US Politics 47 - Biden Time (To Be Litigious)

[Lollygag]

52 minutes ago, Simon Steele said:

Your source says nothing about hostile takeovers, or Sanders who you said advocated for that. AOC said what I already mentioned: she and Biden wouldn't be in the same party in another country. AOC is the Democrat as much as Biden. She always has been. I really can't follow your point. 

And we've argued about the "literal" socialist that is Bernie Sanders before--and you ignore about 90 percent of why that's not true.

My source wasn't for hostile takeovers. Go a few pages back for that.

AOC is a democratic socialist. Biden is a democrat. Really? If they're the same thing, save everyone the grief and give up the socialist label.

I'm not discussing what a socialist is or isn't because that's nailing jello to a tree. That's what he calls himself and what Republicans successfully fear monger off of.

 

[Sci-2]

6 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Yup, as I said, there are a lot of conservative black voters. I don’t know how many times over the years I’ve seen stories about young black people moving back to the south and not knowing how to deal with Thee question: where do you go to church?

Fuck off I’m an atheist doesn’t go over well...

I don't know if they are explicitly conservative, maybe socially conservative. Religion might be a non-factor, I mean Omar is obviously religious.

It's more that as much as the Left wants to frame the Democratic party as some corrupt collection of rich straight white male fat cats the reality is there are lots of PoC that are happy to be Dems or at least vote Dem. And a good chunk of those Dems are the very black voters that got Biden through the primary and then over the finish line.

Why some people look askance when some Leftists makes it seem criticisms of the Squad are also criticism by "establishment Dems" of Abrams or even the BLM movement.

 

[Myshkin]

2 minutes ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

You have no power over me.

My Dodgers and Lakers are World Champions, I have power over everybody!

[Tywin et al.]

7 minutes ago, Myshkin said:

Don’t listen to him. I love you.

True love is when you can look your partner in the eye in the shower, hand them a razor blade, and they know you want them to shave that space you just can't get on your own. And both people are cool with it.

[Tywin et al.]

Just now, Myshkin said:

My Dodgers and Lakers are World Champions, I have power over everybody!

Clearly not over the Chargers.....

[Myshkin]

4 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

My source wasn't for hostile takeovers. Go a few pages back for that.

AOC is a democratic socialist. Biden is a democrat. Really? If they're the same thing, save everyone the grief and give up the socialist label.

I'm not discussing what a socialist is or isn't because that's nailing jello to a tree. That's what he calls himself and what Republicans successfully fear monger off of.

 

Particularly since, you know, they’re not actually socialists. I remain convinced that Bernie confused Social Democrat with Democratic Socialist, and then got in too deep to make the correction.

[Rippounet]

5 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

There's a lot of reason especially as that"s how the polling is going and how voters are reporting their decisions.

Well, what polls are we talking about? Exit polls? Do we have any that specifically looked at the impact of the "threat" of socialism on voters?

5 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

This article makes the disclaimer that it may take months before we really understand what happened, but white women polled as going to Biden, but it seems at the last minute went back to Trump who's big points were defund the police/law and order, the old idea that Dems are bad with the economy and socialism/communists/radical left. Republicans think campaigning against socialism works and it's hard to argue with their results.

That article does not make any of the links you do. In fact, if I read it right, it merely says Biden didn't do better with women than Hillary.

It does say this:

Quote

Initial exit polls are an imperfect way to assess the behavior of the electorate. The information is gathered in voluntary interviews as voters leave polling places. In 2020, when many voted early or by mail due to the COVID-19 pandemic, more telephone polls than usual were done of absentee voters. Exit polls are nevertheless the best first look at how voters behaved in an election.

At best your theory may be a bit premature. But that's being very generous, assuming you have any kind of data to support it, which I doubt.

I found this:

Quote

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/14/business/socialist-biden-trump.html

Why Trump’s Efforts to Paint Biden as a Socialist Are Not Working

A wide range of polls, including some conducted for nonpartisan media outlets and for conservative and liberal interest groups, shows that Mr. Trump has so far been unsuccessful in lashing Mr. Biden to policy proposals like Medicare for All, the Green New Deal and a federal tax on the net worth of high-wealth Americans, all of which Democratic voters and leaders have increasingly embraced in recent years, but which Mr. Biden has stopped short of adopting in his platform.

Evidence also suggests the socialist label does not necessarily carry as much negative weight as Mr. Trump assumed. When pollsters ask Mr. Biden’s critics to name their concerns about him, “socialism” ranks low on the list.

“It’s a word that people bring up more now. It doesn’t mean that it has an impact,” said Margie Omero, a principal at the Democratic polling firm GBAO, which has polled for progressive groups this year but is not working for Mr. Biden’s campaign. “If Trump’s attacks worked, he would be doing better. But he’s not.”

Still, Mr. Trump and his campaign appear to see the issue as a potential winner, particularly among Latino voters who came to the United States from Latin American countries that were governed by socialist or communist rulers. Mr. Trump’s son Donald Trump Jr. led a “Fighters Against Socialism” bus tour in Florida last weekend.

