Why Varys Didn't Swap Rhaenys?

[Corvo the Crow]

I mean, finding a Dornish looking 3 year old would've been much easier than finding a few months old Valyrian baby with purple eyes. Obviously it may not be as easy as introducing a Valyrian boy 15 years after the events and saying "so hey ummm... I totally swapped the babies, like 15 years ago, and this is definitely Rhaegar's son and not just some random Valyrian kid that anyone with some coin may have bought from the pillow houses of Lys, and definitely not a Blackfyre pretender" and claiming he is in fact Aegon son of Rhaegar of the clan Targaryen but would still be easier than finding a Valyrian baby. So why didn't he swap her as well?

[Loose Bolt]

I assume that most mothers won't be very happy if some very shady person steal their babies. So I think that Elia did not allow Varys take either Rhaenys or Aegon. Or I assume that both of her children died in Red Keep.

[Angel Eyes]

7 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

I mean, finding a Dornish looking 3 year old would've been much easier than finding a few months old Valyrian baby with purple eyes. Obviously it may not be as easy as introducing a Valyrian boy 15 years after the events and saying "so hey ummm... I totally swapped the babies, like 15 years ago, and this is definitely Rhaegar's son and not just some random Valyrian kid that anyone with some coin may have bought from the pillow houses of Lys, and definitely not a Blackfyre pretender" and claiming he is in fact Aegon son of Rhaegar of the clan Targaryen but would still be easier than finding a Valyrian baby. So why didn't he swap her as well?

My guess is that Rhaenys, at three years old, was too familiar for the staff to pull off such a deception.

[Skahaz mo Kandaq]

None of the three royals were swapped.  Elia, Aegon, and Rhaenys died during the sack of King's Landing.  Varys was telling the story for the benefit of the little birds who were present during Kevan's last moments.  

[EggBlue]

so , first of all , let me just put it out there , I think there's a very good chance that YG is actually Aegon . in fact , if the story doesn't reveal clearly that he's not Aegon , I'm ready to call all Blackfyre theories bunker. so with that said , let's take a look at why of it . 

1. people in Kingslanding : let's once and for all agree that Kingslanding is pretty much a multiracial society . but logically , most people there are Andals . however , people of Valyrian heritage cannot by any means be scarce there . perhaps not as many as in Dragonstone , but with 300 years of Targaryens , Velaryons and Celtigars having power there and all of their Dragonseeds and Valyrian descendants , it's fair to assume finding Valyrian kids is not all that hard in Kingslanding . especially, by looking at this line in twoiaf claiming that the last Targaryen , may have been even more active than Bobby B, leaving bastards all over the place :

Quote

Some say he had as many mistresses as his ancestor Aegon the Unworthy (a most unlikely assertion given all we know of that monarch). Unlike Aegon IV, however, Aerys II always seemed to lose interest in his lovers quickly. Many lasted no longer than a fortnight and few as long as half a year.

 

2. Elia trusting Varys : let's not underestimate how convincing Varys can be . I always say Elia Martell , considering her upbringing and family , was probably a very capable woman . according to Jaimie , the only reason she didn't get to leave for Dragonstone like she wanted to , was that the king forbade it . which makes me think she must have argued for her escape and lost when the king forbade it . looking at the situation at hand , she was lonely , her husband was dead , his enemy was coming for her children and she was most likely friendless in Kingslanding , considering no one was there for her . Cersei claims when she first came to Kingslanding Varys made friends with her , seeing how friendless and helpless she is . now , is it really hard to believe Elia Martell in a wayyy more dire situation did not trust a young Varys who like her was pretty much an outsider at court?

 

3. why not Rhaenys : for all we know Elia Martell may have initially wanted to spirit out both her children . heck , it may be that she and Varys had actually agreed upon saving both kids . so, what may have went on ? there's three possibilities:

• the first option is that Varys had been able to convince Elia that Aegon as Rhaegar's heir was in more danger and that taking away Rhaenys and placing another child in her place would sooner be found out , considering the staff and some courtiers (including Kevan Lannister apparently) would know her by appearance. but I don't really buy into this one personally . I think it could be one of the other two options .
• Varys may have broken his deal with Elia and had decided to make arrangements for Aegon alone . however , I think the last option is more likely . 
• paying attention to the fact that Rhaenys was found in her father's chambers where she wasn't suppose to be shows that maybe Varys was not able to locate the princess in time and thus was not able to take both children away . 

