Brains behind the chaos

[Sydney Mae]

Who was or who were the masteminds behind Robert's Rebellion?  It wasn't Robert!  The Maesters.  Petyr Baelish.  Rickard Stark.  Jon Arryn.  Brandon Stark.  It could be anyone of those guys though Brandon was not smart enough to plot something like the rebellion.  There is another who could have done it in his own devilish way,  Mance Rayder.

A black brother was present during the tourney at Harrenhal.  I can't claim it was him without further evidence but it is a good possibility.  Brandon and Lyanna were outdoors people who frequently strayed from Winterfell like they were homeless dogs.  Mance is also known to stray far from the Watch as if a wolf in search of a mate.  It is possible the three have met before the tournament.  What song could bring a hardened tomboy to tears?  A song that reminded her of a secret lover who also sang the same song.  Rhaegar's song reminded Lyanna of her secret lover, Mance.  How would a southern boy like Rhaegar know of the significance of blue roses?  Even the Stark kids were ignorant of the meaning and the historical ties to the Wildlings.  Mance would have known the story of Bael and the blue rose of Winterfell.  Blue roses are not common.  Where would Rhaegar find the flowers?  Not in a random patch of ground.  Mance would know and brought the flowers to the tourney.  He intended to use it on Lyanna but found a gullible Rhaegar would work better for his plans to cause disruption among the ruling class.

Mance was born a wildling and remains a wildling at heart.  The wall failed to tame the wild out of him.  He would have been in his late teens to maybe his twenties at the time.  Old enough to know the only chance the Freefolk has of living on better land is destroying the social order which governed Westeros.  He would need to start with the Targaryens who are the most noble of all the nobles whose almost divine authority held Westeros together.  A wicked smart man he was able to manipulate Rhaegar and Lyanna to further fuel the hate between the families.  His height check him out to be the Knight of the Laughing Tree but he was the mind behind the deception.  He gave the blue roses to Rhaegar and told him what to do. This is the way to pull Lyanna away from Robert he says and breaks the conspiracy to oust the rulers.  He says this is the way to save the Dragon Dynasty and preserve the kingdom. Lyanna could have been in on it after thinking it through.  She was desperate to not marry Robert.  Mance won the prince with his songs and stories.  The superstitious prince believed him because he was a Brother of the Watch like his favorite kin Maester Aemon.  Mance lied and said he was sent by Aemon to deliver a message.  Mance knew about the correspondence between the two and intercepted the letters.  He knew which buttons to push in Rhaegar, Brandon, Lyanna, and Robert.

Mance was invested enough to risk his life to spy on Robert and the Starks inside Winterfell.  He is fascinated with the Starks and drawn to the crypts where Brandon and Lyanna are buried.  Lyanna had help in leaving Winterfell.  Who best to help than her old lover Mance.  Mance sends pregnant Lyanna to his victim, Prince Rhaegar.  A traveling singer spreads the news to all he met that the daughter of Rickard Stark was kidnapped by the prince.  He was the one who tipped Ned Stark to the whereabouts of Rhaegar, Lyanna, and Arthur Dayne.

The horn he had was a trojan he used to fool Jon.  Mance used it to get his people through the wall and into the kingdom.  He was the mystery man who met Theon inside Winterfell.  He was the one who murdered to sow discord inside between the Boltons, Manderlys, and Freys.  The Battle of Winterfell will weaken Roose and Stannis while Mance still has men he can call on.  His free folk will beat the winner of the battle and he will be the new king of the north.  He has enough people to secure the Neck and prevent an assault coming from the lower kingdom.

[Craving Peaches]

Reads like an in-universe conspiracy theorist apart from here:

1 hour ago, Sydney Mae said:

the Targaryens who are the most noble of all the nobles whose almost divine authority held Westeros together.

Where it sounds like a Targaryen propagandist.

5/10.

[The Lord of the Crossing]

Sam's horn could be the real one.  He gives it a big blow and Oldtown comes crashing down.  It's too far to bring down the wall but the nearest tall structure is in Oldtown.

There was a Southron conspiracy and I don't think Mance Rayder was involved.  Ricard, Robert, and Jon Arryn were plotting to usurp the throne. 

[Darth Sidious]

Mance Rayder + Lyanna Stark = Jon Snow is a theory which I believe offers the best explanation for now. However the chaos doesn’t need a mastermind. All the requirements to push Westeros to chaos exists in Lannister ambition, Stark lusting for revenge, Starks breaking oaths, Greyjoys want to rob instead of farm, and Jaime’s stupidity. 

