Lemongate and R+L=D

[Lord Lannister]

23 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

Hmm.  Yes.  

And this:

"Off in the distance, a wolf howled. The sound made her feel sad and lonely, but no less hungry"

Maybe the wolf cub misses her pack.

Not that I'm sold on this theory but Dany's vision of Robb in the House of the Undying would be less... random... if this was a thing. 

[EggBlue]

1 hour ago, Mourning Star said:

I agree, and my version will post my version of why I think Dany is the child of Rhaegar and Lyanna, little sister to Jon, here at some point!

so they had TWO secret kids?!! HOW? how many dragon heads did Rhaegar want?

 

I was starting to like this theory as I was following it  ... so some questions since it's fun..

5 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

- The whole lemongate problem (which I won't elaborate on here).

ok . alright . makes sense

5 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

- Rhaegar named his two children, Aegon & Rhaenys, after Aegon the Conqueror and sister Rhaenys, said he was "The Prince that was Promised", and that there must be one more, because "the dragon has 3 heads".  [Rhaegar is our main source for the TPTWP prophesy and seems to think that TPTWP and his 2 siblings will be a three-headed dragon of prophesy].

sure but dragons are not male or female.  so maybe rhaegar wasn't naming his children after those three heads ...after all shouldn't he have named his first born Visenya if that was the case. maybe Rhaegar just thought he needed three kids regardless of their gender.

5 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

- After Elia was declared incapable of having more children, Rhaegar went chasing after Lyanna; and, according to more ambiguous hints, maybe Ashara as well. [Possibly because he felt the need to fulfill prophesy by providing a 3rd sibling].

ok... but what are the hints that Rhaegar was after Ashara? 

5 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

- In Dany's vision in THOTU, Rhaegar seems to be looking at Dany when he says "there must be one more." [Suggesting Dany may be a third head of the dragon and/or a 3rd sibling].   

could be . 

5 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

- Aerys and Rhaella's children have a low survival rate for living past infancy or early childhood [raising the possibility that the original Danaerys may have died).

makes sense.

5 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

- Illyrio, a key player in the scheme to sell Dany to a barbarian in exchange for an army, is a dealer in Valyrian featured slave girls.

- Though we initially have the impression that Illyrio has been involved with this scheme for only a few months, he later tells Tyrion that Viserys' attempt to deflower Dany before her wedding almost spoiled "years" of planning.

the problem is that how did slavers first found Dany in Dorne and then stole her just like that?

5 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

- Dany's memories of her past are explicitly a mish-mash of real memories and Viserys' stories.  For instance, she seems to remember the flight from Dragonstone, even though even she knows she cannot really remember it, and its real source must be Viserys' stories.

sure. that's true.

5 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

- Dany remembers being punished by Viserys for imagining she could be anything other than a Targ princess.

the way I saw it he was pissed since he was still clinging to their heritage and what was stolen from their family which was why he got so angry at Dany who by wanting to be other things was letting go of their royal ancestry. but for the sake of theory it can be an explanaition.

5 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

- Loss of identity through torment and torture are themes introduced elsewhere in the book, in the case of Theon and (possibly) Jeyne Poole.  Ramsay's instruction to Theon "Remember your name.  Remember who you are."  Theon's line that he has to remember his [real] name; and his thought that Fake Arya has to remember her [fake] name.  Quaithe's repeated instruction to Dany to "Remember who you are."

exactly. cool

5 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

- On the even of Dany's wedding, Viserys is openly skeptical about her appearance before Viserys, [almost as if he is worried that she can pass as something she is not].

 

5 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

- Barristan and Jorah both think Dany takes more after Rhaegar than Aerys [she also reminds Barristan of Ashara, which is one reason I want to keep the R+L=A option open].

but Rhaegar himself was Aerys's son. so does it really tell us much if another one of Aerys's kids turn out fine?

and for Ashara... she had purple eyes which is rare ,but not among Daynes or Targeryens, and so does Dany . Barristan loved her as a woman and now that he is an old man he admires and loves Dany in another way ( a Queen or even daughter perhaps) so is it hard to see he reminisces about an old one sided love  when he sees Dany?

5 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

- What are those fragrant oils at the Western market that remind her of home?  [Are they rose oil?  Do fields of blue roses grow in the valley guarded by the ruined Tower of Joy?]

