US Politics: Losing Appeals

[A Horse Named Stranger]

55 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

You'd be wrong, I think; SCOTUS could jump in quickly if necessary, especially if the government was being very aggressive in seizing properties. 

My understanding is, that the Supremes have zero standing and no dog in this fight. They can't jump in. Could they invent something, yeah. But that's a very remote possibility.

E. Jean Carroll will get her money. Trump posted a bond underwritten by an insurance company. So the insurance company is on the hook for Carroll, and they will have to go asset seizing after one round of a losing appeal (I am so proud of that title).

The 450m is something NYS/James wants. When it comes to chasing assets, I'd put my money on NY. This is not a private claimant, who might run out of breath/energy/money tracking the money. On top of that, there's still the issue of Barbara Jones being appointed monitor over his business (this time with actual teeth) by Engoron. His companies are NY registered - despite his last ditch efforts to move it to, sigh, Florida. NY OAG and Engoron didn't fall for that.

[Zorral]

Sez sumpin' sumpin' about sumpin' that his SIL isn't just loaning him the half bill out of his own 2 bill fortune, thanx to Saudi.

[Zorral]

Someone, not me, Elsewhere says, 

"... where I'm familiar with legal practice (a west coast state that doesn't border on another country), it's advisable to recite, in detail, the "diligent efforts" that were used to try to secure a bond. That is, naming the bonding agencies that you contacted, what they said, and why you couldn't meet their requirements for a bond. It can be rather humiliating for a wealthy judgment debtor to explain, chapter and verse, why he ain't got the dough he publicly brags about having."

[DMC]

39 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

The 450m is something NYS/James wants.

Yeah this is what I was going to say.  If you think Tish James is going to back off or strike some sort of deal for pennies on the dollar after she put her career on the line for this case -- and won -- then you really don't understand Tish James.

[ThinkerX]

44 minutes ago, DMC said:

Yeah this is what I was going to say.  If you think Tish James is going to back off or strike some sort of deal for pennies on the dollar after she put her career on the line for this case -- and won -- then you really don't understand Tish James.

Could Trump take that kind of hit - I am assuming asset forfeiture -and still remain viable. Or even 'rich?'

 

[DMC]

1 minute ago, ThinkerX said:

Could Trump take that kind of hit - I am assuming asset forfeiture -and still remain viable. Or even 'rich?'

 

I dunno.

[Zorral]

Only because Orban, Putin and the Saudis bail him out.

We all know the collateral they will receive in return from Our Country.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Depends on your definition of rich.

 

If we take accounting and estimations at face value, then he could take that hit. It would hurt. But his assets are supposedly above the 1 billion threshold (to call him a billionaire)*. Which is more than 500m. Would he still be a billionaire afterwards? that is a better question.

In addition, this nonsense anti-social is about to go public, so there he might get a very big cash infusion down the line (his shares are estimated to be worth another 2-3 bn, which he can't sell/access now for legal reasons. That's finance law/SEC stuff, so something zabz could probably say a thing or two in general terms, which is far better founded than what I could recall having read/heard.

And I am not sure how to evaluate/factor in those JaVanka middle East business deals. Fair assumption they wouldn't exist without her daddy's Presidency. As that's pretty blatant pay-to-play get into the ear of the GOP nominee. But would she actually bail out diaper Don?

*I've seen his assets (real estate mainly) to be worth in the region $ 1.5bn+. If that gets seized and acutioned off piece by piece, bits by bits. It might get sold at a knock off price/Trump name discount. Even if that market (bidders) will take a 30% discount rate, that would still be $ 1bn+. But for the sake of the argument, let's say 1bn. 1bn - 500m = 500m. By my standard, I'd still call that filthy rich.

 

[Zorral]

Metropolitan real estate/buildings are drags on the ledger these days.  Everywhere, particularly in NYC.  The developers/real estate moguls are desperate.  Which says something about the failures of their minion, the mayor of NYC, Eric Adams. Who, btw, got hit again, with a sexual assault charge. This one from way back when he was a honcho in the NYC police dept.

