But a whole plot point? a whole scheme that makes little sense?

Only to YOU.

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I think he would say "take the poison from the hairnet" discussing how seems excesive.

Sansa won't be expecting it, so they would have to arrange a way to do it innocously without Sansa getting weird about someone tugging on her hairnet for no reason.

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And he claims he also helped plan the wedding.

He brought the dwarves, but he's not generally in charge of servants. There are positions like steward for that sort of thing, whereas he's more like a Minister of Finance.

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There's little reason to assume the same thing would happen to Margeary, as she has many guards in the city, her family is Joff's prime ally, so they won't battle against him, and her brother is his bodyguard.

Aerys frequently antagonized the Lannisters but also took Jaime on as KG (to antagonize Tywin). Joffrey is compared to the Mad King for his own stupid & sadistic actions. Robert wasn't nearly as nutty as either of them, but he still kept Jaime on as KG while delighting whenever another jouster knocked Jaime off his horse and even hit Cersei in the face when she was complaining about Ned's wife abducting Tyrion. All it takes is one impulsive action for Joffrey to go too far and immediately get killed by Loras (who himself rashly killed two of his comrades in Renly's KG).

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he said she wasn't fooled about it being an accident and knew it was a poisoning

While in your view it was a poisoning AND an accident.

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she was fooled by what happened, bc she thinks Tyrion did the poisoning while it was LF

Correct, she was fooled as to the perpetrator, not as to whether it was an accident.

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Yes, but why not be extra careful tho?

He could be, but it would be a lesser factor to balance.

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Not doing it yourself does not mean you aren't culprit, and Tywin knows that

He has no known motive, in contrast to someone like Cersei or Joffrey (or even Pycelle the poison expert). Making it more obviously look like a poisoning could make them look guiltier, which would further LF's goal of destabilizing the regime.

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He could have hoped her to say "I don't remember anyone" and then he would seem more capable

Why would he say "I will wager you that at some point during the evening someone told you that your hair net was crooked and straightened it for you"? He's clearly expecting to seem more knowledgeable than Sansa expected by knowing something he couldn't have known, and the question involves someone TELLING HER her hairnet is crooked rather than doing so in a way she wouldn't notice/remember. If he thought some agent of his went unnoticed, it wouldn't include the bit about telling, and he would say something like "I'll wager there's a stone missing from your hairnet". If Sansa just said "No, nobody ever said that or did that", his "wager" would be a losing one.

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Maybe he lied to not reveal important information?

Again, you have no examples of outright lying by him. He's been asked a lot of important questions, but he just plays coy and says things like "keep reading". Pie vs wine is not on the order of those big questions.

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It doesn't matter if it's in his pocket or not, he had the stone for the whole ceremony, while not just carrying his own poison the whole time and avoid involving LF and Sansa?

If he's concealing it in his hand, he probably wouldn't want to do that the entire time.

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LF managed to get some

He's shady as hell and Lord of his own (small) house.

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She has authority over the maester, she seems to have more authority than even Mace

Mace is oafish and often mocked by her, but he is still the actual authority.

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He says he killed him to confuse his foes about his intentions, I can't understand how you don't get that

I can't understand how you came up with such a stupid interpretation of his explanation. He never says he wants to be a suspect in the assassination, that would be completely idiotic (Sansa is not an idiot, so she doesn't interpret it that way). Making moves with no known motive PREVENTS anyone from looking at him as a suspect.

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NO ONE THINKS OF LF'S INTENTIONS DIFFERENTLY THAN THEY DID BEFORE

And since people (mistakenly) trusted LF, that works best for him. If they had new information which changed their mind about him, that would be very bad for him!

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They don't know he killed Joff, so him doing it doesn't baffle them.

Not knowing he killed Joff IS baffling them!

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So, he kills Joffrey so people don't know he killed Joffrey?

No, I've noted his actual motives earlier.

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Even tho he, in his own words "doesn't have a motive"?

He has no KNOWN motives. That's why they're not looking at him as a suspect. Just as he wants.

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She disappeared at the exact moment and she was already involved in LF's scheme, they should instantly suspect hims.

Sansa was wearing the hairnet but ignorant that Olenna would be fiddling with it. If the Tyrells guess that Shae was working for LF, that wouldn't be enough to indicate that he removed Sansa. Sansa has long wanted to run away from KL, and Joffrey's death gave her a chance to run away unnoticed.

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I work as an event producer (mostly concerts, art galleries, theatre and stuff, but in the past I worked on weddings and such) if there's someone important (like tha king and groom) it's not unusual to have one specific handpicked person serving them.

Do you normally leave town without any easy way to communicate with the staff before such events? And again, LF was more like a finance minister, not an event producer and he's not in charge of micromanaging servants (rather than coppers).

