US Politics: Rural Southernification… (thanks Zorral)

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

7 minutes ago, DMC said:

Um, no.  Because I'm not dodging.  You are saying virtually the entire Democratic party has to eat whatever Manchin gives them.  I'm saying that's bullshit.  This has nothing to do with the "facts of life."  You're not being pragmatic, you're being feckless.

Lol, yes you are. Right now the gulf between the two sides is as high as $2.5T. You're argument is that Manchin and Sinema should relent and accept ALL $3.5T. They're obviously saying no to that, and if your stance doesn't change the likely outcome is that the deal falls apart. You now need to explain what you would do after the fact or why you think somehow Manchin will just completely walk everything back. To not do so and repeat over and over again that they just need to accept something they've said they won't is not being serious. 

[Martell Spy]

1 hour ago, larrytheimp said:

I think Manchin just needs to make noise and get some attention, he'll be fine with voting for the appropriations bill with a couple small concessions, he just needs to get some press and make it look like he's fighting the man, even if it's fruitless.

Knock it down a couple hundred billion and he can say "I saved taxpayers 200 billion" or whatever the fuck gets his rocks off 

Possibly. Or he's trying to kill specific parts, such as climate change provisions that he doesn't like.

I assume this means Michelle won't let him go on the trail.

Obama to star in Newsom ads in recall's final week

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2021/09/08/obama-to-star-in-newsom-ads-in-recalls-final-week-1390797

Quote

 

OAKLAND — Former President Barack Obama will appear in a statewide ad urging Californians to reject the recall of Gov. Gavin Newsom in the final days of the campaign.

The spot launching Thursday underscores Newsom's strategy of enlisting national Democrats to help boost liberal turnout before voting ends Tuesday. While Democrats vastly outnumber Republicans in California, polls have shown GOP voters are more eager to vote.

 

 

[DMC]

16 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Lol, yes you are. Right now the gulf between the two sides is as high as $2.5T. You're argument is that Manchin and Sinema should relent and accept ALL $3.5T.

That's never been my argument.  See above.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

21 minutes ago, DMC said:

That's never been my argument.  See above.

See what above specifically? Last time we went at this I asked if you could accept more than 85 cents on the dollar to get a deal done right then and there and you said no. And you've said several times that 95% of Democrats should not capitulate to the small minority. So be specific. 

[DMC]

5 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

So be specific. 

Well, first of all, 85% of 3.5 is nearly 3, whereas you were arguing 2.5 trillion, so I think you need to go back to math class.  Secondly, the argument has never been about specific numbers but rather your approach and responsibility attribution.  If you don't get that by now that's your problem.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

13 minutes ago, DMC said:

Well, first of all, 85% of 3.5 is nearly 3, whereas you were arguing 2.5 trillion, so I think you need to go back to math class. 

Lol, no. The 85% number comes from the 20% cut I proposed in the in the $3.5T bill plus the $1.1T bill. That's 84.8% of the total package buddy. And you still said no to that. 

Quote

Secondly, the argument has never been about specific numbers but rather your approach and responsibility attribution.  If you don't get that by now that's your problem.

Your argument has been that. Mine has been about pinning you down on what you could actually work with, and at every turn you've refused to even play ball in a meaningless hypothetical conversation because you don't want to and keep reaffirming your opinion that Manchin and Senima should just accept what the rest of the caucus wants, which is not going to happen so it's not a realistic negotiating strategy. 

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

Lol, no. The 85% number comes from the 20% cut I proposed in the in the $3.5T bill plus the $1.1T bill. That's 84.8% of the total package buddy. And you still said no to that. 

.....I have no idea what the fuck you're talking about here.  "The 20% cut you proposed."  Get the fuck over yourself.  I don't give a shit what dumbass numbers you propose.  The point has always been your position has been feckless capitulation.  Because your argument has always derived from feckless capitulation.

9 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Mine has been about pinning you down

I didn't know that's how you felt about me.  Seriously, "pinning me down"?  You're in some pathetic game with yourself.  The fact you are so desperate for a number is comical.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

2 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

This seems really unwise given Biden’s negative coverage in regards to the military.

