Why isn't LF putting his chips on Sweetrobin?

[Alester Florent]

As per title. Yes, poor little Robert is rather sickly, but he's made it this far and there's no particular reason he should drop dead any time soon with proper care. And he's surely going to be easier to control than Harry, a much older prospect who owes LF nothing. Robert is too young for a marriage to Sansa right now, but a betrothal could surely be arranged, and LF is already regent of the Vale in any case. 

If he revealed Sansa's identity now and announced her betrothal to Sweetrobin, would any of the (apparently pro-Stark) Vale lords actually object? And he could do that while still retaining his full power as regent, and potentially increasing his power and influence if the Vale lords felt he was on their side. It seems a rather more straightforward approach than a convoluted plan involving Harry and Alayne and in the meantime having to dispose of Robert in a way that won't get pinned on him. 

Of course we don't know what LF's plan actually is, only what he's told or implied to Sansa, and when he arrives in the Vale the anti-Lannister/BOKL cause is at an all-time low so the timing is off for the relevant revelation and execution, but as of the end of ADwD the ground has shifted significantly with the arrival of Aegon and Euron, the death of Kevan, the ascendancy of the Faith, and the northern uprising against the Boltons, so the Lannister/BOKL cause seems to be itself in serious trouble and if the Vale is going to enter the fray against it then the moment would seem opportune. 

Edited October 4, 2023 by Alester Florent

[csuszka1948]

I think that the primary reason is Doylist: the Sweetrobin-Sansa match may have indeed been planned in ASOS, just scrapping 5-year gap has made it impossible, that's why GRRM introduced Harry the Heir in Feast.

[Lord of Raventree Hall]

1 hour ago, Alester Florent said:

As per title. Yes, poor little Robert is rather sickly, but he's made it this far and there's no particular reason he should drop dead any time soon with proper care. And he's surely going to be easier to control than Harry, a much older prospect who owes LF nothing. Robert is too young for a marriage to Sansa right now, but a betrothal could surely be arranged, and LF is already regent of the Vale in any case. 

If he revealed Sansa's identity now and announced her betrothal to Sweetrobin, would any of the (apparently pro-Stark) Vale lords actually object? And he could do that while still retaining his full power as regent, and potentially increasing his power and influence if the Vale lords felt he was on their side. It seems a rather more straightforward approach than a convoluted plan involving Harry and Alayne and in the meantime having to dispose of Robert in a way that won't get pinned on him. 

Of course we don't know what LF's plan actually is, only what he's told or implied to Sansa, and when he arrives in the Vale the anti-Lannister/BOKL cause is at an all-time low so the timing is off for the relevant revelation and execution, but as of the end of ADwD the ground has shifted significantly with the arrival of Aegon and Euron, the death of Kevan, the ascendancy of the Faith, and the northern uprising against the Boltons, so the Lannister/BOKL cause seems to be itself in serious trouble and if the Vale is going to enter the fray against it then the moment would seem opportune. 

Honestly, good question. My best guess...he just hates everything to do with Lysa. He kind of disdains her, which...maybe makes sense. I don't know. Their dynamic is really strange. Like, on one hand...okay, let's say Lysa was a man...and then she gave a woman positions and power in order for that woman to sleep with him. That seems....obviously bad. However...on the other hand, Lysa seems to actually believe Petyr loves her (in some way), and he seems fully on board to get her to believe that. Also though, Lysa raped Petyr right? Like, he thought it was Cat...which makes it probably rape. Honestly, it's fucked up. Maybe it's as simple as that though. Robert is Lysa's son, and he kind of hates Lysa and anything about her. He is...a fairly cruel person. 

Or it's something else entirely, all your points make sense to me logically. I feel like controlling Sweetrobin is probably easier than Harry the Heir as well...maybe even making himself kind of a permanent adviser if he wants to stay in the Vale. 

[Nevets]

13 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

As per title. Yes, poor little Robert is rather sickly, but he's made it this far and there's no particular reason he should drop dead any time soon with proper care. And he's surely going to be easier to control than Harry, a much older prospect who owes LF nothing. Robert is too young for a marriage to Sansa right now, but a betrothal could surely be arranged, and LF is already regent of the Vale in any case. 

