UK Politics - Cameron, Farage, Milliband: Snog, Marry, Avoid?

[Zoë Sumra]

As the last thread is on 21 pages. (Thread title © The Last Leg.)

[MinDonner]

They need to put those options on the ballot paper. Though it would probably not have an especially auspicious effect on voter turnout.

[Horza]

One thing I've noticed about UK elections is there's far less datametrics going on in the political media and (what I've seen of the) online debate, especially compared to the World Series of Politics going on across the pond. I'm guessing that's because FPTP + weak major party vote + strong regional voting patterns makes seat calculations much more of a black box, but even then it seems like there's a culture of not really statting out on this stuff.

[Lummel]

They need to put those options on the ballot paper. Though it would probably not have an especially auspicious effect on voter turnout.

But surely only because voters are still unaware of which of the candidates is actually a were-seal

[Pebble thats Stubby]

But surely only because voters are still unaware of which of the candidates is actually a were-seal

that's Farage.

You can see the resemblance whenever he's looking smug and condescending. Normally when he's talking about immigrants spoiling things for everyone else.

[polishgenius]

I was going to say that Farage is clearly a frog in human form but that raises the uncomfortable prospect that he's actually a prince.

[SeanF]

The latest result from each pollster:-

Ashcroft Con +6%,
Ipsos Mori Con +5%,
Survation Con +3%,
BMG Con +3%,
ICM Con +3%,
TNS Con +1%,
Opinium Con +1%
ComRes Tie
Populus Tie
Yougov Lab 1%
Panelbase Lab 2%.

Average Conservative lead 1.7%.

However, a Conservative lead in votes won't necessarily mean a Conservative lead in seats, let alone sufficient seats to form a government.

[The Anti-Targ]

I hear the Scottish National Party are looking to win an interesting number of seats.

Am I right in understanding that UKIP wants all the benefits of being in the EU (free access to hundreds of millions of people for goods and services, as long as they stay east of the English Channel) but they don't want any of the baggage that comes with it? They want to eat the cake, but have someone else get the diabetes and high blood pressure.

But surely the Tories aren't going to be a one term disappointment. That just doesn't happen with right of centre parties. On the other hand, they didn't really win the last election since they didn't have the numbers to govern alone. So this is unusual territory.

[Talleyrand]

I'd definitely go with were-seal over frog for Farage, it comes across quite obviously when the conversation in the debates no longer interests him (not being about immigrants) he just stares ahead with a vacant, slightly disappointed face that makes me want to play Sound of Silence whenever I see it.

And In regards to Hereward reclaiming Edinburgh, take it see what we care. You'll have more fun at a Glasgow stabbing than an Edinburgh wedding.

[SeanF]

I hear the Scottish National Party are looking to win an interesting number of seats.

Am I right in understanding that UKIP wants all the benefits of being in the EU (free access to hundreds of millions of people for goods and services, as long as they stay east of the English Channel) but they don't want any of the baggage that comes with it? They want to eat the cake, but have someone else get the diabetes and high blood pressure.

But surely the Tories aren't going to be a one term disappointment. That just doesn't happen with right of centre parties. On the other hand, they didn't really win the last election since they didn't have the numbers to govern alone. So this is unusual territory.

I think the outcome of the election outcome is touch and go at the moment. Clearly, neither the Conservatives nor Labour will win an overall majority. To form a minority government, the Conservatives need at least 295 seats. Labour has more potential supporters in the Commons, and could form a minority government on 265 or so seats.

The SNP look set to do very well. I never expected to see the day when Labour lost most of its seats in Glasgow.

My understanding is that if UKIP secured a vote in favour of EU withdrawal, then they would join the European Economic Area, pending negotiation of a binding treaty with the EU. I believe their aim is ultimately to have a similar trading relationship with the EU to that which Canada or the US has.

[The Marquis de Leech]

But surely the Tories aren't going to be a one term disappointment. That just doesn't happen with right of centre parties.

Tell that to Ted Heath.

[Zoë Sumra]

New interesting website: what happens when people rate policies rather than parties. Obviously this is self-selecting rather than by invitation, and the Northern Ireland one is useless as only four people have used it (as opposed to multiple thousand in the other three countries), but still.

