Covid-19 #24: You Scream, I Scream, We all Scream for Vaccine

[Hereward]

57 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

I just said “f—- it” and am currently eating indoors at a restaurant. It has capacity restrictions not mandated by the state, and its early in the day, yet, so there’s only three other people here.

I figure if it’s my time, it’s my goddamn time.

 

ETA - I haven’t been out of my house without an N95 mask and a surgical mask on top of that, within two weeks. So it’s gonna be me who gets it, not me who gives it. So don’t preach.

I haven’t been out other than to walk my dogs for 10 months. Still not doing it.

[Padraig]

1 hour ago, Mudguard said:

That would be a strange way to calculate 2 dose efficacy.  I would think that the two dose efficacy is calculated from a point after the second dose was administered because infections that occur after the first dose but before the second dose are really a reflection of the single dose efficacy.  And normally, efficacy should go up after receiving the booster.  I'm sure people will be discussing the results soon, so maybe there will be further explanation. 

You are right. It is confusing.

Quote

a single dose of the vaccine is 76% effective from 22- to up to 90-days post vaccination.

Quote

They report that the effect of dosing interval on efficacy is pronounced, with vaccine efficacy rising from 54.9% with an interval of less than six weeks to 82.4% when spaced 12 or more weeks apart. 

I'm missing something but I would have thought that the 54.9% figure should be at least 76%.

[Zorral]

The more people who are immunized from a contagious disease means the cause of the disease, virus or bacteria, etc., has less opportunity to evolve and mutate, as well as having limited opportunity to keep 'learning' the most vulnerable systems and organs to inhabit for replication.

 

[Week]

1 hour ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

I just said “f—- it” and am currently eating indoors at a restaurant. It has capacity restrictions not mandated by the state, and its early in the day, yet, so there’s only three other people here.

I figure if it’s my time, it’s my goddamn time.

 

ETA - I haven’t been out of my house without an N95 mask and a surgical mask on top of that, within two weeks. So it’s gonna be me who gets it, not me who gives it. So don’t preach.

I would add that it probably isn't that pleasant for the EMTs taking folks to the hospital, docs that have been in the COVID wing for months, or the coroners dealing with an onslaught of excess deaths.

We all make our own decisions - plenty are making the same you are (and you are being thoughtful and cautious about your timing) -- just pushing back on the "if it's my time, it's my time" devil may care attitude that has the US in it's current state.

[Week]

23 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

Your guilt trip is not working.

ONE time in an indoor restaurant in months is not going to be the End Times.

My dad is one of those coroners, and everyone else I’m related to is either a doctor or nurse, so they are already happily vaccinated.

Not a guilt trip -- just grumping after a winter storm and reacting to the wavy justification. <Never mind otherwise, not looking to pick a fight>

[Zorral]

Lessee, I get the potatoes I bake at home from a middling upscale 'boutique' food emporium.  Probably it costs, depending on how large, as they are sold by the lb. -- o, maybe 90 cents? Or a dollar?  The sour cream costs per serving from an 8 oz container, maybe 30- some cents, depending on how much sour cream one uses, of course.  Bacon is the most pricey item, depending on where one gets the bacon, and how much at a time, whether with or without certain added chemicals, or from the local farmer selling at the Farmers/Green Market the parts of the pig he raised and butchered himself.    

But we all are different, yet, In fact, two potatoes are baking in the oven here even as I type, making the place smell warm and cozy on this night when the snow, or rain, or whatever it is, still comes down, the winds gust to 30-some mph, and the low tonight will be in the 20's.  Are we ever glad we don't have to go out to eat!    But as a national pundit who doesn't live here wrote in her newspaper or twitter feed or whatever last week -- "All the people freezing their asses off in the outdoor restaurants in 40° to eat french fries proves NYers will do anything rather than cook or wash dishes.  They must be served!"

 

[Mlle. Zabzie]

I will be fascinated to see what this massive snow storm (which I think will be followed by a second one next weekend) does to numbers in the Northeast.  It’s a de facto shutdown - roads are clear-ISH but the snow is going to stay around for a while.  On the other hand may push people who would have been outside indoors.