4. the matter of doppelgangers : a thing people keep assuming when talking about baby swap is what YG is doing right now has been Varys's plan from the get go . but was it ? did he have to look for children who looked exactly like the royal children ? well , no . he couldn't possibly know they are gonna get murdered . obviously the plan must have been something like Jon's baby swap plot with Gilly or Myrcella's swap with her cousin . the plan is to give some time to the royal person to runaway without anyone noticing . Jon had definitely planned to reveal Monster's identity as soon as anyone needed Mance's child . and Myrcella's cousin on the ship was just there to be taken to Stannis if anything happened so that Stannis wouldn't have that important of a hostage . the Lannister cousin was not suppose to pretend being Myrcella when brought in front of Stannis Baratheon . and one would think the tanner's boy and who ever that was suppose to be swapped with Rhaenys wasn't going to fool anyone . the truth would've been revealed whenever they were brought forth in front of Robert  and court. the problem is no one predicted the sack would be as bloody as it was . 

 

5. why would Varys do anything ? well , Varys doesn't need reasons . he had served one mad man to gain power and wealth and then Tywin who was pretty much anti-Varys is at the door .  after him comes Robert who has absolutely no reason to keep Varys in his court . whether Varys wants to stick to the Targaryens , make plans with Martells or turn over the Targlings to Robert as his good will , does not matter . they are useful to him either way . and with what we know of Varys's past , he did not steal info for some grand scheme , he stole them just in case they could be useful . same goes for Targlings . the thing is Tywin ruined it and Varys could keep Aegon just in case and for a bit of experiment of his own . 

 

 

[Quoth the raven,]

The logistics was a nightmare.  Find two babies which could pass for Rhaegar's children, get them to the right place at the right time, convince Elia, ask Elia to put on some really great acting performance.  Beg the Gods for the bodies to be damaged beyond recognition.  It's too much.  

[Gilbert Green]

12 minutes ago, Quoth the raven, said:

The logistics was a nightmare.  Find two babies which could pass for Rhaegar's children, get them to the right place at the right time, convince Elia, ask Elia to put on some really great acting performance.  Beg the Gods for the bodies to be damaged beyond recognition.  It's too much.  

Well, the idea would be simply to smuggle the royal children to safety before the ruse was discovered.  Beyond that, there is no need to perfectly predict future events.

[Gilbert Green]

15 hours ago, Skahaz mo Kandaq said:

None of the three royals were swapped.  Elia, Aegon, and Rhaenys died during the sack of King's Landing.  Varys was telling the story for the benefit of the little birds who were present during Kevan's last moments.  

Varys smuggled Aegon to his uncle Doran.  But as the baby grew, it looked less the part.  So Aegon and his nephew Quentyn were swapped, and Aegon was thereafter sent to Lord Yronwood to be fostered.   Quentyn's Blackfyre mom Mellario (a/k/a Lemore) took him to Norvos with her, and raised him to believe he was Aegon.  Eventually Mellario and Quentyn left Norvos as Lemore and Young Griff.  Doran is in on it; he's plotting to put his son on the Iron Throne in place of his nephew.  So are Mellario's parents, Varys (Serra) and Illyrio.  They are plotting to put their Blackfyre grandson on the Iron Throne.

Young Griff is a fake Aegon; but he looks the part because he Aegon's cousin -- with a mix of Blackfyre and Martell heritage.

[Gilbert Green]

16 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

My guess is that Rhaenys, at three years old, was too familiar for the staff to pull off such a deception.

It is easier to smuggle a smaller child.  I would imagine that there were plans to save the older child as well, but events moved too quickly.  Also Rhaenys was in less danger, because not really in the line of succession.  After Aegon, came Viserys, and he had already fled to safety.

[Tyrosh Lannister]

18 hours ago, Skahaz mo Kandaq said:

None of the three royals were swapped.  Elia, Aegon, and Rhaenys died during the sack of King's Landing.  Varys was telling the story for the benefit of the little birds who were present during Kevan's last moments.  

Don't those birds belong to him (and allegedly have their tongues cut off )? What are they gonna do with this info?

[Vettie32]

He did. That was the girl hiding under the bed in Rhaenys' room. But the real Rhaenys was in Rhaegar's room, which no one knew. So she ended up getting left behind.  I like to think that's why whatshisname stabbed her so many times. He thought he had already killed her once.

