NFL 2012 Week 14/15 The Unfrozen Tundra

[BLU-RAY]

Yeah, with FO stats, I get the impression that I could start from first principles and turn their raw data into their final product if I actually wanted to (and had some guidance as to how they treated it)... or at least I could understand it when given their adjustment factors and rationales thereof.

With QBR, the implication is mostly just that it's deep magic.

[Lightning Lord]

Okay, seems like more or less what I've been thinking about it. I saw that Ponder and Gabbert weren't jockeying for position at the bottom made me suspicious..

[Kalbear]

Well bronn, not everyone can be the leader in throwing tds in the league like luck can. Wait - is throwing tds to the other team bad? I forget.

[Bronn Stone]

Well bronn, not everyone can be the leader in throwing tds in the league like luck can. Wait - is throwing tds to the other team bad? I forget.

We can't all be fans of the second-highest rated rookie QB on the Redskins

And just in case Sivin is still reading - Bob Sanders!

[Independent George]

Yeah, with FO stats, I get the impression that I could start from first principles and turn their raw data into their final product if I actually wanted to (and had some guidance as to how they treated it)... or at least I could understand it when given their adjustment factors and rationales thereof.

With QBR, the implication is mostly just that it's deep magic.

Exactly. The three most commonly used advanced stats are:

1. DVOA/DYAR (Football Outsiders)

2. WPA/EPA (Advanced NFL Stats)

3. ANY/A (Pro Football Reference)

I don't know the formulas for the first two, but I understand how they're derived; they have a database of NFL plays dating back to X, and compare the results of plays against that database to evaluate their success. FO scores them on a curve, giving (or taking away) points based on how the average QB did in the same situation; Advanced NFL Stats scores them on an absolute scale based on how the outcome changed the winning % and chance of scoring. Maybe more importantly, its authors often take the time to describe how certain big plays are scored, and why they are scored that way. It's about as transparent a process as proprietary information can get. Anyone can calculate ANY/A on the back of a napkin.

All have their flaws, but their transparent enough about them that I can balance that in my head with what I see on the field. Only ESPN's QBR is presumptuous enough to call it a 'Total' rating, as if it were the only thing you need to evaluate play. On top of that, it's a black box that nobody understands, and they've never deigned to explain.

So yeah - I tend to ignore QBR.

[Mexal]

Out of curiosity, which of these two teams is in the playoff race? Philadelphia or Cincinnati? Because from watching NFL Network this morning and yesterday, it seems Philly is. I haven't seen a single story on the Bengals yet I've seen report after report after report on the Eagles.

I know this shit happens all the time and I have complained before, but come on. Bengals are playing for a playoff spot and the Eagles are 4-9. Before the year, I understand but not now, not in the middle of a playoff race.

[DanteGabriel]

Out of curiosity, which of these two teams is in the playoff race? Philadelphia or Cincinnati? Because from watching NFL Network this morning and yesterday, it seems Philly is. I haven't seen a single story on the Bengals yet I've seen report after report after report on the Eagles.

I know this shit happens all the time and I have complained before, but come on. Bengals are playing for a playoff spot and the Eagles are 4-9. Before the year, I understand but not now, not in the middle of a playoff race.

Because viewers are more interested in watching the slow-motion implosion a team that's been good for over a decade, with a previously-successful coach who's been turned into a Dead Man Walking. Come on, the Eagles story is full of the great themes of American life: underachievement by high-pedigreed individuals, unearned entitlement, people being promoted out of their core competency, the ensuing blame-shifting management, the shameful slide of a once-mighty organization into disorganized fuckuppery... Plus the fourth or fifth narrative turn in Michael Vick's career.

Seriously, the Vick thing -- up, down, up, down, up, down -- and every turn has been fairly epic. Has any QB had a more "dramatic" career that lasted so long and had so many twists? There's going to be a 30 for 30 about him some day, right?

[Maithanet]

Okay, seems like more or less what I've been thinking about it. I saw that Ponder and Gabbert weren't jockeying for position at the bottom made me suspicious..

I get QBR and Passer Rating confused, because before ESPN trotted out their stupid QBR, Passer Rating and Quarterback Rating were used synonymously. Now, Passer Rating isn't always great either, (particularly in college ball), but in the NFL, the competition is sufficiently comparable that it is an OK stat. Not fantastic, but decent.

Top 5 QBs are:

Brady, Griffin, Smith, Manning, Rodgers. Looking at the numbers it is surprising that Smith is there, but this metric really values avoiding interceptions, and he does that.

