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Ukraine: Breakthroughs… the vast majority of us hope…


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46 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Some reports of a direct armoured clash on the outskirts of Urozhaine, with Russian tanks defeated. Unclear if they were destroyed or withdrew. Ukrainian tanks have been seen firing on Russian strongpoints in the outskirts of town. A direct Ukrainian infantry assault on the town centre was apparently repulsed, but these attacks seem to be designed to get Russian strongpoints to reveal themselves, to be zeroed by artillery. Ukrainian forces are also apparently attacking the town on three axes of advance, causing the overstretched defenders problems.

Russian Telegram is anticipating a withdrawal or even a surrender because the bulk of the troops holding the town are the Vostok battalion of the DPR, which is experienced but heavily degraded in combat ability by months of constant contact.

Some rumours that both Russia and Wagner have refused to pay Belarus for hosting its Wagner forces, and as a result several Wagner groups have been bussed back across the border. The reporting on that is iffy, though.

I’ve seen the Wagner report a few times; apparently Belarus thought Russianwould be paying Wagner, only to learn Belarus was expected to.

Also seen a tweet that towns and villages near kupiansk (sp) have been evacuated. Officially due to artillery strikes, with Ukr claiming the enemy attacks have been repulsed, but I have to wonder…

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Not sure if this is the best/right thread for this, but Ukraine invasion critic and SF writer Dmitry Glukkovsky's been sentenced to 8 years in prison for criticising the Russian government's actions: 

https://www.pcgamer.com/metro-2033-author-dmitry-glukhovsky-sentenced-to-8-years-in-prison-for-criticizing-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/

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3 hours ago, IlyaP said:

Not sure if this is the best/right thread for this, but Ukraine invasion critic and SF writer Dmitry Glukkovsky's been sentenced to 8 years in prison for criticising the Russian government's actions: 

https://www.pcgamer.com/metro-2033-author-dmitry-glukhovsky-sentenced-to-8-years-in-prison-for-criticizing-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/

This makes me furious. 

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48 minutes ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

Supposed leaked document outlining Russian government fears of a VDV revolt. No idea if genuine but the VDV have been pissed off for a while

What's left of them, that is.

Haven't they also redirected them to the meatgrindiest meatgrinders after their threat of mutiny in case of officer replacement? Seems not much news that Russia has been trying to kill them off for daring to speak up.

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14 hours ago, House Balstroko said:

This makes me furious. 

Good news is that he is not in Russia, and was sentenced in absentia.

The fourth power unit at the Zaporizhzhia NPP has been switched off following a failure in its coolant system. Fortunately the plant was never in any danger as the problem was seen and rectified in good time.

Heavy fighting continues in Urozhaine:

Massive Ukrainian artillery strikes levelling Russian strongpoints in the centre of town. This isn't a softly-softly "surround them, starve them and they'll leave," operation, but a full-on assault.

Edited by Werthead
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The ruble-dollar exchange rate has dropped below 1:100. Lots of gnashing of teeth in Russian economic circles, but again unclear if this is the start of a catastrophic collapse in the Russian economy or a short-term teething problem whilst their economy rebalances.

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25 minutes ago, Wilbur said:

It sure seems like the Kerch Bridge received some attention today.

Traffic has been stopped, air defenses engaged, and smoke is still rising from at least one point along its length.

Russians are claiming th smoke is their smokescreen, but some are saying thisbisnthe white smoke while dark snokenxan also be seen

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Because of the increase in tempo in fighting in recent days, Russian losses are exceeding 500 a day, based on Ukrainian estimates and Russian communication intercepts. This is a remarkable figure to be losing in defence, though half that of Russia's heaviest losses in offensive action. Ukraine has not been disclosing is own losses on the offence, though.

A batch of new recruits from the Moscow Region arrived at the front and were immediately sent to the front line without training, resulting in a mini-revolt whilst they demanded better equipment and preparedness before fighting. A Russian Orthodox priest went to the LPR to assess the spiritual well-being of the troops there only to be told, "we need bodies, not priests," was handed a gun and told to go to the front. Meanwhile, Russian troops have been going through Hornostaivka, occupied Kherson Oblast, searching buildings for deserters. Numerous deserters have apparently holed up in abandoned buildings behind the front line whilst they try to find ways back to Russia.

Russian analysts and milbloggers on Telegrams believe that Ukraine has concentred enormous reserves of shells and ammunition in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and can maintain offensive efforts there for some time to come. They also believe that Urozhaine cannot be held by the current forces and they will have to withdraw imminently to avoid being surrounded. They also report increasing effectiveness from Ukrainian EW systems, disrupting communications in that area.

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The Russians launched a heavy assault on Andriivka, Donetsk Oblast but the Ukrainians saw the assault forming up and were able to hit it, destroying 2 T-90Ms. The rest of the attack was held off.

The Ukrainians have resumed their assault down the main "spine of towns" in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (starting at Velyka Novosilka in the far north), having taken Staromaiorske a few weeks ago. There's heavy bombing of Russian positions in Staromiynivka. The situation in Zavitne Bazannya, the settlement between the two, is unclear but heavy fighting is ongoing.

It also looks like Urozhaine has been abandoned by Russian forces, who are retreating south-west to those exact same settlements, which Ukraine may have already cut off behind them. Some indications of massive cluster bomb attacks on the Russian forces south of Urozhaine resulting in heavy losses. Unclear if the Russians can reach Staromiynivka or might have to Patton-wheel south to get back to the main lines (possibly involving going right through their own minefields).

Milbloggers are castigating the DPR troops and the Naval Infantry Brigades for losing Urozhaine and Novodonetske. Which is an interesting choice given the NIBs have been involved in heavy fighting on the front for the duration of the war and are probably as pissed off at this point as the VDVs, and the DPR and LPR troops are already fucked off at being "illegally" sent far outside the declared borders of their areas of operation. Apparently the 155th NIB is in action, despite being Ship of Theseused at least twice during the war to date.

Civil unrest in Makhachkala, the capital of Dagestan on the Caspian Sea. There's been rioting after water and electricity utilities failed, with 12 reported dead and 70 injured. A gas station was blown up earlier today.

I remember late last year we were talking about the order to use breaks sparingly in civil aircraft in Russia to minimise spare parts usage. That is now far worse, with a new order from Aeroflot to have planes land using reverse thrust only with brakes completely deactivated. Some Russian airports are being advised to prepare for overrun contingencies.

There was also an attempted arson attack on an admin building in Rostov, but that was thwarted by police.

Edited by Werthead
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22 minutes ago, Werthead said:

order to use breaks sparingly in civil aircraft in Russia to minimise spare parts usage. That is now far worse, with a new order from Aeroflot to have planes land using reverse thrust only with brakes completely deactivated. Some Russian airports are being advised to prepare for overrun contingencies.

Will Aeroflot be allowed to operate internationally… at all… with planes in conditions that poor?

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Just now, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Will Aeroflot be allowed to operate internationally… at all… with planes in conditions that poor?

I think it's their planes they use for internal flights, mostly overseas models whose spare parts they cannot source.

They're not stupid enough to risk causing a massive crash somewhere like Delhi or Beijing and eroding more goodwill.

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