NFL Draft 2023: Little Black Books edition

[DMC]

Wow Chase Young really fell off a cliff, huh?  Just saw the Commanders aren't picking up his fifth year option.  Makes sense considering the cap hit, and it's mostly due to him not being able to stay healthy, but damn.

[James Arryn]

21 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Mel is always turned on by QBs with a big arm. 

That I’ve seen he has the best arm talent in the draft, beyond just having a gun. But several publications have Jay Cutler as his comp. Which is…fun? 
 

edit: Ty’ll like this, Dan Patrick reporting that the Niners kicked the tires on Lamar. Dunno if due diligence or serious interest or Kyle’s usual pattern of liking qb’s less the more realistic having them in his offence gets. 

Edited April 27, 2023 by James Arryn

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

12 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

That I’ve seen he has the best arm talent in the draft, beyond just having a gun. But several publications have Jay Cutler as his comp. Which is…fun? 

Casting summon @Rhom since it's his team.

Idk what his comp is. Could by Kyler Boller for all we know. Who knows what he will be at the pro level, but he consistently can't even have a 2-1 TD to Int ratio. And then there's all the talk of him having cinderblocks for feet. I just looked it up and during his senior year and he ran 72 times for a shocking -107 yards. You read that correctly, -107. 

Edited April 27, 2023 by Tywin et al.

[Nictarion]

4 hours ago, DMC said:

Wow Chase Young really fell off a cliff, huh?  Just saw the Commanders aren't picking up his fifth year option.  Makes sense considering the cap hit, and it's mostly due to him not being able to stay healthy, but damn.

I remember there was a contingent of OSU homers that actually wanted the Bengals to take him over Joe Burrow.

[Rhom]

11 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Casting summon @Rhom since it's his team.

Idk what his comp is. Could by Kyler Boller for all we know. Who knows what he will be at the pro level, but he consistently can't even have a 2-1 TD to Int ratio. And then there's all the talk of him having cinderblocks for feet. I just looked it up and during his senior year and he ran 72 times for a shocking -107 yards. You read that correctly, -107. 

Ye have summoned me!!!!

Levis is a tough one to evaluate.  I don’t think Cutler is a good comp.  He is a competitive dude and I don’t think you’ll ever see him look pouty the way Cutler did.  Teammates seem to love him.  Charismatic kid.  Hard worker. Think he’s got all the off field stuff you’d want.

On field… well, he’s good… could he have been great if Kentucky had more talent around him like Stroud/Young/Richardson had?  That’s the question.

Your -107 is a bit deceiving.  He ran well his first season at UK.  The offensive line was better then though. This year, the O line was a sieve and to top it off they really cut out any designed run plays for him because of the injuries he played with almost all season.  I think to answer that question you need look no further than his time at Penn State where they would use him to sub in for goal line packages and have him run.

in his first year, he had Liam Coen as his offensive coordinator.  Coen left to take the same position with the Rams and UK brought in Rich Scangarello from the 49ers to run a similar system.  Scangarello couldn’t quite put things together and Coen is now back.  So a bit of a mixed bag there, but he does have experience in a pro style system unlike some of the other QB candidates.

Based on his build and arm talent, the obvious best case comp is Josh Allen. But remember… in Allen’s first two years, plenty of people were calling him a bust.

Ultimately, he’s like any other QB not named Manning or Luck… it’s a toss up.

[Maithanet]

15 hours ago, DMC said:

Wow Chase Young really fell off a cliff, huh?  Just saw the Commanders aren't picking up his fifth year option.  Makes sense considering the cap hit, and it's mostly due to him not being able to stay healthy, but damn.

His 5th year option is the highest possible since he was both the #2 pick and made a pro bowl his rookie year.  Year 2 was lost because he tore up his knee and in year 3 had some other minor issues and was probably not 100% from the knee. 

I don't know if he'll end up being as good as he was prognosticated to be, but if he stays healthy and has 10+ sacks this year, he'll be looking at an absolutely massive contract (from Washington or someone else). 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

46 minutes ago, Rhom said:

Your -107 is a bit deceiving.  He ran well his first season at UK.  The offensive line was better then though. This year, the O line was a sieve and to top it off they really cut out any designed run plays for him because of the injuries he played with almost all season.  I think to answer that question you need look no further than his time at Penn State where they would use him to sub in for goal line packages and have him run.

