Football: Still in December

[A Horse Named Stranger]

11 hours ago, Iskaral Pust said:

BM have no recent pedigree in the CL, and finished a distant fourth in the Bundesliga last season after falling away badly in the second half.

Yeah, but that's down to the power structure of the Bundesliga atm.

Bayern, then Dortmund and Leipzig are good bit ahead of the pack. Altho you can see those teams are running on empty right now. With Dortmund drawing against way weaker teams, Bayern really just hanging in there to beat teams like Stuttgart, and being on the ropes against Leipzig, who had in turn had to make a decission on whether to push things and be more knackered before their final game against Man United, or grdugingly accept that Bayern escaped. And like I said, Bayern were perfectly fine with the draw and didn't want to push their luck. Anyway, I got sidetracked a bit.

Bayern, Dortmund, Leipzig are ahead of the pack. EPL shouldn't look different, over the course of the season with Liverpool, City and Chelsea running a fair bit ahead of the competition. The battle for fourth in the Bundesliga last season was a real contest, the teams Gladbach beat out for that are no weakies by any stretch. Leverkusen (who find themselves on second right now, despite parting ways with Volland and Havertz) and Hoffenheim. Both of them also convincingly topped their EL groups with 15 and 16 points respectively. Only Arsenal managed to get the perfect 18 points in their group. Bottom line is, Gladbach are actually a pretty good team (especially with Plea and Thuram as their star players). Truth be told, I also thought Real and Inter would advance from that group. But I didn't expect Donezk or Gladbach to just roll over. Gladbach will probably get picked off against one of the bigger clubs next round, but any team that draws them, should take it seriously.

As for United, it was more difficult to advance from that group. However, losing that game to Istanbul was really super embarassing and should be inexcusable. When you start that group with wins over Leipzig and Paris, you are supposed to advance. They even were a bit fortunate with the schedule (as mentioned above, Leipzig had played a tough game against Bayern on Saturday, before facing off against United in that must win game). I could bang on about the fees that went into that squad and the return of invest on the pitch. But i think, that has been discussed ad nauseam on any given football forum.

[Soylent Brown]

The Pogba transfer rumours are back on, with Juventus of course mentioned, but even with the latest talk from Pogba and his agent, I'd still be surprised if he left at the moment.

His stock is low right now, but United will still surely want to get a decent amount for him - will anyone be willing to offer enough money?

 

[Corvinus85]

5 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Bayern, Dortmund, Leipzig are ahead of the pack. EPL shouldn't look different, over the course of the season with Liverpool, City and Chelsea running a fair bit ahead of the competition.

You don't think Spurs will keep up? At least late in the season.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

1 hour ago, Corvinus85 said:

You don't think Spurs will keep up? At least late in the season.

No. I don't think their squad is deep enough, and Mourinho being Mourinho, there's fair chance that he will run at least one of his key players into the ground, I am not saying it's gonna be Kane (it is).

[Consigliere]

2 hours ago, Soylent Brown said:

His stock is low right now, but United will still surely want to get a decent amount for him - will anyone be willing to offer enough money?

Doubtful. Pogba's contract runs out in 2022 as well so that lowers the price. IMO, if Juve offers anywhere in the region of €40-60m either in January or at the end of the season then we should absolutely jump on it. There's no point holding out for a higher fee that we are never going to get for a player who's made it as clear as he possibly can that he has no intention of signing an extension and is desperate to leave. Of course United has the handicap of having the chuckle brothers in charge of our transfers so who the fuck knows what those two idiots will do.

[Iskaral Pust]

2 hours ago, Soylent Brown said:

The Pogba transfer rumours are back on, with Juventus of course mentioned, but even with the latest talk from Pogba and his agent, I'd still be surprised if he left at the moment.

His stock is low right now, but United will still surely want to get a decent amount for him - will anyone be willing to offer enough money?