And this was likely not something Varys did on his own. My guess is when Aerys arranged for Rhaella and Viserys to go to Dragonstone, Rhaella immediately arranged for Elia and her grandkids to go with her. 

[James Arryn]

As others have noted, the pisswater prince didn’t have to be a perfect match for Aegon, that’s hindsight application. They just needed the hair and approximate size…the initial idea, amidst the growing crisis, was just to buy enough time to get the heir out of the Red Keep, King’s Landing if possible, then to wherever was doable. No one needed to predict the baby being made unrecognizable, that was just a bonus and a way to further use Tywin’s evil against him. This was probably a pretty spur-of-the-moment planning in real time, surrounded by dire news and imminent collapse. A 3 year old girl is a lot less interchangeable, a lot more easily/quickly identified. 

As for why not Rhaenys, several valid explanations have been offered; giving Elia the comfort of one child, with whom she seemingly shared much lower risks of danger, Rhaenys being un-locatable at the crucial moment (unexpectedly hiding under daddy’s bed, which ultimately only saves her from rescue, a very GRRM kinda bitter irony), not having a Dornish replacement at the right time, maybe Rhaenys was freaking out and uncontrollable as toddlers in a crisis’s are want to be, meaning she couldn’t be calmed down enough to take part in any escape requiring quiet or play-acting, something specific about the means of escape, ie maybe only one person/child climbing ladders only able to carry one baby or w/e, or just political pragmatism, ie this is about protecting the dynasty, not saving children, and the increased risk of fake Rhaenys being identified much faster than Aegon might significantly lower the odds of getting the crucial heir out.*

Edit: and to be fair, the butchering of Rhaegar’s family, heir aside,  was probably not considered too probable. Obviously Tywin felt Robert wanted/needed it done and enjoyed ~ having it done while keeping his hands clean. It’s an open question whether he’d have actually ordered it done himself…and what Ned and Jon Arryn’s response would have been in that event. Either way it’s unlikely that Elia et al would have known that Robert had gone full genocide on his grandmother’s family. 

 

* all of this assuming Varys is telling the truth, something I go back and forth on. 

[EggBlue]

5 hours ago, Quoth the raven, said:

The logistics was a nightmare.  Find two babies which could pass for Rhaegar's children, get them to the right place at the right time, convince Elia, ask Elia to put on some really great acting performance.  Beg the Gods for the bodies to be damaged beyond recognition.  It's too much.  

I've wrote about the rest in my post , but as for the bolded , does it really need much of a performance when a baby's head is dashed against the wall in front of you ? 

[Corvo the Crow]

8 hours ago, EggBlue said:

I've wrote about the rest in my post , but as for the bolded , does it really need much of a performance when a baby's head is dashed against the wall in front of you ? 

I think it could, if the same person is cold hearted as to swap a baby to die so their own can survive. I know some Dany worshippers will find something to accuse Jon here, with his baby swap and all, but Jon was going to say "nope, that's not Mance's son, that's the TargAryan wannabe's son" while there seems to have been no intention here with Elia and Varys.

[EggBlue]

2 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

I think it could, if the same person is cold hearted as to swap a baby to die so their own can survive. I know some Dany worshippers will find something to accuse Jon here, with his baby swap and all, but Jon was going to say "nope, that's not Mance's son, that's the TargAryan wannabe's son" while there seems to have been no intention here with Elia and Varys.

ummm , actually even if someone's cold hearted enough to let another child die instead of their own which would probably be the preference of a lot of parents when their own kid is danger , the sheer brutality of the baby's murder is enough of a horrifying sight . I mean , dashing a baby's head against a wall !!! who does that?! babies are so fragile , they die if you hold their nose for too long ! of course she would jump facing that ! besides, I think the point of Jon's baby swap plot and Myrcella's swap plot in the same book as Aegon reveal (feast and dance are technically one book) is to show how similar the situations were . to go by that example , Elia and Varys must have planned to merely buy enough time for the kids to be spirited away so that not only no danger comes to them , but also they can't be used as hostages against Dorne and loyalist forces at Stormsend and Dragonstone . no one could predict that Tywin would kill them like that , not even with the sack . Elia must have thought the worst that might happen to them is that they'll be locked up until Robert arrives . 

