Toth Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 1 minute ago, ThinkerX said: Might be time to think the unthinkable... Suppose, just suppose the Ukrainians extend their offensive well into Russia proper and capture a major metropolis or three? Nah, that would be a major no-no and pretty much the only act that could get Kyiv nuked with limited western retaliation. While I am still skeptical about this offensive pushing the lines back this dramatically, I think the best we can hope for would still be Ukraine throwing out all Russian troops in the Donbass and then laying siege to Crimea until Russia is forced to withdraw. A True Kaniggit, Tongue Stuck to Wall and Ser Scot A Ellison 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dog-days Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 39 minutes ago, Toth said: Today I put aside a girl from one of my classes that I think I mentioned before. Essentially the only Russian student I have at the moment who... is very firmly pro-"Russia" in this war with no other reasoning that she feels she has to because her family is Russian and she has relatives in Crimea. Before that I had only one Dagestani boy who was more like "Haha, look at all the Russia sucks memes!". But since I'm intending to now feature the Ukraine war in our politics lessons I wanted to tell her that it isn't my intention to corner her, but at the same time wanted to tell her that I'm very concerned about how defensively she approaches... all political topics, really. I know this is extremely incidental and can't be used to explain Russian expats in general, but on the other hand I found it... oddly interesting how she behaves and can't help but wonder how much of that comes from stuff she picked up at home. So basically her go-to kneejerk reaction is that... she states she simply knows nothing whatsoever about history and politics. But she uses that also as a shield to not engage with anything either. The task is to simply describe Weimar Republic election posters? She doesn't know the symbolism of anything, so she can't even describe what she's seeing. It's all pointless to her, so she just completely blocks and gives up. Today we had political cartoons. A guy trying to hand out flyers but nobody is around and all the flyers lie on the ground? She doesn't know what idea that situation tries to convey, so she won't even describe it. Of course we previously had a situation where the Ukraine war was metioned. She very hesitantly interjected that Russia had every right to invade because the people there want to be annexed, which prompted another girl she is friends with to give a whole barrage of well put reasons why that's bullshit. The Russian girl sheepishly admitted that she actually doesn't know anything other than what's she vaguely picked up from home and ceded the point. I got the impression that she really, really, really doesn't want to get put into a spot where she has to argue with her friends and she today in our talk confirmed it to me that she fears that she's going to get into trouble with them because her opinions are totally opposite. She however still claimed she truly doesn't have any common knowledge whatsover, only opinions and nothing else. So I explained to her that the main purpose of our lessons isn't to pick a side to root for, but instead to understand why conflicts happen, how we can understand actors and use that knowledge to anticipate world events and argue what channels can be used for peace and what limitations there are on those. So I really need her to at least look at facts and engage with them. I hope that got through to her. In any case, I found it quite... troubling to see how she wasn't displaying the apathy or even the entrenched rabid jingoism that I had somehow expected, but instead an extremely stubborn refusal to engage with anything remotely political. I think you did the right thing by taking her aside to talk to her, and it sounds really good that she trusted you enough to admit that she's worried about her beliefs causing a rift between her and her friends. If it helps, I think the refusal to engage is quite a natural response from a young person in her position feeling a strong loyalty to her family and struggling to reconcile that with her current context and classroom demands. As well as feeling perhaps defensive and insecure? I'm not sure how old exactly your students are, but the lessons sound quite high-concept. If she doesn't come from the background where exposure to that kind of discussion is normal, she could not have the instinct for how to engage or the ability to recognise what a more dispassionate kind of engagement looks like. I wonder what her interests are outside of class, and if any of them could tie in with the subject of a future lesson? Ser Scot A Ellison 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toth Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 34 minutes ago, Zorral said: This is the consequence of a state that has deliberately lied for generations. We're getting there if we can't turn things around, and fast too! Curious about the differences of authoritarianism and fascism. After all, there is a difference in telling your people "everyone lies, everyone is crooked, so just don't bother questioning anything at all!" to keep your populace apolitical like Russia did and the "we need to all stick together because the nation and fighting the enemy is more important than truth!" thing that Russia increasingly does to activate their populace. 