- "child of storm" from the HOTU visions, seems to fit with the daughter of Aerys and Rhaella; but it also fits with the child born at the Tower of Joy ("a storm of rose petals blew across a blood-streaked sky".

good points

5 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

- "three mounts shall you ride" from the HOTU vision.  She's already ridden a horse and a dragon.  [What will be her third mount - possibly a direwolf?].

cool

 

[Lord Lannister]

6 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

- "three mounts shall you ride" from the HOTU vision.  She's already ridden a horse and a dragon.  [What will be her third mount - possibly a direwolf?].

Khal Drogo. 

[Egged]

Dragonstone is the house in her dream, not a house in Braavos:

Cressen heading into the Great Hall: the only red doors in the story

Quote

Above, the comet blazed red and malevolent. I am too old and wise to fear such things, the maester told himself.

The doors to the Great Hall were set in the mouth of a stone dragon. He told the servants to leave him outside. It would be better to enter alone; he must not appear feeble. Leaning heavily on his cane, Cressen climbed the last few steps and hobbled beneath the gateway teeth. A pair of guardsmen opened the heavy red doors before him, unleashing a sudden blast of noise and light. Cressen stepped down into the dragon's maw.

Daenerys' dream:

Quote

"… wake the dragon …"

The door loomed before her, the red door, so close, so close, the hall was a blur around her, the cold receding behind. And now the stone was gone and she flew across the Dothraki sea, high and higher, the green rippling beneath, and all that lived and breathed fled in terror from the shadow of her wings. She could smell home, she could see it, there, just beyond that door, green fields and great stone houses and arms to keep her warm, there. She threw open the door.

Aegon's garden, on Dragonstone:

Quote

Aegon's Garden had a pleasant piney smell to it, and tall dark trees rose on every side. There were wild roses as well, and towering thorny hedges, and a boggy spot where cranberries grew.

Daenerys' vision of wooden beams with carved animal faces:

Quote

I know this room, she thought. She remembered those great wooden beams and the carved animal faces that adorned them. And there outside the window, a lemon tree! The sight of it made her heart ache with longing.

The Sept of Dragonstone

Quote

The burning gods cast a pretty light, wreathed in their robes of shifting flame, red and orange and yellow. Septon Barre had once told Davos how they'd been carved from the masts of the ships that had carried the first Targaryens from Valyria. Over the centuries, they had been painted and repainted, gilded, silvered, jeweled.

[...]

Dragonstone's sept had been where Aegon the Conqueror knelt to pray the night before he sailed. That had not saved it from the queen's men. They had overturned the altars, pulled down the statues, and smashed the stained glass with warhammers.

[...]

They were all afire now, Maid and Mother, Warrior and Smith, the Crone with her pearl eyes and the Father with his gilded beard; even the Stranger, carved to look more animal than human.

So we have the green fields (compared to Essos, Westeros is very "green"), the tall wood pillars with carved faces of animals (or at least one of them, in Dany's child mind maybe they were all animal-like), a garden, the great stone house with its red door that leads into the "dragon". The lemon tree is missing, but Elia spent time in Dragonstone, where her first child was born. Could there once have been a lemon tree, from her homeland, since removed, due to its association with the murdered princess?

Daenerys was born BEFORE the supposed "storm" which occurred as they traveled to Essos, and she has memories of her youth on Dragonstone.

The lemon tree is the misdirection, it was probably removed, so we can never find it.

[Mister Smikes]

2 hours ago, EggBlue said:

so they had TWO secret kids?!! HOW? how many dragon heads did Rhaegar want?

I would guess he wanted 3, but I guess fate intervened and killed Rhaenys.  So a fourth child (one that Rhaegar did not necessarily plan or know about) would be needed.  And I guess that was also fate intervening.

2 hours ago, EggBlue said:

sure but dragons are not male or female.  so maybe rhaegar wasn't naming his children after those three heads ...after all shouldn't he have named his first born Visenya if that was the case. maybe Rhaegar just thought he needed three kids regardless of their gender.

Well, Rhaenys was the nicer sister -- Visenya had a somewhat more sinister reputation.   So I guess it makes sense to start with "Rhaenys".    It could end up being 2 boys after that anyhow, and he'd still have to pick another name.

When Dany hears of the prophesy of the 3 headed dragon, and its association with Aegon and his sister, her first thought is "but my brothers are dead".  So she makes the sibling association as well.

