US Politics- Roger Stoned to Death

[A Prince of Dorne]

34 minutes ago, S John said:

I know it to be true that there must be undecided voters out there, but also - HOW?

How anyone has sat through the last four years and not made up their mind on whether or not they either love what Trump is doing - or want him gone as soon as possible - is tough for me to wrap my head around. I guess we will have to wait and see who wins the catatonic vote in 2020.

Mind boggling. It breaks my brain when I try to figure this out

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

29 minutes ago, SaltyGnosis said:

And yes, Joe Rogan, as in some average dipshit off the streets, literally would be better at running the country than Donald Trump or Joe Biden. Because the average idiot off the street would not kill civilians with drones or steal from the American people or sell missiles to Saudi Arabia and Israel. I don't get what is dumb about that.

It's dumb because you're making a monster assumption without any evidence to back it up. And frankly, Trump is the closest thing we've had to some person off the street and it's been a disaster.

[Gareth]

14 minutes ago, SaltyGnosis said:

Ok you know what, I'm gonna be real to @Fragile Bird and everybody reacting with laugh emojis to the thing about Biden being a rapist. There is a fucking tape of Tara Reid's mother calling in to Larry King with a story about her assault in like, the 90s. It's been authenticated.

I am so fucking disgusted by everyone who was breathing fire after that 'grab them by the pussy' tape came out, and is now trying to sweep this shit with Biden under the rug. Same shit that happened with Clinton, same fucking thing. Americans are fucking sociopathic pigs, I swear to god.

When I was researching candidates in the primary, I did listen to this tape.  This is verbatim what Tara Reid's mom said, "Yes, hello. I wonder what the employee would do if we excluded going to the press in Washington? My daughter just left from there, after working with a prominent senator, and she couldn’t get over her problems at all, and the only thing she could do With him is to go to the press, and chose not to do so out of respect for him."  Her mother may have beat around the bush and not wanting to say her daughter was sexually assaulted.  But the tape does not prove that Biden assaulted her.  Nor does it proves that he didn't.  

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Looks like DoJ is going after Bolton. Let fall campaign's retributions begin! 

[All Cats Are Bad]

40 minutes ago, aceluby said:

And then your solution to this is to let a shock jock podcast host make it less of a spectacle?  Am I following you here?

No, I said he would be better than Fox and CNN. You are not following me, you are letting the fact that I seem to be saying something complimentary about Joe Rogan distract you and are focusing on coming up with a wityty comeback over

Quote

Biden has one unsubstantiated claim against him

Again, there is a video of the victim's mother telling the same story in the 90s.

The #MeToo act was a fun game though. We should all go get matching Alyssa Milano tattoos to commemorate when we all pretending the 2016 protests was a civil rights awakening rather than America's brief flirtation with principle.

35 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

And frankly, Trump is the closest thing we've had to some person off the street and it's been a disaster.

This is so unbelievably stupid I don't know what to do with it. He is a billionaire raised in Manhattan his entire life. If I say anything else I think I'll get banned but I find you calling me the dumb one then saying this...amazing.

Quote

It's dumb because you're making a monster assumption without any evidence to back it up.

As much there as there was for Kavanaugh.

Americans are sociopathic fucking pigs, I swear to god.

[Durckad]

32 minutes ago, argonak said:

But to start with, what qualifications does Joe Rogan have that make him fit to host a debate to help decide the leader of 300 million people?   

He does DMT, duh.

[A Prince of Dorne]

I'm tired of holding Trump's opponents to a higher standard than Trump is held to. I'm not going to waste my time trying to figure out whether an allegation from 30 years ago is true when the other guy has 20 of them and nobody seems to care

[aceluby]

2 minutes ago, SaltyGnosis said:

No, I said he would be better than Fox and CNN. You are not following me, you are letting the fact that I seem to be saying something complimentary distract you and are focusing on coming up with a wityty comeback over

Again, there is a video of the victim's mother telling the same story in the 90s.

