"Only 500 pages to go" for Winds of Winter

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

On 4/24/2023 at 1:26 PM, butterweedstrover said:

ASOS was a fun book to read but it derailed the story by making the narrative spread out from the confines of the war for the throne. 

We know from the 1993 outline that the struggle for the throne was always supposed to be just the first act of the story, with the other two being Dany’s invasion and the ultimate fight against the Others. 

So the ideas themselves were always there, but I do agree that GRRM is struggling to convert these ideas into a story, especially about the Others, since we have seen very little of them even though we’re five books in.

Edited April 28, 2023 by Takiedevushkikakzvezdy

[butterweedstrover]

3 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

We know from the 1993 outline that the struggle for the throne was always supposed to be just the first act of the story, with the other two being Dany’s invasion and the ultimate fight against the Others. 

So the ideas themselves were always there, but I do agree that GRRM is struggling to convert these ideas into a story, especially about the Others, since we have seen very little of them even though we’re five books in.

ASOS, AFFC, and ADWD don't really do anything to build up to either of those plot points (foreshadowing doesn't count). They're by and large interested in lifestyle and political management.  

Also, is it just me or is your name getting longer?

[csuszka1948]

11 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

We know from the 1993 outline that the struggle for the throne was always supposed to be just the first act of the story, with the other two being Dany’s invasion and the ultimate fight against the Others. 

So the ideas themselves were always there, but I do agree that GRRM is struggling to convert these ideas into a story, especially about the Others, since we have seen very little of them even though we’re five books in.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

His plans have changed. With 2 books left and Dany far away from Westeros, she cannot really invade before the Long Night begins.

I also think the part about the Others is intentional.

After the Wall falls (probably first half of TWOW), they will be able to appear in every place where it is cold enough during the night, reanimating corpses and make a shocking entry to the main story. Since at the end of ADWD it was snowing in King's Landing, this will encompass every area north to the Reach and the Stormlands.

It won't be an army of dead man bearing down on Winterfell while the rest of Westeros is engaged in political squabbling, they will appear almost everywhere and slowly but surely disrupt the normal course of life, with POV characters facing them one by one.

Ar first, the stories about the dead coming to life during the night will be dismissed everywhere south of the Neck as rumors, but as time passes it will be harder and harder to deny it and it will slowly dawn on people that this is real. 

I expect that at the end of TWOW some sort of misguided ritual (most likely Stannis burning Shireen at the Nightfort) is going to result in darkness ascending over the entire continent and the Long Night truly will begin.

 

Of course, this is just my guess, but certainly makes more sense than only the North being affected and the Others leading one big army.

Edited April 29, 2023 by csuszka1948

[csuszka1948]

On 4/24/2023 at 12:26 PM, butterweedstrover said:

Dude, are you serious? 

The reason we're not getting the book is because Martin has no clear direction for his story that is satisfying or original. 

You're right the problem wasn't the five year skip, the problem started long before then. ASOS was a fun book to read but it derailed the story by making the narrative spread out from the confines of the war for the throne. 

It wasn't about a battle for succession anymore, it was about random characters and their livelihoods touching on historical, religious, and magical origins. In structure it became more akin to War & Peace but unlike War & Peace it didn't have a clear idea of what it wanted to say. 

Where do you go after ASOS? There is nowhere to go, Arya becoming an assassin, Bran a magician, Sansa a politican, Jon a leader, etc. aren't plot devices meant to execute a specific narrative purpose, but meanderings about a lifestyle and moral beliefs. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The story is not about succession wars, but characters and the Starks always meant to spread out and go on separate heroes' journeys. It's title it not 'Game of Thrones' (that's only the first book), but Song of Ice and Fire and the magic aspects of it are clearly important. It is character-driven and not a plot-driven.

From his interviews it's clear he has planned out most the journey of the main 6 characters and their ending, the difficulty is making it work when they intersect with each other and everything else.

He doesn't finish the series because

1. He doesn't have a very strong drive to write it (compared to his other stories and activities) or in worst case he is disinterested (although if that's the case he should admit it)

2. He has plenty of other projects to take part in. He has always wanted to be a screenwriter and now he finally has the opportunity to live out his dream.

3. He has to tie everything together in a way he feels it organic and he is a perfectionist. For example, he wrote 3 completely different version of Quentyn (a minor character) arriving at Meereen. 