2 hours ago, EggBlue said:

ok... but what are the hints that Rhaegar was after Ashara? 

Well, there's Daeron's song about the stupid lady who threw herself off some stupid tower because her stupid prince was dead, which some take as a reference to Ashara.  There's the reference to Ashara's (supposedly) stillborn daughter.  There's Dany reminding Baristan of both Rhaegar and Ashara to some extent.

2 hours ago, EggBlue said:

the problem is that how did slavers first found Dany in Dorne and then stole her just like that?

Anyone can become a slaver merely by seizing the immoral opportunity.  That's how Jorah became a slaver.  All that is necessary is for Dany to fall into the hands of the wrong person after the death of her protector.  So the girl is taken to a seaport and sold to a sea captain, bound for Pentos.  Fro instance.

2 hours ago, EggBlue said:

the way I saw it he was pissed since he was still clinging to their heritage and what was stolen from their family which was why he got so angry at Dany who by wanting to be other things was letting go of their royal ancestry. but for the sake of theory it can be an explanation.

Sure.  None of the points are slam dunks.  It is more a connect the dots sort of thing.

2 hours ago, EggBlue said:

but Rhaegar himself was Aerys's son. so does it really tell us much if another one of Aerys's kids turn out fine?

I will concede it is a weak point for this reason.  

It means a bit more to me because I suspect Aerys is not Rhaegar's dad.  But maybe I should not try people's patience with that one.

[Daeron the Daring]

10 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

Dany remembers being punished by Viserys for imagining she could be anything other than a Targ princess.

 

10 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

On the even of Dany's wedding, Viserys is openly skeptical about her appearance before Viserys, [almost as if he is worried that she can pass as something she is not].

These two don't make much sense if you and everyone else assumes Daenerys is a Targaryen princess anyway, just happens to be Rhaegar's daughter instead of Aerys'. 

[Willam Stark]

9 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

Ok.  Explain how you know this.  Because, to the best of my knowledge, the only evidence of it is people trying to force the timeline to fit R+L=J

Let's focus on Robb's birth: we know that he was conceived at Riverrun, after the Battle of the Bells who took place in early 283 AC and was born in the same year, 9 months later, which brings us to late 283 AC. Robert's Rebellion also ended in late 283 AC at the Sack of King's Landing, a bit less than one year after its beginning which means that Robb was born more a less during the end of the Rebellion. We have more infos on AGOT - Catelyn II

 

"Many men fathered bastards. Catelyn had grown up with that knowledge. It came as no surprise to her, in the first year of her marriage, to learn that Ned had fathered a child on some girl chance met on campaign. He had a man's needs, after all, and they had spent that year apart, Ned off at war in the south while she remained safe in her father's castle at Riverrun. Her thoughts were more of Robb, the infant at her breast, than of the husband she scarcely knew. He was welcome to whatever solace he might find between battles. And if his seed quickened, she expected he would see to the child's needs."

 

This give us a small window to complete the "year apart" gap, two to three months due to travel times and that:

 

"He did more than that. The Starks were not like other men. Ned brought his bastard home with him, and called him "son" for all the north to see. When the wars were over at last, and Catelyn rode to Winterfell, Jon and his wet nurse had already taken up residence."

 

Ned came back to Winterfell before Catelyn and the events at the Tower of Joy, his travel to Starfall already happened:

 

"That cut deep. Ned would not speak of the mother, not so much as a word, but a castle has no secrets, and Catelyn heard her maids repeating tales they heard from the lips of her husband's soldiers. They whispered of Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning, deadliest of the seven knights of Aerys's Kingsguard, and of how their young lord had slain him in single combat. And they told how afterward Ned had carried Ser Arthur's sword back to the beautiful young sister who awaited him in a castle called Starfall on the shores of the Summer Sea. The Lady Ashara Dayne, tall and fair, with haunting violet eyes."

 

Taking all these elements into account, Lyanna could not have died after 283.

[Mister Smikes]

8 hours ago, Daeron the Daring said:

These two don't make much sense if you and everyone else assumes Daenerys is a Targaryen princess anyway, just happens to be Rhaegar's daughter instead of Aerys'. 

