A deep dive into the Purple Wedding (could Sansa have been the poisoner?)

[Frey family reunion]

6 hours ago, Melifeather said:

But the fact of the matter is, Joffrey was poisoned not Tyrion. So when did Sansa make her choice and why? You present your theory as Tyrion being Sansa's intended target yet Joffrey is the one that got the Strangler. 

I think I’ve already address this.  Sansa had every motivation in the world to poison Tyrion because it freed her from the Lannisters and the hell that went along with it.  While Tyrion wasn’t a monster to her, her marriage to Tyrion left her to Joffey’s mercies.  Remember, Joffrey telling Sansa that he was still going to have his way with her after her marriage to Tyrion.  

In her mind her only way free of the Lannisters and thus free of Joffrey was getting rid of Tyrion, and hopefully escaping either to back to the North or to Highgarden where she’d be married off to someone who could protect her.  Joffrey made it clear to her that Tyrion wasn’t going to be able to protect her from him.

But I’m not sure even with that motivation, Sansa could have gone along with the poisoning.  At least not poisoning Tyrion, who had always been somewhat kind to her.  But then just when perhaps she decided that she wasn’t going to use the poison, Joffrey comes up to their table, and lays is chalice right in front of her and Tyrion.  So all of a sudden someone who she truly did hate and despise had opened himself up to being the victim of the poison she possessed.  

That’s why I think the choice of the poison being in the pie or the wine is so interesting.  In reality it could really reveal a lot about Sansa’s character.  If she ultimately decided to poison Tyrion she’d have to put it in his pie.  Take a look at that chapter, Tyrion was out of wine and was about to ask the serving girl for more, when Joffrey brought in the dwarves and ended up dumping his wine on Tyrion.  

Tyrion watches them cut the pie and serve it, and then tells Sansa that they were leaving.  The only thing in front of Tyrion at that time was his pie, Tyrion never did end up asking for some more wine.  So if Joffrey was poisoned from the pie, then Sansa had made the decision to poison Tyrion to free herself from the Lannisters grasp.  And I think the ultimate motivation to do that would have been her realization as to what happened to Ice, and equating Ice’s fate with hers.

But then Joffrey eats the pie.

But if Joffrey was poisoned through the goblet in his wine, I think that Sansa ultimately couldn’t’ bring herself to poison Tyrion, but when Joffrey approached with his goblet she made the sudden decision to poison Joffrey’s wine.  And it goes without saying that Joffrey had provided her with plenty of motivation even if this wasn’t Sansa’s initial plan and it didn’t get her out of her marriage to Tyrion.

Edited February 13 by Frey family reunion

[Melifeather]

5 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

think I’ve already address this.  Sansa had every motivation in the world to poison Tyrion because it freed her from the Lannisters and the hell that went along with it.  While Tyrion wasn’t a monster to her, her marriage to Tyrion left her to Joffey’s mercies.  Remember, Joffrey telling Sansa that he was still going to have his way with her after her marriage to Tyrion.  

Sansa knows that an unconsummated marriage is not binding so she has no reason to kill Tyrion.

Sansa has no idea that the gems are poison. Dontos only said the hairnet was magical and that she needed to wear it. It isn’t until after Joffrey died and she notices a missing gem that she becomes worried that they are not black amethysts. How could she even know to remove one and use it?

[Evolett]

5 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Tyrion watches them cut the pie and serve it, and then tells Sansa that they were leaving.  The only thing in front of Tyrion at that time was his pie, Tyrion never did end up asking for some more wine.  So if Joffrey was poisoned from the pie, then Sansa had made the decision to poison Tyrion to free herself from the Lannisters grasp.  And I think the ultimate motivation to do that would have been her realization as to what happened to Ice, and equating Ice’s fate with hers.

But then Joffrey eats the pie.

But if Joffrey was poisoned through the goblet in his wine, I think that Sansa ultimately couldn’t’ bring herself to poison Tyrion, but when Joffrey approached with his goblet she made the sudden decision to poison Joffrey’s wine.  And it goes without saying that Joffrey had provided her with plenty of motivation even if this wasn’t Sansa’s initial plan and it didn’t get her out of her marriage to Tyrion.

I've enjoyed this dive into Sansa's psyche as an attempt to figure out who was the actual target and who actually did it. After going over the relevant chapters again, I'm not convinced, however. The entire conversation between LF and Sansa during which Sansa tries to guess the poisoners identity would be pointless if Sansa was the culprit, imo. LF then brings up the "someone who straigtend the hair net." Either this was part of the plan to dispense the poison or he had someone other than Dontos on hand observing the situation. 

That said, and from a practical point of view, Lady Olena was not near the table when Joff started choking. She came to Margaery's side when Joff began coughing in earnest. From Cressen's experience, we know the Strangler takes effect immediately after ingestion, so it couldn't have been secreted in a previous cup of wine / food. Sansa definitely had the opportunity to poison either the wine or the pie on the spur of a moment because she was close to both, but there was someone else sitting next to Tyrion all the while and specifically when Joff came along demanding Tyrion serve him wine: Garlan Tyrell. He could have received the crystal from Olena and done the actual deed.  Being seated next to Tyrion might indicate Tyrion as the original target, in which case he would have poisoned the pie. I'm in two minds about the latter. 

 

[Melifeather]

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A Storm of Swords - Sansa VI

Sansa spooned up some juice from her own orange. "But if it wasn't the Kettleblacks and it wasn't Ser Dontos . . . you weren't even in the city, and it couldn't have been Tyrion . . ."

"No more guesses, sweetling?"

She shook her head. "I don't . . ."

Petyr smiled. "I will wager you that at some point during the evening someone told you that your hair net was crooked and straightened it for you."

Sansa raised a hand to her mouth. "You cannot mean . . . she wanted to take me to Highgarden, to marry me to her grandson . . ."