4. He is a gardener, so he always feels a desire to expand the story while having difficulty bringing everything together. (I think he probably should ask for someone else's help in this if he wants to finish the story)

5. TWOW will be the most 'magic-heavy' book and it's very difficult and time-consuming to write magic well

 

I believe we can realistically expect the book to be released in this decade.

I think it will actually advance the plot significantly more than the past 2 books and will have many twists so may become a second favorite after ASOS.

However, I don't think GRRM will get to the point he wants in the story and would still need 2 books to finish it (but this time really two books and not extremely long ones), but these books will probably won't get released before he dies.

Edited April 29, 2023 by csuszka1948

[csuszka1948]

On 1/15/2023 at 4:58 PM, butterweedstrover said:

Instead, due to the poor reception, it has become the default position by fans to assume Cersei (a major character) will be replaced as the central antagonist by some non-POV tertiary figure invented late in the game rather than him just being another literary tool to position Dany/Cersei into their inevitable conflict.   

 

 

 

 

 

Or, perhaps, Sansa will marry Aegon, bring Cersei down and she will be pitted against Daenerys in the Second Dance of Dragons, with Dany viewed as an antagonist by most POV characters in Westeros (but not necessarily by the readers). Or, perhaps, everyone will be concentrated on defeating the Long Night by the time Dany arrives at the beginning of ADOS.

 

Cersei stands no chance whatsoever against Dany. She has been humiliated during her walk of shame, and all support she would have as queen are the Lannisters who maybe have 10-15 thousand soldiers left and with the 2nd RW that number will vane. In contrast, Dany has a good claim to the Throne, is going to have a large army of dothraki, unsullied, and sellswords and I think the Vale and the Riverlords would back her against the Lannisters.

Maggy's prophecy also says that Cersei will watch her 3 children die, drown in tears and then the valonquar will strangle her. That means she won't get to gloriously rule after Myrcella is dead.

 

I agree that the original plan after finishing ASOS was probably a Dany vs Cersei (as Regent) conflict but at that time he thought Dany will arrive to Westeros in the 4th book, not the last one. 

He changed his plans after scrapping the 5 year gap, and that's when Maggy's prophecy and perhaps even Young Griff (I am not sure about it) was introduced. 

 

Edited April 29, 2023 by csuszka1948

[SeanF]

2 hours ago, csuszka1948 said:

His plans have changed. With 2 books left and Dany far away from Westeros, she cannot really invade before the Long Night begins.

I also think the part about the Others is intentional.

After the Wall falls (probably first half of TWOW), they will be able to appear in every place where it is cold enough during the night, reanimating corpses and make a shocking entry to the story. Since at the end of ADWD it was snowing in King's Landing, this will encompass every area north to the Reach and the Stormlands.

It won't be an army of dead man bearing down on Winterfell while the rest of Westeros is engaged in political squabbling, they will appear almost everywhere and slowly but surely disrupt the normal course of life.

Ar first, the stories about the dead coming to life during the night will be dismissed everywhere south of the Neck as rumors, but as time passes it will be harder and harder to deny it and it will slowly dawn on people that this is real. 

I expect that at the end of TWOW some sort of misguided ritual (most likely Stannis burning Shireen at the Nightfort) is going result in darkness ascending over the entire continent and the Long Night truly will begin.

 

Of course, this is just my guess, but certainly makes more sense than only the North being affected and the Others leading one big army.

Every graveyard is full of recruits for the Others.

[csuszka1948]

On 4/29/2023 at 4:30 AM, SeanF said:

Every graveyard is full of recruits for the Others.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes, it's a disturbing thought. However, it's important to note that within a few years, bodies in graves decompose into skeletons which cannot be raised as wights, so the number of bodies they can raise from them is fairly limited:

"If a body were buried illegally in a shallow grave less than 2ft deep, the decomposition rate is only 18 months to three years. That's banking on disturbance by small mammals and insects. Whereas, with a proper burial, with the coffin deep in the ground, the decomposition rate is much slower. The ground conditions affect the decomposition rate. If the coffin is sealed in a very wet, heavy clay ground, the body tends to last longer because the air is not getting to the deceased. If the ground is light, dry soil, decomposition is quicker. Generally speaking, a body takes 10 or 15 years to decompose to a skeleton."

 

Therefore, I am not sure that's the main tactics they will be employing, using the human war to mask their presence might suit them better at the beginning to avoid organized resistance.