Viserys does not know she is a Targaryen princess.  He thinks she is a slave girl he obtained from Illyrio.  Illyrio does not know either.  To him she is just some merchandise brought to him by some kidnapper.   Dany herself, even at the early pre-programming stage, does not know she is a princess, for the same excellent reason that Jon would not know -- because you don't tell small children secrets that could get them killed.

[Frey family reunion]

My personal preference would be for Dany just to be the daughter of base born parents, descended from bastard children of different Targaryen off shoots from the past.  

Another poster posited that Dany’s memory of the red door, is actually from the red lamp over the door of a whorehouse.  

Which could very well make sense.  Prostitutes bred to look Valyrian, bred over the generations, until the breeding does something that all of the politics and machinations of the royal line could not, which was have the proper bloodline to hatch dragons.

And we have a bunch of schemers who are willing to use Dany and to discard Dany since she is the product of nobodies, all of a sudden realize that she is much more significant than any Targaryen Princess, she is the mother of dragons.

[Hrulj]

I like this theory far more than R+L=J.

 

What I don't understand is the need for kidnappings, slavers etc? Why can't Ned come to Tower of Joy, see the baby is Valyrian and send her off to Dorne from where she is sent with Viserys to be reunited?

[Daeron the Daring]

5 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

Viserys does not know she is a Targaryen princess.  He thinks she is a slave girl he obtained from Illyrio.  Illyrio does not know either.  To him she is just some merchandise brought to him by some kidnapper.   Dany herself, even at the early pre-programming stage, does not know she is a princess, for the same excellent reason that Jon would not know -- because you don't tell small children secrets that could get them killed.

So, you're telling me random people who 'obtained' Daenerys after Willam Dustin's death saw the chance of best profit in selling a 4 year old girl into slavery for her Valyrian looks (let's just not assume she had any more value because she is a comely one, that isn't up to debate in case of someone at the age of 4), whereas they could've blackmailed Eddard Stark to pay them an amount they couldn't spend in their own lifetime? And then Eddard Stark, who supposedly had some sort of bloodrelation to this girl (since he left Willam Dustin there only for her, according to you) decided to give a damn about his own blood being sold into slavery from now onwards. (unless you claim that they ssif to him that lil Daenerys coincidentally died just when Willam Dustin died as well, which I asdume you will do) And then this actual Targaryen princess (you get it right, they sold a Targaryen princess into slavery for some coins that was maybe enough for them for a month) coincidentally ended up in Illyiro Mopatis' hands who coincidentally was scheming with Viserys, the actual Targaryen claimant living in exile? I assume this makes it all even more likely to you. 

[CassDarry]

I do like this theory, not that I dislike Jon being the tower of joy baby but it’s good to see that nothing is 100% settled just yet.

And I like to think that if Dany is Rhaegars daughter then Jon could be Asharas, which means he could be Sword of the Morning in the battle for dawn(to end the long night) and Dany is the “Prince Who Was Promised” which I find sits better with me than Jon is both or the Prince Who Was Promised and Dany is the Mad Kings Daughter who tries to burn down Kings Landing... 

 

1. Could be that Lyanna’s “promise me Ned” was to send the babe to safety. And he didn’t believe he could raise his niece with his new wife, or even didn’t want to risk her life for his crime if Robert were to find out. I like to think he gave Ashara “Dany” (could of been called Visenya) and took Ashara’s Baby as Jon. Maybe they could see as a new born covered in thick black hair indicating a Stark father.(Brandon or Ned have both been put forward before) Dany could of the. Been raised at Starfall but Ashara couldn’t love the new baby she longed for her own and killed herself. Prince oberyn who signed a contract(supposedly) with Willem Darry in witness of the Sealord or Braavos, could of given the now orphaned child to Darry and in turn Viserys.

2. To be honest this is the first I’ve seen of Willam Dustin and Willem Darry, which is a good link and possibility. I imagine he was wounded and contracted his “wasting sickness”. Howland maybe wasn’t suited for the dry mountains of Dorne? Or as Ser Arthur would of killed Ned if not for Howland maybe his played a different part.

3. I imagine this could of been the original “Dany” but who died, and this story was not true, or misremembered, or did happen but the child later died as most of Aerys & Rhaella spawn did. Then when presented with a new Targaryen princess, it was decided better she assumed the Dany name and second in line for the throne.

4. If Viserys knew maybe it is truly why he is abusive towards her as he knows she is the actual heir. Also we don’t get Visery’s POV so we don’t get his true memory or feelings towards Dany.