 

This is the smoking gun, isn’t it? 

[Hippocras]

5 hours ago, Evolett said:

I've enjoyed this dive into Sansa's psyche as an attempt to figure out who was the actual target and who actually did it. After going over the relevant chapters again, I'm not convinced, however. The entire conversation between LF and Sansa during which Sansa tries to guess the poisoners identity would be pointless if Sansa was the culprit, imo. LF then brings up the "someone who straigtend the hair net." Either this was part of the plan to dispense the poison or he had someone other than Dontos on hand observing the situation. 

That said, and from a practical point of view, Lady Olena was not near the table when Joff started choking. She came to Margaery's side when Joff began coughing in earnest. From Cressen's experience, we know the Strangler takes effect immediately after ingestion, so it couldn't have been secreted in a previous cup of wine / food. Sansa definitely had the opportunity to poison either the wine or the pie on the spur of a moment because she was close to both, but there was someone else sitting next to Tyrion all the while and specifically when Joff came along demanding Tyrion serve him wine: Garlan Tyrell. He could have received the crystal from Olena and done the actual deed.  Being seated next to Tyrion might indicate Tyrion as the original target, in which case he would have poisoned the pie. I'm in two minds about the latter. 

 

To add: I really fail to see why, if Tyrion was the main target (not the secondary one to go down for it) it would ever have been necessary to do it at the wedding. Tyrion had no Kingsguard protecting him. He had no official food taster. His Mountain Men who had kept him safe were gone. He could have been poisoned ANYWHERE. He could even have been randomly mugged in the streets of KL.

And what would be the point of the dwarf joust then? To make some people feel sorry for him before he died? Just a very expensive and logistically complicated way to get in a final nasty dig before he died? Why?

No, the joust was designed to make it plausible that Tyrion murdered Joffrey. Ergo Joffrey was always the (main) target.

Edited February 14 by Hippocras

[John Suburbs]

21 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Why did it necessarily have to be the chalice? Really, the poison could have been planted in other ways, Olena just needed to find the right moment. But even if it did have to be the wine, Olena and Marge were right there to prod Joffrey in the right direction if needed. 

The key was IMO to kill Joffrey, and framing Tyrion was a bonus. If framing him had not worked, LF could always find another way to get rid of him. However chances were high that it would work because suspicion would automatically be on those at the High Table, and Tyrion was the one with the most obvious history of animosity with Joffrey.

What other ways? At this point in the feast, nobody is eating anything, so the only other way is the chalice, or his pie. All of Joffrey's food is being served at his place at the center of the high table, right next to Cersei and Tywin.

If Margaery is supposed to be prodding Joffrey in the right direction, why is she calling him back to share a toast with the wine that has just been poisoned?

So no, after setting up all of this -- Dontos, the poison, the hairnet, the joust . .  . -- it is inconceivable that when it comes to the most crucial point, actually getting the poison into Joffrey and no one else, the plan was for Olenna to just wing it, and hope against hope that somehow it will all fall on Tyrion even if he was nowhere near Joffrey the whole time. 

 

[Frey family reunion]

11 hours ago, Melifeather said:

Sansa knows that an unconsummated marriage is not binding so she has no reason to kill Tyrion.

Sansa has no idea that the gems are poison. Dontos only said the hairnet was magical and that she needed to wear it. It isn’t until after Joffrey died and she notices a missing gem that she becomes worried that they are not black amethysts. How could she even know to remove one and use it?

Except that who is going to set aside her marriage to Tyrion for her?  Certainly not the King, whether it be Joffrey or Tommen.  The Lannisters control the kingdom and they don't want to give up Sansa.  So they aren't going to allow the marriage to be annulled, certainly not so Sansa could marry Willas.  And of course at some point the marriage may get consummated.  The Lannisters sure were pushing hard for it.  If push came to shove, Sansa couldn't refuse Tyrion.  

So her only way out is to go through with a plan whereby it looks like Tyrion chokes to death on a morsel of food, and Sansa scoots out of King's Landing, hopefully to either the North or Highgarden where she'll be free to remarry.

Yes when Dontos first gives her the hairnet, he only says that the hairnet is magical, and it will get her home and it will get her justice.

My theory is that Sansa was fully informed as to what she needed to do only after she was married to Tyrion.  At that point she'd be desperate enough to do what she needed to free herself of the marriage.  And in this case, she would be told that Olenna would replace one of her stones and she needed to drop that replaced stone into Tyrion's wine when the food was served.  And this was going to free her from her marriage.   Now this conversation would have occurred "off screen" so the reader wasn't privy to it.

But this conversation would have occurred between the Tyrion chapter where she was married to Tyrion and before the Sansa chapter where she was preparing for the day of the wedding.  That's why on the day of the wedding we get these thoughts from Sansa:

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She threw back her coverlets.  I must be brave.  Her torments would soon be ended one way or the other.

In other words, she knew that on that day she would either rid herself of her marriage to Tyrion and escape King's Landing, or be caught in the attempt to do so and be executed.  Either way her suffering would be over.

And the only way that she knew she'd be rid of her marriage to Tyrion is that her dropping the replaced stone into his wine or food was actually poison.  Undoubtably she knew this even if it wasn't completely spelled out for her.  And she knew she wouldn't be executed just by trying to escape King's Landing.  But she would be executed if she was caught trying to poison Tyrion.

But then after she committed the act, which was either attempting to poison Tyrion but fate intervened and her poisoned pie ended up in Joffrey's mouth.  Or she successfully poisoned Joffrey by dropping the stone in his goblet.  The realization of what she did was too much for her and she represses what she's done.

If Sansa was truly ignorant of the plan to poison Joffrey, there was no reason for Sansa to assume that Joffrey had been poisoned.  That's the point of using the Strangler, it's supposed to make it look like the recipient choked on his own food.  That should have been Sansa's only thought at the time, that Joffrey was choking on the pie he wolfed down. 

