Covid-19 #28: Astra Projecting is an Out of Body Experience

[Heartofice]

25 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

In all this no one has mentioned that AZ provided up-dated numbers this morning. They had originally reported 79% efficacy based on the Feb.17 cut-off date (or was it 78.9%? And everyone rounded it up?) and now they said it was 76%.

This required all the shock and horror displayed earlier? Were they supposed to announce 74% and then come back with a higher number?

Also the efficacy for the over 65’s went up from 80% to 85%.  Shock and horror 

[Zorral]

For manufacture and supply of vaccines, there is the complication of supply chain impediment, due to many factors, not least the availability of shipping containers, and now the addition of the Suez Canal blockage.

So many moving parts to make and ship vaccines, even before distributing them to locales and regions and getting them into arms.

Quote

 

Supply Lines is a daily newsletter that tracks trade and supply chains disrupted by the pandemic. 

Read in Bloomberg: https://apple.news/Afi-Qq8qQQu2m9OmzYLyHqw

 

Cargo-market disruption are playing havoc on global trade, especially for food and agricultural products. Port traffic has gotten snarled, freight costs have gone up and deliveries have slowed.
The container crisis, sparked by huge demand from China, has been playing out for months. But Suzano’s warning is among the first major signs showing the spillover into other shipping markets. If the squeeze continues to increase freight costs, it also raises the specter of accelerating inflation.

 

 

 

[JoannaL]

26 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

Also the efficacy for the over 65’s went up from 80% to 85%.  Shock and horror 

Yes it was a rather good day for AZ no horror stories as of yet...

 

[Fragile Bird]

If I recall correctly, India was complaining recently that getting certain supplies was difficult because, correct me if I'm wrong, the US had ordered so much for itself. I don't think this stuff moves by cargo ship, it moves by airplane.

Biden announced he was trying for 200 M doses administered by the end of his first 100 days, as mentioned above. I will be curious to see if there's a drop-off after that, as was predicted back in December or January. 100 M people fully vaccinated is 2/5ths of the adult population. The EO says "when every American who wants a vaccination gets it". It will be interesting to see how long the US government drags that out before they allow exports. Since testing has now started on children, I bet that's going to include 85 M children being vaccinated. 

Eta: That date is April 30, btw.

As for a slow down in vaccinations, I see more and more states are opening up vaccinations to everyone over the age of 16. California just did, for example. I have a suspicion that's because states are seeing fewer people from some age groups than they expected.

[Arakan]

1 hour ago, horangi said:

I'd offer that a few of you are trying too hard to apply a moral judgment to an inherently amoral realm.   While I disagree with some of his a priori principles and conclusions, Rippounet had a good summary (as usual) of the situation and logic from an IR perspective.  All countries are inherently selfish, its just that depending on their relative powers (economic, military, soft etc), government systems, and other environmental factors such as the situation on the ground, they have more or less inherent interest in cooperation on different issues and different times.  Honestly, if you were to black box this situation, its playing out quite like I would expect it using a structural realist model if you replaced their names with A,B,C,D etc.  Is it possible that some countries are miscalculating?  Sure, and on average likely.  However, I doubt any major power is going to get punished by the international community for prioritizing its citizens, that's kinda every country's raison d'être.  As Rip mentioned, its not a one and done decision, defection now, cooperation later, tit-for-tatt engagement, and issue linkage are all on the table.  Now, if in a couple months, states decide price gouging surplus vaccines and embargoing countries is better than cooperation, then I suspect they are doing more self-harm than good; but today, situationally, it may prove to be a cost-benefit winner for those states. 

A lot of words. Let me answer quick and short. Export of Corona vaccines so far:
EU: 77 million 
USA: 0
UK: 0

Furthermore: don’t portrait yourself as the country of freedom, justice and human rights given the above. Just a thought. 
 

This is a socio-cultural mentality issue. Majority of Anglo-American elites view the world as a zero-sum game. Some win, majority loses. Competition is the main credo. Winning at all costs is the driving factor. Funny thing is: if all the world thought and worked like this, this planet would be fucked without chance of redemption.