The #MeToo act was a fun game though. We should all go get matching Alyssa Milano tattoos to commemorate when we all pretending the 2016 protests was a civil rights awakening rather than America's brief flirtation with principle.

This is so unbelievably stupid I don't know what to do with it. He is a billionaire raised in Manhattan his entire life. If I say anything else I think I'll get banned but I find you calling me the dumb one then saying this...amazing.

As much there as there was for Kavanaugh.

Americans are sociopathic fucking pigs, I swear to god.

But why would Joe Rogan be better than Fox or CNN?  Because reasons?  Makes sense.

That video doesn't say what you want it to say.   Nowhere does she mention rape or assault.

[Fragile Bird]

1 hour ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

So Trudeau took a page from the EU playbook, tariff where it hurts.

Bah, we’ve been doing it for decades, it’s the only thing that the US understands.

And speaking of trade agreements, the US is trying to negotiate a trade agreement with Kenya. Apparently US chemical companies view  Kenya as the road to trade in Africa, particularly trade in plastics. There are almost 350 new chemical plants in the works in the US, representing a plan for oil and gas companies to return to prosperity. The US exported more than a billion pounds of plastic wastes in 2019 for “recycling” to 96  countries including Kenya.  Since China banned the importation of plastic waste in 2018, the US needs more places to export waste to. Exports of plastic waste to Africa quadrupled in 2019.

Kenya is a signatory to a world agreement to eventually stop importing waste plastics. The chemical industry wants any trade agreement to include the the right of the US to export plastic waste to Kenya, all plastic wastes. Because, according to the industry, countries like Kenya need help to recycle plastics, and of course they’d need more plastic waste to recycle, right? 
 

Don’t think that the role of the chemical industry in trade negotiations is exaggerated. The re-negotiation of NAFTA was very acrimonious, and one of the reasons for the acrimony was the US demand that that both Canada and Mexico be restricted in their ability to pass regulations with regard to chemicals. And of course, the US extorted limitations on Canada’s right to export some dairy products to other countries, and the right to refuse to allow Canada to negotiate future trade agreements with China. 

[Ormond]

3 minutes ago, aceluby said:

That video doesn't say what you want it to say.   Nowhere does she mention rape or assault.

And Christine Blasey Ford had four people who signed affidavits specifically mentioning sexual assault, so in no way are the accusations against Biden "as much" backed up as those against Kavanaugh.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/heres-what-the-4-affidavits-supporting-kavanaugh-accuser-christine-blasey-ford-say

[All Cats Are Bad]

Just now, aceluby said:

But why would Joe Rogan be better than Fox or CNN?

I'm saying literally anybody would. That format is better because a neutral moderator is not actively hostile to the truth and has no financial incentives to avoid certain topics. Replace the word Joe Rogan with the word "puppy" in that sweet little mind of yours if you find it less distracting.

Switch it around. What is it you think makes Fox or CNN a better host for the debate than a podcast?

[All Cats Are Bad]

Just now, Ormond said:

And Christine Blasey Ford had four people who signed affidavits specifically mentioning sexual assault, so in no way are the accusations against Biden "as much" backup as those against Kavanaugh.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/heres-what-the-4-affidavits-supporting-kavanaugh-accuser-christine-blasey-ford-say

LOL OH MY GAWD, it verifies the timeline of her accusations in the same way that those emails to the therapist verified the timeline of the Kavanaugh assault. You people are so fucking hysterical honestly. I used to hear all this shit about how Democrats all circled the wagons around Bill Clinton after howling to the heavens about Bush sr. forcing Thomas onto the Supreme Court, and now it's happening again.

I find Trump's Presidency so horrifying for Black and Mexican Americans, or trans people especially. But a part of me, a terrible little monkey part that I hate, does find it a little bit satisfying what Trump's presidency does to the Karen/Wine-mom feminist. I can't help it, I'm just so beyond grossed out by these fucking Americans who are okay bombing the poorest people in the world if it means they protect their wallets and their reproductive freedoms. I'd never vote for him but like, Hillary Rhodam might have won that election. The Democrats created Trump doing shit like this, and this one will come around too.