But instead her gaze immediately goes to the empty socket on her hair net.  There shoudln't have been any reason for her eye to go there and immediately equate it with Joffrey's death, unless deep down in her sub conscious she knew the significance of the empty socket, that it contained poison given to her by Olenna and she was responsible for getting it in the pie or the wine that Joffrey consumed.  

[Frey family reunion]

11 hours ago, Evolett said:

The entire conversation between LF and Sansa during which Sansa tries to guess the poisoners identity would be pointless if Sansa was the culprit, imo. LF then brings up the "someone who straigtend the hair net." Either this was part of the plan to dispense the poison or he had someone other than Dontos on hand observing the situation. 

Yes, go back and read my theory.  This was my initial sticking point with this theory because I always assumed that the amethysts in the hairnet were all poison.  And if Sansa was the poisoner how would Pety know that Olenna fooled with the hairnet.

But then it occurred to me, that the hair net that Sansa was given could actually be what it was purported to be, a hair net with black amethysts from Asshai.  But the magic in the hairnet lay in the fact that they looked just like the Strangler crystal.  

Thus, perhaps, Olenna did not receive the poison from Sansa at the wedding from her hairnet, but perhaps the reverse, Olenna provided the poison to Sansa by replacing one of the stones in her hairnet with the Strangler poison.  And Sansa knew that she was supposed to drop this replaced stone into Tyrion's wine when the food was being eaten.  To make it look like he choked on his food, and thus freeing her from her marriage.

So the reason that Pety knew that Olenna fiddled with Sansa's hairnet, is that was always part of their plan, first concocted in Highgarden.  That they would give Sansa the hairnet, Olenna would bring the poison, and transfer it to the hairnet on the day of the wedding.  And they concocted this plan because they knew that with Joffrey's new marriage pact with Margaery, Sansa would be free to marry and Sansa would be too tempting a prize for Olenna to ignore. 

Pety also would have convinced Olenna, that the Lannisters would undoubtably just marry Sansa to Tyrion before Olenna could have a chance to get Sansa to Highgarden to marry Willas.  Or perhaps Olenna would have come up with this on her own.  Either way, my guess is that this impediment wasn't a big deal for Olenna.  Because she had been rumored to use poison before.  So that's how she solves her problems.  And Petyr is undoubtably aware of this.  Petyr allows Olenna to concoct the plan, all the while plotting to double cross her by using the poisoning as a way to smuggle Sansa  on to his ship.

But they wouldnt' give the poison to Sansa until she agreed to go along with the plan.  And both Pety and Olenna believed that being married to the disfigured, despised, dwarf, who's family destroyed Sansa's family would be sufficient motivation for her to go along with it.  

So when Olenna sees Sansa with the hairnet on the day of the wedding, that had to be confirmation to her that Sansa was going to go along with the plan.  And Olenna further tries to motivate Sansa, as she replaces the stone in her hairnet with the poison, by reminding her of her brother's murder, her being taken to Highgarden, and all of the food that Tyrion was going to eat.

 

 

Edited February 14 by Frey family reunion

[Frey family reunion]

9 hours ago, Hippocras said:

No, the joust was designed to make it plausible that Tyrion murdered Joffrey. Ergo Joffrey was always the (main) target.

Except that doesn't make any sense.  Don't forget the purpose of using the Strangler.  It's purpose is to be dissolved in wine and make it look like the recipient choked on his food.  Not that he was poisoned.  So why try to frame Tyrion for a poisoning and then use a poison that makes it look like the victim wasn't poisoned?

The other problem was that it wasn't the jousting dwarves that implicated Tyrion, it was Cersei.  And as we find out Cersei had been convinced by a childhood prophecy that Tyrion was going to murder her children.  Which is why Cersei is the only one that comes to the conclusion that Tyrion poisoned Joffrey.  There is no way that Petyr would have been aware of any of this.

Had Cersei not pointed the finger at Tyrion, it's very possible that they would have thought that Joffrey choked on his food.

In other words, Littlefinger was full of crap when he told Sansa that.  But Littlefinger need to make it look like he's in complete control of the situation.  And Littlefinger is very good at thinking on his feet, as we saw with how he used the valyrian dagger to his advantage.

So Littlefinger claims credit for Joffrey's death (even though he has nothing to gain) and with implicating Tyrion, which he does have something to gain, but there was no way he could have known that Tyrion would have been blamed until after the fact.

I think the true purpose of the jousting dwarves was something even more sinister.  He was trying to further humiliate Sansa about being married to a dwarf, to make it easier for her to poison Tyrion at the wedding.

Edited February 14 by Frey family reunion

[Hippocras]

46 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

What other ways? At this point in the feast, nobody is eating anything, so the only other way is the chalice, or his pie. All of Joffrey's food is being served at his place at the center of the high table, right next to Cersei and Tywin.

There is not the slightest reason why the poisoning had to happen at precisely that moment EXCEPT for the fact that that was the moment when a clear opportunity presented itself. The festivities could have gone on much longer first, with more food courses, more drink, more toasts, etc., and Olena would simply have waited for a different moment. Seriously all that was needed was a conduit from poison to mouth soon after Tyrion was close to Joffrey. There was nothing magical about that particular hour and minute.

46 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

If Margaery is supposed to be prodding Joffrey in the right direction, why is she calling him back to share a toast with the wine that has just been poisoned?

How else to get him to drink some wine? That sounds like prodding to me.
 

46 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

So no, after setting up all of this -- Dontos, the poison, the hairnet, the joust . .  . -- it is inconceivable that when it comes to the most crucial point, actually getting the poison into Joffrey and no one else, the plan was for Olenna to just wing it, and hope against hope that somehow it will all fall on Tyrion even if he was nowhere near Joffrey the whole time. 