[StarkTullies]

21 hours ago, Darth Sidious said:

All the requirements to push Westeros to chaos exists

This thread is about the chaos of Robert's Rebellion.  And the only requirement for that was a mad Targaryen king.

21 hours ago, Darth Sidious said:

Starks breaking oaths

What oaths did the Starks break leading up to Robert's Rebellion?  Lyanna's broken "oath" to serial cheater Robert?  No, she wasn't married to Robert yet; it was Rhaegar Targaryen who broke his oath to Elia by getting involved with Lyanna (if it was consensual), and he is guilty of far more than just oath-breaking if it wasn't consensual.

21 hours ago, Darth Sidious said:

Stark lusting for revenge

Robert's Rebellion did not start specifically because Rhaegar "kidnapped" Lyanna, or because Mad King Aerys burned Rickard Stark alive, but because Mad King Aerys then called for Robert and Ned's execution as well.  Ned Stark was hardly "lusting for revenge" by not offering himself up to a tyrant for an unjust execution.

21 hours ago, Darth Sidious said:

Greyjoys want to rob instead of farm

What do the Greyjoys have to do with Robert's Rebellion?

21 hours ago, Darth Sidious said:

Jaime’s stupidity

Jaime has done many stupid and evil things, but his only "stupidity" in regard to Robert's Rebellion was remaining loyal to Mad King Aerys for as long as he did before finally doing the right thing and saving Kings Landing from that vile maniac.

21 hours ago, Darth Sidious said:

Lannister ambition

Yes, Lannister ambition is a recurring problem throughout Westeros history, including during Robert's Rebellion.  They didn't start the chaos of Robert's Rebellion (the topic of this thread), however.  They chose sides after the winning side was determined.  They would have eagerly fought for the Targaryens if they hadn't lost at the Trident.

21 hours ago, Darth Sidious said:

Mance Rayder + Lyanna Stark = Jon Snow is a theory which I believe offers the best explanation

There is only one explanation for the three remaining Targaryen kingsgaurds guarding Lyanna's infant son rather than Prince Viserys... and the explanation is not that Mance Rayder is Jon's father.  Why would they guard Mance Rayder's son?  (Answer: they wouldn't.)

[Hippocras]

god people can be weird.

[Groo]

3 hours ago, StarkTullies said:

Robert's Rebellion did not start specifically because Rhaegar "kidnapped" Lyanna, or because Mad King Aerys burned Rickard Stark alive, but because Mad King Aerys then called for Robert and Ned's execution as well.  Ned Stark was hardly "lusting for revenge" by not offering himself up to a tyrant for an unjust execution.

I couldn't agree more.

Brandon hot-headedly came charging into King's Landing demanding the crown prince. Regardless of whether Brandon was justified, no one was going to have a problem with the king arresting Brandon for doing that. Burning Rickard Stark was more problematic but could have still been contained as a purely Taragaryen/Stark problem. Most lords throughout the land would have been fine sitting on the sidelines for that, especially if competing stories were being told about what happened. Plenty of lords would happily have sided with the king if it meant a chance for spoils at the expense of the Starks.

But the Mad King couldn't help himself. He'd already killed the heir to the Vale. Now he wanted to kill the heir to the Stormlands, who hadn't done anything, and the new heir to the North, who also hadn't done anything. Of course, many lords rebelled against that. Who was safe and how far would the Mad King go? There was a lot of buildup but that was the actual act that triggered the rebellion.

[Angel Eyes]

On 1/16/2024 at 8:04 PM, The Lord of the Crossing said:

Sam's horn could be the real one.  He gives it a big blow and Oldtown comes crashing down.  It's too far to bring down the wall but the nearest tall structure is in Oldtown.

There was a Southron conspiracy and I don't think Mance Rayder was involved.  Ricard, Robert, and Jon Arryn were plotting to usurp the throne. 

Rickard was simply stupid, not plotting. That alliance via Robert and Lyanna's marriage would probably have fallen apart like a house of cards.

[Groo]

23 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

Rickard was simply stupid, not plotting. That alliance via Robert and Lyanna's marriage would probably have fallen apart like a house of cards.

But Barbrey Dustin said Rickard had southron ambitions. That means it's the gospel truth. If one character says something it must be true. That character couldn't be wrong or lying or just stupid. Martin never has characters misunderstand what's happening around them or see things with their own internal bias and he certainly never has any of his characters lie.