[Ser Lepus]

On 1/2/2023 at 2:34 PM, Skahaz mo Kandaq said:

None of the three royals were swapped.  Elia, Aegon, and Rhaenys died during the sack of King's Landing.  Varys was telling the story for the benefit of the little birds who were present during Kevan's last moments.  

As I said in another thread:

I think that Varys holds no special loyalty to the Targaryens, and Aegon is a fake, probably Illyrio's son with his late lysene wife. He didn't save Rhaenys, but he didn't save Aegon either, because he doesn't care about putting a real Targaryen on the throne.

When Tywin betrayed Aerys and sacked King's Landing, Varys probably was more worried about saving his own ass than about saving any Targaryen; he only came up with his Faegon plan later, once things had settled and he realized his life wasn't under imminent danger.

I don't think Varys lied for the benefit of the little birds... Varys never said the real Aegon Targaryen was alive, it was Kevan who thought he was speaking about him... Varys was speaking about "his" Aegon, the one he has shaped, the only that matters to him.

It was like:

Varys: Aegon is coming.

Kevan: Aegon is dead.

Varys: Nope, he is alive and he is going to be awesome (by which he means, his Aegon, not the real Aegon...).

[Groo]

15 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

So Aegon and his nephew Quentyn were swapped, and Aegon was thereafter sent to Lord Yronwood to be fostered.   Quentyn's Blackfyre mom Mellario (a/k/a Lemore) took him to Norvos with her, and raised him to believe he was Aegon.

The actual timeline doesn't fit your theory. Quentyn was born in 281. The sack of Kingslanding was in 283. Tristan was born in 287. Mellario didn't leave Dorne until years after that. How exactly were the Martells juggling having an extra kid around for all those years before she went back to Norvos?

[Gilbert Green]

49 minutes ago, Groo said:

The actual timeline doesn't fit your theory. Quentyn was born in 281. The sack of Kingslanding was in 283. Tristan was born in 287.

Quentyn and Aegon are plausibly about the same age, give or take a few months.  I think Aegon was also born in late 281.

The roots of Doran and Mellario's estrangement dates back at least to circa 284 or 285, when Doran and Mellario have a loud argument about Doran's plan to send Quentyn to be fostered by Lord Yronwood.  Quentyn would be about 3 years old at the time.

49 minutes ago, Groo said:

Mellario didn't leave Dorne until years after that.

Source?  We don't know that there was one single unique time that Mellario left Dorne.  There have presumably been visits.  Anyhow, Frog was apparently not sent to the Yronwood's at age 3.  That was merely when the argument took place.  Apparently he was sent to the Yronwoods at some later year when he was old enough that he was able to retain his memories later as an adult.  It could have been after Tristan was born that he was sent.  

The actual swap would have to occur at around age 3, or not too long after.  Otherwise, both boys would remember their true identities.  They would remember their true identities anyway if they were sent immediately after the swap, so obviously that would not be done either.

So they were swapped at around age 3, following the Doran/Mellario argument.  Some years later, and in no particular order, after both boys were reasonably confirmed in their new identities, Tristan was born, Frog was sent to the Yronwoods, and Mellario went to Norvos with Young Griff.

49 minutes ago, Groo said:

How exactly were the Martells juggling having an extra kid around for all those years before she went back to Norvos?

What are you talking about?  This is not some poor struggling family.  This is ruling nobility.  They have resources.  And of course they were going to keep Aegon's identity a secret.  That would always have been the plan, even before they decided to swap him.

[Groo]

11 minutes ago, Gilbert Green said:

The actual swap would have to occur at around age 3, or not too long after.

Apart from the logistical details of your theory, which are all purely speculative, please explain something more important. What is the Martells' motive for this switch? They have their own children and now they've rescued their nephew from the slaughter at Kinglanding. The nephew is the son of their beloved sister Elia. Why would they suddenly decide "Hey, let's swap them!"? Surely, Aegon won't be pissed off as an adult when he finds out he isn't "Quentyn" and was screwed out his inheritance. Surely, Quentyn won't mind finding out he was lied to his whole life and he isn't really "Aegon". Surely, the whole realm will gladly accept that the man sitting on the throne is a Martell imposter. Or I suppose your theory is that Doran and Mellario would consider it a success if no one ever finds out and only they ever know that their "nephew" sitting on the throne is actually their son, even though their son himself doesn't know it.

