North Korea shells South Korean island

[Werthead]

Seems like South Korea is now mobilizing the military. Seems like the shit is getting real, then again I doubt that China is interested in a war right now. They don't want US soldiers near them so somehow they have to help NK when the Koreans start killing each other.

Formal mobilization has not taken place, although the SK army is on alert. If it did mobilize, North Korea would likely have to attack immediately. It's often said that North Korea's army is larger, but that's only its standing army. If South Korea fully mobilized all of its reserves and had time to deploy them, they would dwarf the North Korean military at least twice over, and be far better-equipped. So South Korea will not fully mobilize (at least, not publicly) without a far greater threat, for fear of triggering a conflict.

China's involvement will be a bit like Kosovo, when Russia sent troops in to prevent NATO/the EU taking over altogether. So if a war happens, China will likely send a 'peacekeeping' force to Pyongyang to 'safeguard' the city and its Chinese workers and citizens. Certainly Beijing will not be shedding too many tears if their mentally unstable and trouble-making ally keels over, but they'll also definitely not want American troops on their border. These days they may not even be too bothered about Korea reunifying under the leadership of the South (since, based on the German model, it'll be decades before Korea's economy recovers from the strain) as that will make for a new market on their doorstep and will hopefully keep the tidal wave of refugees heading south rather than into China. American troops on the border would likely be unacceptable for China (although, arguably, there already are in Afghanistan).

@Wert: Is there any indication that the NK regime is going to fall? I mean apart from the Western propaganda? China would never allow that. Especially not now.

North Korea is totally fucked. It can't feed itself and is reliant on food shipments from outside. Hilariously, the North and South are actually currently discussing expansion of South Korea's food assistance to the North. The agricultural system that exists is reliant on outside assistance (last year the BBC visited a North Korean farm where the government handlers proudly showed of a 'state-of-the-art Communist tractor' which clearly had 'EU Agricultural Assistance' stickers still stuck on it), whilst the towns and cities all need government-tolerated black markets operating quite openly, otherwise the populace would starve. The country has never recovered from the mid-1990s famine which killed about 1.5 million people there and has barely scraped by since then, with almost all of its money being pumped into the military and the nuclear programme instead.

However, there is no will in the country to challenge the government. The goverment will likely only fall in a war or if North Korea's economy disintegrates. Again, in that instance China will likely send forces to secure the city and maybe prop up a proxy government, an outcome that frankly the USA (if not South Korea) may prefer to an accentric North Korean regime being in charge of the country.

Based on a lack of escalation in the last few hours, though, they may have dodged a bullet today and things may return to normal.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

When is sunset in Korea, or is it already night there?

[Cantabile]

When is sunset in Korea, or is it already night there?

It's nearly midnight there.

[Werthead]

On the subject of China's attitude, there have been 'academic' discussions in the Chinese media recently debating whether China's alliance with North Korea is still worthwhile and reasonable, given that North Korea might involve China in a political crisis or even outright war that it doesn't want. Given the Chinese government's attitude to dissenting opinions (i.e. there aren't any, certainly not on state TV or in state newspapers), it's possible this is China's subtle way of telling North Korea, "Don't get us involved in your clusterfucks, otherwise we might not be there." If so, it's clearly not working very well.

[Brude]

It would be a vast improvement if China could remove the N. Korean regime and replace it with a puppet based on their own model. No, it wouldn't be as free as S. Korea and I'd certainly much rather see either a unification under that government or at least a free democracy there, but as an alternative to what is there now, it would be far, far better. I'm sure it's much more complicated than just "removing them from power," though. Such a move could cause them to lash out in who knows what way if it failed.

Under a Chinese model they might be able to come back to something approaching normalcy in 30 years or so. China was in pretty bad shape after Mao and his policies which were pretty ruinous, but once Deng instituted his reforms in the last 70's and 80's, that started turning things around.

[peterbound]

When i was stationed at Osan we had a couple of scares that put us on full alert status. Nothing like this though. I bet the guys up at Humphreys are shitting bricks right now.

[Spastic Plastic]

What Werthead said seems most likely, if a war were to break out right now. South Korea, with Japanese and US backing, would destroy North Korea but with horrible losses on both sides. China would send in huge peacekeeping forces, both to keep the peace and to claim Pyongyang before the US does.

[mormont]

I know little about the Korean situation, but is it possible that the increasingly bellicose behaviour of the armed forces reflects some sort of internal political problem linked to the succession?

[Kouran]

Wouldnt the realpolitik answer for the US and China to be something on the order of, you stand aside and immediately after the war is over we pull our troops, ships and planes out of south korea. That way both sides come out with a win, China removes the American pressence from Korea and the US removes NK.

Granted you would probably see 150-250k deaths in the few weeks the war would last but it would be over fairly quickly. The North doesnt have the logistics to make it last long and the South plus US would have complete air dominance within a very short window of time.

[jurble]

I like how all the news channels are talking about Dancing with the Stars. Nice job, America.

Anyways, nothing is gonna happen here. New sanctions or something, probably, if anything at all.

[Mexal]

Wouldnt the realpolitik answer for the US and China to be something on the order of, you stand aside and immediately after the war is over we pull our troops, ships and planes out of south korea. That way both sides come out with a win, China removes the American pressence from Korea and the US removes NK.