 

[Clueless Northman]

1 hour ago, horangi said:

I'd offer that a few of you are trying too hard to apply a moral judgment to an inherently amoral realm.   While I disagree with some of his a priori principles and conclusions, Rippounet had a good summary (as usual) of the situation and logic from an IR perspective.  All countries are inherently selfish, its just that depending on their relative powers (economic, military, soft etc), government systems, and other environmental factors such as the situation on the ground, they have more or less inherent interest in cooperation on different issues and different times.  Honestly, if you were to black box this situation, its playing out quite like I would expect it using a structural realist model if you replaced their names with A,B,C,D etc.  Is it possible that some countries are miscalculating?  Sure, and on average likely.  However, I doubt any major power is going to get punished by the international community for prioritizing its citizens, that's kinda every country's raison d'être.  As Rip mentioned, its not a one and done decision, defection now, cooperation later, tit-for-tatt engagement, and issue linkage are all on the table.  Now, if in a couple months, states decide price gouging surplus vaccines and embargoing countries is better than cooperation, then I suspect they are doing more self-harm than good; but today, situationally, it may prove to be a cost-benefit winner for those states. 

To be blunt, a key selling point of the EU is that medium-sized countries banding together can be considered as a major power. The EU exists because its members don't want that kind of shit to happen to them anymore. If EU leadership has any sense, there should be consequences and punishment due to this murderous behaviour - thousands are dying across Europe right now, Central Europe is hitting record numbers of deaths and topping global death ratios. So much for Western ideals and alliance. If EU sticks to being good buddies with the USA and UK after that, then its leadership is hopeless and deserves to be lynched by European peoples, the way the De Witt brothers were.

This is the biggest crisis since decades, this is one of the biggest disaster since WWII, and all the USA could come up with is Amerika first, let's vaccinate 200 mio people here while banning exports of vaccines we won't even use, not to mention BoJo basically deciding Brexit means Brexit and scamming EU to boot. There should be massive consequences to this, the way it would have, had a major power decided to give the bird to its allies back in 1941. Honestly, at this point, Merkel and others should begin to consider a true reversal of alliance.

[Larry of the Lawn]

27 minutes ago, Arakan said:

A lot of words. Let me answer quick and short. Export of Corona vaccines so far:
EU: 77 million 
USA: 0
UK: 0

Furthermore: don’t portrait yourself as the country of freedom, justice and human rights given the above. Just a thought. 
 

This is a socio-cultural mentality issue. Majority of Anglo-American elites view the world as a zero-sum game. Some win, majority loses. Competition is the main credo. Winning at all costs is the driving factor. Funny thing is: if all the world thought and worked like this, this planet would be fucked without chance of redemption.

 

Is there any reason, given history, that you would have expected anything else?  Like, what USA have you been watching thinking we'd behave differently?  

[Zorral]

39 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

I don't think this stuff moves by cargo ship, it moves by airplane.

I hope so!  Thanks!

You know what would be a really good financial move, would be to finance and invest in Cuba's vaccine programs.  But of course, almost all the world is prohibited from doing so, thanks to the U.S.A.

And Cuba really needs that kind of investment desperately, cut off from every sort of international financial participation as it is, including prohibition from the huge financial trading markets, and even the teeny ones.  If we could do this without chancing -- whether now or later, depending on who is in power in D.C. -- a prosecution, we sure would..

 

[Zorral]

Good grief, I just saw the total number of US infections is ... 30 (THIRTY)  MILLION!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/03/25/coronavirus-covid-live-updates-us/

Quote

President Biden said his latest target is to have 200 million coronavirus vaccine doses administered by his 100th day in office, formally announcing the vaccination goal the same day the total number of coronavirus cases in the United States hit the 30 million mark....

 

[Padraig]

1 hour ago, ljkeane said:

Novavax are apparently delaying signing a supply agreement with the EU because they're struggling to obtain raw materials to produce their vaccine. That's not ideal.

Wow.   

Thanks for the news.  I've been wondering what was causing the delay with signing that deal.  But I appreciate their honesty, rather than signing and praying like AZ seems to have done.  I wonder is Valneva in the same boat?  They were also supposed to have reached a preliminary deal in Dec (IIRC).