[Mlle. Zabzie]

Just now, Chataya de Fleury said:

Yup, we don’t have snow, but rain, cold weather, and 35 mile an hour wind, which is bad enough. I usually can eat outdoors in a parka and a blanket in even 40 degrees, but not 30 degrees with a lot of wind. 

So, the weather could well result in a spike. 

On the other hand, I did hear the aged 65+ guy who was sitting twelve feet away from me (my nearest contact) that he had just gotten his second vaccine dose, so maybe at least some vaccine might be a mitigating factor?

Or maybe it will be nothing?  Just curious to see. We stopped vaccinating for a day at least which is a problem

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

53 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

Yup, we don’t have snow, but rain, cold weather, and 35 mile an hour wind, which is bad enough. I usually can eat outdoors in a parka and a blanket in even 40 degrees, but not 30 degrees with a lot of wind. 

And you call yourself a child of the Midwest.....

[Mudguard]

2 hours ago, Padraig said:

You are right. It is confusing.

I'm missing something but I would have thought that the 54.9% figure should be at least 76%.

Yeah, that doesn't make sense.  If single shot efficacy is 76% after 22 days, why is two shot efficacy when the interval between does is less than 6 weeks only 55%.  Doesn't add up.  As you say, it should be at least 76%.  Are these numbers the product of slicing up the dataset in a way that comparisons can't be made between the different groups?  Small group sizes?  Large uncertainties around the reported numbers?  I'm sure that there will be follow up articles about the results, and maybe Oxford/AstraZeneca will provide an explanation.

I'm very confident that the vaccine works given the efficacy of similar vaccines, but there's still some lingering questions about the exact efficacy.  I think the data from a large US clinical trial should be coming in soon, so hopefully that can clear some of this up.

[mcbigski]

4 hours ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

I will be fascinated to see what this massive snow storm (which I think will be followed by a second one next weekend) does to numbers in the Northeast.  It’s a de facto shutdown - roads are clear-ISH but the snow is going to stay around for a while.  On the other hand may push people who would have been outside indoors.

I didn't go stomping in it but looked like closer to 1 foot than 2 in the Hartford area.  So Monday was a stay home day and by 11:00am today the roads were well clear.  Probably much earlier but I slept poorly last night.  

My impression from living in new england for 46 years is that the slack gets picked up within 3 days, less if weather clears.  Its not like driving in Alabama snow.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

So I guess I have officially agreed to the fudging of my morals. The woman I've been seeing for the past few months, who is quite the catch, is laying out plans to see each other at a nice hotel in two weeks. I can't pass.

[Pebble thats Stubby]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

So I guess I have officially agreed to the fudging of my morals. The woman I've been seeing for the past few months, who is quite the catch, is laying out plans to see each other at a nice hotel in two weeks. I can't pass.

If the plans invovle bringing your own Zorb then no morals need to be fudged.  although that may be less fun.

[Crixus]

Some good news: ICU mortality rates have dropped from 60% at the start of the pandemic to 36% due to better treatments: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/02/covid-mortality-down-dramatically-since-start-of-pandemic-study-finds 

Not-so-good-news: the monoclonal antibodies treatments are not proving as effective against the South Africa, UK and Brazil variants: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/02/monoclonal-antibodies-great-hope-in-covid-treatments-fails-against-variants 

 

[Pebble thats Stubby]

1 hour ago, Crixus said:

Some good news: ICU mortality rates have dropped from 60% at the start of the pandemic to 36% due to better treatments: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/02/covid-mortality-down-dramatically-since-start-of-pandemic-study-finds 

Not-so-good-news: the monoclonal antibodies treatments are not proving as effective against the South Africa, UK and Brazil variants: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/02/monoclonal-antibodies-great-hope-in-covid-treatments-fails-against-variants 

 

This to me suggests that if you had Covid before your antibodies gained are less likely to be effective against these new strains increasing the risk of getting COVID a second time.

 

I also think the antibody treatments will need updating and use the antibodies of those who have recovered from the new strains.