If he revealed Sansa's identity now and announced her betrothal to Sweetrobin, would any of the (apparently pro-Stark) Vale lords actually object? And he could do that while still retaining his full power as regent, and potentially increasing his power and influence if the Vale lords felt he was on their side. It seems a rather more straightforward approach than a convoluted plan involving Harry and Alayne and in the meantime having to dispose of Robert in a way that won't get pinned on him. 

Of course we don't know what LF's plan actually is, only what he's told or implied to Sansa, and when he arrives in the Vale the anti-Lannister/BOKL cause is at an all-time low so the timing is off for the relevant revelation and execution, but as of the end of ADwD the ground has shifted significantly with the arrival of Aegon and Euron, the death of Kevan, the ascendancy of the Faith, and the northern uprising against the Boltons, so the Lannister/BOKL cause seems to be itself in serious trouble and if the Vale is going to enter the fray against it then the moment would seem opportune. 

I think his plan is something like this:  Sansa marries Harry and has his child, preferably a boy.  Harry dies, and Sansa eventually marries Littlefinger.  Sweetrobin then dies, leaving Sansa's child as heir, and LF as guardian.  In the meantime, he keeps Sweetrobin drugged, so he's weak and compliant, and the lords of the Vale will be relieved at his departure.

Or something like that.  This would likely require some collusion on Sansa's part, which he might expect but wouldn't get.

[Alden Rothack]

12 hours ago, csuszka1948 said:

I think that the primary reason is Doylist: the Sweetrobin-Sansa match may have indeed been planned in ASOS, just scrapping 5-year gap has made it impossible, that's why GRRM introduced Harry the Heir in Feast.

why, isn't Sansa closer in age to Sweetrobin

[Alester Florent]

46 minutes ago, Alden Rothack said:

why, isn't Sansa closer in age to Sweetrobin

Sansa's about 13 as of ADwD; Sweetrobin is eight. Harry is about 17. So the age gap is about the same either way, but the mauturity gap is much bigger between Sansa and Robert than between Sansa and Harry.

[Alden Rothack]

32 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

Sansa's about 13 as of ADwD; Sweetrobin is eight. Harry is about 17. So the age gap is about the same either way, but the mauturity gap is much bigger between Sansa and Robert than between Sansa and Harry.

Harry may be older than that

Sansa being the older one serves Littlefinger better, the longer the marriage has to wait the better for him, that is after all the Tyrells plan and it would have worked if Cersei wasn't a paranoid twit with a god complex

[Hippocras]

15 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

 

A few things here:

1. First, revealing Sansa means declaring war against King Tommen and the Lannisters, de facto. Most of the Vale lords would not at all object to a Stark match, but they are not the reason her identity is kept secret.

2. Remember, LF was also weak and sickly as a child. My head canon says that SR is actually Littlefinger's son, and that he IS, in a very roundabout way, trying to advance SR. It is just that doing so is tricky as things stand currently. He needs to SEEM to support Harry to shore up support among those who would prefer Harry. He needs to give SR some time to thrive now that he is clear of his mother's toxic influence.

3. LF has no problem with marrying off Sansa a hundred times if need be, to accumulate power. But ultimately he wants to marry her himself. So obviously whoever he ACTUALLY supports can't also be a rival for Sansa's hand. If they marry Sansa by his design, then he plans for them to die.

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

14 hours ago, csuszka1948 said:

I think that the primary reason is Doylist: the Sweetrobin-Sansa match may have indeed been planned in ASOS, just scrapping 5-year gap has made it impossible, that's why GRRM introduced Harry the Heir in Feast.

Actually, GRRM talked about Harry the Heir before he abandoned the 5 year gap. Although it’s unclear what Harry’s role was supposed to be at that point.

[Craving Peaches]

Risky because SR could die? It could get worse.

[Lee-Sensei]

I don't think Littlefinger is really planning to marry of Sansa to Harry. Harry is an adult and doesn't need Littlefinger around. He also seems to be broadly similar to Brandon. LF's power in the Vale is almost entirely rooted in him being the regent for Robert Arryn as his step father now that he's killed Lysa. I can't see him giving that up.

[John Suburbs]

22 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

As per title. Yes, poor little Robert is rather sickly, but he's made it this far and there's no particular reason he should drop dead any time soon with proper care. And he's surely going to be easier to control than Harry, a much older prospect who owes LF nothing. Robert is too young for a marriage to Sansa right now, but a betrothal could surely be arranged, and LF is already regent of the Vale in any case. 

