NFL 2012 Week 14/15 The Unfrozen Tundra

[Rockroi]

The Sanchize one is almost all guaranteed though because, shockingly I know, Mike Tannebaum is an idiot.

I wasn't totally sure about this, but it makes sense because, well, Tannebaum is as stupid as curdled milk. After all, one of the reasons the Jets could not cut Santonio Holmes after the 2011 season (where Holmes basically blamed everyone else for the team's problems) was not only was all his money guaranteed, but according to Mike Lombardi (NFL Network) his money was guaranteed by the Jets even if he signed with another team. That is, bottom lime, insane.

[Jaime L]

I wasn't totally sure about this, but it makes sense because, well, Tannebaum is as stupid as curdled milk. After all, one of the reasons the Jets could not cut Santonio Holmes after the 2011 season (where Holmes basically blamed everyone else for the team's problems) was not only was all his money guaranteed, but according to Mike Lombardi (NFL Network) his money was guaranteed by the Jets even if he signed with another team. That is, bottom lime, insane.

That's why I'm almost thinking Rex Ryan is fairly brilliant as a coach (not as a man). If you look at Tannenbaum's draft history, it is just horrendous since he drafted Revis 5 years ago. And the FA's he's brought in are guys like Holmes, Tebow and Burress, guys whose fame ompletely outstrips their ability to help you win. He also got a team that was hitting on all cylinders to the point that it could carry Mark Sanchez to two AFC Championship games. Not to mention he's done the hardest thing and put together an elite defense without a single pass rusher of note. Even as that has started fading due to injuries, lack of talent and Mark Sanchez he still seems to have fantastic ability to pull out the winnable ones and win ugly.

Granted Rex Ryan is part of the problem when he weighs in on personnel. And he can be his own worst enemy by contributing to the carnival like atmosphere that surrounds that team 24/7. But in terms of pure X's and O's coaching acumen, there seems to be a certain demonstrable talent there to turn some amount of chicken shit into (still a bit disgusting) chicken salad.

[Mexal]

That's why I'm almost thinking Rex Ryan is fairly brilliant as a coach (not as a man). If you look at Tannenbaum's draft history, it is just horrendous since he drafted Revis 5 years ago. And the FA's he's brought in are guys like Holmes, Tebow and Burress, guys whose fame ompletely outstrips their ability to help you win. He also got a team that was hitting on all cylinders to the point that it could carry Mark Sanchez to two AFC Championship games. Not to mention he's done the hardest thing and put together an elite defense without a single pass rusher of note. Even as that has started fading due to injuries, lack of talent and Mark Sanchez he still seems to have fantastic ability to pull out the winnable ones and win ugly.

Granted Rex Ryan is part of the problem when he weighs in on personnel. And he can be his own worst enemy by contributing to the carnival like atmosphere that surrounds that team 24/7. But in terms of pure X's and O's coaching acumen, there seems to be a certain demonstrable talent there to turn some amount of chicken shit into (still a bit disgusting) chicken salad.

Right but here's the question. What if the talent was there but Rex Ryan's staff wasn't good enough to develop it? That is ultimately the difference between a good coaching staff and a bad one right?

He seems to be a good motivator and players like playing for him but I question his ability to develop players. I haven't see him do it really.

[Sivin]

A tasteful compilation of photos of two time Superbowl MVP Eli Manning.

Ed note: Authenticity of 100% of the above photos cannot be confirmed at this time.

Eli looks a lot like Kyle Orton sometimes...

Been like this for a long time. We might not always agree and we can get heated but the level of discourse, especially when it comes to football knowledge, is generally top notch here. Just ignore everything that Sivin says.

When Ratliff is talked about being on the decline, what is meant is that he has been losing games to injury. When he is healthy, and on the field, he is still at least a top 10 NG in the game. The problem has been that he is rarely on the field. It is turning into a <No Record In System> kind of thing.

DO NOT EVER SPEAK OF HIM!

[Jaime L]

Right but here's the question. What if the talent was there but Rex Ryan's staff wasn't good enough to develop it? That is ultimately the difference between a good coaching staff and a bad one right?

He seems to be a good motivator and players like playing for him but I question his ability to develop players. I haven't see him do it really.

It's a fair question though I never how much of a guy's success is attributable to the team and the coaching staff he plays for. Even Bill Belichick, the best coach in the game hasn't had luck developing many of his own draft picks in recent years. He's of the "accumulate as many draft picks as possible school because no matter what you do, some of these guys won't work out" school. I never know what the percentage is that a coach contributes to a guy's success or how much is just raw talent/work ethic etc. I tend to think of most NFL picks as close to finished products, who maybe still have things to learn, but will get that instruction assuming the coaching staff is at some base level of competency. I mostly think you either got it or you don't with some exceptions (the Giants seem to develop talent exceptionally well; the 49ers only now under Harbaugh seem to have everyone playing up to their potential etc.)