My first thought was Trump’s firing of comney which rocked his polls numbers.

In Conway's case, not really. She is just blatantly unqualified. I'd put Spicer in roughly the same bracket. Personally, I would've left McMaster's appointment in place, just to show that it's not partisan excercise, but merely removing some of the most ludicrously unqualified appointments.

As for the other discussion.

Ty, sorry to break it to you. But in my rule as arbiter of truth and stuff, I feel the need to point out that DMC is just right. Manchin is a dick, and there's no reason whatsoever for Pelosi (and the liberal Democrats) to bend over backwards for Manchin. You have for two or three threads really been doing a performance art of trying to pin it on the liberal end of the Democrats (by saying: this is how the public will see it), while it's clearly Manchin's and Sinema's fault.  The mental gymnastics on that is quite something. Pelosi won't give in on the issue. I don't think she can, without losing quite a bit of control over her majority. The infrastructure bill has already been compromised.

Personally, if I were McCarthy, I'd tell the House Republicans to wave the infrastructure bill through, and thus take all the bullets out of the gun the Democratics leadership is pointing at Manchin, and watch him sink the stimulus bill.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

2 hours ago, DMC said:

.....I have no idea what the fuck you're talking about here.  "The 20% cut you proposed."  Get the fuck over yourself.  I don't give a shit what dumbass numbers you propose.  The point has always been your position has been feckless capitulation.  Because your argument has always derived from feckless capitulation.

I didn't know that's how you felt about me.  Seriously, "pinning me down"?  You're in some pathetic game with yourself.  The fact you are so desperate for a number is comical.

Lol. So you have always been arguing in bad faith. I figured as much, but this just confirms it. You attack actual numbers I suggest, but won't make any kind of counter proposal other than to say give me everything or else. Then when asked repeatedly what you'll do if that strategy fails you refuse to answer, even in a playful hypothetical. Every single time you've dodged it. 

You can call me feckless all you want, but in reality you're the guy everyone wants to get out of the room because he's being incredibly ridiculous and playing no role in actually reaching a deal. You have yet to once, literally once, after I've asked several times to write something that could actually happen. 

[Varysblackfyre321]

24 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

In Conway's case, not really. She is just blatantly unqualified. I'd put Spicer in roughly the same bracket. Personally, I would've left McMaster's appointment in place, just to show that it's not partisan excercise, but merely removing some of the most ludicrously unqualified appointments.

I can see the rational for the first two certainly eventually.

But not now. A few more weeks if Biden approval numbers ticks back up(that’s a big if, and I expect by the start of next week he’d lost at least two more points).

 

[DireWolfSpirit]

7 hours ago, larrytheimp said:

Rumors that Biden is now offering Manchin East Virginia in exchange for a $1.6T appropriations bill after reading this thread.

Manchin has conditionally agreed provided Biden agrees to 50% of said appropriations being spent in East Virginia.

[Larry of the Lawn]

I'm adding this thread to my "The Hill They Died On" Board Tour.  DM me for pricing schedule, starts at $20 US.  

[Martell Spy]

US’s wealthiest 1% are failing to pay $160bn a year in taxes, report finds
This amounts to 28% of the ‘tax gap’, treasury report says, which Biden proposes closing by empowering IRS to pursue aggressively

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/sep/08/us-wealthiest-responsible-yearly-160bn-lost-tax-revenue

Quote

 

The wealthiest 1% of Americans are responsible for more than $160bn of lost tax revenue each year, according to a new report from the US treasury.

Natasha Sarin, deputy assistant secretary for economic policy, said: “A well-functioning tax system requires that everyone pays the taxes they owe.”

According to the treasury report, the wealthiest 1% of US taxpayers are responsible for an estimated $163bn in unpaid tax each year, amounting to 28% of the “tax gap”.