Even if Tyrion had never been particularly close, they had several witnesses planted and ready to CLAIM he had been close at a plausible moment when most people were distracted by something. But at any time, Olena could have also contrived to bring Tyrion closer if needed. She just didn't happen to need to because Joffrey did it on his own. And again, the distraction that presented the opportunity could have been anything, at any time, during a long event it did not NEED to be the pigeon pie.

A distraction so that noone would be able to dispute the lies, some easily bought liars, and a very public reason everyone could see Tyrion was furious with Joffrey. It is a framework that gave Olena much to work with even though a certain amount of improvisation was inevitable no matter who was the target.

Improvisation to fit circumstances is part of EVERY Littlefinger plan, but the number of workable scenarios at that wedding that fit the parameters were infinite so it really did not need to be planned to every minute detail.

  

10 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Had Cersei not pointed the finger at Tyrion, it's very possible that they would have thought that Joffrey choked on his food.

I disagree. I think that if Cersei had not made the accusation, Olena would have made sure someone else did. 

Edited February 14 by Hippocras

[John Suburbs]

18 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

It’s the discussion at the wedding I’m referring to.  Olenna should know by that time that Tyrion was going to be poisoned and she tells Sansa when they were leaving.  I don’t have any reason to believe that Olenna was lying.  The Willas plan isn’t a bust, not once Tyrion is dead.  Once Tyrion dies, Sansa is free to marry Willas.  That’s why they need to get Sansa out quickly, they don’t want to wait for the Lannisters to find someone else to marry her.

Keeping Sansa in King’s Landing for an extended period of time would have ensured that Sansa would have been remarried to a Lannister.  And yes, the whole point/benefit of poisoning Tyrion, for Olenna, would have been to make Sansa a Tyrell.  Which then gives the Tyrells a claim to Winterfell.  But to do so they need to get her to Highgarden quickly after Tyrion’s death.

 

 

No, she doesn't say We are leaving, she says I am leaving.

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"I am pleased to say that I will be leaving for Highgarden day after next. I have had quite enough of this smelly city, thank you. Perhaps you would like to accompany me for a little visit, whilst the men are off having their war."

She knows perfectly well that the men are not going to be off to war the day after tomorrow, just as she knows that Tyrion is not going to lead a host. So Olenna is not lying. She does want Sansa to come visit Highgarden, at some point, when the time is right and the coast is clear.

Sansa is not going to be in King's Landing for an extended period of time. She is leaving, that night. She would not be doing this, and risking not only her life but the lives of her entire family, if this was not the case.

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Of course Olenna was in on the plan in the beginning.  Do you think Dontos pulled her aside in King’s Landing and told her “hey just for your info, Sansa is going to have a whole lot of poison in her hairnet the day of the wedding, feel free to help yourself”.  That’s absurd.  The only way that Olenna knows about the hair net (and Petyr knows that Olenna knows about the hairnet) is if she and Petyr came up with this idea in Highgarden.  Once it was settled that the Joffrey is going to break off his engagement with Sansa, Olenna is going to be very interested in laying a claim to Sansa.  They both agree that the Lannisters will probably marry her off to Tyrion before they can bring her to Highgarden so they make the contingency plan concerning the hair net.  Olenna is most probably the one who supplied it.  

Of course that's absurd. Dontos wouldn't come within a hundred yards of Lady Olenna. Petyr told her where the poison would be and how to get it, after it became clear that Olenna would do the job -- for her own reasons, not his. If Olenna was in on this all the way back in Highgarden, then there is no reason for the hairnet at all -- just find some convenient dead drop somewhere. And why would she even trust Petyr after he lied so badly about Joffrey?

Sorry, but the only way any of this works out is if Olenna did not agree to become the poisoner until after Sansa had married Tyrion.

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But there is no reason for Olenna to go through with the poisoning if Sansa is not married after Joffrey’s wedding.  Then they can take her to Highgarden without the need to poison anyone.  Petyr ratted out their plan to the Lannisters because his plan to snatch Sansa for himself relied on the poisoning at the wedding.  Plus he really hated Tyrion.  So he felt the need to hurry up and get Sansa married before Joffrey’s wedding.  This is Petyr’s way of ensuring the marriage to Tyrion takes place in time.  

Dontos does try to nip the idea in the bud, but Sansa doesn’t care.  Once she is given the invite to Highgarden she feels no need to run off with Dontos on the day of the wedding.  It’s only when she’s married to Tyrion that she has no choice but to go ahead with their plan.  Of course their plan also concerns getting ride of her husband.  Which is the only reason Sansa would go along with it.  That’s the only way she becomes truly free of the Lannisters.

Sorry, you've got it all backward. If there is no reason for Olenna to go through the with poisoning, then why is she in on this plot all the back at Highgarden? What was her reason back then? And do you honestly think that Petyr is fool enough to invite Lady O into this plot unless he is absolutely sure she is going to go through with it? There is no way he can know this way back then, but he is certain of it after Sansa's wedding -- again, because her reasons for killing Tyrion are stronger than his own.

I don't think it's accurate to say he hated Tyrion. If anything, he feared him, especially now that he is Master of Coin.

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I’d have to go back and look at the sequence, you may be right but it doesn’t matter.  Olenna’s only concern is getting Sansa to Highgarden free to marry Willas.  If she has to help poison a dwarf husband of Sansa so be it.  But if she doesn’t that’s even better.  Petyr’s secret plan to snatch Sansa for himself completely relies on the poisoning at the wedding.   Hence, Littlefinger ensuring that Sansa gets married to Tyrion.