The one big weakness of the Others is that during the day they disappear and the wights become inactive. If they led armies of wights as in the show, these could be burned while the sun is shining. 

Edited April 30, 2023 by csuszka1948

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

14 hours ago, csuszka1948 said:

His plans have changed.

I don't think the overarching plans have changed, GRRM has even kept all three book titles from his original trilogy - A Game of Thrones, A Dance with Dragons, and The Winds of Winter. It's just that he has put in many different subplots in between the three big story arcs.

[csuszka1948]

16 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

I don't think the overarching plans have changed, GRRM has even kept all three book titles from his original trilogy - A Game of Thrones, A Dance with Dragons, and The Winds of Winter. It's just that he has put in many different subplots in between the three big story arcs.

 

 

 

Dany didn't invade Westeros in the Dance with Dragons, so his plans have definitely changed. She will only arrive at the beginning of ADOS (or end of TWOW) - if she arrives at all-, so her arrival will coincide with the Long Night.

There are other huge differences compared to the original outline. Bran was supposed to be King at the end of ADWD when the Others invaded, and they were supposed to be defeated in a big battle. I don't think either of these will happen - Bran will be only be King at the end and the Long Night will be probably ended differently.

Edited April 29, 2023 by csuszka1948

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

2 hours ago, csuszka1948 said:

There are other huge differences compared to the original outline. Bran was supposed to be King at the end of ADWD when the Others invaded, and they were supposed to be defeated in a big battle. I don't think either of these will happen - Bran will be only be King at the end and the Long Night will be probably ended differently.

Sure, but I think that Dany's invasion and the Long Night are very much still in play.

[sifth]

1 hour ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Sure, but I think that Dany's invasion and the Long Night are very much still in play.

If so they're both a long ways off. Dany is nowhere near Westeros, when last we saw her and The Others haven't done anything, since the beginning of A Storm of Swords.

[Jekse]

GRRM has too many distractions, what with the new shows and him having to constantly be in contact with the showrunners for HotD S2 and D&E, let alone him going off and working on Wild Cards. The story getting bloated and convoluted really isn't such a big problem. We saw during COVID that he was still able to make great strides with tWoW, in spite of the story's difficulty. It's just that GRRM focuses too much on other projects. 

For many years I used to be optimistic about Winds' future, but after the past year of blog post I'm pretty confident that we will never see it, at least not from GRRM. 

Edited April 30, 2023 by Jekse

[Cas Stark]

1 hour ago, Jekse said:

GRRM has too many distractions, what with the new shows and him having to constantly be in contact with the showrunners for HotD S2 and D&E, let alone him going off and working on Wild Cards. The story getting bloated and convoluted really isn't such a big problem. We saw during COVID that he was still able to make great strides with tWoW, in spite of the story's difficulty. It's just that GRRM focuses too much on other projects. 

For many years I used to be optimistic about Winds' future, but after the past year of blog post I'm pretty confident that we will never see it, at least not from GRRM. 

I agree with this.  I always, until the last few years, assumed that Winds would eventually come out...it would be in terms of writing more like Dance than the first three books, and I might be disappointed in where things went.  Then for a long time I veered between thinking it was slightly more or less likely that he would finish it.   Now, even with his five hundred pages to go statement of a few months ago...I lean more toward he will never finish it.  If he could not finish it during the lock down when all of his distractions were eliminated, the odds he finishes now or ever are much reduced.  Spring, forget it.  It will never happen.  

[csuszka1948]

I think it's impossible to give even slightly accurate predictions.

As far as I remember, he finished the last third of Dance within less than a year. If he gets a similar 'streak' for the last quarter of Winds, we could get it within 2-3 years.

I am not saying this will happen, just it's far from impossible. 

[sifth]

41 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

I think it's impossible to give even slightly accurate predictions.

As far as I remember, he finished the last third of Dance within less than a year. If he gets a similar 'streak' for the last quarter of Winds, we could get it within 2-3 years.

I am not saying this will happen, just it's far from impossible. 

Ohh GRRM was in really good spirits in early 2011. Nearly every week he would post about finishing a chapter. 

Edited April 30, 2023 by sifth

[csuszka1948]

52 minutes ago, sifth said:

Ohh GRRM was in really good spirits in early 2011. Nearly every week he would post about finishing a chapter. 

 

Yes, his tone is very far from this now and he is involved in countless other projects.