Granted you would probably see 150-250k deaths in the few weeks the war would last but it would be over fairly quickly. The North doesnt have the logistics to make it last long and the South plus US would have complete air dominance within a very short window of time.

What is the topography of NK? Is it flat? Mountainous? Hilly?

[Former Lord of Winterfell]

The question is did North Korea feel able to do this because South Korea failed to act when one of their warships was sunk by North Korean forces? Will a feeble (or at least perceived feeble) response this time simply encourage North Korea to take more and more steps?

The problem is that no-one wants to provoke a war. South Korea, Japan and the USA would win any such war quite handily, but the death toll on all sides would be horrendous and would trigger the collapse of North Korea, with a massive resulting humanitarian crisis for South Korea and China. But does that mean that South Korea has to just sit there and accept its soldiers and citizens being killed and injured?

The current toll is 3 soldiers dead, 17 injured and 3 civilians injured as well. There's no way South Korea can just sit there and accept that, especially since its retaliatory strike so far appears to have achieved jack shit.

EDIT: South Korea has just said this is the biggest violation of the armistice since the end of the Korean War and warns of a significant response to any further activity. Seriously worrying.

From what I have read, this was a dispute over live-fire exercises the South Koreans conducted on that island. The North warned them not to conduct the exercises, the South did, so the North fired. Their "excuse" is that the South fired first, but obviously, the SOuth wasn't firing in the direction of the North.

Still, I don't think this is necessarily the prelude to full war. It's a dispute over conducting live fire exercises near the border.

[Spastic Plastic]

What is the topography of NK? Is it flat? Mountainous? Hilly?

It's mountainous and hilly, mostly (though not as hilly as the Ottoman Empire).

A war between North and South Korea would be over pretty fast. There would be heavy losses in the first few weeks, but North Korea is a small country and just doesn't have the logistics.

[jurble]

imo, best option here would be, to scramble the jets, bomb all their artillery positions first, and then bomb the airfields. Afterward, bomb the nuclear facilities, if ya wanna. Then establish a No-fly Zone over N. Korea, and bomb them at random intervals to let them know who's boss.

[S John]

Maybe its one of those things where I've jsut been paying more attention lately, but it seems to me that there has been a lot going on between these two countries in the last year or so. Just makes me wonder what the NK's are angling for. If the armchair generals of the board are correct then NK not only cannot win, but cannot even hold out for a sustained period of time against SK and the US.

Surely the leaders of that country realize this? I know that the population is kept in the dark about, well, everything... but are those in the know also overestimating thier own military might? Becuase if they have a realistic grasp on the military situation (ie. starting a war = defeat) then what makes them so confident that they can shell thier neighbors without setting off a war? I realize that this particular border has been tit-for-tat for 50 years... but an artillery barrage into a populated area is a big fuckin' deal. Do you realize how apeshit the US would go if someone shelled an American town? I just wonder what the NK's are thinking, and why they're pushing the envelope lately.

[Harlot]

NK is a nuclear power. And they are crazy enough to use nukes. You all keep saying "casualities of 250k in the first few weeks before they are crushed." I assume you aren't factoring in any attempts by NK to use nukes either on the penninsula or at Japan. Part of NK's whole schtick is that they want everyone to know they are crazy enough to do this, especially if they are desperate or desperately losing.

ETA: Also I'm not sure what the US's capability is for conventional ground forces in Asia, naval and air power I'm confident we'll kick ass.

[Spastic Plastic]

Surely the leaders of that country realize this? I know that the population is kept in the dark about, well, everything... but are those in the know also overestimating thier own military might? Becuase if they have a realistic grasp on the military situation (ie. starting a war = defeat) then what makes them so confident that they can shell thier neighbors without setting off a war?

Two things - confidence that China will have their back whenever a pissing contest with South Korea breaks out, and a sort of circle of insanity where the North Korean higher-ups either don't know their own military capabilities, or they do know them and are too scared to tell Kim Jong Il what the situation really is like.

Then there's always the danger that the North Koreans will trigger their nukes for no other reason than petty revenge, as a final "fuck you" to South Korea.

[gladius]

why they're pushing the envelope lately.

blackmail

you give us something or everyone loses.

[Lord of Oop North]

Two things - confidence that China will have their back whenever a pissing contest with South Korea breaks out, and a sort of circle of insanity where the North Korean higher-ups either don't know their own military capabilities, or they do know them and are too scared to tell Kim Jong Il what the situation really is like.

Then there's always the danger that Kim Jong Il will trigger his nukes for no other reason than last-ditch revenge, as a final "fuck you" to South Korea.

I think that this is really naive. What is more likely, in my opinion, is that the North Koreans realize that no one wants to deal with the massive casualties that the war would cause, and the economic burden that occupying the north would require. Knowing this, they can blackmail their enemies into dealing with them.

[jurble]

China would not aid N. Korea at this point, if the US decided to bomb the shit out of it. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if that's what our envoy in Beijing is discussing with the Chinese right now, hypothetically, of course. Maybe a decade ago, they would have assisted N. Korea or threatened, but at this point, the Chinese leadership is fed-up with North Korea, and China's economic ties with the US have only grown stronger.