Sarin said that tax gap – “the difference between taxes that are owed and collected” – amounted to “around $600bn annually and will mean approximately $7tn of lost tax revenue over the next decade.”

 

 

[Zorral]

FBI releases new video footage of the suspect who may have placed the Jan 6 pipe bombs.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/rnc-dnc-pipe-bomb-suspect-jan-6/2021/09/08/020f17aa-10d9-11ec-9cb6-bf9351a25799_story.html

Quote

 

The FBI on Wednesday released new video of a person believed to have placed pipe bombs near the Republican and Democratic National Committee headquarters in D.C. the night before the U.S. Capitol riot and revealed that investigators think the suspect is “not from the area,” as officials made another call for the public’s help to solve the case.

The new information underscores how investigators have struggled to identify the suspect more than eight months after the incident, despite footage that captured some of the person’s actions, similar public appeals for help and a $100,000 reward. Steven M. D’Antuono, the assistant director in charge of the FBI’s Washington Field Office, seemed to direct his latest appeal to those who might be close with the person who placed the devices but reluctant to come forward . . . .

. . . . The new footage shows a frontal view of a person sitting on a bench near the DNC, where a pipe bomb was later found. The bureau also released a video charting the path investigators believe the person walked, and said that partly on the basis of that route, the FBI thought the person was “operating” from a location near Folger Park in the city’s Capitol Hill neighborhood.

The FBI has said previously the person is believed to have placed the pipe bombs between 7:30 p.m. and 8:30 p.m. Jan. 5. They were not discovered until the next day, when a mob supportive of then-President Donald Trump stormed the Capitol and interrupted lawmakers tallying the electoral college results from the presidential election in November. . . . .

 

 

[Kalbear]

11 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Ty, sorry to break it to you. But in my rule as arbiter of truth and stuff, I feel the need to point out that DMC is just right. Manchin is a dick, and there's no reason whatsoever for Pelosi (and the liberal Democrats) to bend over backwards for Manchin. You have for two or three threads really been doing a performance art of trying to pin it on the liberal end of the Democrats (by saying: this is how the public will see it), while it's clearly Manchin's and Sinema's fault.  The mental gymnastics on that is quite something. Pelosi won't give in on the issue. I don't think she can, without losing quite a bit of control over her majority. The infrastructure bill has already been compromised.

So maybe this is the problem.

I don't see this as attempting to pin this on the liberal end of the Dems or do whatever like that; I see it as recognizing a central point here, which is that Biden's presidency will take a hit if he cannot pass these signature pieces - just like Trump took a hit by not passing the AHCA. The asymmetry here is that Manchin may want to pass something, but it's not particularly clear that he will suffer much if he doesn't pass anything at all. 

And like it or not, the public will see Biden spending a lot of political capital on this and getting nothing. They'll see his talk about bipartisanship and see nothing comes out of it. Mostly, they'll see him not deliver something he said he would. There isn't a lot of nuance there - there's simply him saying that he'd do something,  and not getting it done. And that hurts Biden.

Regardless of whose fault it is, it's Biden's responsibility, and the blame will fall on him. The converse is true, mind you - despite all the absurdly heavy lifting that Pelosi is doing to keep her caucus from fracturing, if this passes it will be credited mostly to Biden. 

11 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Personally, if I were McCarthy, I'd tell the House Republicans to wave the infrastructure bill through, and thus take all the bullets out of the gun the Democratics leadership is pointing at Manchin, and watch him sink the stimulus bill.

McCarthy cannot do that; only Pelosi can bring it to the floor. 

[Arakan]

2 hours ago, Martell Spy said:

US’s wealthiest 1% are failing to pay $160bn a year in taxes, report finds
This amounts to 28% of the ‘tax gap’, treasury report says, which Biden proposes closing by empowering IRS to pursue aggressively

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/sep/08/us-wealthiest-responsible-yearly-160bn-lost-tax-revenue

 

This is where the US and the EU must work together. I am sick and disgusted of the blatant tax evasions of the elite and global corporations. Sick to the bone. 