[Angel Eyes]

2 minutes ago, Groo said:

But Barbrey Dustin said Rickard had southron ambitions. That means it's the gospel truth. If one character says something it must be true. That character couldn't be wrong or lying or just stupid. Martin never has characters misunderstand what's happening around them or see things with their own internal bias and he certainly never has any of his characters lie.

I left out the southron ambitions on purpose. But even if Rickard has southron ambitions on his mind, did he need to make a match for Lyanna with someone who was decidedly unsuitable not to mention on the other side of the country? He could have tried making one for Lyanna with Jaime (pre-Kingsguard) and Jaime would have an advantage because he was closer.

Edited January 22 by Angel Eyes

[Groo]

1 minute ago, Angel Eyes said:

I left out the southron ambitions on purpose. But even if Rickard has southron ambitions on his mind, did he need to make a match with someone who was decidedly unsuitable not to mention on the other side of the country?

You have a good point. Brandon marrying Catelyn makes plenty of sense if he did have southron ambitions. Lyanna marrying Robert not so much.

[H Wadsworth Longfellow]

On 1/16/2024 at 3:49 AM, Sydney Mae said:

Who was or who were the masteminds behind Robert's Rebellion?  It wasn't Robert!  The Maesters.  Petyr Baelish.  Rickard Stark.  Jon Arryn.  Brandon Stark.  It could be anyone of those guys though Brandon was not smart enough to plot something like the rebellion.  There is another who could have done it in his own devilish way,  Mance Rayder.

A black brother was present during the tourney at Harrenhal.  I can't claim it was him without further evidence but it is a good possibility.  Brandon and Lyanna were outdoors people who frequently strayed from Winterfell like they were homeless dogs.  Mance is also known to stray far from the Watch as if a wolf in search of a mate.  It is possible the three have met before the tournament.  What song could bring a hardened tomboy to tears?  A song that reminded her of a secret lover who also sang the same song.  Rhaegar's song reminded Lyanna of her secret lover, Mance.  How would a southern boy like Rhaegar know of the significance of blue roses?  Even the Stark kids were ignorant of the meaning and the historical ties to the Wildlings.  Mance would have known the story of Bael and the blue rose of Winterfell.  Blue roses are not common.  Where would Rhaegar find the flowers?  Not in a random patch of ground.  Mance would know and brought the flowers to the tourney.  He intended to use it on Lyanna but found a gullible Rhaegar would work better for his plans to cause disruption among the ruling class.

Mance was born a wildling and remains a wildling at heart.  The wall failed to tame the wild out of him.  He would have been in his late teens to maybe his twenties at the time.  Old enough to know the only chance the Freefolk has of living on better land is destroying the social order which governed Westeros.  He would need to start with the Targaryens who are the most noble of all the nobles whose almost divine authority held Westeros together.  A wicked smart man he was able to manipulate Rhaegar and Lyanna to further fuel the hate between the families.  His height check him out to be the Knight of the Laughing Tree but he was the mind behind the deception.  He gave the blue roses to Rhaegar and told him what to do. This is the way to pull Lyanna away from Robert he says and breaks the conspiracy to oust the rulers.  He says this is the way to save the Dragon Dynasty and preserve the kingdom. Lyanna could have been in on it after thinking it through.  She was desperate to not marry Robert.  Mance won the prince with his songs and stories.  The superstitious prince believed him because he was a Brother of the Watch like his favorite kin Maester Aemon.  Mance lied and said he was sent by Aemon to deliver a message.  Mance knew about the correspondence between the two and intercepted the letters.  He knew which buttons to push in Rhaegar, Brandon, Lyanna, and Robert.

Mance was invested enough to risk his life to spy on Robert and the Starks inside Winterfell.  He is fascinated with the Starks and drawn to the crypts where Brandon and Lyanna are buried.  Lyanna had help in leaving Winterfell.  Who best to help than her old lover Mance.  Mance sends pregnant Lyanna to his victim, Prince Rhaegar.  A traveling singer spreads the news to all he met that the daughter of Rickard Stark was kidnapped by the prince.  He was the one who tipped Ned Stark to the whereabouts of Rhaegar, Lyanna, and Arthur Dayne.

The horn he had was a trojan he used to fool Jon.  Mance used it to get his people through the wall and into the kingdom.  He was the mystery man who met Theon inside Winterfell.  He was the one who murdered to sow discord inside between the Boltons, Manderlys, and Freys.  The Battle of Winterfell will weaken Roose and Stannis while Mance still has men he can call on.  His free folk will beat the winner of the battle and he will be the new king of the north.  He has enough people to secure the Neck and prevent an assault coming from the lower kingdom.