 

I think his agent said he definitely won’t renew his contract.  That means he’ll be sold next summer at the latest and United just lost a lot of bargaining power.  Transfer fees are depressed, Pogba’s form doesn’t look too hot, and several of the big clubs are at an uncertain point (will Zidane be given money to sign Pogba in January?  Maybe as a last roll of the dice, or maybe they cut off funding until they know if he’ll be keeping his job).

I expect that Mbappe and Haaland will be the big money transfers or renewals next summer.  It’s possible that some big money moves could create a second-order opportunity for Pogba, e.g. at PSG, but I doubt United will be dictating the price. 

Juve have a pattern recently of maximizing contract leverage to get players cheap, e.g. Can and Ramsey, and then try to flip them at a profit if they don’t work out.  But no takers for Ramsey yet. 

[Soylent Brown]

The problem Juventus have is they sign all of these dudes on frees and instead given them monster wages, so none of the buggers want to leave.

Haaland won't be going anywhere for another year yet, I don't think, and neither will Mbappe - I expect he'll have to run his contract down if he wants to move.

Pogba has lots of ability, but Fernandes has come in to United, at a reasonable price, and shown what a genuinely good midfielder can do. Who can afford (in any sense of the word) to have a big money player who blows so hot and cold?

[Iskaral Pust]

1 hour ago, Soylent Brown said:

The problem Juventus have is they sign all of these dudes on frees and instead given them monster wages, so none of the buggers want to leave.

Haaland won't be going anywhere for another year yet, I don't think, and neither will Mbappe - I expect he'll have to run his contract down if he wants to move.

Pogba has lots of ability, but Fernandes has come in to United, at a reasonable price, and shown what a genuinely good midfielder can do. Who can afford (in any sense of the word) to have a big money player who blows so hot and cold?

Fernandes has been the real Pogba-killer. He does more, does it better and more consistently, and looks like a genuine leader for the team.  There may be problems downstream that he has very high standards and will get disillusioned with OGS and some of his teammates, but in the meantime he has made Pogba largely redundant. 

I think Mbappe is in a similar contract situation in that he is refusing to renew and the contract ends in summer 2022, so the expectation is PSG will push to sell him next summer.  He can resist, of course, and see out his final year at PSG — which isn’t a huge problem for him at his age and still winning titles and contending in the CL — but he does seem a bit itchy to move on to a new challenge and push himself.  He decided very early not to renew.  And he’ll get enormous wages either way.  I’m not sure his only concern is to maximize wages, which reduces his options, maybe disrupts the team and their wage structure, etc.  I think he wants to win big things and show he can do it outside a one-club league, but probably doesn’t want to be another Neymar within his new club.

[Consigliere]

Going by various reports, it does appear that Mbappe and Haaland are going to be priority targets for Real Madrid. Mbappe will have 1 year remaining on his contract at the end of this season and it doesn't look like he's interested in renewing. I think Real will make a move for him at the end of the season and Haaland in 2022 when his release clause becomes active. A possible obstacle for a Haaland transfer to Real is that Perez has a pretty low opinion of Raiola who will be looking for a big payday for himself. As far as Pogba goes, I think that Juve is his only realistic option (maybe PSG as well). I don't think he will end up at Real. It appears that Zidane wants Pogba but Perez prefers Camavinga.

[Soylent Brown]

I don't know. The Zidane-Pogba rumours seem lazy, especially given that Zidane isn't having the best of years anyway. Does he need a luxury numpty who's maybe a quarter as good as he was? (Being generous)

[A Horse Named Stranger]

1 hour ago, Consigliere said:

Going by various reports, it does appear that Mbappe and Haaland are going to be priority targets for Real Madrid. Mbappe will have 1 year remaining on his contract at the end of this season and it doesn't look like he's interested in renewing. I think Real will make a move for him at the end of the season and Haaland in 2022 when his release clause becomes active. A possible obstacle for a Haaland transfer to Real is that Perez has a pretty low opinion of Raiola who will be looking for a big payday for himself. As far as Pogba goes, I think that Juve is his only realistic option (maybe PSG as well). I don't think he will end up at Real. It appears that Zidane wants Pogba but Perez prefers Camavinga.