Dry them all out. Bahamas, Cayman Islands, Channel Islands, Switzerland, Malta or Luxembourg. Enough is enough. 

When the US, China, Germany and France work together and do serious business we could succeed (UK Tories are part of the problem). But I am just an idealistic fool. Nothing will happen. 

[Mlle. Zabzie]

19 minutes ago, Arakan said:

This is where the US and the EU must work together. I am sick and disgusted of the blatant tax evasions of the elite and global corporations. Sick to the bone. 

Dry them all out. Bahamas, Cayman Islands, Channel Islands, Switzerland, Malta or Luxembourg. Enough is enough. 

When the US, China, Germany and France work together and do serious business we could succeed (UK Tories are part of the problem). But I am just an idealistic fool. Nothing will happen. 

Wait, wait, this is apples and oranges.  

The article is referring to individual income tax.  I have thoughts on that, for sure, but a lot of going on there is that you are more likely to get hit by lightning than to be audited.  

Global corporate tax reform is a completely different animal.  I have LOTS of thoughts about that.  But the biggest thing that would need to happen is a sea-change in how we views and tax intangible assets (and how global transfer pricing - I.e., which jurisdiction in the world gets to tax a dollar of global profit of a multi national).  That is actually what the current OECD discussions are about.  

[Zorral]

7 hours ago, larrytheimp said:

I'm adding this thread to my "The Hill They Died On" Board Tour.  DM me for pricing schedule, starts at $20 US.  

Perhaps more important than Manchin, the most important consideration for the infrastructure funding bill is labor?

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/09/us/politics/biden-infrastructure-plan.html?

Quote

 

WASHINGTON — The infrastructure bill that President Biden hopes to get through Congress is supposed to create jobs and spur projects for companies like Anchor Construction, which specializes in repairing aging bridges and roadways in the nation’s capital.

But with baby boomers aging out of the work force and not enough young people to replace them, John M. Irvine, a senior vice president at Anchor, worries there will not be enough workers to hire for all those new projects.

“I’d be surprised if there’s any firm out there saying they’re ready for this,” said Mr. Irvine, whose company is hiring about a dozen skilled laborers, pipe layers and concrete finishers. If the bill passes Congress, he said, the company will most likely have to double the amount it is hiring.

“We will have to staff up,” Mr. Irvine said. “And no, there are not enough skilled workers to fill these jobs.” . . . .

 

 

[Arakan]

11 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

Wait, wait, this is apples and oranges.  

The article is referring to individual income tax.  I have thoughts on that, for sure, but a lot of going on there is that you are more likely to get hit by lightning than to be audited.  

Global corporate tax reform is a completely different animal.  I have LOTS of thoughts about that.  But the biggest thing that would need to happen is a sea-change in how we views and tax intangible assets (and how global transfer pricing - I.e., which jurisdiction in the world gets to tax a dollar of global profit of a multi national).  That is actually what the current OECD discussions are about.  

I was more talking about a philosophical paradigm shift. The way how we view tax evasion. This would then of course affect corporate taxation as well as private taxation. After all, many tax havens serve both customer types . 

It simply cannot be allowed that global corps like Amazon or Apple shift their profit around the world (and end up paying 0.5% corporate tax in Luxemburg). 

Be it private or corporate, such behavior is simply parasitic for society as a whole. 

[Mlle. Zabzie]

1 minute ago, Arakan said:

I was more talking about a philosophical paradigm shift. The way how we view tax evasion. This would then of course affect corporate taxation as well as private taxation. After all, many tax havens serve both customer types . 

It simply cannot be allowed that global corps like Amazon or Apple shift their profit around the world (and end up paying 0.5% corporate tax in Luxemburg). 

Be it private or corporate, such behavior is simply parasitic for society as a whole. 

That goes to intangible property and transfer pricing.  Historically we have accepted that profits can attach to an “entrepreneur” that owns intellectual property.  In a digital world that is kind of nonsense.  Some jurisdictions have imposed digital services taxes. That’s not necessarily the right answer either.