I am just saying that GRRM isn't a commercial writer, he is more of an artist and it's difficult to predict whether he will get 'inspired' and finish the remaining 20-25 chapters within a short amount of time or not. 

I personally think it's likely that TWOW will get released, but ADOS won't (at least not until he dies, after that it's an open question).

[Werthead]

In the 1993 outline itself, GRRM baldly states that he hates outlines and to take it with a grain of salt and everything will change (and about 90% of the plot points and character arcs identified in the outline went out the window long ago, in many cases before AGoT itself was done).

The 1993 outline is interesting and maybe the odd idea from it has remained constant to the present day, but most of it, from the big picture stuff to small details, is toast.

[sifth]

4 hours ago, Werthead said:

In the 1993 outline itself, GRRM baldly states that he hates outlines and to take it with a grain of salt and everything will change (and about 90% of the plot points and character arcs identified in the outline went out the window long ago, in many cases before AGoT itself was done).

The 1993 outline is interesting and maybe the odd idea from it has remained constant to the present day, but most of it, from the big picture stuff to small details, is toast.

I mean most of them still happen, they were just tweaked and happen in different places in the story. Dany still finds her dragon eggs and marries Drogo in both versions, it's only changed from Dany being a sex slave, to a loving marriage. Jon still joins the nights watch in both versions, and becomes Lord Commander, it just happens much slower in the version of the story we got. Ned still gets killed. The Red Wedding still happens, only much later in the story. If anything it's the Lannisters who had the most changes from the Pilot draft and the final version. Tyrion and Jamie were basically entirely different characters; Jamie basically being the main villain of the story and Tyrion not being a dwarf and in love with Arya.

90% of the stuff in that outline not happening is a bit of a stretch. More like 65% of the outline is different, from what we got in the final product.

Edited May 1, 2023 by sifth

[The Bard of Banefort]

59 minutes ago, sifth said:

I mean most of them still happen, they were just tweaked and happen in different places in the story. Dany still finds her dragon eggs and marries Drogo in both versions, it's only changed from Dany being a sex slave, to a loving marriage. Jon still joins the nights watch in both versions, and becomes Lord Commander, it just happens much slower in the version of the story we got. Ned still gets killed. The Red Wedding still happens, only much later in the story. If anything it's the Lasters who've had the most changes from the Pilot draft and the final version. Tyrion and Jamie were basically entirely different characters; Jamie basically being the main villain of the story and Tyrion not being a dwarf and in love with Arya.

90% of the stuff in that outline not happening is a bit of a stretch. More like 65% of the outline is different, from what we got in the final product.

Yep. Sansa still “chooses” Joffrey and regrets it, she just doesn’t marry him in the final version. Drogo still kills Viserys, Tyrion still has a falling out with Jaime, Theon burns Winterfell instead of Tyrion, etc. The love triangle will probably still happen, just with Arya swapped out for Dany. And the part that was blacked out—which was the first time King Bran came up after internet sleuths found a way to decipher parts of it—is probably still part of the plan. Even Catelyn, who isn’t killed by the Others, is still magically resurrected as a zombie.

Edited May 1, 2023 by The Bard of Banefort

[butterweedstrover]

Fundamentally things can’t change even if he wanted them to. 

Dany has to invade Westeros or else her plot will serve no purpose. Arya has to return and take revenge or else her training arc would be pointless. Bran has to become king or else the magical powers will become irrelevant. And Sansa has to rule Winterfell or else her political accumulation would be a dead end. 

Im using synonyms but as much as Martin might hate where things are going he has spent (wasted IMO) too much page count for it to turn up as nothing. 
 

I know wert mentioned his gardening style, but the gardening doesn’t seem able to alter the roots laid in the ground. He can make the pathway more long winded, add more ornamentations, but no amount of watering will change what he’s stuck with. 
 

Of these major plot points only Arya’s sounds boring, and maybe Jon. He should just have fun with the rest and give up on making this some untouchable masterpiece.  

The show spoiled the idea but making Sansa into a political genius, Bran into a god king, and Dany into an evil lunatic could be fun. He just has to make it fun by stop pretending as if there is some overall meaning behind a cripple becoming a mind worm or a liberator becoming a psychopath or a victim of sexual abuse becoming a cold political slayer. 

I mean it’s all happens in real life so don’t dwell on it too much, just give us the shlock.

Edited May 2, 2023 by butterweedstrover