The reason for the hair net is that is how Olenna is going to pass to Sansa the poison on the day of the wedding, through her hair net.   Olenna is going to pass the poison to Sansa because Sansa is realistically the only one who’s going to be in the position to surreptitiously poison Tyrion at the wedding.  But until then there is absolutely no reason to give Sansa the poison.  They have to make sure that she’s willing.  It’s her marriage to Tyrion that gives her the desperation to go along with the plan.  (It’s also why on the day of the wedding Sansa tries to summon up the courage of her warrior brother).  

It does matter because it blows your whole rationale for Petyr's actions out of the water. He did not rat out the plan because Sansa's marriage might be delayed. There was no marriage at that point. He ratted out the plan to force Lady Olenna's hand -- now she has no choice but to be the poisoner other than to sit back and let Tywin take the north.

Her only motivation is not to wed Sansa to Willas. Her motivation is to preserve her house, her realm and her people from the mad dog tyrant who grinds rival houses into the dirt even after he professes his loyalty to them. Look at his record: Reynes, Tarbecks, Targaryens, Starks, Tullys, Darrys,  . . .  This is what she fears: the Reach burned to ashes, tens of thousands of smallfolk slaughtered and left rotting in the mud, Highgarden razed to the ground, her entire family, even the little children, murdered in cold blood, her line extinguished, forever. Only killing Tyrion can turn the tide on Tywin's relentless march to complete domination over the Reach. Marrying her to Willas is out of reach at this point, and both she and Petyr know this.

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There is no way that Olenna is just going to blindly take a gem from Sansa’s hair net on the word of Littlefinger or Dontos that it’s poison.  The only way that she agrees with this plan is that she helps come up with this plan.  Olenna is not a pawn to do Petyr’s bidding.  

Olenna gives the hairnet to Petyr to have Petyr give it to Sansa.  Petyr has Dontos give the hair net to Sansa, with the instruction to wear it on the day of the wedding.  For Olenna, the hairnet will only be necessary if Sansa is married.  Olenna supplies the poison, Petyr supplies the poisoner.  Both keep their hands clean and get someone else to do the dirty work for them.  In this case, it’s a young girl who both believe will be so desperate to get out of a marriage to Tyrion that she’ll be willing to do their dirty work for them.  

Of course she would. Petyr has his own motivations for killing Tyrion, namely, his head remaining on his shoulders. And the simple fact is that she is his pawn. She has no choice. Neither of them do. That's the only way a plot like this can succeed, when both parties suffer supreme consequences in failure or betrayal.

There is absolutely no reason to think Olenna provided the poison. A rich lady like her, was this her one and only crystal? Cressen had six. So this whole theory is untenable. If Olenna is the poisoner and she has the poison all along, there is no reason to give it to anyone and risk being double-crossed.

[John Suburbs]

1 minute ago, Hippocras said:

There is not the slightest reason why the poisoning had to happen at precisely that moment EXCEPT for the fact that that was the moment when a clear opportunity presented itself. The festivities could have gone on much longer first, with more food courses, more drink, more toasts, etc., and Olena would simply have waited for a different moment. Seriously all that was needed was a conduit from poison to mouth soon after Tyrion was close to Joffrey. There was nothing magical about that particular hour and minute.

How else to get him to drink some wine? That sounds like prodding to me.

You don't plot a regicide and leave the most crucial moment to chance. That's absurd. This "precise moment" came about completely by chance. If none of the things that led up to this moment happened, how much longer was she going to wait? It's getting late. Soon comes the bedding, and then what does she do?

And at this point, Joffrey is not going to be eating anything more, save for his own pie. So now she has to poison him using the very chalice that the Tyrells provided in the first place, and is to be shared with Margaery at important events like the pie-cutting -- which in fact did happen. Do you honestly think Lady Olenna is that great a fool as to take that chance? If so, I have a lovely manse in old Valyria I would dearly love to sell you.

Lol, and after prodding him to drink wine, and assuming that he will drink first, what is she supposed to do for the next 30 seconds or so until he starts choking? Hum a little tune, do a little dance, fake an epileptic seizure? No matter what she does, she either dies or becomes the prime suspect in his murder, not Tyrion.

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Even if Tyrion had never been particularly close, they had several witnesses planted and ready to CLAIM he had been close at a plausible moment when most people were distracted by something. But at any time, Olena could have also contrived to bring Tyrion closer if needed. She just didn't happen to need to because Joffrey did it on his own. And again, the distraction that presented the opportunity could have been anything, at any time, during a long event it did not NEED to be the pigeon pie.

A distraction so that noone would be able to dispute the lies, some easily bought liars, and a very public reason everyone could see Tyrion was furious with Joffrey. It is a framework that gave Olena much to work with even though a certain amount of improvisation was inevitable no matter who was the target.

How could anyone claim he was anywhere near the chalice if it sat at Joffrey's place at the table the whole time? Did he sneak up there unnoticed by everyone at the table but spotted by someone across the room? In what way could Olenna prod Tyrion to go anywhere near it? Sorry, but this is utter nonsense.

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Improvisation to fit circumstances is part of EVERY Littlefinger plan, but the number of workable scenarios at that wedding that fit the parameters were infinite so it really did not need to be planned to every minute detail.

First, this improvisation is Lady Olenna's, not Littlefinger's. She is the one taking all these risks while he is safe and sound out on his boat waiting to collect his prize, or split to Braavos should anything go wrong with her "improvisations."

Second, Petyr improvises when major events disrupt broad, strategic goals, not highly specific actions that lead to his death if they go wrong. And note that nothing else in this plan is improvised: the note, the initial contact with Dontos, the hairnet, the swiping of the crystal . . .  It was all carefully choreographed. Except for the actual poisoning? Nope, sorry.