Mance is the only one who could match Daenerys when it comes to intelligence and leadership.  Robb Stark is dead and gone.  Cersei, Aegon, Stannis, and Euron are not smart enough to prevent a Targaryen restoration.  Mance could become an obstacle.  Roose should give that wildling a swift execution before he gets away. 

[maesternewton]

On 1/15/2024 at 11:56 PM, Craving Peaches said:

Reads like an in-universe conspiracy theorist apart from here:

In a fictional fantasy world, which means it's not impossible in the slightest. 

[Craving Peaches]

8 hours ago, maesternewton said:

In a fictional fantasy world, which means it's not impossible in the slightest. 

There are a great deal many things that are not impossible, whether we are talking about a fictional fantasy world or not. That does not mean they will happen, nor does it indicate how probable they are beyond the probability being greater than zero. Assuming that the theory is possible, which is not a given regardless of it being in a fictional setting, if we examine some of the assertions that this proposal rests upon, it does not look probable.

1. It assumes, and the whole foundation of the theory rests upon, Mance being present at the Harrenhal Tourney. This should technically be possible as Mance is old enough, but there is no evidence for it. There is actually evidence against it, because we know the Watchman who attended the tourney was a 'wondering crow', and we know that Mance was a ranger, not a recruiter. It is more likely to be Yoren than Mance based on this information.

2. It assumes that, as well as being present at the Tourney, Mance already at that time was striving to create chaos in Westeros. This is based on slim/no evidence. Even if we disregard what Mance says about the specific incident with the cloak causing him to desert, and assume (against the evidence) he always intended to desert, Mance's goal was never to 'create chaos' or 'cause disruption amongst the ruling class' and 'destroy the social order' like some anarchist or communist revolutionary. His goal of getting the Freefolk across the Wall was based on saving them from the Others. Which is a goal based on the appearance of the Others. The Others have not been sighted for thousands of years at the time of the Tourney. So unless the Others were active then, of which there is no evidence, Mance has no reasonable motive to be causing any chaos at this point. In order for this to work, Mance's motivations and history have to be ignored/made up.

3. It assumes Rhaegar would listen to some random watchmen just because he knew some songs and it assumes Mance knew who Master Aemon was.

4. It assumes Lyanna and Mance had a prior relationship.

5. It assumes that Mance would be able to transport cut blue roses from wherever they grow in the North to the Tourney without them wilting/dying.

In short, the whole theory rests on assumptions with slim to no evidence backing it up.

It is also likely the theory is motivated by dislike of the Starks/North in general based on statements like this:

On 1/15/2024 at 8:49 PM, Sydney Mae said:

Brandon and Lyanna were outdoors people who frequently strayed from Winterfell like they were homeless dogs.

On 1/15/2024 at 8:49 PM, Sydney Mae said:

He would need to start with the Targaryens who are the most noble of all the nobles whose almost divine authority held Westeros together.

[Fencer]

18 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

There are a great deal many things that are not impossible, whether we are talking about a fictional fantasy world or not. That does not mean they will happen, nor does it indicate how probable they are beyond the probability being greater than zero.

All too true.  Whenever we get into these complex theories, there is one other question to ask: would this be good writing/storytelling?  To me, at least, the above theory would most certainly not represent good storytelling.  Far too many assumptions and "twists" (i.e., complete deviations from the knowns) required to make it viable.

Good storytelling (Martin, Jordan, King, etc.) lay the groundwork and clues for a casual reader to be suspicious, and an attentive reader to foresee the course of the story.  Bad storytelling creates things out of whole cloth, in conflict with the established truths of the story.

[SaffronLady]

7 hours ago, Fencer said:

Bad storytelling creates things out of whole cloth, in conflict with the established truths of the story.

TBH this kind of fascinates me why these sort of threads (this, Tully madness, etc.) aren't just locked on sight.

Dany being AA at least has some struggle room in the text, but those are few and far between.

[Moiraine Sedai]

Rhaegar was foolish in battle but in romance? Not likely. Lyanna’s lover was Mance Rayder or Brandon Stark. 

[SaffronLady]

32 minutes ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

Lyanna’s lover was Mance Rayder or Brandon Stark.

Not every house produces incestuous siblings, that's really more a Targ thing.