Ok.  So maybe there wouldn't be other vaccines available in Q2.  And if Novavax is having trouble, will that begin to hit other manufacturers also?  As Fragile Bird mentioned, India was already saying that it would have difficulty producing the Novavax vaccine given American restrictions.  It might be that American companies' supply chains are more exposed to American restrictions.  But then, J&J, Pfizer and Moderna are all American too.

Hmm.   The UK signed its Novavax deal months ago, so I wonder is there consequences to that?   Although, more likely, it can manage to produce enough doses for that contract.  The EU one is larger and thus more challenging.  The Reuters article also mentions that the Czech factory isn't enough to supply the EU.  I wonder was the original plan to supply the EU from the UK.  And maybe the EU is very wary of that!

Anyhow, sounds like Novavax will have millions of doses ready for the US.  So there is that...

1 hour ago, Rippounet said:

common corporate greed or incompetence might be at fault here, with AZ selling way more doses than it could deliver (playing the UK against the EU?).

I guess it was greed.  Delivering 120m in Q1 to the EU was a best case scenario.  But it failed miserably.  It may have thought it could use doses from the US (a US factory was mentioned in the EU contract) but that option was closed off by the US.  And i'm not even sure about that because if things had gone to plan for AZ, the US would have approved it months ago. 

A UK factory was mentioned also but I don't think that was practical for the EU given the amount ordered by the UK.  So impossible to figure out AZ.  There should have been 2 or 3 factories in the EU but there wasn't (or the 1 EU factory should have been massive, which it clearly isn't).

2 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

Were they supposed to announce 74% and then come back with a higher number?

Somebody put up a link earlier saying that Fauci's dept were having a bit of an argument with AZ about what figures they should use.  AZ were told not to use the interim figures and they choose to.  So Fauci's dept publicly reprimanded them.  I don't think Fauci had seen the final figures but there was a clear indication that they were going to decline from the interim results.  It does look like they improved a little at the end to get back up to 76%.

One of those things that shouldn't happen.

[Padraig]

48 minutes ago, Clueless Northman said:

This is the biggest crisis since decades, this is one of the biggest disaster since WWII, and all the USA could come up with is Amerika first, let's vaccinate 200 mio people here while banning exports of vaccines we won't even use, not to mention BoJo basically deciding Brexit means Brexit and scamming EU to boot. There should be massive consequences to this, the way it would have, had a major power decided to give the bird to its allies back in 1941. Honestly, at this point, Merkel and others should begin to consider a true reversal of alliance.

I think you have gone a bit too far with this.  The EU can't close its doors to the UK or the US.  The US is too large and the UK is a close neighbour.  And its not like there are great alternatives. 

But yes, this pandemic reinforces the need to be more self-reliant, which is not great.  I'm not sure they really expected much from the UK after Brexit though?  Maybe they may have hoped that Biden would change direction more but to be honest, if the US decided to start divesting itself of vaccines tomorrow, those vaccines shouldn't be coming to Europe.  There are so many other countries in dire need.  Places like Jordan/Lebanon?  Brazil, although that is largely self-inflicted.

Now maybe the US could have done more with facilitating Novavax's factory in the EU?  It will be interesting to learn more about that.  The EU having to get its own J&J fill and finish factory because it couldn't trust sending vaccine to the US for finishing is rather sad.  So yes, a rather robust conversation is required...

[Arakan]

57 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

Is there any reason, given history, that you would have expected anything else?  Like, what USA have you been watching thinking we'd behave differently?  

I was naive. Maybe hoping for a change after the Trump shit show. You have to believe that we as human beings can be better. Otherwise this existence on earth is insufferable. At least for me. As GRRM. said words are wind. That’s true. Don’t judge a person by its words but by its action. What Biden is doing is as bad as what Trump might have done. He even used the same wording in his press conference earlier (something like we are the best / the fastest in vaccinations). Maybe I am just disappointed. 

[horangi]

1 hour ago, Arakan said:

A lot of words. Let me answer quick and short. Export of Corona vaccines so far:
EU: 77 million 
USA: 0
UK: 0

Furthermore: don’t portrait yourself as the country of freedom, justice and human rights given the above. Just a thought. 
 