Based on his build and arm talent, the obvious best case comp is Josh Allen. But remember… in Allen’s first two years, plenty of people were calling him a bust.

Even then his running numbers were bad. He did score more TDs as junior, but even then he was not a threat to run which to me eliminates Allen as a comp, plus he's not as big as him either.

[DMC]

29 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

His 5th year option is the highest possible since he was both the #2 pick and made a pro bowl his rookie year.

Yeah I understand the cap hit was something like $17.5 million so definitely makes sense on the Commanders' end to just see if he can stay healthy this season before committing.  Just, was surprising.

[grozeng]

I need to stop reading draft websites.  I have seen the Jets:

1) Taking Broderick Jones (seems to be consensus)
2) Taking Skoronski (ironically, one site had GB taking him just to say F-you to the Jets)
3) Taking a WR
4) Trading down with Minnesota so they can take Herndon with 15

It's driving me a little crazy.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

46 minutes ago, grozeng said:

I need to stop reading draft websites.  I have seen the Jets:

1) Taking Broderick Jones (seems to be consensus)
2) Taking Skoronski (ironically, one site had GB taking him just to say F-you to the Jets)
3) Taking a WR
4) Trading down with Minnesota so they can take Herndon with 15

It's driving me a little crazy.

Please god no!!!

[grozeng]

32 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Please god no!!!

I knew you world appreciate that one.  I kind of hope the Jets do trade down, but it won't happen.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

15 minutes ago, grozeng said:

I knew you world appreciate that one.  I kind of hope the Jets do trade down, but it won't happen.

I think you meant to say Hendon Hooker, who most people have as the 5th best QB in the draft. It would make no sense for them to draft him in the first round, but there are rumors they might move up to get him or take him if he falls to us. Hooker is 25 and ready to start right now. I'm typically out on older prospects in general and this one makes no sense unless they already have the framework of a trade to deal Kirk. If they're going to move, take a swing like the Niners and go get Richardson if he falls out of the top 5. He needs to sit for a year anyways and Kirk has one year left on his deal. That makes a lot of sense. Getting Hooker just seems like a terrible idea. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Lamar signs with the Ravens. Details coming soon. 

[grozeng]

37 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I think you meant to say Hendon Hooker, who most people have as the 5th best QB in the draft. It would make no sense for them to draft him in the first round, but there are rumors they might move up to get him or take him if he falls to us. Hooker is 25 and ready to start right now. I'm typically out on older prospects in general and this one makes no sense unless they already have the framework of a trade to deal Kirk. If they're going to move, take a swing like the Niners and go get Richardson if he falls out of the top 5. He needs to sit for a year anyways and Kirk has one year left on his deal. That makes a lot of sense. Getting Hooker just seems like a terrible idea. 

Sorry, found the article.  It was from 3am today and had the Vikings trading up to get Richardson at 15 not Hooker.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

38 minutes ago, grozeng said:

Sorry, found the article.  It was from 3am today and had the Vikings trading up to get Richardson at 15 not Hooker.

Now I'm here for that. Not sure what it costs to move up eight spots, but it can't be that much.

 

Also, Lamar's deal is for $260M over five years, $185 guaranteed. 

Edited April 27, 2023 by Tywin et al.

[Jace, Extat]

Only five years you say???

That's less than half-of-a Winds of Winter wait. 

Edited April 27, 2023 by Secretary of Eumenes

[Rhom]

Taking Stroud and then trading right back in for pick three?!!?

Have yourself a draft DeMeco!

[DanteGabriel]

Wow, bold move, Houston. I dig it.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

So much for the Vikes getting Richardson. I'd have a really hard time taking him that high considering he has horrible mechanics and terrible accuracy.

Levis isn't going to last much longer. 

6 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said:

Wow, bold move, Houston. I dig it.

I don't. CJ at two makes a ton of sense, but they need so much at like every position. Trading up is a big risk.

[Rhom]

Richardson at four?!!?

You take the one guy Levis legitimately outplayed?!!?