5 minutes ago, dog-days said: As well as feeling perhaps defensive and insecure? I'm not sure how old exactly your students are, but the lessons sound quite high-concept. If she doesn't come from the background where exposure to that kind of discussion is normal, she could not have the instinct for how to engage or the ability to recognise what a more dispassionate kind of engagement looks like. I wonder what her interests are outside of class, and if any of them could tie in with the subject of a future lesson? The students are all in their early twenties because it's one where you can catch up on your high school degree after being out of school for a while. It's still definitely a hurdle to have a detached discussion without "rooting for your team like in a football game" (a metaphor I've occasionally used to defuse some outwardly patriotic students). Her interests... absolutely no clue, actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 3 hours ago, Werthead said: It looks like the Ukrainians have been doing a lot of their trademark being successful and being caught off-guard by how successful they're being (because they refuse to believe how shit the Russians are being), and are suddenly rushing forces forwards to exploit their success. Apparently the big concern is the Russian supply route into the SE of the city, which is coming back under Ukrainian fire control. There is a fair amount of debate going on in military internet circles (probably actual mil circles as well) about whether what we have seen in the last few days from Ukraine are shaping operations or the actual offensive itself. Shaping operations are setting the stage for your big attack (bombing logistics/command areas, taking key locations as a jumping off point for the big attack, extensive reconnisance in force to get the best picture of enemy strength). It has happened a couple of times in this war that the staging operations went so well that the Russians just fled, and the Ukrainians had to act quickly to attack before their planned timetable. 1 hour ago, ThinkerX said: Might be time to think the unthinkable... Suppose, just suppose the Ukrainians extend their offensive well into Russia proper and capture a major metropolis or three? This is not unthinkable, but it is illogical. Ukraine does not want to occupy Russian cities - they want to reclaim their occupied territory and end the war. Taking a Russian city does not support that goal at all. US/EU support would quickly stop if Ukraine sought to conquer Russian territory. Russia would be much more likely to deploy nukes and the pushback to such a move would be greatly reduced if it was on Russian soil against a military target. Ukraine wants to capture Mariupol and Sevastapol, not Belgorod. Zorral 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted May 12, 2023 Share Posted May 12, 2023 3 hours ago, ThinkerX said: Might be time to think the unthinkable... Suppose, just suppose the Ukrainians extend their offensive well into Russia proper and capture a major metropolis or three? A Russian military blogger came up with this idea yesterday because an absolute ton of Ukrainian military equipment was seen transitioning through Kharkiv "towards the Russian border." However, that was speculative nonsense. Kharkiv is a massive transport hub, equipment being sent east via Kyiv would go through Kharkiv in almost any case. Material can then go SE towards Donetsk or due south towards the main front (probably not towards Kherson though, that'd be a weird route). The idea of Ukraine capturing Belgorod - which would be difficult but not unachievable, and the former Russian staging areas around Belgorod were flattened months ago - and using it as a bargaining chip to get Russia to withdraw from Ukrainian cities has been floated a few times but it's inherently daft. It plays into Russia's delusional narrative about Russian soil being under attack and threatened, it would unavoidably kill Russian civilians in larger numbers, it could be used as the justification for countries to start supplying Russia with weapons and ultimately it would eat up a lot of resources which Ukraine does not possess in abundance and could be better deployed against retaking Melitopol, Mariupol or the twin cities. Zorral, A True Kaniggit and Tongue Stuck to Wall 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A True Kaniggit Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 (edited) Let's say Ukraine's next offensive goes perfectly, and all Russian troops are driven out of Ukraine (excepting Crimea). Would the war be over? Why would Putin call it quits at this point? Wouldn't he just build up his forces at the border again and launch another attack? How can Ukraine force an ending? It seems the war won't end until Putin is no longer in a position of power. Edited May 13, 2023 by A True Kaniggit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted May 13, 2023 Author Share Posted May 13, 2023 13 minutes ago, A True Kaniggit said: Let's say Ukraine's next offensive goes perfectly, and all Russian troops are driven out of Ukraine (excepting Crimea). Would the war be over? Why would Putin call it quits at this point? Wouldn't he just build up his forces at the border again and launch another attack? How can Ukraine force an ending? It seems the war won't end until Putin is no longer in a position of power. What forces would Putin have left to mass? How would he arm them? Mass rushes at the border by conscripts armed with pikes being mowed down by well armed Ukrainian troops? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Horse Named Stranger Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, A True Kaniggit said: Let's say Ukraine's next offensive goes perfectly, and all Russian troops are driven out of Ukraine (excepting Crimea). Would the war be over? Why would Putin call it quits at this point? Wouldn't he just build up his forces at the border again and launch another attack? How can Ukraine force an ending? It seems the war won't end until Putin is no longer in a position of power. NATO membership. That's the entire point, to join NATO in that sweet spot, when Ukraine is reasonably satisfied with the outcome, and Russia is busy rebuilding its military (which will them take a while). Once you are in NATO the huff and puff of Putin (or his successor) have lost quite a bit of its bite. In other news. This is going way too far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A True Kaniggit Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: What forces would Putin have left to mass? How would he arm them? Mass rushes at the border by conscripts armed with pikes being mowed down by well armed Ukrainian troops? Perhaps. But the war would still be ongoing, with Ukraine unable to push into Russia because of the reasons previously stated, but Putin still attacking because he could never admit the loss. Edited May 13, 2023 by A True Kaniggit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A True Kaniggit Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 6 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said: NATO membership. That's the entire