I think the only way we could tell is if guys left the Jets and became a lot better on another team. I can't think of anyone like that recently. I do however, see a lot of guys who don't flash a lot of raw talent and look like reaches to me (Sanchez, Greene) but even more than that when I look back at prior drafts I see the Jets futzing away picks every year Redskins style. Still not sure what the Jets have to show for all the picks they haven't made over the last 4 years.

[Fez]

Right but here's the question. What if the talent was there but Rex Ryan's staff wasn't good enough to develop it? That is ultimately the difference between a good coaching staff and a bad one right?

He seems to be a good motivator and players like playing for him but I question his ability to develop players. I haven't see him do it really.

Ryan has fully admitted that prior to this year he never spent enough time working with the offense, only the defense (now whether his closer offensive involvement has made it worse or if the situation had gotten so bad that there wasn't much he could do this past offseason is debatable). Now that's fine as far as it goes, there's a reason coordinators exist. But a good GM should've told Ryan, "okay, that's fine. You're doing great things with that defense, but here's a list of really good potential OCs; pick one". Instead they stuck with Schotty Jr. for far too long and I don't see Tony Sparano as a great replacement.

I do blame Ryan for that, but I don't see it as fireable. But Tannebaum, with his horrible personnel decisions and ineffectiveness at providing oversight, he should be fired. And I really wish Woody Johnson would sell the team as well. He's far more concerned at competing with the Giants for the top spot in the tabloids (the whole reason for the Tebow trade) than he is at winning.

[Independent George]

I do blame Ryan for that, but I don't see it as fireable. But Tannebaum, with his horrible personnel decisions and ineffectiveness at providing oversight, he should be fired. And I really wish Woody Johnson would sell the team as well. He's far more concerned at competing with the Giants for the top spot in the tabloids (the whole reason for the Tebow trade) than he is at winning.

The amusing thing is that their obssession with headlines is the complete opposite of the way the Giants operate.

Quick - no Google allowed: who's the Giants' GM?

Ok, maybe the regulars here can answer that, but even most Giants fans have to think about it for a minute. I can't even tell you how many times I've had conversations with people who are shocked to learn he's black.

[Jaime L]

Quick - no Google allowed: who's the Giants' GM?

Jerry Reese.

What do I win?

ETA: A real GM for my team? Or just a powerless figurehead? The latter? Ok, cool.

[Kalbear]

Heh. I made this prediction in the mascot rules stuff:

Browns are a dog. Named after the owner but they've always been a dog.

Chargers/Jets are more tricky. You can make them both human professions/references (Jets vs. Sharks) but in reality what you're missing is the truth; these are both human created. Are they human or humanoid? No. Therefore they are Other. And therefore they will beat the Redskins.

Texans are humanoid in theory; their mascot simply refers to their giant skulls that they have to put on the front of their car per Texan law.

Unfortunately we will have to wait until week 15 to prove this completely, but mark it down - the Redskins are going to fucking get pwnd against the Browns.

Behold the power of the Browns - able to strike down RG3's knee without even playing him.

[Kalbear]

Also:

Bronn Stone, on 25 October 2012 - 08:34 AM, said:

As long as both teams have the same turnaround, I don't see the issue. Somewhat unfair I guess if the visitors have a long flight, but I don't know if that is true or not.

And as for Luck-RG3, I have given up arguing but not believing. I'll bring it up again a month from now when there is no doubt.

No doubt as to who the MVP is, eh?

[Jaxom 1974]

Right but here's the question. What if the talent was there but Rex Ryan's staff wasn't good enough to develop it? That is ultimately the difference between a good coaching staff and a bad one right?

He seems to be a good motivator and players like playing for him but I question his ability to develop players. I haven't see him do it really.

Replace Rex with Lovie and it still says the same thing...

[Sivin]

The amusing thing is that their obssession with headlines is the complete opposite of the way the Giants operate.

Quick - no Google allowed: who's the Giants' GM?

Ok, maybe the regulars here can answer that, but even most Giants fans have to think about it for a minute. I can't even tell you how many times I've had conversations with people who are shocked to learn he's black.

I also knew it is Jerry Reese. He was hired after the 2006 season, and is responsible for the majority of the moves that have kept a 2-time Superbowl winning team from becoming poisoned by its own success.

ETA: Goodell considers expanding playoffs.

This man has to go. What a fucking retard. The article sums up my feelings fairly well, if half the league makes it into the playoffs, what's the accomplishment?

[Lightning Lord]

Stats-people...just how terrible is QBR in terms of reflection of actual play? It seems pretty rubbish to me, but I'm really behind the pack in this area. I read ESPN bloggers and one of them does a weekly MVP watch. He touts QBR in every quarterback entry and pretty well ignores every other stat. Is this just ESPN trying to increase the viability of their self-made stat through repetition?

