International Events Next-

[Zorral]

Russia’s Key Economic Sectors Shrug Off Sanctions
Russia’s third quarter growth hits 5.5%, outpacing estimates
Recovery shows limits of sanctions to punish Moscow over war

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-15/russia-s-war-economy-sees-key-sectors-shrugging-off-sanctions?

 

[Luzifer's right hand]

By now a lot of companies from countries that sanction Russia probably have well established ways of circumventing them.

[Kalbear]

3 minutes ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

By now a lot of companies from countries that sanction Russia probably have well established ways of circumventing them.

Maybe. More likely countries like China and India have stepped up taking advantage of cheap oil and mineral production and have shifted more of their supply lines over.

Or it could just be creative accounting.

[kissdbyfire]

On Russia's economy and sanctions, etc.

 

[Luzifer's right hand]

34 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Maybe. More likely countries like China and India have stepped up taking advantage of cheap oil and mineral production and have shifted more of their supply lines over.

Or it could just be creative accounting.

A lot of companies are suddenly buying those things from India.

Edit: I'm from Austria and companies here are definitely doing as much business with Russia as possible.

Edited November 16, 2023 by Luzifer's right hand

[Maithanet]

39 minutes ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

By now a lot of companies from countries that sanction Russia probably have well established ways of circumventing them.

But I feel like this is sort of missing the point on what sanctions are trying to accomplish.  The oil sanctions for example were never meant to prevent Russian oil from entering the market - doing so would cause a global price shock and be bad for everyone.  Instead sanctions are to prevent the Russian government from making much (or ideally, any) profit from the sale of oil.  If Russia finds a way to ship their oil to India where it gets repackaged as "Indian blend", that costs Russia money.  That's a sign of sanctions actually working, not sanctions failing.  Now, ideally the international community would pressure India to crack down on this so that it is harder to make this "Indian blend", which would in turn increase the margin that Indian middlemen need to receive in order to make it worth their while.  That cut will inevitably come from Russia's pockets, and that is good.

Likewise with something like electronics or microchips.  Russia is going to get their hands on them through intermediaries like Turkey, India, Pakistan or China.  But so long as this needs to be done in some level of secrecy and in smaller, more deniable quantities, that's good.  Russia will have to make do with less microchips than they'd want, and pay more for the ones they do get.  That is what you want from sanctions. 

Sanctions are never and never will be airtight.  Even if every government in the world was 100% dedicated to cracking down on Russian trade, international criminal organizations would fill the gap.  Some of the illicit goods are always going to get in, and when we're talking about a country like Russia with a lot of money and a lot of international partners, there are going to be a lot of holes.  But so long as the sanctions are making things more expensive for Russia, then they are, at least to some extent, working. 

I would also point out that unlike oil, natural gas requires a lot of infrastructure, and it will be many years, probably well into the 2030s before Russia can find buyers for its natural gas at the level of what they were selling Europe.  Russia losing that market was extremely impactful and the Russian fossil fuel industry is suffering, and will continue to suffer, because of it. 

[kissdbyfire]

On 10/25/2023 at 7:49 PM, kissdbyfire said:

Good news, our sisters and brothers in Argentina managed to avert a major catastrophe. For now anyways, runoff is next month. 
 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/23/sergio-massa-wins-first-round-argentina-presidential-election-over-javier-milei

The above post didn't age well. Sadly, totally deranged populist w/ authoritarian tendencies Milei won the runoff election in Argentina. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-19/argentina-presidential-election-milei-beats-massa-in-runoff

[Conflicting Thought]

47 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

The above post didn't age well. Sadly, totally deranged populist w/ authoritarian tendencies Milei won the runoff election in Argentina. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-19/argentina-presidential-election-milei-beats-massa-in-runoff

Its a very sad day in latin america, like when bolsonaro won

[kissdbyfire]

12 minutes ago, Conflicting Thought said:

Its a very sad day in latin america, like when bolsonaro won

I don’t understand it. I mean, 150% inflation, people are really struggling and they vote for the nutjob former tv celebrity (I think?) who says he's gonna end the Central Bank AND all social services, and cabinets like Health, Education, and who knows what else. This guy is really scary and from what I've read, really unhinged. Apparently he's a really big Trump fan as well, which will surprise no one. Yikes.

ETA: I do understand that w/ the economy in shambles as it is people don't want to vote for the current economy minister, I get it. But voting for this guy is only going to make everything so much worse...

Edited November 20, 2023 by kissdbyfire

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

11 minutes ago, Conflicting Thought said:

Its a very sad day in latin america, like when bolsonaro won

Milei might be even more crazy. Argentina has serious problems, but this isn't the answer. I feel bad for my host family and friends in BA. 