[Mister Smikes]

15 hours ago, Willam Stark said:

Let's focus on Robb's birth: we know that he was conceived at Riverrun, after the Battle of the Bells who took place in early 283 AC and was born in the same year, 9 months later, which brings us to late 283 AC. Robert's Rebellion also ended in late 283 AC at the Sack of King's Landing, a bit less than one year after its beginning which means that Robb was born more a less during the end of the Rebellion. We have more infos on AGOT - Catelyn II

"Many men fathered bastards. Catelyn had grown up with that knowledge. It came as no surprise to her, in the first year of her marriage, to learn that Ned had fathered a child on some girl chance met on campaign. He had a man's needs, after all, and they had spent that year apart, Ned off at war in the south while she remained safe in her father's castle at Riverrun. Her thoughts were more of Robb, the infant at her breast, than of the husband she scarcely knew. He was welcome to whatever solace he might find between battles. And if his seed quickened, she expected he would see to the child's needs."

This give us a small window to complete the "year apart" gap, two to three months due to travel times and that:

"He did more than that. The Starks were not like other men. Ned brought his bastard home with him, and called him "son" for all the north to see. When the wars were over at last, and Catelyn rode to Winterfell, Jon and his wet nurse had already taken up residence."

Ned came back to Winterfell before Catelyn and the events at the Tower of Joy, his travel to Starfall already happened:

"That cut deep. Ned would not speak of the mother, not so much as a word, but a castle has no secrets, and Catelyn heard her maids repeating tales they heard from the lips of her husband's soldiers. They whispered of Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning, deadliest of the seven knights of Aerys's Kingsguard, and of how their young lord had slain him in single combat. And they told how afterward Ned had carried Ser Arthur's sword back to the beautiful young sister who awaited him in a castle called Starfall on the shores of the Summer Sea. The Lady Ashara Dayne, tall and fair, with haunting violet eyes."

Taking all these elements into account, Lyanna could not have died after 283.

You seem to be assuming that Ned and Cat spent 1 year, and only 1 year, apart.  But that's not what the text says. Cat is merely describing her initial reaction on learning that Ned had sired a bastard on campaign; and contrasting it with her (later) reaction upon learning that Ned had brought his bastard home to Winterfell.  The words "they had spent that year apart" is part of that initial reaction, and is describing her perspective at a time when "that year" is not even quite over yet (though Robb has already been born, and maybe close to 3 months old already for all I know), and Ned has not even returned yet.  The past-perfect tense ("had spent") merely looks back from the moment that she first heard the news.  The words "that year" merely refers to the first year of their marriage, up to the point where she hears the news, and may more or less coincide with the year 283.  This says nothing about how soon thereafter Ned returned.

That seems to answer your point, as far as I can see.  Let me know if I have missed something.

BTW, and I don't know if this helps or hurts your point, but  you cite no source for your claim that the Battle of the Bells occurred in early 283.  The books themselves have Jon Con think, in 300, that 17 years have come and gone since the Battle and the Bells.  If he means this literally, those 17 years can only be 283 through 299 inclusive.   Which would place the Battle of the Bells in (late) 282.  (The marriage could still be in early 283, maybe even on New Years Day).

Also, we are not talking about trying to pass a 9 month old as a newborn here.  Even if you could prove that (f)Dany would have to be 9 months older than (r)Dany under some version of a Rhaegar = Dany's Dad theory, it might not matter if one is 5 and the other is 5 and 9 months at the time of the imposture is first attempted; and still less does it matter if a supposed 13 year old is really 14 at the time of her wedding.

 

[asongofheresy]

On 10/25/2021 at 10:44 PM, Willam Stark said:

Huge crackpot indeed, Daenerys was born in 284, 9 months after the Sack of King's Landing which took place in late 283 and Lyanna died during this period. Way too late.

 You are condensing the timeline to a single year for the entire Rebellion forgetting so many things happen. You have to create a sufficient time for Sack of KL to happen, Ned and Robert has argument, Ned goes to Storms End and lifts the siege, he continues to search for Lyanna and ends up at ToJ, the fight with KL happens and he breaks down the tower, makes cairns for the dead, goes to Starfall to give Ashara the sword of Arthur, and presumably reuines with Robert the share the news of Lyanna's death, and he later goes to Winterfell before giving horse of Willam to Barbrey. You need to include the year of 284 to the Rebellion timeline because its only after learning death of Lyanna that Jon Arryn persuade Robert to marry Cersei in 285. 