[aceluby]

2 minutes ago, SaltyGnosis said:

I'm saying literally anybody would. That format is better because a neutral moderator is not actively hostile to the truth and has no financial incentives to avoid certain topics. Replace the word Joe Rogan with the word "puppy" in that sweet little mind of yours if you find it less distracting.

Switch it around. What is it you think makes Fox or CNN a better host for the debate than a podcast?

Both have people who are FAR more qualified to ask policy questions than a puppy, or Joe Rogan, or whoever.  They know policy, they study it, it's their job.  Now if this was a discussion on the merits of martial arts training while intermittent fasting, sure, call Joe Rogan - but to think he's better than everyone at two major news corporations is absolutely laughable.  Which is what is happening.  It's a really dumb idea and you doubling down on it isn't making you look smarter.

[All Cats Are Bad]

Just now, aceluby said:

They know policy, they study it, it's their job.

I guess this is where we disagree. I feel like their job is to keep us informed and appraised of some policy issues, but more realistically it is to steer the conversation away from others. And no, before anyone goes there I'm not talking about aliens or bigfoot, or whatever.

[Ormond]

2 minutes ago, SaltyGnosis said:

LOL OH MY GAWD, it verifies the timeline of her accusations in the same way that those emails to the therapist verified the timeline of the Kavanaugh assault. You people are so fucking hysterical honestly. I used to hear all this shit about how Democrats all circled the wagons around Bill Clinton after howling to the heavens about Bush sr. forcing Thomas onto the Supreme Court, and now it's happening again.

I find Trump's Presidency so horrifying for Black and Mexican Americans, or trans people especially. But a part of me, a terrible little monkey part that I hate, does find it a little bit satisfying what Trump's presidency does to the Karen/Wine-mom feminist. I can't help it, I'm just so beyond grossed out by these fucking Americans who are okay bombing the poorest people in the world if it means they protect their wallets and their reproductive freedoms. I'd never vote for him but like, Hillary Rhodam might have won that election. The Democrats created Trump doing shit like this, and this one will come around too.

Look, it verifies she was having some sort of trouble. It in no way verifies that trouble was sexual assault. I am sorry, but I think you are the one who is being illogical and hysterical here. And personally I really don't feel a lot of loyalty to the Democratic party, and people who have been on this board for years will remember that I was someone who wanted Bill Clinton to be impeached and convicted for sexual misconduct with Monica Lewinsky, and I still think that would have been an appropriate outcome to that situation. So I am definitely circling no wagons for Bill Clinton. 

[Paladin of Ice]

Worrying statements (even by the standards of this administration) have been coming hot and heavy the last few days. (Or at least have been revealed in the last few days.)

Michael Caputo, a Roger Stone protégée and Trump’s politically appointed hatchet man at CDC, publicly accused government scientists of sedition, urged Trump supporters to be ready to put down the armed insurrection that will come after Trump wins, and just made some generally loony toons paranoid comments. (And he confirmed all of these statements. Also note the after Trump wins, not if Trump wins)

Quote

A top communications official for the administration’s coronavirus response urged President Trump’s supporters to prepare for an armed insurrection after a contested election and accused government scientists of “sedition” in a Facebook Live chat that he described in detail to The Washington Post on Monday.

Michael Caputo, assistant secretary for public affairs at the Department of Health and Human Services, which is overseeing the coronavirus response, leveled the accusations and promoted other conspiracy theories in a Facebook Live event first reported by the New York Times. Caputo confirmed the authenticity of the video in comments he made to The Post.

...

Trump installed Caputo in April after weighing whether to fire Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar over a series of damaging stories about Trump’s handling of the pandemic, according to three current and former White House officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe behind-the-scenes discussions. Allies persuaded Trump to not make such a change amid a pandemic, but instead to bring in Caputo, the officials said. (Trump denied reports that he was considering firing Azar at the time.)