[Sivin]

Stats-people...just how terrible is QBR in terms of reflection of actual play? It seems pretty rubbish to me, but I'm really behind the pack in this area. I read ESPN bloggers and one of them does a weekly MVP watch. He touts QBR in every quarterback entry and pretty well ignores every other stat. Is this just ESPN trying to increase the viability of their self-made stat through repetition?

ESPN has a 24-hour show and a 24-hour website to fill with news on a world that makes maybe 2 or three headlines (maybe) a day. They're just trying to liven up the recycled shit.

[Howdyphillip]

ETA: Goodell considers expanding playoffs.

This man has to go. What a fucking retard. The article sums up my feelings fairly well, if half the league makes it into the playoffs, what's the accomplishment?

Goodell is doing his level best to destroy everything that Taglibue and Rosell created. I can't entirely blame him, as he is just the figure head of an increasingly out of control ownership.

Bounty Gate is another prime example of the league sabotaging itself. Speaking of Bounty Gate, Does anyone here want to eat some crow and admit they were wrong with their judgments now that facts have come to light?

[Mexal]

Stats-people...just how terrible is QBR in terms of reflection of actual play? It seems pretty rubbish to me, but I'm really behind the pack in this area. I read ESPN bloggers and one of them does a weekly MVP watch. He touts QBR in every quarterback entry and pretty well ignores every other stat. Is this just ESPN trying to increase the viability of their self-made stat through repetition?

QBR is more or less the worst statistical measurement of a QB's performance. It hardly ever passes the eye test and seems to contradict all other measurements. ESPN, being the creator of QBR, uses it and only it but I hardly ever read any other people siting it.

[Kalbear]

In theory qbr should be great. The basic way it works is that they have scouts watching every single qb play and can do things like gauge incompletes and ints being the qbs fault, how much yac the receivers get and how far the passes are, gauge success by down and distance needed, etc. they can also blame the qb for sacks and the like.

The implementation is horrible. It cares about the clutchiness of the qb, making scoring when down in the 4th way better than almost anything. It's a rating, not a cumulative score, so you can have a guy throw for almost nothing get big wins. Tebow topping qbr should tell you everything about it.

If real stats guys actually got to use this data it could be awesome. They don't.

[Bronn Stone]

No doubt as to who the MVP is, eh?

9-4. I will admit doubt still remains. But Luck still has my vote.

ETA: You have to give a lot of credit to RGIII. Because his success is all him and nothing to do with Shanahan's offense and the huge advantage Alfred Morris brings. No way in hell the Redskins could complete a major comeback without Griffin, with a non-entity like Kirk Cousins trying to drive the field with that team and lead Washington to victory.

[balefired-ed]

Changing gears, can the Texans fix themselves in order to make a playoff run? The asskicking they took on Monday was not an exception, they have been terrible on defense for about the past month.

They've given up 42, 10, 31, and 37 points in their last four games. If they fall behind, they seem incapable of winning.

[Jaime L]

Going to 16 playoff teams would be a fucking travesty. Let's hope they're not considering it seriously.

If it was in place this year, it would completely destroy the wild card race in the AFC. Indy, Cincy and Pitt would all already be in without a fight plus, currently, the Jets. This Jets team would be in the drivers seat for a playoff spot as though they've earned it, seriously? It would utterly destroy meaingful December football for just about everyone involved (the only remaining drama would be 6-7 and 5-8 teams jockeying for the last spot(s)) and way earlier for teams like Houston and Atlanta who aren't playing for byes anymore. In one fell swoop they'd devalue their own regular season nearly as horrifically as the NBA and NHL did.

Stats-people...just how terrible is QBR in terms of reflection of actual play? It seems pretty rubbish to me, but I'm really behind the pack in this area. I read ESPN bloggers and one of them does a weekly MVP watch. He touts QBR in every quarterback entry and pretty well ignores every other stat. Is this just ESPN trying to increase the viability of their self-made stat through repetition?

Here's the current QBR rankings. It seems to, for the most part, pass the eye test and roughly match where I'd rank these guys. FO's started including it as a column on their DVOA rankings now though that may be a requirement of their relationship with ESPN.

But if you look at that page, it's a mess. 9 columns of numbers that don't have an inherent logic or flow (I don't really get what Run EPA is or how it's measured and I don't know why Matt Ryan's score is 10x higher than Tom Brady or even better than RGIII - that doesn't make intuitive sense to me.) I don't get how the numbers add up to QBR and like Kal says it's not auditable. It's all based on this "trust us" premise which is kind of bullshit. FO's stats may look like gibberish as well but at least they do a quick writeup every week to explain why a guy ended up where he did. It builds trust that way even as it gives you a window into possible flaws in it, I feel like I'm getting meaningful and consistent evaluations week after week. It becomes another tool. QBR is just a black box and in no way has ESPN ever proven worthy of implicit trust.