Your theory would also make the subsequent actions in the books a bunch of confusing nonsense. Why would Doran send his nephew "Quentyn" to marry Daenerys if his real son "Young Griff" is still alive and being groomed to be king soon? Why would Doran have signed a marriage contract for Arianne and Viserys when the point of the contract was Dornish support for Viserys to eventually take the throne?

[Gilbert Green]

2 hours ago, Groo said:

What is the Martells' motive for this switch?

- Mellario does not want to be separated from her son, Doran does not want to upset his wife, but Doran still needs to send his son to be fostered with the Yronwoods in order to retain the loyalty of his vassal; which, in turn, he will need in the coming war for the Iron Throne.

- The real Aegon, as he grew older, came to look less the part.  In short, he turned into "Frog".  For Aegon to re-appear after all those years thought dead, and be accepted as the real Aegon, he needs to look the part.  But as chance had it, his cousin Quentyn ended up looking the part better than the real Aegon did.

- Doran likes the idea of his son on the Iron Throne, better than he likes the idea of his nephew on the Iron Throne.

- Mellario likes the idea of her son on the Iron Throne, better than she likes the idea of her nephew-in-law on the Iron Throne.

- Co-conspirators Varys and Illyrio are also tickled by the idea of putting their Blackfyre grandson on the Iron Throne.

- The Golden Company likes the idea of putting a Blackfyre on the Iron Throne; so we get them on board as well.  It never hurts to have an extra army.

2 hours ago, Groo said:

They have their own children and now they've rescued their nephew from the slaughter at Kinglanding. The nephew is the son of their beloved sister Elia.

Dude.  It's not as though they planned to murder him.  He might even have ended up as the ruling Prince of Dorne.

Sure he is being screwed over to an extent.  But wicked uncles have done far worse things to their nephews.

2 hours ago, Groo said:

Surely, Aegon won't be pissed off as an adult when he finds out he isn't "Quentyn" and was screwed out his inheritance.

Who said they were planning to tell Frog?

2 hours ago, Groo said:

Surely, the whole realm will gladly accept that the man sitting on the throne is a Martell imposter.

Obviously, they are not planning to tell "the whole realm".  I suppose you are of the opinion that Young Griff is the real deal, because you find it inconceivable that anyone would try to fool "the whole realm". 

But if Aegon is a fake, then this theory explains how he looks the part so well.  He is the real Aegon's cousin, and also a Blackfyre (Targaryen)- Martell mix.

2 hours ago, Groo said:

Or I suppose your theory is that Doran and Mellario would consider it a success if no one ever finds out and only they ever know that their "nephew" sitting on the throne is actually their son, even though their son himself doesn't know it.

Gandpa Illyrio probably knows.  Grandma Varys probably knows.  The leader of the Golden Company probably has some kind of clue. 

I never expressed any opinion on whether Young Griff has been let in on the secret, or will ever be let in on the secret.

Jon Connington does not know.    But we are never given access to Young Griff's inner thoughts.

2 hours ago, Groo said:

Why would Doran send his nephew "Quentyn" to marry Daenerys if his real son "Young Griff" is still alive and being groomed to be king soon?

To get another ally, of course.  Young Griff was also intended to join forces with Dany, before heading to Westeros.  But I express no opinion about whether the left hand necessarily knows what the right hand is doing, when different co-conspirators make different top-secret decisions 1000 miles apart.

2 hours ago, Groo said:

Why would Doran have signed a marriage contract for Arianne and Viserys when the point of the contract was Dornish support for Viserys to eventually take the throne?

You tell me.  Why did Illyrio encourage Viserys in his ambitions; when we now know that he has had an "Aegon" of some sort in his back pocket all along?

Many of your objections are not objections to my theory.  They are merely things we don't know, regardless of whether my theory is correct or not.

Also, when was the marriage pact signed?  It might have been before the Red Viper murdered Lord Yronwood, before Mellario and Doran fought; before Baby Aegon's hair started to turn brown.  I doubt the marriage pact says anything directly about the Iron Throne.  Nothing in it prevents both Arianne and her husband Viserys from supporting their nephew/cousin Aegon who has the better claim.  It is unwise to put all one's eggs in one basket while making plots 15 years in advance.

Also, nobody wants another Mad King Aerys.  As Viserys grew, it became increasingly clear that that's what Viserys was.  Either he could be persuaded to support another claim for the Iron Throne, or he was an inconvenience that had to ultimately be gotten rid of.  But nobody can know in advance how children will grow.