Doesn't matter. As you said before, Haaland has been heavily linked to Real for a while now, and is being described as key piece for their future team (aka next Gen Galacticos). Right now Haaland is (according to Raiola) very happy with life at Dortmund, which offers him the perfect enviroment to develop. And according to Raiola, Haaland won't move for money, but if he feels he wants to take the next step and win Trophies (capital T). Obviously, there's a fair chance, that he wants to take that next step to a bigger club, when his release clause kicks in (if not before). But I agree, 2022 looks more likely, as Dortmund would ask for a very big payday to part with him earlier, ´which very few clubs could pay. And if we take Mino's word, that Haaland would be looking for a team to chase the CL, that would narrow things down further.

 

[Soylent Brown]

If Haaland didn't care about money, he wouldn't be with Raiola.

The whole super agent thing is kind of bullshit anyway. Good players will earn good wages, that'll happen regardless of who represents them.

I suppose Raiola is impressive in that he manages to convince so many good players that they need him, but in reality I expect someone like Haaland could go to Real Madrid with his mum alongside him and get even more money by pointing out they don't need to spend 20m on agent fees.

[polishgenius]

11 hours ago, Iskaral Pust said:

Fernandes has been the real Pogba-killer. He does more, does it better and more consistently,

Pogba's got problems and Bruno is definitely more consistent but they aren't similar players and we're still a much better team when we do get Pogba going than when not. It's not a coincidence that we got much better against Leipzig after he came on and he was our best player against West Ham (both games in which he got more freedom to move forward than often when in a midfield three, which is also not a coincidence). I understand people's frustration - I get frustrated obviously- and ultimately at this point we do need to replace him, but he's still a good-to-brilliant player the majority of the time and replacing him is not gonna be anything like easy.

[Consigliere]

10 hours ago, Soylent Brown said:

I don't know. The Zidane-Pogba rumours seem lazy, especially given that Zidane isn't having the best of years anyway. Does he need a luxury numpty who's maybe a quarter as good as he was? (Being generous)

A few reliable journos for RM have reported on it. Zidane has made some comments in the past too. He clearly rates Pogba. 

 

4 hours ago, Soylent Brown said:

by pointing out they don't need to spend 20m on agent fees.

The agent fees are going to be much higher than that. Dortmund spent more on agent fees for Haaland than they spent on the transfer fee (€20m transfer fee and €25m in agent fees). It's worth remembering that with Haaland the buying club is going to have to pay commission for two agents (Raiola and Alf-Inge Haaland). Whichever club triggers his release clause should also be prepared to pay around €40m in agent fees, maybe more. 

[Heartofice]

I don't see how the Pogba + Bruno equation adds up. If you have Bruno as a 10 then you then need to have Pogba in a central 2.. and he really isn't at his best doing that, or you need one hell of a ball winner beside him. Ole's experiments with a diamond would probably work better with different fullbacks so I don't see that as a solution. 

So really it's a choice between Bruno and Pogba, and you have to say Bruno has performed at a much higher level since being at Utd. 

[Mark Antony]

Klopp deserves a bit of stick for playing him in a meaningless dead rubber 

[ljkeane]

Jota’s probably the one frontline Liverpool player who hasn’t been overplayed so far this year. Injuries just happen sometimes. Hopefully it’s not too serious.

[polishgenius]

4 hours ago, Heartofice said:

and he really isn't at his best doing that, or you need one hell of a ball winner beside him

Pogba is at his best as the middle man of a midfield three -  even if you play him as a 10 he drops deeper anyway- but he does need a ballwinner next to him yeah. He needs the freedom to move around, not be required to sit tight and control the passing from deep to cover for any defficiencies in his midfield partner's covering ability. 

[polishgenius]

It's kind of hard to believe how fast Villa have turned around from the often-times mess of last season to the genuinely classy footballing outfit of so far this year. They do need to turn their possession into better chances here though.

[Soylent Brown]

A big problem they have is Grealish is all too often only interested in running into cul-de-sacs and shooting into the legs of defenders. If someone explained the concept of passing to him, Villa would be a lot more effective.