[maarsen]

29 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Depends on your definition of rich.

 

If we take accounting and estimations at face value, then he could take that hit. It would hurt. But his assets are supposedly above the 1 billion threshold (to call him a billionaire)*. Which is more than 500m. Would he still be a billionaire afterwards? that is a better question.

In addition, this nonsense anti-social is about to go public, so there he might get a very big cash infusion down the line (his shares are estimated to be worth another 2-3 bn, which he can't sell/access now for legal reasons. That's finance law/SEC stuff, so something zabz could probably say a thing or two in general terms, which is far better founded than what I could recall having read/heard.

And I am not sure how to evaluate/factor in those JaVanka middle East business deals. Fair assumption they wouldn't exist without her daddy's Presidency. As that's pretty blatant pay-to-play get into the ear of the GOP nominee. But would she actually bail out diaper Don?

*I've seen his assets (real estate mainly) to be worth in the region $ 1.5bn+. If that gets seized and acutioned off piece by piece, bits by bits. It might get sold at a knock off price/Trump name discount. Even if that market (bidders) will take a 30% discount rate, that would still be $ 1bn+. But for the sake of the argument, let's say 1bn. 1bn - 500m = 500m. By my standard, I'd still call that filthy rich.

 

All the above assumes he holds all those properties without mortgages or liens. There is more evidence that he is underwater with his assets than that he is free and clear. Remember he had trouble posting the $5 million bond in the defamation case when all he needed to do was have $500,000 on hand. All the grifting he has been doing since losing the election is not the sign of a billionaire but the sign of a nearly broke and desperate man.

[ThinkerX]

By now, the 'true market value' (if there is such an animal) of at least Trump's NYC properties must be known to the relevant courts. I wonder if they have potential buyers lined up - or if there have been any serious inquiries.

That said, I agree that Trump is almost certainly on the hook to a (hostile) foreign power for the one bond and will be again should the money for the other miraculously appear in the next few days. Trump loses the relevant appeals and the presidential election...

[JGP]

1 hour ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

 

And I am not sure how to evaluate/factor in those JaVanka middle East business deals. Fair assumption they wouldn't exist without her daddy's Presidency. As that's pretty blatant pay-to-play get into the ear of the GOP nominee. But would she actually bail out diaper Don?

 

The main issue with this avenue is J-boi got the 2 bil infusion for his [then] new hedge fund. Provided it operates as most funds do, and are under normal oversight, they just can't do whatever they want with the money unless the Saudis [and other investors of which I'm sure there are some] are ok with it. And even then iono. There's no way Jared's Fund isn't under some serious scrutiny.   

Edited March 18 by JGP

[Martell Spy]

When Peter Navarro goes to prison, he’ll hear the lions roar

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/18/politics/peter-navarro-miami-prison-supreme-court/index.html

Quote

 

Given his age, Navarro also will ask to be in a dormitory for elderly inmates that houses about 80 men in bunk beds.

“There’s no privacy in the dorm,” Mangel said. “It can be scary and intimidating. But he’s going to be perfectly safe.”

 

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

3 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

The 450m is something NYS/James wants. When it comes to chasing assets, I'd put my money on NY. This is not a private claimant, who might run out of breath/energy/money tracking the money. 

The reporting I was just listening to suggested her office can start seizing assets at the end of the month and there's not much recourse for Trump. The fun part is the government gets to make the evaluations of the value of said properties and leans and loans will probably be held against them.

53 minutes ago, JGP said:

The main issue with this avenue is J-boi got the 2 bil infusion for his [then] new hedge fund. Provided it operates as most funds do, and are under normal oversight, they just can't do whatever they want with the money unless the Saudis [and other investors of which I'm sure there are some] are ok with it. And even then iono. There's no way Jared's Fund isn't under some serious scrutiny.   