[Daeron the Daring]

57 minutes ago, asongofheresy said:

You have to create a sufficient time for Sack of KL to happen

A day. A couple of days at best. 

58 minutes ago, asongofheresy said:

Ned and Robert has argument,

Minutes. An hour at best. 

58 minutes ago, asongofheresy said:

Ned goes to Storms End

Sure. But Storm's End is relatively close to King's Landing. About as close as Harrenhall. 

1 hour ago, asongofheresy said:

and lifts the siege,

Hours. A day at best would do. 

1 hour ago, asongofheresy said:

he continues to search for Lyanna and ends up at ToJ

He is told at Storm's End where Lyanna is/might be. There is no search, but directly heading towards the Prince's Pass. It depends on how much after he arrived was he told where he can find his sister. I doubt he wasted a second afterwards. 

1 hour ago, asongofheresy said:

the fight with KL happens

Minutes. But let's give it an entire hour, since I'm generous.

1 hour ago, asongofheresy said:

and he breaks down the tower

Depends on interpretation. He might as well just had it torn down by others, who didn't even have to be there while the KG and Lyanna did, andgiven that he was in a hurry not only because he had a journey to Starfall, but he just aquired a newborn baby, I doubt he did it himself. 

1 hour ago, asongofheresy said:

makes cairns for the dead

A day, assuming he had help with it. If he didn't, then this all would arguably take too much time to fit any timeline. 

Note that I'm not against any kind of timelines, but the things people bring up here have no weight on the actual timeline. Nor do I agree with the person you are arguing against. But it's been said and it is true that the timeline perfectly fits with what George said: That Daenerys was born 8-9 months after Jon. Especially because Lyanna didn't have to give birth the day Ned arrived, nor is it specified that Rhaella left King's Landing the day Daenerys was conceived. 

[asongofheresy]

25 minutes ago, Daeron the Daring said:

A day. A couple of days at best. 

Minutes. An hour at best. 

Sure. But Storm's End is relatively close to King's Landing. About as close as Harrenhall. 

Hours. A day at best would do. 

He is told at Storm's End where Lyanna is/might be. There is no search, but directly heading towards the Prince's Pass. It depends on how much after he arrived was he told where he can find his sister. I doubt he wasted a second afterwards. 

Minutes. But let's give it an entire hour, since I'm generous.

Depends on interpretation. He might as well just had it torn down by others, who didn't even have to be there while the KG and Lyanna did, andgiven that he was in a hurry not only because he had a journey to Starfall, but he just aquired a newborn baby, I doubt he did it himself. 

A day, assuming he had help with it. If he didn't, then this all would arguably take too much time to fit any timeline. 

Note that I'm not against any kind of timelines, but the things people bring up here have no weight on the actual timeline. Nor do I agree with the person you are arguing against. But it's been said and it is true that the timeline perfectly fits with what George said: That Daenerys was born 8-9 months after Jon. Especially because Lyanna didn't have to give birth the day Ned arrived, nor is it specified that Rhaella left King's Landing the day Daenerys was conceived. 

The travel time between those places isn't included in your estimations, you also don't take into the account of Robert being wounded at the trident and arriving to KL later to he presented by bodies of Elia and children, who in Storms End even know about where Lyanna and Rhaegar was? That information has to come from Dorne, especially if the Dornish army at Prince's Pass saw 3 Kings Guard at an abandoned tower. I still think 284 is needed to be included at the events of the Rebellion so the timeline wouldn't be restricted. 

[Willam Stark]

16 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

You seem to be assuming that Ned and Cat spent 1 year, and only 1 year, apart.

No I'm saying that Ned and Cat spent their first year of marriage apart, and the followings events happened during that year of separation: The Sack of King's Landing which has ended the Rebellion, Robb's birth, Jon's birth, The Battle at the ToJ, Lyanna's death, roadtrip to Starfall and Ned's travel back to Winterfell with Jon. All of that before Catelyn arrives at Winterfell with Robb, it is clearly stated in the text, I'm only summarizing the informations provided by Catelyn's PoV.

16 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

BTW, and I don't know if this helps or hurts your point, but  you cite no source for your claim that the Battle of the Bells occurred in early 283.