 

So to prove your theory you need to show how many latino votes could have been lost because of socialism. But that would be inaccurate, because a better question may be how many more votes did Trump win because of it, unless you can prove that these latino votes could have gone to Biden (tough).
Based on this you could then attempt to speculate as to whether Biden might have won, say, Florida without this issue.
You might quickly encounter a serious problem though: that many Cuban-Americans would be at least as much critical of Biden for the Obama administration's stance on Cuba and China, than any association with Bernie, AOC, BLM or "defund the police." So even if you can show it is something of a vote-loser, you'll find it difficult to show that there is a way for Democrats to conclusively distance themselves from socialism.

Plus, you also need to factor in the votes that your strategy may lose on the left.

Quote

 

https://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/287459/public-opinion-review-americans-word-socialism.aspx

Gallup most recently found that 39% of Americans have a positive opinion of socialism, compared with 57% who have a negative opinion. Pew Research's most recent survey showed 55% with a negative opinion of socialism, and an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll showed a 19% positive/53% negative split. A Monmouth poll found that 57% of Americans believe socialism is not compatible with American values.

These net-negative views of socialism seem to be quite stable. Gallup asked Americans to evaluate the term five times between 2010 and 2019; positive responses remained within a narrow range of 35% to 39% across the nine-year span.

[...]

One of the defining characteristics of our age is political polarization. Attitudes toward socialism are no exception to this phenomenon. We (and other researchers) find a wide gulf in the views of Democrats and Republicans about socialism, with 65% of Democrats in Gallup's latest update saying they have a favorable view, contrasted sharply with 9% of Republicans and 41% of independents.

The data also show significant differences by generation. A recent Gallup analysis showed that 49% of millennials and Gen Zers have a positive view of socialism, contrasted with 39% of Gen Xers and a still lower 32% of baby boomers and traditionalists (those aged 55 and older).

 

So the problem you have here, is that while socialism is certainly unpopular in the US, pushing back against socialism might nonetheless make you lose votes.

Do you think you can prove that it is worth it?

[Myshkin]

3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Clearly not over the Chargers.....

Who? You talking about them boys from San Diego? Rams 4 Life! Jim Everett is a Golden god!

[The Anti-Targ]

 

4 minutes ago, Myshkin said:

Particularly since, you know, they’re not actually socialists. I remain convinced that Bernie confused Social Democrat with Democratic Socialist, and then got in too deep to make the correction.

I preferred the term justice Democrat over democratic socialist, or socialist for the left-wing of the Democratic party. It is a slogan more people can get behind without having to get over the socialism phobia and no one can argue against wanting justice (they just argue about what it is).

[Tywin et al.]

2 minutes ago, Myshkin said:

Who? You talking about them boys from San Diego? Rams 4 Life! Jim Everett is a Golden god!

Oh shit. Bipartisanship time! @mcbigski:

 

[DMC]

3 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

no one can argue against wanting justice

Guilty people can.  And you will find we are strong!

[Myshkin]

4 minutes ago, DMC said:

Guilty people can.  And you will find we are strong!

Spoken like a true Yankees fan.

[The Anti-Targ]

Interesting look at demographics. Whites generally moved away from Trump though still majority voted for him. Racial minorities generally moved towards trump, but still a big majority voted for Biden. The only demographics to cross the were incomes: $50-100K income bracket went from Trump to Biden; $100K+ income bracket went from Hillary to Trump. White College educated males almost went 50/50 but still slightly favoured Trump. But the complication here is that this is exit poll information and with mail in voting in a lot of places being very high, and skewing heavily to Biden it is really hard to know if these 2020 demographic shifts compared to 2016 are real.

Candace Owen may have achieved a very small Blexit, but she's going to have to try a lot lot harder for 2024.

So, the question is, can Biden's win actually be credited more to white voters who shifted left, because had they not the minority voters who shifted slightly right could have given Trump the win. Are we going to get post election surveys that will give us a better read out on demographics than the exit polls did? Or are the flawed exit polls going to be the only demographics we get?

[Guest]

Oh, are we playing "everything is the left's fault" again? Oh goody! 

[A True Kaniggit]

2 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

Oh, are we playing "everything is the left's fault" again? Oh goody! 

It's always the left's fault. They're wrong.

If they weren't left, then they'd be right.

Ba dum tsssss.

[Myshkin]

1 minute ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

It’s from a movie

Never heard of it. But I’ll tell you this, everything I’ve done, I’ve done for you. I move the stars for no one.

[DMC]

31 minutes ago, Myshkin said:

Spoken like a true Yankees fan.

Surely just as the Democratic party is a big tent wherein "leftists" and "moderates" can come together for a higher purpose, Yankee and Dodger fans can unite as big market teams keeping our boot on the neck of penniless upstarts like those degenerates from Tampa.