[ljkeane]

6 hours ago, Mudguard said:

Yeah, that doesn't make sense.  If single shot efficacy is 76% after 22 days, why is two shot efficacy when the interval between does is less than 6 weeks only 55%.  Doesn't add up.  As you say, it should be at least 76%.  Are these numbers the product of slicing up the dataset in a way that comparisons can't be made between the different groups?  Small group sizes?  Large uncertainties around the reported numbers?  I'm sure that there will be follow up articles about the results, and maybe Oxford/AstraZeneca will provide an explanation.

I'm very confident that the vaccine works given the efficacy of similar vaccines, but there's still some lingering questions about the exact efficacy.  I think the data from a large US clinical trial should be coming in soon, so hopefully that can clear some of this up.

This is the actual paper the press release is referencing.

I think it's probably important to note this wasn't a study designed to look at the things they're talking about. They've just gone back and looked at the data on the participants in their previous trials in light of the talk around the UK's 12 week gap between doses to see if they can add anything based on evidence to the discussion. I wouldn't necessarily take the exact numbers on efficacy as definitive, the important question is whether there's a significant loss of protection before the second dose at 12 weeks and whether it makes the vaccination's overall efficacy worse to have that gap. I'm not entirely sure I totally follow everything they're talking about but it looks like there's a pretty solid case protection from the first dose is good up to 90 days and there's a reasonable case leaving a longer gap between doses actually improves the efficacy of the vaccine.

Just as an aside I wouldn't necessarily expect the US trial to have more data on this subject because the circumstances that lead to them varying the dose interval previously might not be repeated. 

[ljkeane]

So my stepdad just got his first vaccine dose. It turns out he actually got the Pfizer one. So on the one hand good news because it's probably more effective. On the other hand having just read all the stuff about dosing intervals I'd be a lot more confident that the Astrazeneca one is fine to leave a 12 week gap between doses.

[Mlle. Zabzie]

11 hours ago, mcbigski said:

I didn't go stomping in it but looked like closer to 1 foot than 2 in the Hartford area.  So Monday was a stay home day and by 11:00am today the roads were well clear.  Probably much earlier but I slept poorly last night.  

My impression from living in new england for 46 years is that the slack gets picked up within 3 days, less if weather clears.  Its not like driving in Alabama snow.

We are further west.  We got about 2 feet.  City is about 16 inches.  And yeah, roads are mostly clear but you have the night freeze black ice issue with the ongoing low temp.  But you don’t REALLY have people eating “outside” at restaurants (freaking cold) - in the city there isn’t indoor dining until 2/14, so basically cuts that off.  Does that mean people are socializing indoors in homes?  Or not socializing?  I suspect the former......

10 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

So I guess I have officially agreed to the fudging of my morals. The woman I've been seeing for the past few months, who is quite the catch, is laying out plans to see each other at a nice hotel in two weeks. I can't pass.

Here’s the thing.  This is still going to be with us in some form next year.  Your life cannot be on hold for 24 months in its entirety.  We are beyond that now.  So, you two be smart, get tests and quarantine thereafter.  And have lots of fun

[Mlle. Zabzie]

47 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

Covid testing - it's the new STD test. lol. 

 

And the bold is exactly why I went and had that baked potato. Got the key lime pie to go. That baked potato was definitely better than bad or mediocre sex. Not as good as good sex, but that butter, sour cream, and shredded cheddar cheese, with sea salt on the potato skin....potato itself was soft and creamy...omg.

Also, I don’t eat The Potato often even in normal times because it is a heart attack waiting to happen. The Potato is available at Houston’s, if there is one in your area. 

I love the Houston's veggie burger.  I get it because it is a Good Thing in and of itself.  

Also, had to get a locksmith in today to change the locks on our new place.  Apparently, under NY law, I had to be there, right next to him.  The way the entryway is built there wasn't a way to completely distance.  So, anyhow, I was double masked, but Jacob the locksmith's mask game wasn't everything I would have dreamed.  Oh well.  Fingers crossed?  I really needed to get the locks changed for safety.

[Zorral]

People are out right this minute, eating outdoors, wrapped in their bring-my-own electric blankets.

The last official reading I saw yesterday, for the amount of snowfall in Manhattan at least, was early last evening: 17.03".