This is a socio-cultural mentality issue. Majority of Anglo-American elites view the world as a zero-sum game. Some win, majority loses. Competition is the main credo. Winning at all costs is the driving factor. Funny thing is: if all the world thought and worked like this, this planet would be fucked without chance of redemption.

 

Given that structural realism was developed based on observing primarily European states, from Thucydides on forward, I'd say the vast majority of, at least western, countries are acting in a way consistent with these models.  Though "View the world" adds way too much individual attribution, I doubt you will find many IR experts or even national leaders who wish it was the way the world works, it just is.  To rephrase one of yours statements- its not "if all the world thought and worked like this, this planet would be fucked" but rather "this planet is in its current state of fucked because all the world thought and works like this." The tragedy of the commons heeds no national boundaries or cultural norms. 

BTW- I dont think many IR folks would say the world is purely Zero-Sum, there are certainly opportunities for mutual benefit through cooperation, Nash equilibriums etc, and I'd say that Neoliberalism (the other predominate model for IR other than perhaps constructivism) certainly hitches itself to that concept, and unlike realism, does have anglo-american origins.  That said, I do think its interesting that you chose a very much zero sum example.  Another way to write it would be:

EU -77 million

UK: +10 million (or whatever the current count was from the EU)

Other states: +67 million.

 

[Zorral]

I'm confused by this argument, as to, well, how does the US give contracted doses that don't exist to other countries --  which countries? because there clearly isn't enough vaccine manufactured and available for every person on the planet yet -- instead of giving the contracted doses that don't exist to US citizens?

I'm not trying to be a smart ass here.

Yet, it looks as though we're arguing over what still doesn't exist.  Or at least not enough of it exists, along with all the other necessary paraphernalia necessary to open vaccine centers.

In the meantime those millions of AZ -- aren't they supposed to go to Mexico  and Canada, --  if I understand that correctly? when the CDC approves them?

Are these particular AZ doses staying unused in US warehouses after approval? 

Are there actual AZ doses in actual warehouses, or just contracted doses on pixel contracts?

Hasn't Israel fully vaccinated the largest portion of its citizens?  It's a rich country.  Is it vaccinating others now? 

Please pardon that I'm unclear on this.  I've been trying to find out, but I'm seeing a lot of contradictory or just nothing at all when searching.  But I'm not so good with a lot of what's necessary to understand all this in detail.

[williamjm]

2 hours ago, Padraig said:

Wow.   

Thanks for the news.  I've been wondering what was causing the delay with signing that deal.  But I appreciate their honesty, rather than signing and praying like AZ seems to have done.  I wonder is Valneva in the same boat?  They were also supposed to have reached a preliminary deal in Dec (IIRC).

Ok.  So maybe there wouldn't be other vaccines available in Q2.

I think Valneva were always expected to only be available in the second half of the year.

[Fragile Bird]

5 minutes ago, Zorral said:

I'm confused by this argument, as to, well, how does the US give contracted doses that don't exist to other countries --  which countries? because there clearly isn't enough vaccine manufactured and available for every person on the planet yet -- instead of giving the contracted doses that don't exist to US citizens?

I'm not trying to be a smart ass here.

Yet, it looks as though we're arguing over what still doesn't exist.  Or at least not enough of it exists, along with all the other necessary paraphernalia necessary to open vaccine centers.

In the meantime those millions of AZ -- aren't they supposed to go to Mexico  and Canada, --  if I understand that correctly? when the CDC approves them?

Are these particular AZ doses staying unused in US warehouses after approval? 

Are there actual AZ doses in actual warehouses, or just contracted doses on pixel contracts?

Hasn't Israel fully vaccinated the largest portion of its citizens?  It's a rich country.  Is it vaccinating others now? 

Please pardon that I'm unclear on this.  I've been trying to find out, but I'm seeing a lot of contradictory or just nothing at all when searching.  But I'm not so good with a lot of what's necessary to understand all this in detail.

I can only speak for Canada, we were supposed to receive our Pfizer vaccine from the US, and the Moderna as well. And 20 M AZ, delivered from the time of approval through to the end of September. And when approved, our Novavax order. Oh, J&J as well.