The pie, however, leaves virtually anything to chance. She knows exactly where it will be at the exact the right moment, and she even has a high probability of knowing where he will take his one and only bite: the pointy end, which is also the easiest to poison. That's the key difference between the two: the wine needed an entire sequence of unpredictable events in order to succeed, while the pie only needed one unpredictable (wildly unpredictable), event to fail. And even then, it was not a total failure.

[Hippocras]

2 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

You don't plot a regicide and leave the most crucial moment to chance. That's absurd. This "precise moment" came about completely by chance. If none of the things that led up to this moment happened, how much longer was she going to wait? It's getting late. Soon comes the bedding, and then what does she do?

And at this point, Joffrey is not going to be eating anything more, save for his own pie. So now she has to poison him using the very chalice that the Tyrells provided in the first place, and is to be shared with Margaery at important events like the pie-cutting -- which in fact did happen. Do you honestly think Lady Olenna is that great a fool as to take that chance? If so, I have a lovely manse in old Valyria I would dearly love to sell you.

Lol, and after prodding him to drink wine, and assuming that he will drink first, what is she supposed to do for the next 30 seconds or so until he starts choking? Hum a little tune, do a little dance, fake an epileptic seizure? No matter what she does, she either dies or becomes the prime suspect in his murder, not Tyrion.

How could anyone claim he was anywhere near the chalice if it sat at Joffrey's place at the table the whole time? Did he sneak up there unnoticed by everyone at the table but spotted by someone across the room? In what way could Olenna prod Tyrion to go anywhere near it? Sorry, but this is utter nonsense.

First, this improvisation is Lady Olenna's, not Littlefinger's. She is the one taking all these risks while he is safe and sound out on his boat waiting to collect his prize, or split to Braavos should anything go wrong with her "improvisations."

Second, Petyr improvises when major events disrupt broad, strategic goals, not highly specific actions that lead to his death if they go wrong. And note that nothing else in this plan is improvised: the note, the initial contact with Dontos, the hairnet, the swiping of the crystal . . .  It was all carefully choreographed. Except for the actual poisoning? Nope, sorry.

The pie, however, leaves virtually anything to chance. She knows exactly where it will be at the exact the right moment, and she even has a high probability of knowing where he will take his one and only bite: the pointy end, which is also the easiest to poison. That's the key difference between the two: the wine needed an entire sequence of unpredictable events in order to succeed, while the pie only needed one unpredictable (wildly unpredictable), event to fail. And even then, it was not a total failure.

The precise details of a murder are ALWAYS improvised. No murderer can EVER predict exactly what their victims and/or the various witnesses will be doing at every precise moment. The plan had plenty of space to create multiple opportunities.

This is not about leaving it to chance: OTHER CHANCES WOULD HAVE EXISTED, had that particular chance not come to pass.

[Melifeather]

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

If Margaery is supposed to be prodding Joffrey in the right direction, why is she calling him back to share a toast with the wine that has just been poisoned?

This has been my thoughts the last few days. Lady Olenna plucked out a stone, brought it to Margaery, and she dropped it in the chalice.

[Hippocras]

1 minute ago, Melifeather said:

This has been my thoughts the last few days. Lady Olenna plucked out a stone, brought it to Margaery, and she dropped it in the chalice.

I am not actually convinced Marge was a full collaborator. I think Olena told her to get Joffrey to drink lots of wine and make lots of toasts, and maybe even to get him to goad Tyrion, but the motive given for those actions would have been false. Something to do with keeping Joffrey's sadism in check for the wedding night maybe.
 

I do think Marge was genuinely surprised at the death.

I also wonder if Marge was somehow given an antidote. After all, one probably exists if Mel could drink so much poisoned wine and not be affected. Melisandre's power is visions, not super-human ability to not die when poisoned.

[Melifeather]

1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

If Sansa was truly ignorant of the plan to poison Joffrey, there was no reason for Sansa to assume that Joffrey had been poisoned.  That's the point of using the Strangler, it's supposed to make it look like the recipient choked on his own food.  That should have been Sansa's only thought at the time, that Joffrey was choking on the pie he wolfed down. 

But instead her gaze immediately goes to the empty socket on her hair net.  There shoudln't have been any reason for her eye to go there and immediately equate it with Joffrey's death, unless deep down in her sub conscious she knew the significance of the empty socket, that it contained poison given to her by Olenna and she was responsible for getting it in the pie or the wine that Joffrey consumed.  

Sansa didn't immediately gaze at the hairnet. It wasn't until she was out in the godswood and changing her clothes. She pulled out her clothing from where she had hidden it, removed her dress, and then pulled off the hairnet. The moonlight reflected off the stones which made the empty socket stand out.

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A Storm of Swords - Sansa V 

She found her clothes where she had hidden them, the night before last. With no maids to help her, it took her longer than it should have to undo the laces of her gown. Her hands were strangely clumsy, though she was not as frightened as she ought to have been. "The gods are cruel to take him so young and handsome, at his own wedding feast," Lady Tanda had said to her.

The gods are just, thought Sansa. Robb had died at a wedding feast as well. It was Robb she wept for. Him and Margaery. Poor Margaery, twice wed and twice widowed. Sansa slid her arm from a sleeve, pushed down the gown, and wriggled out of it. She balled it up and shoved it into the bole of an oak, shook out the clothing she had hidden there. Dress warmly, Ser Dontos had told her, and dress dark. She had no blacks, so she chose a dress of thick brown wool. The bodice was decorated with freshwater pearls, though. The cloak will cover them. The cloak was a deep green, with a large hood. She slipped the dress over her head, and donned the cloak, though she left the hood down for the moment. There were shoes as well, simple and sturdy, with flat heels and square toes. The gods heard my prayer, she thought. She felt so numb and dreamy. My skin has turned to porcelain, to ivory, to steel. Her hands moved stiffly, awkwardly, as if they had never let down her hair before. For a moment she wished Shae was there, to help her with the net.