Almost immediately, Caputo began exerting control over officials’ public appearances and statements; by early summer, he had extended that scrutiny to scientists. He and an adviser have faced mounting criticism in recent days for interfering with the work of scientists at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, seeking to change, delay or kill weekly scientific reports they thought undermined Trump’s message that the pandemic is under control. Caputo has also sought to wield influence over when government scientists appear on television, telling officials that he approves such bookings.

...

In the Facebook video, Caputo criticizes government career scientists, the media and Democrats, the Times reported and Caputo confirmed. He said he was under attack by the media and that his “mental health has definitely failed."

“I don’t like being alone in Washington,” Caputo said in the video, describing “shadows on the ceiling in my apartment, there alone, shadows are so long.”

Caputo also said the CDC, which is part of HHS, had a “resistance unit” that aimed to undermine Trump. Without offering any evidence, he also accused scientists “deep in the bowels of the CDC” of giving up on science and becoming “political animals.”

They “haven’t gotten out of their sweatpants except for meetings at coffee shops” to plot “how they’re going to attack Donald Trump next,” he said in the video. “There are scientists who work for this government who do not want America to get well, not until after Joe Biden is president.”

He also predicted that Trump would win the election but that Biden, the Democratic presidential nominee, would refuse to concede. “And when Donald Trump refuses to stand down at the inauguration, the shooting will begin,” he warned in the video. “The drills that you’ve seen are nothing. If you carry guns, buy ammunition, ladies and gentlemen, because it’s going to be hard to get.”

Trump meanwhile, was pouring gasoline on a fire by congratulating law enforcement for killing the Portland antifa guy, (ignoring that said antifa guy was claiming self defense and at least one witness says that the police didn’t even attempt to bring him in, they just started shooting) and added “There has to be retribution when you have crime like this”

Quote

During an interview with Jeanine Pirro that aired on Fox News Saturday evening and then during political rallies he held in Nevada on Saturday and Sunday, Trump lauded law enforcement officials for killing antifa supporter Michael Reinoehl. Reinoehl was wanted on suspicion of killing a supporter of a right-wing group called Patriot Prayer named Aaron Danielson during confrontations between a caravan of Trump supporters and counterprotesters in Portland, Oregon, on August 28.

Officers said Reinoehl pulled a gun on them before his fatal September 3 shooting in Lacey, Washington, and two witnesses told the Olympian they saw Reinoehl fire a weapon at officers. But one witness told the Oregonianthat officers opened fire unprompted. (US marshals were present during the raid that killed Reinoehl, but local officials reportedly fired the fatal shots.)

“Officers shot multiple rapid-fire rounds at Reinoehl before issuing a brief ‘stop’ command, quickly followed by more rapid-fire shooting by additional officers,” the eyewitness, an ordained minister named Nathaniel Dingess, said, according to a statement released by his lawyer.

While public knowledge about the circumstances surrounding Reinoehl’s death remains scant, if officers shot Reinoehl without justification, it’d be tantamount to murder. But Trump made abundantly clear that he’s not waiting for the facts to come in before he draws conclusions.

“Now we sent in the US marshals for the killer, the man that killed the young man in the street,” Trump told Judge Jeanine. “Two and a half days went by, and I put out [on Twitter], ‘When are you going to go get him?’ And the US marshals went in to get in, and in a short period of time, they ended in a gunfight. This guy was a violent criminal, and the US marshals killed him. And I’ll tell you something — that’s the way it has to be. There has to be retribution when you have crime like this.”

Insert comparison to Trump’s statements about Kyle Rittenhouse <here>.
 

Meanwhile Woodward reported in an NPR interview that Mattis, Tillerson, and Dan Coats (the key members of the early Trump National Security team) all described Trump as a danger to the country. Furthermore, Trump refused to answer questions about what he’d do if he lost the election.