Travel times. The Rebellion has started in late 282, Ned needed quite some time to cross the Mountains of the Moon to the Fingers, find a fisherman to carry him across the Bite, ride to Winterfell, call his banners, march south to join Hoster Tully's and Jon Arryn's forces then rescue Robert at the Stoney Sept where the Battle of the Bells occured. He couldn't have done it before early 283.

16 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

The books themselves have Jon Con think, in 300, that 17 years have come and gone since the Battle and the Bells.  If he means this literally, those 17 years can only be 283 through 299 inclusive.

300-17=283

Learn your maths dude, it's embarrassing.

16 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

Also, we are not talking about trying to pass a 9 month old as a newborn here.  Even if you could prove that (f)Dany would have to be 9 months older than (r)Dany under some version of a Rhaegar = Dany's Dad theory, it might not matter if one is 5 and the other is 5 and 9 months at the time of the imposture is first attempted; and still less does it matter if a supposed 13 year old is really 14 at the time of her wedding.

You're the one who assume there is a fDany in the first place, not me.

I don't have to prove anything about a character who doesn't exist, as far as I'm concerned.

[Mister Smikes]

2 hours ago, Willam Stark said:

No I'm saying that Ned and Cat spent their first year of marriage apart, and the followings events happened during that year of separation: The Sack of King's Landing which has ended the Rebellion, Robb's birth, Jon's birth, The Battle at the ToJ, Lyanna's death, roadtrip to Starfall and Ned's travel back to Winterfell with Jon. All of that before Catelyn arrives at Winterfell with Robb, it is clearly stated in the text, I'm only summarizing the informations provided by Catelyn's PoV.

 

The only thing clearly established to have happened, in the first year of Catelyn's marriage is that Robb was born, and then, while she had a baby at the breast, she learned, probably via letter, that Ned had sired a child on campaign, and that she found that understandable at the time, since they had spent that prior year apart.

Later, maybe much later, when Robb was old enough to travel, she traveled to Winterfell to join Ned and learned, only then, that Ned had actually brought his bastard home with him.  At this point, she becomes less understanding about Jon.

The Lifting of the Siege, the Tower of Joy incident, the road to Starfall, and the return to Winterfell with Jon all occurred before the second event.  But it is never said they happened before the first.

Your timeline has Catelyn making a long and arduous land journey with a 2-3 month old child at the breast, which strikes me as unlikely.  

2 hours ago, Willam Stark said:

Travel times. The Rebellion has started in late 282, Ned needed quite some time to cross the Mountains of the Moon to the Fingers, find a fisherman to carry him across the Bite, ride to Winterfell, call his banners, march south to join Hoster Tully's and Jon Arryn's forces then rescue Robert at the Stoney Sept where the Battle of the Bells occured. He couldn't have done it before early 283.

300-17=283

Learn your maths dude, it's embarrassing.

The problem is not my math, but your reading comprehension.  The text does not say the Battle of the Bells happened 17 years ago.  What it says is that SINCE the Battle of the Bells occurred, 17 years started AND ended.  That's 17 new years days with completed years following them.  These 17 completed years can only have been 283, 284, 285, 286, 287, 288, 289, 290, 291, 292, 293, 294, 295, 296, 297, 298, and 299.  They cannot have included 300 since that would not be complete year, and they cannot have included 282 since that would not be a complete year.  Your math has led you astray in this instance, since you don't know how to apply it, so I suggest in this case you merely count the completed years.  

 

[Willam Stark]

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

The only thing clearly established to have happened, in the first year of Catelyn's marriage is that Robb was born, and then, while she had a baby at the breast, she learned, probably via letter, that Ned had sired a child on campaign, and that she found that understandable at the time, since they had spent that prior year apart.

We learn much more than that in Catelyn PoV: they have been separated during their first year of marriage, Ned went to war while she remained at Riverrun, gave birth to Robb there, rode to Winterfell after the war ended and met Ned there with Jon and his wet-nurse. In Eddard PoV we've learned that the war has lasted "close a year" which means less than a year. There is some time left to complete the year apart, but not that much, taking into account the travel times it can't be more than 3 months. Back to Catelyn PoV, she has heard the gossip about the events of the ToJ and Ned's trip to Starfall, meaning that they have already happened.