There's also rules about how Trump can raise the money. My understanding is some rich foreign party can't just come in and cover the bill. And as I've mentioned before, he likely doesn't and large percentage of the assets he claims to, so he can't just sell them quickly. It wouldn't surprise me if all he really owns is the Trump towers in NY and Chicago, M-A-L and a few golf courses, the latter which are terrible investments. 

 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

2 hours ago, maarsen said:

All the above assumes he holds all those properties without mortgages or liens. There is more evidence that he is underwater with his assets than that he is free and clear. Remember he had trouble posting the $5 million bond in the defamation case when all he needed to do was have $500,000 on hand. All the grifting he has been doing since losing the election is not the sign of a billionaire but the sign of a nearly broke and desperate man.

We don't know how many liens/mortages are there. I don't think he is underwater (but not free and clear either). With the 5m in the first Carroll case, didn't he end up posting the entire sum himself in cash, instead f going through a bond company? At least that's how I recall the chain of events there.

He then claimed he did, because of the interest rate of the bond company. Which didn't make sense. So more likely explanation was, that he didn't want them to have a look into his finances. Which might look terrible, or it was a strategic decission to hide it as much as possible with the NYAG trial pending. So I am sorta neutral on that one.

 

24 minutes ago, Mr. Chatywin et al. said:

The reporting I was just listening to suggested her office can start seizing assets at the end of the month and there's not much recourse for Trump. The fun part is the government gets to make the evaluations of the value of said properties and leans and loans will probably be held against them.

My understanding is, if stuff gets auctioned off. Valuation being the sales price (minus liens, taxes etc.)

Let's say Trump Tower goes for 300m (no idea, I am just naming a random number). Hypothetically there's lien on it which in combination with taxes etc. makes up 250m. 300m - 250m = 50m

450m - 50m = 400m.

Next stop 40 Wall Street. That goes for 500m let's say liens taxes etc, is 300m. 500m -300m = 200m

400m - 200m = 200m

Next stop his NYC appartment (aka the triplex).

Next stop seven springs Trump Tower Chicago, the Golf club/family cemetary in NJ.

NAR-A-Lago will presumably go last, as that is his private residence, where he lives. Fun note, if I am not mistaken Donk jr.'s (and/or Eric's) homes are also company properties (for tax reasons). So a black woman evicting members of the Trump family would be one of those actually funny little ironies.

Let's go Tish!

[DMC]

I think it's silly to do back-of-the-napkin math of the assets of quite literally the biggest liar in the world when it comes to his assets.  It's 100% speculation.  Just wait and see.

[LongRider]

17 minutes ago, DMC said:

I think it's silly to do back-of-the-napkin math of the assets of quite literally the biggest liar in the world when it comes to his assets.  It's 100% speculation.  Just wait and see.

Don't take all the fun out of this!  Speculation until the facts come in and then we'll be holy shit, the man is broke!   

[A Horse Named Stranger]

You don't say. This wasn't about the made up numbers, but about the mechanism, and how the value would be determined/calculated.

I have not looked up how any of those things are valued. And neither do the Trumpkins. So it would be kinda funny to keep my random numbers in mind to compare them to their made up numbers and see who was closer to market value.

And US politics have been silly for the past 8 years+

 

Just sayin'

Edited March 19 by A Horse Named Stranger
/ added for the boarders in Minnesota

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

10 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

 determinedcalculated.

English doesn't work like German. You can't just smash words together.

But back to the topic, it was interesting hearing a brief breakdown of more Trump properties. As I assumed, he doesn't own 100% of much a number of his main assets. For example he only owns the public facing parts of Trump Tower and then his residence and a few other condos. If that's accurate then it's not worth nearly enough to cover the costs. They also said that because a lot of his properties have people paying dues/memberships he can't just sell them off without a nightmare amount of paperwork. Their speculation was that because of this and that he couldn't secure a third party bond is why he has little chance of paying the cost to appeal.  

[DMC]

39 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

You don't say.

Wasn't just talking about you nor even this thread.  Just all the wasted ink and breath on this shit when it's just like who the fuck knows?