Bottom 5 QBs (minimum 10 games) are:

Sanchez, Tannehill, Weedon, Luck , Gabbert, Ponder. I would agree that Gabbert and Ponder should be below all of the rookies, and possibly Sanchez as well. And if Lindley and Skelton combined into one QB, he would be far below any of them. But nonetheless, it gives a fair idea of what quarterbacks have poor completion percentage and ball security.

We can't all be fans of the second-highest rated rookie QB on the Redskins

Comparing Griffin unfavorably to Cousins just makes you look foolish. Cousins has played less than one half of football and has 2 tds and 2 interceptions. Griffin has played 13 games, with 24 tds and 4 interceptions. If you want to argue those are comparable, I'd love to hear it.

Seriously, the Vick thing -- up, down, up, down, up, down -- and every turn has been fairly epic. Has any QB had a more "dramatic" career that lasted so long and had so many twists? There's going to be a 30 for 30 about him some day, right?

Absolutely, and I'll watch it.

[Mexal]

Comparing Griffin unfavorably to Cousins just makes you look foolish. Cousins has played less than one half of football and has 2 tds and 2 interceptions. Griffin has played 13 games, with 24 tds and 4 interceptions. If you want to argue those are comparable, I'd love to hear it.

I agree. It's completely disingenuous. Cousins did his job by making three plays. That does not mean that if he started, he'd have 24 TDs to RG3's 4 interceptions over the course of the year because of "Shannahan's system".

RG3 is still the front runner for OROY and in my mind, it's not even close, especially with the Redskins competing for a playoff birth which was more or less the only thing you could give to Luck over RG3.

[Sivin]

Goodell is doing his level best to destroy everything that Taglibue and Rosell created. I can't entirely blame him, as he is just the figure head of an increasingly out of control ownership.

Bounty Gate is another prime example of the league sabotaging itself. Speaking of Bounty Gate, Does anyone here want to eat some crow and admit they were wrong with their judgments now that facts have come to light?

What new facts? That the former commish backed out?

Changing gears, can the Texans fix themselves in order to make a playoff run? The asskicking they took on Monday was not an exception, they have been terrible on defense for about the past month.

They've given up 42, 10, 31, and 37 points in their last four games. If they fall behind, they seem incapable of winning.

The Texans are this year's Atlanta Falcons... but, so are this year's Atlanta Falcons... :(

We can't all be fans of the second-highest rated rookie QB on the Redskins

And just in case Sivin is still reading - Bob Sanders!

Arggh!

I get QBR and Passer Rating confused, because before ESPN trotted out their stupid QBR, Passer Rating and Quarterback Rating were used synonymously. Now, Passer Rating isn't always great either, (particularly in college ball), but in the NFL, the competition is sufficiently comparable that it is an OK stat. Not fantastic, but decent.

Top 5 QBs are:

Brady, Griffin, Smith, Manning, Rodgers. Looking at the numbers it is surprising that Smith is there, but this metric really values avoiding interceptions, and he does that.

Bottom 5 QBs (minimum 10 games) are:

Sanchez, Tannehill, Weedon, Luck , Gabbert, Ponder. I would agree that Gabbert and Ponder should be below all of the rookies, and possibly Sanchez as well. And if Lindley and Skelton combined into one QB, he would be far below any of them. But nonetheless, it gives a fair idea of what quarterbacks have poor completion percentage and ball security.

Comparing Griffin unfavorably to Cousins just makes you look foolish. Cousins has played less than one half of football and has 2 tds and 2 interceptions. Griffin has played 13 games, with 24 tds and 4 interceptions. If you want to argue those are comparable, I'd love to hear it.

Absolutely, and I'll watch it.

Damn straight, and don't you forget it. My boy slings that ball like a fat kid slingin' cowpies.

[DanteGabriel]

Damn straight, and don't you forget it. My boy slings that ball like a fat kid slingin' cowpies.

Do fat kids sling cowpies especially well? Would that be because of superior leverage? I am just trying to parse the simile...

[Jaxom 1974]

And why does it have to be a fat kid? Why not a farm kid?

[Fez]

If the NFL expanded the playoffs, I'm honestly not sure I'd even bother watching the regular season anymore (at least outside of marquee games); because what's the point? I don't watch anywhere close to every Sabres game, (well I might this year if there's ever a season), or every Red Sox game, or that many of the really good NBA games (no team for this guy!). One of the biggest appeals of the NFL is just how important the regular season still is. There's only 16 games and every single one is important. And you almost always need at least 9 or 10 wins to make the playoffs, which means there's never really any true fodder there.