When she pulled it free, her long auburn hair cascaded down her back and across her shoulders. The web of spun silver hung from her fingers, the fine metal glimmering softly, the stones black in the moonlight. Black amethysts from Asshai. One of them was missing. Sansa lifted the net for a closer look. There was a dark smudge in the silver socket where the stone had fallen out.

A sudden terror filled her. Her heart hammered against her ribs, and for an instant she held her breath. Why am I so scared, it's only an amethyst, a black amethyst from Asshai, no more than that. It must have been loose in the setting, that's all. It was loose and it fell out, and now it's lying somewhere in the throne room, or in the yard, unless . . .

 

 

[Aebram]

I just had another thought about this.  I'm honestly not sure if I believe it myself, but it seemed worth posting. It's a continuation of my earlier comment about repressed memories, and whether characters can be unreliable in their own POV, which said in part:

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... I have noticed a couple of other places in the story where a character's thoughts are, if not wrong, at least curiously vague or absent. Interestingly, they are both related to Joffrey's death, and they both involve Tyrion. One is just after Joffrey dies, when Tyrion pours out the remaining wine from Joffrey's cup (Storm 60). We have no idea why he did this.

The other odd gap is when Jaime is helping him escape from the dungeon (Storm 77), and in a moment of anger, Tyrion says that he killed joffrey. A few moments later, he feels some regret about that, and "part of him wanted to call out, to tell him that it wasn’t true, to beg for his forgiveness."  But it's not clear whether  it actually was a lie.

 

 If one character can repress memories, so can another ... What if it was Tyrion, not Sansa, who poisoned Joffrey?

In hindsight, it seems almost obvious. I'm surprised that there aren't more readers supporting this theory. As for Sansa, we have no back story about how or when Tyrion decided to kill his nephew, and no account of him actually doing it, and no memories afterwards of having done it. But unlike for Sansa, we have these two very peculiar moments: one when he pours out the remaining wine, and another when he actually says that he did it.

Also, we know that Tyrion had some poisons. He took them from Pycelle's chambers, in Clash chapters 17 and 25. The first time, he was looking for a potion to keep Cersei confined to her chambers for a time; but while he was there, "he noted sweetsleep and nightshade, milk of the poppy, the tears of Lys, powdered greycap, wolfsbane and demon's dance, basilisk venom, blindeye, widow's blood ..." The second time, "Tyrion made a leisurely search of the quarters and collected a few more small jars from his shelves."

And let's not forget that, in the moments leading up to Joffrey's death, Tyrion was serving as his cupbearer. "Motive, method, and opportunity?"

Some readers have suggested that the poison couldn't have been in the wine, because the Strangler acts instantly, as it did for Cressen. But we have only that one example to go by; and Cressen was an old man in poor health, whereas Joffrey was young and healthy, and already somewhat drunk. Only a few moments passed between Joffrey drinking from the goblet that Tyrion handed him, and his first cough. So it seems plausible to me that the poison was indeed in the wine, and it took a few seconds for it to take effect.

Edited February 15 by Aebram

[Castellan]

57 minutes ago, Aebram said:

we have these two very peculiar moments: one when he pours out the remaining wine, and another when he actually says that he did it.

 

Oh well, I don't think they are that peculiar.

Pouring out the wine - On first read, I read it as Tyrion is as stunned as everybody else, and struggling to think given his drunkenness. I thought he took the chalice as he felt in need of wine. It seemed a natural, slightly unthinking action to me to pour out the wine, he may have thought 'it could be poison' at that moment, and turned his idea of drinking it into pouring it out because its dangerous.

However, I now I think it is staring at the colour of the dregs left in there that has triggered his brain into making the connection with Sansa's hairnet. And if Sansa is implicated, so might he be. Or he may feel sympathy with her.  I definitely think he has made some connection when he looks at the wine - it reminds me of the moment at the wedding breakfast where he stares at Joffrey after Joffrey boasts about being familiar with Valyrian steel, making the connection that it was Joffrey who sent the catspaw after Bran.

His savage response to Jaime is triggered by Jaime's confession to him re Tysha. Tyrion is absolutely horrified. Of all the ghastly treatment he has received by Tywin and Joffrey, nothing approaches this revelation. He has joined in gang raping his wife. And this was caused by a lie told by the one family member he trusts. All Jaime can do is stammer that he didn't know it would happen. Tyrion wants to hurt Jaime as much as possible and can only do it with words at this point. He is denying the bond they have had and implying it was never there, by saying he killed Joffrey.

Of course, the fact that he did make that connection about the catspaw also gives him a motive for killing Joffrey. Because he let Joffrey know he knows. And Joffrey could be expected to get back at Tyrion, once his initial fear wears off (Joffrey is quite taken aback in the moment, and just wants to end the conversation and leave). Likewise, it could have triggered Joffrey into trying to poison Tyrion and somehow poisoning himself!  And so the theorizing goes on.....

[Hippocras]

18 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Except that doesn't make any sense.  Don't forget the purpose of using the Strangler.  It's purpose is to be dissolved in wine and make it look like the recipient choked on his food.  Not that he was poisoned.  So why try to frame Tyrion for a poisoning and then use a poison that makes it look like the victim wasn't poisoned?

I want to single out this point because I did not deal with it thoroughly.

I think it comes down to flexibility. The plan required Olena to find the right moment. The goal was to frame Tyrion, but as others have pointed out, there was always the possibility that Tyrion would never be close enough to Joffrey to stick with that plan. So even if no moment could be found to frame Tyrion, Joffrey needed to die. Tyrion could always be disposed of at a later date if needed.

The use of the Strangler gave Olena two options:

1. Find a moment to drop in the crystal when Tyrion was close, and then make sure someone accused him (she had liars available to make the accusation if Cersei had not)

2. OR, if Tyrion was NEVER close and the opportunity did not exist to frame him, then no worries. Joffrey choked on his pie. No OTHER culprit needed to be found. It prevented Margaery or Olena or anyone else from having to take the fall.