Quote

KELLY: In the epilogue, you wrote about Mattis, about Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, about Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats - the trio of original senior - the senior national security team, all of whom, in your judgment, were acting in good faith, well-intentioned, trying to answer a call to public service. You say to the reader, just slow down. Think about this for a moment. The top national security leaders thought the president of the United States was a danger to the country. In your decades of reporting on Washington, have you ever encountered that?

WOODWARD: Well, in the case of Nixon, the Congress and the Republican leaders in Congress decided that Nixon was criminal and should not serve and went to him and told him that it was over. And...

KELLY: But I'm talking about senior national security leaders who served this president coming out and saying not just, I don't like him anymore, and not just, I disagreed with this or that policy, but he poses a threat to the security of the country.

WOODWARD: No.

 

Quote

KELLY: Last thing - we are in this moment where, whatever your politics, Americans are scared. Everything feels so unsettled. The future of our democracy, the future of our country feels at stake. And so I guess I'm curious. You, Bob Woodward - how worried are you? Having lived through and having driven a million news cycles, does this feel different?

WOODWARD: You know, there's a lot of worry about what Trump will do - that he'll put troops in the street. And he did...

KELLY: Yeah.

WOODWARD: ...In a very limited way. And there - and I asked him this question. Suppose you lose. What are you going to do in the election? And he said, I don't want to comment on that.

 

[All Cats Are Bad]

11 minutes ago, Ormond said:

Look, it verifies she was having some sort of trouble. It in no way verifies that trouble was sexual assault. I am sorry, but I think you are the one who is being illogical and hysterical here.

Maybe I am, I will admit I'm pretty pissed off atm.

We know that her boss, who was a senator, at the time she was working for Joe Biden, did something to her that was bad enough that her mother was calling Larry King and talking about going to the press. Then years later she comes forward with sexual assault allegations against Joe Biden.

I guess she could be lying. But Trump could also have been joking when he said grab em by the pussy. But he wasn't joking, and Tara Reid isn't lying, and I'm not dumb for pointing that out (but @Tywin et al. might be for calling Trump 'just a guy off the street', I mean I kinda know what you meant but Jesus fuck that's a bad take to have right after calling me stupid).

[DMC]

4 hours ago, Simon Steele said:

PA is lost. People who live there say that Trumpism has become more entrenched, if anything.

Uh, I live here and I definitely don't say that.  While Trump made decisive gains among uneducated whites in 2016, and that is very important in much of PA, he's hardly building upon that demo with Biden as his opponent instead of Hillary.  And Trump plainly lost ground in the suburbs and even exurbs in 2018.  Both of these are national trends and why Rakich said in the 538 article that PA could "decide" the election.  That's not really true - if Biden wins PA he's likely to bank an EC lead where one could argue a number of states were "decisive."  But it is true that more than any other state, whichever candidate wins PA is very likely to win the election.

Anyway, Pittsburgh is enjoying a renaissance as the population decrease of the past 60 years has finally stabilized and the people coming in now favor Biden (and Democrats generally) as educated whites and minorities.  Biden will need them, and need to run up the score in Philly and its suburbs, but that looks a lot more promising than 2016 did.

5 hours ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Oh, and the reason the model is this way is because it projects into the future and assumes states like NC (and maybe FL) will revert to Trump as the election approaches, I believe.

Well, not to Trump, at least yet - 538's model still has Biden winning both FL and NC.  But yes, 538's model takes partisan history into account, which is why FL, NC, and Arizona are always going to have a depressed expected vote share for Biden compared to PA.  Plus, of course, in terms of FL and NC the polling averages are simply much closer.

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

It's just there's no reason to say that because Clinton was up by 3-5 points in the midwestern states in 2016 means Biden isn't likely to win with a 3-5 point lead this time.  A lead of that scale wins ~70% of the time, and that applies to Biden too. 

Let's also remember that the polls for Clinton rapidly tightened up in the last week of the contest, and I think we all know the reason why.  RCP's final polling average for PA the day before the election was only Clinton +2.1.

3 hours ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Oh, and by the way, Clinton got 'only' 89% of the AA vote compared to Obama's 96, and even that slight difference was enough to tilt it away from her because it was so close. I dont think (but I could be wrong) that Biden would underperform her but I'm sure of nothing.

