UK Politics - Cameron, Farage, Milliband: Snog, Marry, Avoid?

[Lummel]

Hahahaha good prank guys but there's no way a serious political party would actually etch their election pledges in stone...

The politics of gimmick. Really it should be a monolith 10 feet high of polished granite, dragged through the streets of London and displayed in the British Museum as an enduring monument to our national tendency to naivety - perhaps displayed next to a looped tape of that question time special from Yorkshire. I mean I was naive enough to think that people from Yorkshire were sensible but there they were asking "how can I trust you" questions of politicians. I apologise for the grossness of quoting Donald Rumsfeld but "stuff happens", or with a tad more decency as Supermac is alleged to have said "events, dear boy, events".

I wonder if somehow we'll move on the politics of values rather than being stuck in this cycle of politicians believing that they have to make specific promises to voters which generally can't or even shouldn't be fulfilled because of friction, events, things happening and then voters feeling disillusioned with politicians believing they can only win trust by making even more specific promises :laugh:

He didn't look as if he were inwardly seething. Must have a decent sense of humour. Can't really see the others reading theirs.

I imagine he's heard worse. Politics is the kind of business were people swear in your face.

[The Anti-Targ]

So, will the new princess affect the election in any meaningful way, or can we just acknowledge it's happened and move on?

Perhaps if the Russian conspiracy theory that the little princess was born 3 days earlier because Kate looked to beautiful after just a few hours of birth and that the baby was just too big to have come out of someone's vag that day gets traction there might be a babygate that distracts people from the election and causes people to forget to vote. What party coming into govt advantages Putin?

[Horza]

The politics of gimmick. Really it should be a monolith 10 feet high of polished granite, dragged through the streets of London and displayed in the British Museum as an enduring monument to our national tendency to naivety - perhaps displayed next to a looped tape of that question time special from Yorkshire. I mean I was naive enough to think that people from Yorkshire were sensible but there they were asking "how can I trust you" questions of politicians. I apologise for the grossness of quoting Donald Rumsfeld but "stuff happens", or with a tad more decency as Supermac is alleged to have said "events, dear boy, events".

I wonder if somehow we'll move on the politics of values rather than being stuck in this cycle of politicians believing that they have to make specific promises to voters which generally can't or even shouldn't be fulfilled because of friction, events, things happening and then voters feeling disillusioned with politicians believing they can only win trust by making even more specific promises :laugh:

We won't, and this event has pushed me into the task of writing a review of Peter Mair's Ruling the Void to explain why.

[Ordos]

On Friday morning until early evening (That's east Indonesia and Singapore time), I'll be marathon watching the election returns. It will be so much fun to watch. Who else will be doing the same? I'm obsessed with politics so I think it's fun.

In case your're wondering, my country had elections last year and we will have local elections in January next year.

[Slick Mongoose]

Yeah, the election returns are always entertaining. Particularly because of the scarcity of constituency-level polling, there's always room for a shock.

[Lummel]

...Kate looked to beautiful...

that should be "too beautiful", ie you want the adverb rather than the conjunction.

We won't, and this event has pushed me into the task of writing a review of Peter Mair's Ruling the Void to explain why.

oh joy, so this is a soap opera that will run and run and run, with little insurgent parties popping up now and again offering even more honesty than ever before :laugh:

Walking through town, a true blue constituency, someone had put up a large "Vote UKIP" billboard on the corner of their property. A couple of days later on the corner of the next house along there was a big poster reading "Please don't" :)

[Hereward]

For those of you who can't face 900 pages of the excellent The English and Their History, Robert Tombs has abridged it into an election-themed article for the New Statesman.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/04/what-does-england-want

[Talleyrand]

So in the last couple days we've had Jim Murphy getting shouted at, Littlejohn saying a Labour govt. is worse than Saville raping his kids and a UKIP candidate threatening to shoot his tory rival whilst bragging about his ancestry.

Tomorrow's got to do something truly spectacular to make sure the pre-election ends with a bang

[SeanF]

There are a load of final polls due today.

The current state of play is:-

Ipsos MORI Con 5%

ICM and ComRes Con 3%

Ashcroft Con 2%

Opinium and TNS Con 1%

Populus, Yougov, BGM Research tied

Survation Lab 1%

Panelbase Lab 2%

Average Con lead 1.2%.

[Pebble thats Stubby]

I still don't know who I will vote for.

I'm in a relatively safe Tory seat. But I get the impression if the Tories don't win, then Its more likely to be UKIP than Labor.

So do I vote Tactically and vote Tory to stop UKIP, Vote labor in the long shot of stopping the Tories and UKIP.

Or do I vote Lib Dem, who I would like as my local MP, but doesn't have a hope in hell.

I suppose I could even vote UKIP :shudder: in the hope that it will weaken the Tories enough that they can't form a government. but there is always a chance of Tory-UKIP coalition, which I believe will be the worst possible outcome of this election.

[DJDonegal]

Me neither, Pebble. And only 22 hours to make up my mind...

I'm in a very safe Tory seat, so which of the other no-hopers do I vote for? Considering voting Class War for a lol.