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I assumed it was empty because Joff asks Tyrion to fill it. It wouldn't be a need to fill it if it wasn't empty.

He only asks him to fill it ONCE. Per the analysis, it still wasn't poisoned after Joffrey first drank from the refilled chalice (and set it on the table), but it was afterward.

[Roswell]

On 9/8/2020 at 11:44 PM, FictionIsntReal said:

If Varys was really a slave with no surname as everyone believes him to be, and his motivations were exactly what he claimed to Kevan, would that flip him to being good?

You mean Vary is not doing this for his own family?  It will make his motivations, if not the means with which he achieves them, moral.  The reason why many of the bad things that happen in this story occur is because of people's devotion to their families.  Love.  It gets in the way of duty.  It got in the way of duty in the case of Jon Snow.  It caused Jaime to push Bran from the tower.  And made Jorah sell people into slavery.  

[FictionIsntReal]

5 hours ago, Roswell said:

You mean Vary is not doing this for his own family?  It will make his motivations, if not the means with which he achieves them, moral.  The reason why many of the bad things that happen in this story occur is because of people's devotion to their families.  Love.  It gets in the way of duty.  It got in the way of duty in the case of Jon Snow.  It caused Jaime to push Bran from the tower.  And made Jorah sell people into slavery.  

A more obvious example: Ned Stark honoring his sister's dying wish and claiming Jon Snow as his son. As a counter-example, we have Pycelle, who has no known family (although unlike Varys he does presumably have kin in Westeros) and explicitly justifies things like assassinating Daenerys with for-the-greater-good reasoning. Pycelle seems like something of a joke early on, but later in the series he seems positively competent compared to Cersei & her picks on the Small Council.

[Back door hodor]

As others have said, it really depends on who you think the "hero" is.

Varys has an agenda, definitely, we dont know for sure what exactly that agenda is though, so its really hard to say.

He could be working explicitly for the people and the realm as he says, he also could be a secret Blackfyre pushing a nepotist agenda, which makes him the same as all the other players in the game. We just don't know.

I think there is more to him than we know personally but im not sure exactly what that mean yet.

Edit....i don't think Euron is the "Nights King" because I don't think there will be one...Euron's best cast scenario is a good death in my opinion 

[Dalinar]

On 9/10/2020 at 3:28 PM, Megorova said:

 

Thus, the Three-Eyed Crow is Quaithe, also she is Shiera Seastar, and her "third eye" is Euron Greyjoy, nicknamed the Crow's Eye.

Is this still ASOIAF? I don't know what books you have read, but it is definitively not the same books I have read. 

[Daeron the Daring]

The main villain are the dead and the others. It is known.

[SeanF]

Among humans, I think he is one of the main villains.  But, he probably thinks he's a good guy.

He did his best to fuel Aerys' paranoia and cruelty.  He and Illyrio were working to orchestrate a war, to put fAegon on the Iron Throne, even as he purported to serve Robert Baratheon.  He uses children as spies and assassins, whose tongues he removes.  

Yet, he justifies it all by his belief that fAegon will be a great ruler.  

[frenin]

9 minutes ago, SeanF said:

Among humans, I think he is one of the main villains.  But, he probably thinks he's a good guy.

He did his best to fuel Aerys' paranoia and cruelty.  He and Illyrio were working to orchestrate a war, to put fAegon on the Iron Throne, even as he purported to serve Robert Baratheon.  He uses children as spies and assassins, whose tongues he removes.  

Yet, he justifies it all by his belief that fAegon will be a great ruler.  

Which is off, does Varys posses the fountain of eternal youth or something?? Because even if Aegon is all that, he may still die young or his children and grandchildren may very well still be dicks, 30 years after Jaeharys 1 died, Westeros saw its most brutal civil war, 2 years after the Dragon died, another civil war erupted.

[SeanF]

36 minutes ago, frenin said:

Which is off, does Varys posses the fountain of eternal youth or something?? Because even if Aegon is all that, he may still die young or his children and grandchildren may very well still be dicks, 30 years after Jaeharys 1 died, Westeros saw its most brutal civil war, 2 years after the Dragon died, another civil war erupted.

I doubt if we've learned the entire motivation for Varys' actions, so far.

[TheLastWolf]

5 hours ago, Dalinar said:

Is this still ASOIAF? I don't know what books you have read, but it is definitively not the same books I have read. 

We'll if everyone agreed with everyone, there wouldn't be a forum.

And @Megorova 's Shiera/Quaithe/3EC argument is pretty convincing once you read it.

I feel pity for Meg, she has repeated the argument a million times since I joined the Forum. So gazillion times before. 

[TheLastWolf]

3 hours ago, HerblYY said:

The main villain are the dead and the others. It is known.

This too is disputable. It has almost become cliche to reveal the bad guys aren't really bad. I'm not talking Cersei bad, but real Sith evil bad.