[The Marquis de Leech]

I think the outcome of the election outcome is touch and go at the moment. Clearly, neither the Conservatives nor Labour will win an overall majority. To form a minority government, the Conservatives need at least 295 seats. Labour has more potential supporters in the Commons, and could form a minority government on 265 or so seats.

If Labour + SNP + Plaid Cymru + SDLP + Greens + Sylvia Hermon + George Galloway >= 323*, the Tories can't govern.

If the aforementioned get less than that, the Tories could govern if they had the support of the Liberal Democrats, UKIP, and the DUP. On the other hand, some of the surviving Liberal Democrats might be less than keen on propping up Cameron again (this makes Sheffield Hallam probably the most important constituency in Britain). If the Liberal Democrats (post-Clegg) even end up abstaining on a confidence motion, the bar for Cameron goes up to about 310.

*Assuming Sinn Fein and the Speaker hold their seats. If Sinn Fein lose Fermanagh and South Tyrone, the key number becomes 324.

[Hereward]

I'd leave Galloway off as he almost never turns up, let alone votes. But they could potentially govern as a minority party if those listed have 323 or more if Labour believe that they would get the blame for immediately bring down the government and forcing another election. They wouldn't be able to get much done, of course.

[SeanF]

If Labour + SNP + Plaid Cymru + SDLP + Greens + Sylvia Hermon + George Galloway >= 323*, the Tories can't govern.

If the aforementioned get less than that, the Tories could govern if they had the support of the Liberal Democrats, UKIP, and the DUP. On the other hand, some of the surviving Liberal Democrats might be less than keen on propping up Cameron again (this makes Sheffield Hallam probably the most important constituency in Britain). If the Liberal Democrats (post-Clegg) even end up abstaining on a confidence motion, the bar for Cameron goes up to about 310.

*Assuming Sinn Fein and the Speaker hold their seats. If Sinn Fein lose Fermanagh and South Tyrone, the key number becomes 324.

It depends if there's a viable alternative.

I don't think that, say, 259 Labour, 55 SNP, 9 Plaid/SDLP etc. could form a viable government, if the Conservatives were close to 300. The situation would similar to Canada in 2006-11 where the non-Conservative parties couldn't form an alternative to a Conservative minority government.

[The Marquis de Leech]

It depends if there's a viable alternative.

I don't think that, say, 259 Labour, 55 SNP, 9 Plaid/SDLP etc. could form a viable government, if the Conservatives were close to 300. The situation would similar to Canada in 2006-11 where the non-Conservative parties couldn't form an alternative to a Conservative minority government.

Canada's a bit different. Harper was effectively daring the three opposition parties to bring him down, with the prospect of an election if they did. Since no-one wanted an early election, no-one brought him down.

Here, everyone apart from the Tories, Lib Dems, UKIP, and the DUP *will* vote to bring down Cameron. And since no-one wants another election, that means Miliband. Miliband then has the fun of daring everyone else to bring *him* down.

[Lummel]

An issue might well be which parties can afford to participate in an early election. Equally picking up on Hereward's point about not being able to do much the fix term parliament act increases the possibility of a weak government limping on for a full term (although any such government could do a lot even if it could only operate within the context of existing enabling acts issuing secondary legislation, and the UK government still owns much of the UK banking sector which gives it a lot of potential scope for intervention in the economy).

[Zoë Sumra]

We just had a lovely election-related problem; the Labour candidate standing against Cameron had a few of his bus rear adverts vandalised. The copy wasn't even contentious! (At least, the printed and fitted copy wasn't!)

[HexMachina]

that's Farage.

You can see the resemblance whenever he's looking smug and condescending. Normally when he's talking about immigrants spoiling things for everyone else.

Is t that the same as saying: "He looks like that all of the time?"

I was going to say that Farage is clearly a frog in human form but that raises the uncomfortable prospect that he's actually a prince.

Does someone want to offer to bestow a kiss upon our possibly amphibious friend person and find out?

[polishgenius]

Does someone want to offer to bestow a kiss upon our possibly amphibious friend person and find out?

I vote we make Piers Morgan do it. He certainly thinks he's a princess and if it doesn't work there's a good chance his face will melt off, so it's win-win.