And its unbelievable that the Jets could be in the drivers seat for the playoffs right now. They're 6-7 and somewhat lucky to be there. They should only get to playoffs if they can reach 9-7, meaning they won 6 of their final 7 games, and catch a couple breaks from the other contenders for the spot. They don't deserve to already be pretty well assured of a spot. To reach the playoffs you should have to either be great, really good or good and lucky.

I'd say I can't believe the NFL could be so stupid; but after the past few year, I can. I really, really can.

[DanteGabriel]

Yeah, please don't expand the playoffs. Even as a fan of a team that missed the cut-off despite having the same record as a division champ a couple of times in recent memory, I like how small the playoff pool is. Come on, weren't we talking about how ridiculous it was that 8-8 teams were going to the playoffs, just a couple of years ago? Who wants to see mediocre teams with losing records trudge into the playoffs, like the NBA?

I like 32 teams, 16 games, and 12 playoff teams. The math for all of it is just perfect. Don't fuck with any of it, NFL.

[Bronn Stone]

Comparing Griffin unfavorably to Cousins just makes you look foolish. Cousins has played less than one half of football and has 2 tds and 2 interceptions. Griffin has played 13 games, with 24 tds and 4 interceptions. If you want to argue those are comparable, I'd love to hear it.

Someone looks foolish here. I think it is the one who can't take a joke.

The only real point behind it is that there is a tiny bit of evidence that the system is part of the success.

Hint to Mexal: Playoff births can only happen in the Lingerie Football league, and even then I think someone would stop things before it got to that.

[Kalbear]

And for luck there's a ton of evidence that its shitty teams that is the reason for his wins. I think wins are a poor way in general of rating qbs and I think that rg3 has had much better stats playing against significantly harder opponents while meaning more to his team. System is great and all, but he still has to make those plays. Luck hasn't made as many.

Another aspect - the red skins have been in every single game this season save perhaps the pit game. The colts - thanks to io believe 5 pick-sixes - have been completely dismantled a few times. Luck is leading in 4th quarter comebacks because he's looked so bad early on.

[Mexal]

And for luck there's a ton of evidence that its shitty teams that is the reason for his wins. I think wins are a poor way in general of rating qbs and I think that rg3 has had much better stats playing against significantly harder opponents while meaning more to his team. System is great and all, but he still has to make those plays. Luck hasn't made as many.

Another aspect - the red skins have been in every single game this season save perhaps the pit game. The colts - thanks to io believe 5 pick-sixes - have been completely dismantled a few times. Luck is leading in 4th quarter comebacks because he's looked so bad early on.

And lets also be clear that the system is a direct result of RG3's skill set. RG3 didn't come into a ready built system and succeed because the system made him look better than he is. RG3 succeeded because the system was built around him and what he is capable of doing. It's a brilliant job by the Shannahan's, no doubt, but it's only possible because of RG3.

[Maithanet]

Someone looks foolish here. I think it is the one who can't take a joke.

The only real point behind it is that there is a tiny bit of evidence that the system is part of the success.

I was aware you were making a joke, I just don't see what the point of it is. If you're arguing that Griffin is a "system" quarterback, then you apparently have never seen him play, ever.

As for expanding the playoffs, I can't quite decide if that would be better or worse than expanding to 18 games. I stand by my statement that I would rather the NFL go to a 14 game schedule rather than an 18 game one. Expanding the playoffs would have a similar effect: regular season games have a whole lot less meaning. Terrible idea.

[DanteGabriel]

I have had some harsh words about Shanahan in the past and hiring his kid as his OC smacks of the worst kind of hubris, but I have to give them credit for adapting an offense to their QB's talents rather than trying to make Griffin fit into some pre-existing "system" that the coach tries to build his personal brand with.

[Independent George]

The only real point behind it is that there is a tiny bit of evidence that the system is part of the success.

The system is always a part of the success - and failure. One of the things that I think puts Shannahan above most coaches is that he adapts his offense to suit his players, rather than the other way around. It's the same system, but modified to suit each QB's strengths - Elway, Plummer, Griese, Cutler, and Griffin all operated off of the same foundation, but had completely different offenses (though Elway & Cutler's were almost identical).

It sounds really simple, but hardly anyone ever does it; so many coaches are completely fixated on proving their own genius and insist on making the players bend to their system. See: Martz, Mike and McDaniel, Josh.