point, to join NATO in that sweet spot, when Ukraine is reasonably satisfied with the outcome, and Russia is busy rebuilding its military (which will them take a while). Once you are in NATO the huff and puff of Putin (or his successor) have lost quite a bit of its bite. In other news. This is going way too far. I am very doubtful NATO will ever admit Ukraine with any semblance of a war with Russia still ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 In spite of all that bluster, Russia cannot keep this war going indefinitely. Not even if they scale it back to 1/4th the current level. The Russian economy is slowly eating itself, and while that doesn't mean it is going to collapse next month or next season, it will happen eventually, and possibly fairly soon. If Russia's plan for winning the war is for Trump to cut off US support, that is still 20 months away (if it ever happens). Russia being able to fight that long is by no means certain, and being able to fight effectively in 2025 is even more dicey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Horse Named Stranger Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 (edited) 29 minutes ago, Maithanet said: In spite of all that bluster, Russia cannot keep this war going indefinitely. Not even if they scale it back to 1/4th the current level. The Russian economy is slowly eating itself, and while that doesn't mean it is going to collapse next month or next season, it will happen eventually, and possibly fairly soon. If Russia's plan for winning the war is for Trump to cut off US support, that is still 20 months away (if it ever happens). Russia being able to fight that long is by no means certain, and being able to fight effectively in 2025 is even more dicey. I think quite a bit of how fast the Russian economy collapses will depend on how effective the EU will be in cutting out the circumvention of its sanctions by third states. atm it looks like other countries (Turkey being one of the main culprits, the other being China) have more or less surprisingly picked up the demand on goods that could not longer be exported to Russia, and they are then happy to sell those goods on to Russian companies. (the washing machines etc. for chips) Another nuisance is apparently the aviation sector, with Aeroflot flying its planes to Turkey for maintenance. Turkish Airlines and Pegasus have sufficient spare parts apparently. I am not sure the EU has the nerves to sanction Turkey, if Erdogan threatens to open the gates for refugees in return. Yes, that distasteful EU-Turkey refugee deal continues to haunt Europe. So Putin will also look at the Turkish election, which could cause him more problems short term. Edited May 13, 2023 by A Horse Named Stranger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 Here's a harrowing article on how Ukraine denied Russia a bakhmut victory by victory day. Gifted so yall can read it, you fucking freeloaders https://wapo.st/3I74BMy Spockydog, A Horse Named Stranger, Jace, Extat and 1 other 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 Unconfirmed reports of for aircraft downed today. Take with a grain of salt. However, if that is true, then something has changed. Speculation that Ukraine may have hacked Russias friend/foe identification system. At least two of the aircraft are claimed to have been knocked down well into Russia. Ser Scot A Ellison and Jace, Extat 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorn Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 It's confirmed, both by Oryx and Russian sources. It could also be Ukrainian special forces infiltrating deep into Russia with Stingers. Or Ukraine deciding to push a S-300 right next to the border (they're almost out of rockets for them anyway, they can risk them now). Ser Scot A Ellison 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted May 13, 2023 Author Share Posted May 13, 2023 It may be more than a rumor… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 I have no opinions or even words. I don't know what to think, other than what I have all along: please allow Ukraine to defeat the invader, and force the invader back inside its 'home'. And even if that happens, I have no idea what might come next, or even ... what should come next. War distorts the psyche even as it destroys the environment, home and infrastructure, even social bonds too often. Ser Scot A Ellison 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted May 13, 2023 Author Share Posted May 13, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Zorral said: I have no opinions or even words. I don't know what to think, other than what I have all along: please allow Ukraine to defeat the invader, and force the invader back inside its 'home'. And even if that happens, I have no idea what might come next, or even ... what should come next. War distorts the psyche even as it destroys the environment, home and infrastructure, even social bonds too often. I sincerely hope two things. First, that the Ukrainians successfully drive Russian military forces out of Ukraine completely. Second, that the Ukrainians stop at the Russian border after such a successful campaign. Nothing good would come from an invasion of Russia, no matter how justified it may be. Edited May 13, 2023 by Ser Scot A Ellison Zorral 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorn Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 Want to see a $50 million dollar Russian plane go down in flames? Of course you do. Toth and Ser Scot A Ellison 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A True Kaniggit Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: I sincerely hope two things. First, that the Ukrainians successfully drive Russian military forces out of Ukraine completely. Second, thag the Ukrainians stop at the Russian border after such a successful campaign. Nothing good would come from an invasion of Russia, no matter how justified it may be. I agree. But as I mentioned yesterday, if Putin is still in charge at that point, would he allow the war to be over? I can’t see him admitting defeat, so Ukraine may be stuck with a war on their borders that they have to play defensively. Edited May 13, 2023 by A True Kaniggit Ser Scot A Ellison 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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