But then Trump decided to order all vaccines be kept for Americans only. While the EO was only signed in mid-December, I believe there were discussions with the companies ahead of time and the companies told the government that they had supply contracts with various countries (I’m sure Canada wasn’t the only country), and they would be violating their contracts if they didn’t deliver. I really believe that’s why Trump created his EO. For one thing, he hadn’t ordered enough vaccine doses, and by blocking the export of vaccine the US government could order whatever vaccine they wanted without worrying about delivery.

The US so far is only willing to release 1.5 M doses of the AZ vaccine to Canada and 2.5 M to Mexico (so obviously Mexico had ordered AZ vaccine). I gather that the Biden administration told Mexico that they had to stop people from crossing the border, it’s been noted that within hours of the Mexican military being deployed at the border the US announced it would send the doses. I’ve also seen a story saying the amount is now 2.7 M for Mexico, but I haven’t gone searching for confirmation of that.

And yes, there are 30 M AZ doses sitting in a warehouse in Ohio.

[williamjm]

37 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Hasn't Israel fully vaccinated the largest portion of its citizens?  It's a rich country.  Is it vaccinating others now?

I think Pfizer is only currently being manufactured in the US and Belgium so presumably Israel's vaccines have all come from the latter.

[Zorral]

39 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

I can only speak for Canada, we were supposed to receive our Pfizer vaccine from the US, and the Moderna as well. And 20 M AZ, delivered from the time of approval through to the end of September. And when approved, our Novavax order. Oh, J&J as well.

But then Trump decided to order all vaccines be kept for Americans only. While the EO was only signed in mid-December, I believe there were discussions with the companies ahead of time and the companies told the government that they had supply contracts with various countries (I’m sure Canada wasn’t the only country), and they would be violating their contracts if they didn’t deliver. I really believe that’s why Trump created his EO. For one thing, he hadn’t ordered enough vaccine doses, and by blocking the export of vaccine the US government could order whatever vaccine they wanted without worrying about delivery.

The US so far is only willing to release 1.5 M doses of the AZ vaccine to Canada and 2.5 M to Mexico (so obviously Mexico had ordered AZ vaccine). I gather that the Biden administration told Mexico that they had to stop people from crossing the border, it’s been noted that within hours of the Mexican military being deployed at the border the US announced it would send the doses. I’ve also seen a story saying the amount is now 2.7 M for Mexico, but I haven’t gone searching for confirmation of that.

And yes, there are 30 M AZ doses sitting in a warehouse in Ohio.

Thank you, Bird.

So if this was all done by monster previous by EO, this is one EO that the current president hasn't walked back? Presumably, monster previous and his monster progeny all believed they were going to make multiple fortunes from this . . . .

I really, really hope at the very least, those 30 million AZ doses in Ohio get trucked as soon as CDC approval to you and Mexico.

29 minutes ago, williamjm said:

...Belgium so presumably Israel's vaccines have all come from the latter.

Did Belgium have factory troubles?  I seem remember something about that?  So much happens -- and doesn't happen -- very fast.

 

[TrueMetis]

Why does there need to be CDC approval to ship doses to other countries? We approved them, just give us them.

[Padraig]

1 hour ago, williamjm said:

I think Valneva were always expected to only be available in the second half of the year.

That is true.  I'm more thinking that the EU is being a lot stricter when defining delivery dates.  Novavax doesn't want to sign its contract until it is sure it can deliver.  It might be thinking that by June the US will know it will hit its 4th July target, and hoping that releases pressure on demand for ingredients.

Valneva may be planning to make deliveries in Q4 but it too can't be sure right now. 

AZ  has changed everything.

5 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Did Belgium have factory troubles?  I seem remember something about that?  So much happens -- and doesn't happen -- very fast.

It increased production but that lead to a temporary drop in supply.

And yes, I imagine once AZ will be approved, the remaining amount will be used domestically in the US.  I don't think Biden thinks he can get away with donating them to other countries.  Similar to the UK.  (I think you could sell that argument but I wouldn't suggest it would be easy).