Biden's margins are likely going to be closer to Clinton's than Obama's, but the other important aspect of the AA vote is the drop in turnout - from 13% of the PA electorate in 2012 to 10% in 2016.  Boosting turnout is just as important as the margins, and much easier to focus on because I'm not sure how you persuade that last ten percent of AA voters at this point.

2 hours ago, Mexal said:

How is he doing among old white men compared to Clinton? Wondering if there is some offset on AA/hispanic vote in the white vote.

Well, according to the latest Marist poll, Biden and Trump are tied 49/49 among 65+ voters in PA.  That may not seem great, but Clinton lost the age group 54/44.  One would assume, then, he's doing better with old white men.  They don't have crosstabs on age, but the interesting one Marist does have is white/gender/education.

Men/White/Non-College Trump is up 67/31 compared to 71/26 in 2016.  Men/White/College Biden is up 57/40 whereas Trump won the demo 56/39 in 2016.  That's a huge fucking shift.  Women/White/Non-College Trump is up 54/44, while he won them 58/38 in 2016.  Women/White/College Biden is up 65/32 compared to Clinton winning them 55/41. 

So, yeah, I think it's fair to say Biden is doing better among white people in Pennsylvania across the board.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

23 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Bah, we’ve been doing it for decades, it’s the only thing that the US understands.

And speaking of trade agreements, the US is trying to negotiate a trade agreement with Kenya. Apparently US chemical companies view  Kenya as the road to trade in Africa, particularly trade in plastics. There are almost 350 new chemical plants in the works in the US, representing a plan for oil and gas companies to return to prosperity. The US exported more than a billion pounds of plastic wastes in 2019 for “recycling” to 96  countries including Kenya.  Since China banned the importation of plastic waste in 2018, the US needs more places to export waste to. Exports of plastic waste to Africa quadrupled in 2019.

Kenya is a signatory to a world agreement to eventually stop importing waste plastics. The chemical industry wants any trade agreement to include the the right of the US to export plastic waste to Kenya, all plastic wastes. Because, according to the industry, countries like Kenya need help to recycle plastics, and of course they’d need more plastic waste to recycle, right? 
 

Don’t think that the role of the chemical industry in trade negotiations is exaggerated. The re-negotiation of NAFTA was very acrimonious, and one of the reasons for the acrimony was the US demand that that both Canada and Mexico be restricted in their ability to pass regulations with regard to chemicals. And of course, the US extorted limitations on Canada’s right to export some dairy products to other countries, and the right to refuse to allow Canada to negotiate future trade agreements with China. 

Haven't they (US industries) not done enough damage there already?

They are enjoying the benefits of the murica's opioid crisis with an even less working health system. Ofc Chinese and Indian generic drugs of the US originals, with higher dosages are right in there for the fun. If it didn't sound so silly, you could really call it US opioid crisis on steroids in Africa.

[Mexal]

4 minutes ago, DMC said:

Well, according to the latest Marist poll, Biden and Trump are tied 49/49 among 65+ voters in PA.  That may not seem great, but Clinton lost the age group 54/44.  One would assume, then, he's doing better with old white men.  They don't have crosstabs on age, but the interesting one Marist does have is white/gender/education.

Men/White/Non-College Trump is up 67/31 compared to 71/26 in 2016.  Men/White/College Biden is up 57/40 whereas Trump won the demo 56/39 in 2016.  That's a huge fucking shift.  Women/White/Non-College Trump is up 54/44, while he won them 58/38 in 2016.  Women/White/College Biden is up 65/32 compared to Clinton winning them 55/41. 

So, yeah, I think it's fair to say Biden is doing better among white people in Pennsylvania across the board.

Thanks. That's the kind of information I was curious about. Lots of bed wetting over certain demographics where Biden is doing worse in but not a ton of talk about the demographics where he's doing better in, especially when those demographics make up a larger portion of the electorate.