[mormont]

I have to say, I can't recall an election that was so close, so unpredictable, so potentially unprecedented... and yet so unexciting.

The two main parties are actually philosophically and in policy terms as far apart as they've been for quite a while. Almost no-one has any real idea who will be Prime Minister or if a stable government can even be formed. We may be looking at a minority government and that might actually be a workable solution, despite the fact that our constitution is pretty much geared against it. The SNP's gains might provoke a re-opening of serious constitutional questions, particularly if they are effectively shut out of the political process by the major parties. The Lib Dems might get to be kingmakers again, despite paying a hefty political price for the last time. All three main party leaders could easily be facing internal party schisms, depending on the outcome tomorrow.

But the biggest political story of the moment is that half a dozen people shouted at Eddie Izzard in Glasgow.

It's a weird world.

[Ordos]

I will be paying attention on Friday to Northern Ireland because their 18 seats make for interesting math.

DUP: being largest bloc they would be the second party the major parties will talk to to get them over the line after the Lib Dems if they are adamant at keeping the Nationalists out. (they have stated they are open to negotiations with both major parties)

Sinn Fein: Abstentionists who make it easier to form a majority for both Labour and the Coservatives

Alliance: add to Lib Dem totals

SDLP: add to Labour totals

UUP: add to Conservative totals

Not to mention many other potential oddballs (Independent MPs and other 1 seat parties)

[Lummel]

I have to say, I can't recall an election that was so close, so unpredictable, so potentially unprecedented... and yet so unexciting...

I'm inclined to think because so many parties are offering austerity. Even the fabled 'budget surplus' of which they speak isn't a promise of jam tomorrow, its a promise that there will be a pot of jam in the cupboard that is strictly not for eating, but which we can all think about as we chew on our austerity bread. Hard to get excited over that.

Presumably the party leaders with all their advisers and consultants could have come up with a positive campaign, but on balance decided to go with 'don't let the other lot in' instead.

I will be paying attention on Friday to Northern Ireland because their 18 seats make for interesting math.

DUP: being largest bloc they would be the second party the major parties will talk to to get them over the line after the Lib Dems if they are adamant at keeping the Nationalists out. (they have stated they are open to negotiations with both major parties)...

Yes, although the maths is the interesting part. Tories and Labour together have under first past the post a disproportionately large seat share, the third and smaller parties haven't got the numbers to be decisive in this election. If the SNP come third overall they'll only have around 1/5 to 1/6 of the number of seats of either the Conservatives or Labour. And for the other small parties its even worse. Getting a majority in the Commons will mean either of the big parties having to work with multiple other parties, even before taking into account sickness, abstentions, backbench rebellions, deaths and by-elections...

Even if the likes of the DUP don't play a part in the 8th of May discussions they and their ilk may have quite a role to play in the lifetime of the next parliament.

[Ordos]

Now I'll take a look at the oddballs on mainland Britain:

Speaker: does not cast votes except in ties. That much easier to form a majority.

Greens: Caroline Lucas will vote with Labour most of the time. As they will probably get only 1 seat, there is no point in talking to them for getting over the line.

Respect: George Galloway has a very bad attendance record. He only comes in for speeches and votes on foreign policy. His one seat (if he wins it) will be at the expense of Labour as it gives them less clout and to the benefit of the Conservatives because it makes it that much easier to get over the line.

UKIP is the most interesting case. It's hard to say if they will win only 1 or 2 seats. They would vote most of the time with the Conservatives but ONLY with concessions like an EU referendum.

Then of course I cannot dismiss potential surprises from other micro parties and independents. Cannot say anything on them as I have not looked closer at every single candidate in every constituency.

[The BlackBear]

Well mine like most looks to be changing hands to SNP, unless there are a lot of shy Labour voters around. So at least they'll be left wing :dunno:

[Talleyrand]

Mines is looking like a close thing between Tory, SNP and Lib Dem. Its nice not to be in a safe seat but this is getting closer than I'm comfortable with

[Slick Mongoose]

Bristol West could be a very interesting constituency. The Lib Dems won it with a 10,000 majority but the latest poll showed Labour with a narrow lead over the Greens, and the Tories in 3rd. Every Green activist in the South West is busy campaigning there.

There hasn't been enough polling of "safe" Lib Dem seats in the South West IMO. David Laws in Yeovil, for example, has a huge majority but is incredibly unpopular since the expenses scandal. They have a huge majority in Bath as well but the very popular incumbent has retired, so it could be interesting.

[Horza]

As the resident soothsayer and augur of polls... yas are on your own this time.

[HexMachina]

How very dare you.

Although...sent my postal vote off the other day. Was so very flummoxed by multiple envelopes and ballot papers that I forgot to vote for the Metro council position. I'm not massively bothered by this as I had an vaguer idea there of who I agreed with, but still kind of embarrassing.

I felt kind of bad at first, because the current (Tory) MP for my constituency is a decent enough guy and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see it changing hands.

Yeah, postal votes have far too many bits of paper. Put x into envelope y and seal envelope y and DO NOT TEAR IT DESPITE ITS FLIMSINESS BECAUSE OF THE TEAR LINE and then put envelope y into envelope z...guh