Fez Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, DMC said: Much different circumstances. Delay wanted to redraw a map that was made by a three-judge federal panel. If the LRB ends up drawing the first map, there's little reason to redraw it and go through the whole process of getting bogged down in court battles. Incumbents aren't gonna be thrilled with that uncertainty. The commission draws the state legislative districts. I'm not saying those would get redrawn, I'm sure that'll be a just fine gerrymander. I'm saying they'd redraw the court-created congressional districts, which courts will create because the state legislature deadlocks (assuming Democrats win the state house). My understanding is that the commission only does state districts, not congress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 In other news, this is kinda weird... I wonder if Roberts didn't feel safe with WH COVID procedures or if the WH didn't invite him. Although, in either case, I also wonder if Roberts will need to privately administer the oath again to her? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 5 minutes ago, Fez said: The commission draws the state legislative districts. I'm not saying those would get redrawn, I'm sure that'll be a just fine gerrymander. I'm saying they'd redraw the court-created congressional districts, which courts will create because the state legislature deadlocks (assuming Democrats win the state house). My understanding is that the commission only does state districts, not congress. Ah, misunderstanding then. Yes, the LRB only has jurisdiction over state districts. Since you mentioned them I assumed that's what you were referring to, my bad. Anyway, I agree, if the US congressional districts end up being court-created, then yeah, gotta figure the GOP will do the same thing as DeLay did if they take back the trifecta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IheartIheartTesla Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 To expand on my previous post, the Ras poll of +1 Trump did drop the 538 average to 8.7, but it quickly rebounded back to 9.4 now because of some favorable polls to Biden. Same will happen in PA for the Insider Advantage poll (also, 400 LV means it isnt weighed as heavily) Just occurred to me that Republican pollsters could easily game polls by simply excluding people who have already voted. Dont know if a careful reading of crosstabs can uncover that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ormond Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 12 minutes ago, Fez said: In other news, this is kinda weird... I wonder if Roberts didn't feel safe with WH COVID procedures or if the WH didn't invite him. Although, in either case, I also wonder if Roberts will need to privately administer the oath again to her? It doesn't seem to me that the law relating to this specifies who must administer the oath, so I don't see why she'd have to do it again. https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/28/453 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 7 minutes ago, Ormond said: It doesn't seem to me that the law relating to this specifies who must administer the oath, so I don't see why she'd have to do it again. Yeah wouldn't be surprised if she just preferred to have Thomas administer her oath. For some reason I was looking at VP oaths a couple weeks ago. Biden had Stevens in 2009 and Sotomayor in 2013 administer his. Pence had Thomas do it, and Cheney actually had Dennis Hastert do it in 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JGP Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 1 hour ago, Fez said: In other news, this is kinda weird... I wonder if Roberts didn't feel safe with WH COVID procedures or if the WH didn't invite him. Although, in either case, I also wonder if Roberts will need to privately administer the oath again to her? All those young Black people Kush thinks are onboard will be further swayed by the transparent optics, I'm sure lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Ipsos has Biden +5 in PA and +9 in WI. Biden is up one point in both states since the same poll two weeks ago. I feel like that is just an indication of where the race is and how jittery everyone is that this feels like a middling result. I want Biden to be ahead by 10+ in every poll! (If Biden were actually ahead by 10 in every swing state, I'm sure I'd be saying "I want Biden to be ahead by 15 in every poll!") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 55 minutes ago, Ormond said: It doesn't seem to me that the law relating to this specifies who must administer the oath, so I don't see why she'd have to do it again. https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/28/453 Might not any law about it, but still seems odd. Per the SCOTUS website https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/oath/oathsofoffice.aspx the oaths of office are always administered by the Chief Justice or the senior Associate Justice (who does it for an incoming chief justice). That does happen to be Thomas. But everyone on the court currently had at least one of their two oaths administered by the Chief Justice (except Roberts himself). Even Thomas, who swore the constitutional oath in a public ceremony administered by Byron White, had William Rehnquist administer the judicial oath in a courthouse conference room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 11 minutes ago, Fez said: Might not any law about it, but still seems odd. It's certainly a break in tradition, yes. Not too surprised Barrett is breaking tradition. Especially because it may be a message that Roberts is no longer invited to the secret fascist club meetings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ran Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Also, a little earlier Silver remarked that post-debate polling has expanded Biden's lead by 0.5... but if you were to drop Insider Advantage's PA poll and Rasmussen's national poll (he's clearly starting to get annoyed by the latter, in particular, I think due to some of their cross tab data seeming indefensible; I suspect they too will get downgraded after this election), it'd be 1.5. ETA: Oh, and now this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ran said: I suspect they too will get downgraded after this election Anyone remember if Silver downgraded Rasmussen after the midterms - when they were the least accurate firm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 I probably should have asked this a long time ago, but what exactly is a "generic ballot". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Zog Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Just now, Fragile Bird said: I probably should have asked this a long time ago, but what exactly is a "generic ballot". I believe it's asking (without naming names) whether someone intends to vote for a Democrat or a Republican for Congress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ran Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 10 minutes ago, DMC said: Anyone remember if Silver downgraded Rasmussen after the midterms - when they were the least accurate firm? Checked Archive.org and no, no changes -- it's been C+ rated since before the 2016 election, and retained that all the way to present. I feel like Nate singling them out may suggest that will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varysblackfyre321 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Just now, Ran said: Checked Archive.org and no, no changes -- it's been C+ rated since before the 2016 election, and retained that all the way to present. I feel like Nate singling them out may suggest that will change. I would not like that. They’re conservative but they’re not flat out fraudulent like Traf seemed to be and certainly less bad then survey monkey which silver includes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ran Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said: I would not like that. They’re conservative but they’re not flat out fraudulent like Traf seemed to be and certainly less bad then survey monkey which silver includes. The rating is based on metrics regarding trustworthiness, methodology, etc. It seems that Rasmussen has started becoming less trustworthy -- I think the cross tabs on their latest poll showed some of the similar weirdness you saw in Trafalgar's much more obviously gamed polls -- for whatever reason, and their rating should reflect that unless they turn out to be more accurate than they seem to be. SurveyMonkey has an extremely low rating and thus is given very low weighting in the averages. All that will happen if Rasmussen is downgraded is that its weighting in the averages will be dropped marginally. ETA: Here's silver contemplating future projection modelling with new categories to try and better capture what pollsters are doing with their polls Basically, right now, Rasmussen is not being classified as a partisan poll, which is obviously wrong and which Silver is thinking should probably be corrected in the future after this election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IheartIheartTesla Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Like I said, if you just look at people who have not yet voted (about 60% of the electorate), you can easily craft polls that show Trump ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 HEY GUYS DONT WORRY YOU SHOULD RESPECT THE SCOTUS DECISIONS AND PEOPLE BECAUSE THAT ONE TIME THEY DIDNT SUCK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 14 minutes ago, Killjoybear said: HEY GUYS DONT WORRY YOU SHOULD RESPECT THE SCOTUS DECISIONS AND PEOPLE BECAUSE THAT ONE TIME THEY DIDNT SUCK Don't think anyone here is under any illusions of what this court will do with no swing votes needed to maintain court appearances. The US is going back to a shittier time. ETA: If you haven't voted, go vote. There will almost certainly be a ruling by the SCOTUS to stop counting ballots that haven't been counted by midnight on Nov 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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