Israel Hamas War XI -- Foggier and Foggier

[Kalbear]

2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I'd like to think that releasing all of the living hostages and returning the dead would have caused a pause or complete ceasefire sooner.

I don't think that's accurate at all. Netanyahu wasn't even saying that. 

2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Idk about that. Israel has taken a real hit in the West (there were always going to everywhere else, but they don't care about that). It seems like they've lost a lot of favor in Europe and it's declining in the US as well. I could be wrong, but much of the sympathy they gained in the wake of the attacks has evaporated and to be fair, rightly so for many. 

They've taken a hit in terms of public support, but nothing in material support. And the net result of this in the US would be to get someone elected who will support Israel killing Palestinians even more than they already are. Oh noes, Netanyahu has to work with Trump? Yeah, that scares them, I'm sure. 

They've lost a ton of sympathy and it is hurting a lot of public opinion, but it isn't causing Israel the country any real issues. No military contracts are stopping. No support is stopping. In the US they're actually going against even more BDS policies. 

Why would Israel change?

2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Two idiots can have a good idea now and then. And they're not wrong to believe others in the region give zero fucks about the Palestinians and are happy to let them suffer. At least what I'm suggesting has some sort of end goal with a manageable peace which is more that what most people are suggesting. 

I don't really want to get into why your fantasy idea is unreasonable and all the ways it is insulting and bad, but I will simply leave it with this: if a simple solution hasn't been done there are probably some real good reasons why. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

2 hours ago, Kalbear said:

I don't think that's accurate at all. Netanyahu wasn't even saying that. 

He sort of was, but it was clearly a negotiating tactic. 

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They've taken a hit in terms of public support, but nothing in material support. And the net result of this in the US would be to get someone elected who will support Israel killing Palestinians even more than they already are. Oh noes, Netanyahu has to work with Trump? Yeah, that scares them, I'm sure. 

They've lost a ton of sympathy and it is hurting a lot of public opinion, but it isn't causing Israel the country any real issues. No military contracts are stopping. No support is stopping. In the US they're actually going against even more BDS policies. 

Why would Israel change?

It hasn't hurt them in short term, but I wouldn't rule out this having lasting damage for Israel, especially if there isn't a significant change to their current government and that doesn't mean just getting rid of Netanyahu. I guess we'll find out though when the Israelis and Saudis get back to concrete normalization talks.

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I don't really want to get into why your fantasy idea is unreasonable and all the ways it is insulting and bad, but I will simply leave it with this: if a simple solution hasn't been done there are probably some real good reasons why. 

Obviously there are no good solutions, hence why I've argued what I'm suggesting might be the least bad option among numerous bad ones. No one state solution works, so you need to figure out a way to make a two (or more) state solution possible (not that I expect that to happen now or anytime soon), and I don't think making Gaza and the WB one unified Palestinian state is feasible. Therefore some tough choice will have to be made. Or you can do what most political leaders do these days and kick the can down the road and we'll be having this same conversation again just like we were having when I was a little kick. 

[Zorral]

11 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Or you can do what most political leaders do these days and kick the can down the road and we'll be having this same conversation again just like we were having when I was a little kick. 

With more violence, murders, hostages, torture, kidnappings and bombings.  Don't forget those!  Which have been the case for 3/4 of a century, since the beginning.

Edited November 27, 2023 by Zorral

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

10 minutes ago, Zorral said:

With more violence, murders, hostages, torture, kidnappings and bombings.  Don't forget those!  Which have been the case for 3/4 of a century, since the beginning.

That was far from the beginning.

But anyways, there is an obvious solution and it's making the WB a new state independent from Israel. Cleaning up some of the other stuff is really messy for each side and Israel is not going to let go of the settlements lightly even though they should. But that's the best option, especially if better leaders can be proper caretakers. Gaza is still the harder nut to crack. 

Edited November 27, 2023 by Tywin et al.

[Zorral]

3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

That was far from the beginning.

That's the beginning for this 3/4 century episode over these specific acres of the planet.

Edited November 27, 2023 by Zorral

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 minute ago, Zorral said:

That's the beginning for this 3/4 century episode over these specific acres of the planet.

So why not include the entire century, which accounts for many more massacres of Jews and them being forced out of the region? We can play this game forever which is why it's pointless, but if you accept one side's framing...

[Rippounet]

6 hours ago, Gorn said:

Here is the full text of his about his denial of the Cambodian genocide, "Distortions at Fourth Hand": https://chomsky.info/19770625/

Damn, he really screwed up on this one, and I suppose I can eat crow. I was fooled by later declarations/writings that were far from this line of argumentation. Thanks for setting the record straight.
In spite of all, the conclusion is not as bad as the rest: that it was difficult to be certain of what was happening, and that the US media has a habit of distorting the evidence available, thus promoting worldviews that end up being inaccurate and self-serving. He may have been disastrously wrong in his article, and yet somehow the conclusion still holds - ironically, it's not without relevance for this thread.
I'll take this as a cautionary tale about commenting on events with insufficient information. If he could be this wrong about an ongoing genocide, then surely no one is above making such mistakes.