 

2 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

The Lifting of the Siege, the Tower of Joy incident, the road to Starfall, and the return to Winterfell with Jon all occurred before the second event.  But it is never said they happened before the first.

Those events occured after the war which has lasted (again) less than a year, since Ned and Catelyn have spent the first year of their marriage apart, they couldn't have happened after this year.

2 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

Your timeline has Catelyn making a long and arduous land journey with a 2-3 month old child at the breast, which strikes me as unlikely.  

Impossible on horseback, but possible with a carriage and guess what, they do exist in-universe:

 

"Yet Robert was Ned's king now, and not just a friend, so he said only, "Your Grace. Winterfell is yours."

By then the others were dismounting as well, and grooms were coming forward for their mounts. Robert's queen, Cersei Lannister, entered on foot with her younger children. The wheelhouse in which they had ridden, a huge double-decked carriage of oiled oak and gilded metal pulled by forty heavy draft horses, was too wide to pass through the castle gate. Ned knelt in the snow to kiss the queen's ring, while Robert embraced Catelyn like a long-lost sister. Then the children had been brought forward, introduced, and approved of by both sides." (AGOT, Eddard I)

 

Besides, Jon who is (officially) younger than Robb and also at breast made it to Winterfell in a far longer journey, there is absolutely no reason to think that it would be impossible for Robb to do the same.

2 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

The problem is not my math, but your reading comprehension.

We have two problems now: your maths and YOUR reading comprehension. Don't put that on me when you say what it follows

2 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

The text does not say the Battle of the Bells happened 17 years ago.

Yes it does, you just didn't understand that "happened" has the same meaning as "come and gone" in this context.

"Seventeen years had come and gone since the Battle of the Bells <...>" (ADWD, The Lost Lord)

3 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

That's 17 new years days with completed years following them.

No it's the difference between the moment the Battle of the Bells occured to the moment he is thinking about the said battle, expressed in terms of years. The "completed years" is irrelevant, you are just desperate.

3 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

These 17 completed years can only have been 283, 284, 285, 286, 287, 288, 289, 290, 291, 292, 293, 294, 295, 296, 297, 298, and 299.

300-17=283

Learn your maths, it's embarrassing.

3 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

Your math has led you astray in this instance, since you don't know how to apply it, so I suggest in this case you merely count the completed years.  

No thanks.

[Mister Smikes]

1 hour ago, Willam Stark said:

We learn much more than that in Catelyn PoV: they have been separated during their first year of marriage, Ned went to war while she remained at Riverrun, gave birth to Robb there,

This happened in the first year of their marriage

Quote

rode to Winterfell after the war ended and met Ned there with Jon and his wet-nurse.

This did not happen in the first year of their marriage.  At least, the text certainly does not say so.

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In Eddard PoV we've learned that the war has lasted "close a year" which means less than a year.

Eddard is thinking back the time just before the sack of King's Landing, and thinking that at that time, the war had raged "close to a year".  The Sack, and the lifting of the Siege both take place after that.  And the TOJ incident takes place some time after that. 

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Impossible on horseback, but possible with a carriage and guess what, they do exist in-universe:

Or, you know, they could just wait until the baby is a little older.

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Yes it does, you just didn't understand that "happened" has the same meaning as "come and gone" in this context.

Maybe.  If that's what GRRM means.  

But more literally, a "year come" means New Years Day and that same year "gone" means the following New Years Eve.

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"Seventeen years had come and gone since the Battle of the Bells <...>" (ADWD, The Lost Lord)

No it's the difference between the moment the Battle of the Bells occured to the moment he is thinking about the said battle, expressed in terms of years. The "completed years" is irrelevant, you are just desperate.

Desperate for what?  How does this even help me?    At worst, I am maybe being "too literal".  But I am following the literal words.

"It happened 2 days ago" and "Two days have come and gone since it happened" do not (necessarily) mean the same thing.   Years do not traditionally come and go at the moments battles happen to occur.  They come and go at times set by tradition, New Years Day and New Years Eve. 

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300-17=283

2021 -2 = 2019.  Nonetheless there is only one year that "comes and goes" between June 2019 and June 2021, and that year is the year 2020.

One could mean (for instance) that 2 years measured from June to June have come and gone.  And I'm not totally rejecting that possibility.   But at the very least it is ambiguous.   Years (other than "fiscal years") do not traditionally "come" and "go" in June.