[Conflicting Thought]

19 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

I don’t understand it. I mean, 150% inflation, people are really struggling and they vote for the nutjob former tv celebrity (I think?) who says he's gonna end the Central Bank AND all social services, and cabinets like Health, Education, and who knows what else. This guy is really scary and from what I've read, really unhinged. Apparently he's a really big Trump fan as well, which will surprise no one. Yikes.

ETA: I do understand that w/ the economy in shambles as it is people don't want to vote for the current economy minister, I get it. But voting for this guy is only going to make everything so much worse...

Its the same reason people voted for trump and bolsonaro, an outsider who is not involved in corruption (yet). There is also much hate for the peronists/kirschnerism for decades of corruption. And the milei campaign has ties to Steve Bannon, same as boslonaro, they know how to use media to generate and create this "outsider" figures.

[Conflicting Thought]

18 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Milei might be even more crazy. Argentina has serious problems, but this isn't the answer. I feel bad for my host family and friends in BA. 

Yeah he is deffinetly crazier than bolsonaro

[kissdbyfire]

8 minutes ago, Conflicting Thought said:

Its the same reason people voted for trump and bolsonaro, an outsider who is not involved in corruption (yet). There is also much hate for the peronists/kirschnerism for decades of corruption. And the milei campaign has ties to Steve Bannon, same as boslonaro, they know how to use media to generate and create this "outsider" figures.

Yeah, I get that it's an attempt at rejecting politicians and going for the "outsider" or the rich guy who doesn't need money so will not be corrupt etc. But it doesn't work like that, and people are going to hurt real bad.

Also, disagree about Trump and Bolsonaro, IMO both were corrupt to the core long before becoming president. 

[House Balstroko]

10 minutes ago, Conflicting Thought said:

Its the same reason people voted for trump and bolsonaro, an outsider who is not involved in corruption (yet). There is also much hate for the peronists/kirschnerism for decades of corruption. And the milei campaign has ties to Steve Bannon, same as boslonaro, they know how to use media to generate and create this "outsider" figures.

Do you think this will have an impact on other countries in Latin America? How popular is Gabriel Boric in Chile? 
 

[kissdbyfire]

6 minutes ago, House Balstroko said:

Do you think this will have an impact on other countries in Latin America? How popular is Gabriel Boric in Chile? 
 

The stuff he's saying is going to hurt Aegentina more than anyone else. For instance, he said no more trade w/ China, one of their main trade partners. He also says he'll pull out of Mercosur... all of this will hurt Argentina a lot.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bnnbloomberg.ca/argentina-s-milei-says-he-d-reject-assassin-china-leave-mercosur-1.1959892.amp.html

Edited November 20, 2023 by kissdbyfire

[House Balstroko]

1 minute ago, kissdbyfire said:

The stuff he's saying is going to hurt Aegentina more than anyone else. For instance, he said no more trade w/ China, one of their main trade partners. He also says he'll pull out of Mercosur... all of this will hurt Argentina a lot.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bnnbloomberg.ca/argentina-s-milei-says-he-d-reject-assassin-china-leave-mercosur-1.1959892.amp.html

A lot of that stuff is outright insane. Hopefully, those more extreme tendencies can be reined in.  

[Conflicting Thought]

11 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Yeah, I get that it's an attempt at rejecting politicians and going for the "outsider" or the rich guy who doesn't need money so will not be corrupt etc. But it doesn't work like that, and people are going to hurt real bad.

Also, disagree about Trump and Bolsonaro, IMO both were corrupt to the core long before becoming president. 

Yes, i think i didnt say that bolsonaro and trump werent corrupt, they are and they where. And i know it doesnt work like that i was just trying to explain why they elected him, some of the reasons at least.

[Conflicting Thought]

39 minutes ago, House Balstroko said:

Do you think this will have an impact on other countries in Latin America? How popular is Gabriel Boric in Chile? 
 

For sure is going to have an impact, specially the tactics wich they already tried when boric was elected, and tried and succeded with the first draft of our attempt to create a new constitution, their social media game is far above ours, specially because of money (of course) and as i already mention, becouse the seek the help of people like bannon, who is an expert on this kinds of tactics.

Edited November 20, 2023 by Conflicting Thought

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Conflicting Thought said:

Yeah he is deffinetly crazier than bolsonaro

What could go wrong with electing someone who claims to regularly talk to his dead dogs through a psychic and seeks their political opinions? 

[House Balstroko]

3 hours ago, Conflicting Thought said:

For sure is going to have an impact, specially the tactics wich they already tried when boric was elected, and tried and succeded with the first draft of our attempt to create a new constitution, their social media game is far above ours, specially because of money (of course) and as i already mention, becouse the seek the help of people like bannon, who is an expert on this kinds of tactics.

That’s frightening on so many levels. At the same time, I’m glad that Bolsonaro got defeated, even if only barely, and is barred from holding public office for the next decade in Brazil.