[Bael's Bastard]

1 hour ago, Zorral said:

That's the beginning for this 3/4 century episode over these specific acres of the planet.

The episode that began with the Arabs of Palestine and abroad attempting to commit genocide & ethnic cleansing against the Jews of Palestine and the rest of MENA? That episode?

[mcbigski]

I feel like Hamas is thankful for the break to rearm and regroup, but I suspect they're still chomping at the bit to get back to the baby beheadings, rape, civilian murder, and intentional human shield casualties.  Especially the last gets great engagement on the social medias.  

[kissdbyfire]

Yes, Musk should be persona non grata in Israel since his platform is such a cesspool of antisemitism and racism and every flavour of vile bigotry. Netanyahu disagrees, obviously. I suppose they deserve each other's company.

 

[Bael's Bastard]

Another proof that Bibi is absolute garbage that only cares about himself and will sacrifice anyone and anything for his own bullshit. Musk has no business being welcomed to Israel when he not only enables but personally spreads Jew-hatred on his platform.

Edited November 28, 2023 by Bael's Bastard

[Craving Peaches]

Elon also previously said he would give the people in Gaza access to Starlink to help with the connection blackouts, now he is saying he will only do that with Israel's approval. He allows so much misinformation to spread I don't know why anyone wants to talk with him except money or something. Rishi Sunak was recently talking to him about AI. Coming from the leader of the company whose self-driving cars routinely crash, sometimes with fatal results.

Edited November 28, 2023 by Craving Peaches

[Altherion]

4 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

Yes, Musk should be persona non grata in Israel since his platform is such a cesspool of antisemitism and racism and every flavour of vile bigotry. Netanyahu disagrees, obviously. I suppose they deserve each other's company.

Much as I dislike Netanyahu, this is simply pragmatism. In the past, Musk has indicated that he would provide Starlink access to Hamas (he didn't phrase it that way, but if there's Starlink in Gaza, it's completely obvious who would get first dibs on it). Everyone has seen how Starlink can be used for military purposes in Ukraine and Israel has absolutely no desire to see it in the hands of Hamas. The Israeli government decided that participating in Musk's attempt not to look quite as antisemitic is a price they're willing to pay to have some say in whether Starlink is deployed in the war zone.

In other words, unpleasant as they must almost certainly find him, Musk has some real power and the Israelis are not in a good position to antagonize him.

[Kalbear]

Another good example of why Starlink should almost certainly be made a public good; having one person essentially control whether terrorist organizations get access is an obvious national security problem. 

[Kalbear]

In other news, this poster points out some pretty scary values on the math so far in the war:

https://mastodon.ar.al/@aral/111488032996361458

Quote

 

Israel’s military estimates that out of the 13,000 or so Palestinians it has killed in seven weeks, 1,000 - 2,000 of them are Hamas fighters.

They estimate about 30,000 Hamas fighters in total and their stated goal is to wipe out Hamas entirely.

Given the current ratio of deaths, how many Palestinians will they have to kill to wipe out Hamas?

Answer: 195,000 - 390,000

 

 

[Craving Peaches]

38 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

In other news, this poster points out some pretty scary values on the math so far in the war:

https://mastodon.ar.al/@aral/111488032996361458

 

Going by those values, at least ~8% of the total population of Gaza would be killed to wipe out Hamas.

[Craving Peaches]

2 hours ago, Kalbear said:

having one person essentially control whether terrorist organizations get access is an obvious national security problem. 

They would also need to install modules on the ground though.

[Relic]

4 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

Elon also previously said he would give the people in Gaza access to Starlink to help with the connection blackouts, now he is saying he will only do that with Israel's approval. He allows so much misinformation to spread I don't know why anyone wants to talk with him except money or something. Rishi Sunak was recently talking to him about AI. Coming from the leader of the company whose self-driving cars routinely crash, sometimes with fatal results.

Kinda makes you wonders if the rate of Tesla crashes is higher among Jewish owners.

Also, fuck Elon.

Edited November 28, 2023 by Relic

[Kalbear]

51 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

They would also need to install modules on the ground though.

That's kind of the cool thing about Starlink - no, you don't. A whole lot of it is entirely portable. It is portable enough that it can be installed on drones using it as a guidance package.

[Altherion]

1 hour ago, Kalbear said:

In other news, this poster points out some pretty scary values on the math so far in the war:

This is somewhat pessimistic. If you look at the map, what the Israelis have done is told all the civilians to go south and have cut off Gaza City from the south of Gaza. Since most of the civilians are indeed gone and the fighting is mostly in the north, the number of civilian casualties should be much smaller than in the first few weeks of the war (and indeed you can see this in the numbers just before the truce).