[Varysblackfyre321]

33 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Interesting look at demographics. Whites generally moved away from Trump though still majority voted for him. Racial minorities generally moved towards trump, but still a big majority voted for Biden. The only demographics to cross the were incomes: $50-100K income bracket went from Trump to Biden; $100K+ income bracket went from Hillary to Trump. White College educated males almost went 50/50 but still slightly favoured Trump. But the complication here is that this is exit poll information and with mail in voting in a lot of places being very high, and skewing heavily to Biden it is really hard to know if these 2020 demographic shifts compared to 2016 are real.

Candace Owen may have achieved a very small Blexit, but she's going to have to try a lot lot harder for 2024.

So, the question is, can Biden's win actually be credited more to white voters who shifted left, because had they not the minority voters who shifted slightly right could have given Trump the win. Are we going to get post election surveys that will give us a better read out on demographics than the exit polls did? Or are the flawed exit polls going to be the only demographics we get?

I have to ask; Did racial minorities move to Trump, or did conservative minorities just come home?

Exit polls(unreliable that may be) showed him getting 12 percent of blacks, but that’s not substantially better than say Bush who got 10-11 percent.

And we know Biden’s supporters voted by mail this year.

I can imagine him doing better than he did last time, just as about as good any republican outside Florida in regards to Cubans.

 

[Centrist Simon Steele]

1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I’m a long damn way from “rich”.  I drive uber to make ends meet and end up working somewhere in the range of 60-70 hours a week.  I assure you, I pay taxes.  

I will ask again.  What rightward leaning policies are being advocated for by any Democratic Representatives, or Senators?

But I never accused you of being rich. I acknowledged you were a Republican (and a traditional one at that, not the new style). 

1 hour ago, Lollygag said:

My source wasn't for hostile takeovers. Go a few pages back for that.

AOC is a democratic socialist. Biden is a democrat. Really? If they're the same thing, save everyone the grief and give up the socialist label.

I'm not discussing what a socialist is or isn't because that's nailing jello to a tree. That's what he calls himself and what Republicans successfully fear monger off of.

 

I don't see anything. Here's AOC's Wiki page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexandria_Ocasio-Cortez

She's a democrat. You're the one who is trying to say she wants to destroy or takeover the party or whatever. Because she's a democrat but doesn't fit your criteria of democrat, I can apply that same logic to Biden and say he's not one. See how simple that is? 

And Republicans have successfully fear mongered off socialism for 90 years (as I pointed out), so your protestations ring pretty hollow.

[Lollygag]

 5 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

Well, what polls are we talking about? Exit polls? Do we have any that specifically looked at the impact of the "threat" of socialism on voters?

I assume the standard info they work off of and also what they're being told. If you want to quantify and qualify that, that's another matter and as this is fear-based and rooted deep in US culture and history and voting reasons are complex, I'm not sure that data you're asking for is available. Again, it's a favorite of the Republicans, and yo, it works.

10 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

That article does not make any of the links you do. In fact, if I read it right, it merely says Biden didn't do better with women than Hillary.

It does say this:

It doesn't and I said as much as the article says it's too early. But we know how Trump campaigned and how Republicans generally campaign. Do the math.

One reason that Trump didn't want to run against Biden is that it's so difficult to rebrand a known entity with that much track record. That Biden is really a secret socialist doesn't sell, but that he's mentally weak, senile and the socialists are scary bully strongmen who don't allow dissent and are really in control of the Dems plays off the US's socialism takeover fear and it works sometimes. To what amount, who knows. But as I said, you only peel off a bit here, a bit there, and of course, socialism fear isn't your only game.

Also, the role of the socialism demonization is not understood well. Maybe it's my (incorrect) impression, but I tend to see socialists (not progressives) de-emphasize or deny the influence of history, culture, demographic, urban/suburban/rural and general conscious and unconscious psychology on voting choices in favor of reaction off a checklist of issues. It's not just about any given issue checklist. It's about lizard brain fear appeals especially with the center and right, and especially in closed communities (rural folks, black folks, some latin communities, etc) who are naturally skeptical of outsiders not being what they appear, so the secret anyone or secretly controlled is a thing in itself.

20 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

So the problem you have here, is that while socialism is certainly unpopular in the US, pushing back against socialism might nonetheless make you lose votes.

Do you think you can prove that it is worth it?

I said I'm not making that point. I think the best strategy is to let folks campaign to and vote their districts and the leadership needs to be clear that they will be allowed to do so. Not an instant solution as it's a trust issue and will take time to earn. I admit bias here as I hate political parties in principle but I've seen some success in this form of campaigning for moderate Dems.

Socialism's behavior right now is making a push, a movement, a revolution, is authoritarian and that's *HUGE* in the pushback to it and the paranoia around it. I'm not sure the centrists are articulating this well, but if asked, I'd guess they'd say the perceived aggression is more of a problem than just a few rando socialists popping up. Folks link it with authoritarianism and when the complaints come up, the socialist ignore that which only makes people more suspicious given the behavior.

Maybe this is the cultural difference (you're French if I recall?) but I'm from a very conservative area and asking for data about socialism being controversial and unwinnable in most areas feels like asking for data confirming the sun rose today.