DJDonegal Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Bristol West could be a very interesting constituency. The Lib Dems won it with a 10,000 majority but the latest poll showed Labour with a narrow lead over the Greens, and the Tories in 3rd. Every Green activist in the South West is busy campaigning there. The Yougov Bristol West Nowcast has Labour over Lib Dems rather than Greens. Just wondering where the latest poll you saw was? Even Ashcroft's last one has Lib Dems in 3rd ahead of Tories... Certainly looks like a Lib Dem loss in any case. Also; not a fan of all the analysis all the way down to parties that only have one seat. They're non-entities as far as coalitions are concerned. If you're scrambling for several people who represent only one vote then the coalition is unwieldy, the government will be too unstable (could be torn down by death, defection or anything) and it's probably best to try and go back to the polls. If even that can be managed... The singulars are a factor only in so far as whether they would support a Conservative Queen's Speech over Labour or the other way round, and then we're into vote-by-vote minority government territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slick Mongoose Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Sorry DJ, I'd misremembered the Ashcroft poll. But Greens in 2nd in any case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maltaran Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 So, who wants to guess how long it will take post-election for someone to actually form a government? I'm going to say it will be at least Tuesday, and probably not until next Thursday or even later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Marquis de Leech Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Depends. If Labour get the most seats, Cameron will throw in the towel very quickly. If the Tories get the most seats, but Labour + SNP > Tories + Lib Dems (the likeliest scenario, IMO), Cameron will drag it out. It'll only go to a Commons vote though if the margin between the blocs is 5 or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maltaran Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 My guess is on the assumption of the Tories having more seats - maybe 280-odd to Labour having 265-270, with 25-ish Lib Dems and the SNP in the high 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Talleyrand Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 We've got supporters of most of the Parties in these threads but other the occasional visiting yanks who shall go unnamed are there any UKIPers in who pop in here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinDonner Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Somehow I posted this in the godsdamn Dating thread :lol:This may be the first election I can't be bothered to stay up and watch since 1992 (I couldn't vote in a General till '97 but '92 I gave enough of a shit about to pull an almost-all-nighter). Just can't muster any enthusiasm for doing a late night tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hereward Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 I haven't missed an election night since 1974 and I'm not going to start now. But I can't summon up much enthusiasm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lessthanluke Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 I have actually decided to vote in the end. I am sure Labour will have a 30%+ majority again but oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The BlackBear Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Even if you only go to spoil your ballot I think it's important you turn up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Theda Baratheon Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Think it's pretty much just between Labour and Lib Dem is Cardiff Central tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Anti-Targ Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 What's the record for number of consecutive coalition governments under a FPP voting system? We know that coalition is de rigueur with proportional systems, but they are such an oddity with FPP voting that to be facing the prospect of coalition 2 terms running feels rather unprecedented, in the world. What are the unique elements that makes coalition more likely in the UK? I suppose this time 'round it's more or less SNP. Labour used to have a lock on virtually all Scottish seats and if Scotland was merely a province of England and didn't have it's own national identity we'd probably be looking at almost a straight Labour majority. Then we have the Welsh with their own party. Are we looking at a new paradigm in British elections? Or is this just a prolonged hiccup and things will go back to a Labour / Tory slugfest with one or other party achieving absolute majorities 95% of the time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Marquis de Leech Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 The Labour-Tory duopoly reached its peak vote share in the early 1950s, and has actually been in relative decline since then. Reasons: - The revival of the Liberals as a force. They've come a long way from 6 seats and 2.5% of the vote in 1951.- The emergence of the SNP, its initial spike in 1974, and the much bigger spike now.- Since 1992, the Tories have been hamstrung in their pursuit of a majority by tactical voting and the vagaries of local turnout, which significantly help Labour. This means the Tories probably need to get over 40% of the vote to get a majority. It also means that when Labour is weak (which it is now, due to lingering bitterness), no-one gets a majority. On the other hand, back-to-back UK hung parliaments haven't happened since 1910. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 We've got supporters of most of the Parties in these threads but other the occasional visiting yanks who shall go unnamed are there any UKIPers in who pop in here?We have local elections, too, in my safeish Labour seat (Luton South) and I'll be splitting my votes between Con and UKIP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pebble thats Stubby Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 I won't be staying up, I have to be at work far too early for that lark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ljkeane Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 I won't be staying up either. I can't see there being an outcome I'm particularly pleased about so there doesn't seem much point.I have gotten up early to vote before I go to work though. Hopefully not too many other people have had the same idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horza Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 And meanwhile us antipodean poll junkies might be a little less than productive come Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pebble thats Stubby Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 I won't be staying up either. I can't see there being an outcome I'm particularly pleased about so there doesn't seem much point.I have gotten up early to vote before I go to work though. Hopefully not too many other people have had the same idea. I wish I could have voted on the way to work, but the polls opened 30 mins after I started. Hope your que was not too long. also hoping for nice weather throughout the country today as that effects voter turnout. - if its like it was the last couple of days then I think many will not turn up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masonity Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Only had around 4 people in front of me at 8am. I'm voting early because even though I have the day off today, I'm going out from about 4pm to try to get a few green votes in my area. Even if they can't win, every vote is an argument for a decent proportional representation system. The bigger the discrepancy between vote %age and seats, the more ridiculous our government will appear. Plus we have the party leader standing in my area, so there's a tiny chance she'll pull off a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJDonegal Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Not a soul when I walked into the polling station at 8.05am. 30.1% Tory majority so can't pin too much on that. I'll be up until 7am watching at least. Got tomorrow off work as well. I do kind of wish Exit Polls could just be banned. They've been disastrously accurate for the last two elections and completely spoiled the surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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