If he revealed Sansa's identity now and announced her betrothal to Sweetrobin, would any of the (apparently pro-Stark) Vale lords actually object? And he could do that while still retaining his full power as regent, and potentially increasing his power and influence if the Vale lords felt he was on their side. It seems a rather more straightforward approach than a convoluted plan involving Harry and Alayne and in the meantime having to dispose of Robert in a way that won't get pinned on him. 

Of course we don't know what LF's plan actually is, only what he's told or implied to Sansa, and when he arrives in the Vale the anti-Lannister/BOKL cause is at an all-time low so the timing is off for the relevant revelation and execution, but as of the end of ADwD the ground has shifted significantly with the arrival of Aegon and Euron, the death of Kevan, the ascendancy of the Faith, and the northern uprising against the Boltons, so the Lannister/BOKL cause seems to be itself in serious trouble and if the Vale is going to enter the fray against it then the moment would seem opportune. 

Easier to control? He's a snotty, petulant little brat who throws the contents of his chamber pot at you if he doesn't want to do what he's told.

Harry owes LF everything, especially if he lands Sansa Stark, who will likely come with a nice fat dowry, just like the Grafton's new bride. 

Sweetrobin is only necessary at this point because LF needs him to control the LDs. Once that problem is resolved, he can go -- and no one would know that his untimely death is unusual in the slightest (although some might suspect but cannot prove).

[Loose Bolt]

Sansa (Lannister?) is legal wife of Tyrion. So unless High Septon cancels her marriage or Tyrion dies she cannot marry somebody else. After all in Vale the Faith of 7 has more political power than other kingdoms. Or there is a possibility that Sansa's status as married woman limits what kind of moves Littlefinger can do with her.

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

9 minutes ago, Loose Bolt said:

Sansa (Lannister?) is legal wife of Tyrion. So unless High Septon cancels her marriage or Tyrion dies she cannot marry somebody else. After all in Vale the Faith of 7 has more political power than other kingdoms. Or there is a possibility that Sansa's status as married woman limits what kind of moves Littlefinger can do with her.

Yeah, how does Littlefinger plan to deal with that?

[Alester Florent]

47 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Yeah, how does Littlefinger plan to deal with that?

Annulment for lack of consummation, presumably. 

[chrisdaw]

He can galvanise the Vale (right now) behind Harry while influencing Harry to do his bidding, he can't galvanise the Vale behind Robert while also controlling Robert. To the Vale lords Robert is a puppet with LF at the strings and they wouldn't just go along with any plans whereas Harry would be a man grown making his own decisions and LF would be serving and advising at Harry's pleasure, the Vale lords will all do what Harry wants and mostly with enthusiasm.

Edited October 5, 2023 by chrisdaw

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

18 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

Annulment for lack of consummation, presumably. 

That would probably be quite difficult to prove, though.

[Alester Florent]

8 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

That would probably be quite difficult to prove, though.

I get the impression that it was well known at court that Tyrion wasn't sharing her bed and didn't Shae give evidence to that effect at Tyrion's trial? Besides, Tyrion isn't around to dispute it. It should be less controversial than the Renly/Margaery thing really.

[Nevets]

15 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

I get the impression that it was well known at court that Tyrion wasn't sharing her bed and didn't Shae give evidence to that effect at Tyrion's trial? Besides, Tyrion isn't around to dispute it. It should be less controversial than the Renly/Margaery thing really.

GRRM likes to make things as difficult as possible for his main characters.  So my guess is that if Sansa wants an annulment, she will have difficulty obtaining one.  Given the apparent frequency of torn maidenheads especially for nobility, my guess is the physical evidence will be ambiguous, so it will probably be a political decision by whoever handles it.  In other words, Martin can do as he wishes.  Of course, if she doesn't want one, it will probably sail through with no difficulty.  Remaining married could have its advantages, like not being pushed into a marriage she doesn't want.

[Hippocras]

19 hours ago, Loose Bolt said:

Sansa (Lannister?) is legal wife of Tyrion. So unless High Septon cancels her marriage or Tyrion dies she cannot marry somebody else. After all in Vale the Faith of 7 has more political power than other kingdoms. Or there is a possibility that Sansa's status as married woman limits what kind of moves Littlefinger can do with her.

LF has been trying to get Tyrion killed since the beginning of the series. His plan remains for the dwarf to die. He is not planning annulment because he is convinced he will succeed imminently in killing Sansa's current husband.