Edited February 15 by Hippocras

[Melifeather]

4 hours ago, Hippocras said:

I want to single out this point because I did not deal with it thoroughly.

I think it comes down to flexibility. The plan required Olena to find the right moment. The goal was to frame Tyrion, but as others have pointed out, there was always the possibility that Tyrion would never be close enough to Joffrey to stick with that plan. So even if no moment could be found to frame Tyrion, Joffrey needed to die. Tyrion could always be disposed of at a later date if needed.

The use of the Strangler gave Olena two options:

1. Find a moment to drop in the crystal when Tyrion was close, and then make sure someone accused him (she had liars available to make the accusation if Cersei had not)

2. OR, if Tyrion was NEVER close and the opportunity did not exist to frame him, then no worries. Joffrey choked on his pie. No OTHER culprit needed to be found. It prevented Margaery or Olena or anyone else from having to take the fall.

 

Three (technically four) people had the opportunity to drop the Strangler into Joffrey's chalice. Here is number one - Lady Olenna and the flagon from a serving girl:

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A Storm of Swords - Tyrion VIII

"Ser Addam has a toast he wants to make as well," said Margaery. "Your Grace, please."

"I have no wine," Joffrey declared. "How can I drink a toast if I have no wine? Uncle Imp, you can serve me. Since you won't joust you'll be my cupbearer."

"I would be most honored."

"It's not meant to be an honor!" Joffrey screamed. "Bend down and pick up my chalice." Tyrion did as he was bid, but as he reached for the handle Joff kicked the chalice through his legs. "Pick it up! Are you as clumsy as you are ugly?" He had to crawl under the table to find the thing. "Good, now fill it with wine." He claimed a flagon from a serving girl and filled the goblet three-quarters full. "No, on your knees, dwarf." Kneeling, Tyrion raised up the heavy cup, wondering if he was about to get a second bath. But Joffrey took the wedding chalice one-handed, drank deep, and set it on the table. "You can get up now, Uncle."

His legs cramped as he tried to rise, and almost spilled him again. Tyrion had to grab hold of a chair to steady himself. Ser Garlan lent him a hand. Joffrey laughed, and Cersei as well. Then others. He could not see who, but he heard them.

 

 

If Lady Olenna had removed the Strangler from Sansa's hairnet, no one would have noticed if she came in contact with the serving girl with the flagon of wine. The serving girl may have been appointed as Joffrey's cupbearer to follow his chalice around to refill it when needed. 

Here are two and three - Tyrion and Sansa:

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Sansa stirred in her seat. "What sword is that?"

Tyrion's eyes still stung from the wine. He blinked and looked again. Ser Ilyn's greatsword was as long and wide as Ice, but it was too silvery-bright; Valyrian steel had a darkness to it, a smokiness in its soul. Sansa clutched his arm. "What has Ser Ilyn done with my father's sword?"

I should have sent Ice back to Robb Stark, Tyrion thought. He glanced at his father, but Lord Tywin was watching the king.

"I need to change into fresh garb, Your Grace. May I have your leave?"

"No. I like the look of you this way. Serve me my wine."

The king's chalice was on the table where he'd left it. Tyrion had to climb back onto his chair to reach it. Joff yanked it from his hands and drank long and deep, his throat working as the wine ran purple down his chin. "My lord," Margaery said, "we should return to our places. Lord Buckler wants to toast us."

"My uncle hasn't eaten his pigeon pie." Holding the chalice one-handed, Joff jammed his other into Tyrion's pie. "It's ill luck not to eat the pie," he scolded as he filled his mouth with hot spiced pigeon. "See, it's good." Spitting out flakes of crust, he coughed and helped himself to another fistful. "Dry, though. Needs washing down." Joff took a swallow of wine and coughed again, more violently. "I want to see, kof, see you ride that, kof kof, pig, Uncle. I want . . ." His words broke up in a fit of coughing.

Margaery looked at him with concern. "Your Grace?"

 

 

Joffrey drank a good portion of the wine before he tried to eat pigeon pie. He barely got a couple sentences out before the effects kicked in.

 

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"It's, kof, the pie, noth—kof, pie." Joff took another drink, or tried to, but all the wine came spewing back out when another spate of coughing doubled him over. His face was turning red. "I, kof, I can't, kof kof kof kof . . ." The chalice slipped from his hand and dark red wine went running across the dais.

"He's choking," Queen Margaery gasped.

Ser Meryn pried the king's mouth open to jam a spoon down his throat. As he did, the boy's eyes met Tyrion's. He has Jaime's eyes. Only he had never seen Jaime look so scared. The boy's only thirteen. Joffrey was making a dry clacking noise, trying to speak. His eyes bulged white with terror, and he lifted a hand . . . reaching for his uncle, or pointing . . . Is he begging my forgiveness, or does he think I can save him? "Noooo," Cersei wailed, "Father help him, someone help him, my son, my son . . ."

Tyrion found himself thinking of Robb Stark. My own wedding is looking much better in hindsight. He looked to see how Sansa was taking this, but there was so much confusion in the hall that he could not find her. But his eyes fell on the wedding chalice, forgotten on the floor. He went and scooped it up. There was still a half-inch of deep purple wine in the bottom of it. Tyrion considered it a moment, then poured it on the floor.

 

 

Tyrion is Tyrion. He's educated, intelligent, and I think in this moment he is wondering if the wine had something in it. He looks down into the bottom of Joffrey's chalice and takes note that the wine is a deep purple. I think we're to conclude its deep purple is due to the dissolved Strangler and that is why Tyrion poured it out on the floor. 

Edited February 15 by Melifeather