US elections: aiding an' Abedin

[Kalbear]

On 10/31/2016 at 5:39 PM, Mudguard said:

Regarding the new emails and Comey, it doesn't surprise me that the Clinton campaign is orchestrating a massive effort to tear down Comey.  And to do that they had no problems immediately resorting to outright lies, such as Clinton's assertion that Comey only sent his letter to Republican members of Congress in order to show his unfair bias.  Predictably, her rabid supporters started immediately spreading this lie before her campaign was eventually forced to admit that she "misspoke."  It's clear that perception is more important than fact for Clinton.

There was a lot of misinformation around at the time. I don't think it really has to do with discrediting Comey that they were the ones 'spreading lies'. A lot of this came from just odd sources. 

That said, the notion that perception is more important than fact is laughable given what Comey released - which was that there might be something in some emails that we don't even have a warrant for. Really? You're crediting that as actually a good thing that he spoke up given that he didn't even have access to the emails at that point?

On 10/31/2016 at 5:39 PM, Mudguard said:

Now the Clinton campaign has gotten tons of surrogates to push the idea that Comey violated the Hatch Act.  I've read a couple critical but reasonable opinions on Comey's actions from two former Attorney Generals, Eric Holder and Alberto Gonzales, who have both worked closely with Comey.  They both think Comey was wrong to release the letter, but neither think Comey had an intent to influence the election.  They make it clear that they believe that Comey is a man of integrity who is doing what he thinks is right and just, but that in this instance, he's making a big mistake.  Without the required intent to influence the election, there is no violation of the Hatch Act.

In the face of this onslaught against Comey, I'm glad to see Obama standing up for Comey's integrity and character.

Well, kinda. Obama doesn't think that he violated the Hatch act. He cannot comment on whether or not he thinks it was a smart thing to do. I don't think he violated the Hatch act - but I also don't think it's as far away as you do, especially given that he chose not to release information in other cases that would have had a similar effect which was based on a LOT more actual evidence.

On 10/31/2016 at 5:39 PM, Mudguard said:

It also doesn't surprise me that many Republican's are jumping on Comey as well.  He's made several big decisions that have infuriated Republicans.  The most recent one was declining to prosecute Clinton.  If Comey really wanted to sink Clinton, all he had to do was to go forward with the prosecution of Clinton as so many Republicans wanted.  Even if Clinton was eventually cleared, that would have immediately ended her bid for the presidency.  Besides the decision to not prosecute Clinton, he refused to certify the NSA's wiretapping program despite pressure from Alberto Gonzales the Bush White House and he contradicted Gonzales' testimony on the US Attorney dismissal scandal.  I think it's ludicrous to assert that he's intentionally trying to influence the election to benefit Trump.

Grassley coming on the side of Clinton is a bit more than being pissed off at Comey - he came out and said that Comey was not being fair to Clinton. That's an example of the bipartisan criticism of Comey, here. You can think it wasn't a partisan act but still consider what he did to be incredibly political. That he refused to put the FBI's name on the release about Russian-based influence because he was afraid it would influence the election kind of speaks to this being entirely a political move and not at all about doing the right thing. 

Also note that the FBI did not have the ability to indict Clinton and that wasn't his decision; he could recommend indictment. However, him doing that would have been the most partisan act of the FBI since Hoover went after MLK given the lack of actual prosecutable evidence. Remember, in order to prove Espionage Act fault you either have to show willful intent to subvert security in order to gain something or you have to show absurdly gross neglect combined with the information getting out. Neither was provable. Neither had any real evidence. If Comey chose to prosecute this it would have been exceedingly bad for the US, period. 

[Swordfish]

3 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

There was a lot of misinformation around at the time. I don't think it really has to do with discrediting Comey that they were the ones 'spreading lies'. A lot of this came from just odd sources. 

That said, the notion that perception is more important than fact is laughable given what Comey released - which was that there might be something in some emails that we don't even have a warrant for. Really? You're crediting that as actually a good thing that he spoke up given that he didn't even have access to the emails at that point?

Well, kinda. Obama doesn't think that he violated the Hatch act. He cannot comment on whether or not he thinks it was a smart thing to do. I don't think he violated the Hatch act - but I also don't think it's as far away as you do, especially given that he chose not to release information in other cases that would have had a similar effect which was based on a LOT more actual evidence.

Grassley coming on the side of Clinton is a bit more than being pissed off at Comey - he came out and said that Comey was not being fair to Clinton. That's an example of the bipartisan criticism of Comey, here. You can think it wasn't a partisan act but still consider what he did to be incredibly political. That he refused to put the FBI's name on the release about Russian-based influence because he was afraid it would influence the election kind of speaks to this being entirely a political move and not at all about doing the right thing. 

Also note that the FBI did not have the ability to indict Clinton and that wasn't his decision; he could recommend indictment. However, him doing that would have been the most partisan act of the FBI since Hoover went after MLK given the lack of actual prosecutable evidence. Remember, in order to prove Espionage Act fault you either have to show willful intent to subvert security in order to gain something or you have to show absurdly gross neglect combined with the information getting out. Neither was provable. Neither had any real evidence. If Comey chose to prosecute this it would have been exceedingly bad for the US, period. 

Pretty sure it was his decision.  Didn't the DOJ basically say they would leave it up to him because of the snafu with Bill and Lynch on the airplane?

That's the whole reason he had to give the press conference.

 

 

[Kalbear]

Also, this is incredibly complicated, but basically Trump figured out how to dodge taxes by doing a stock-for-tax swap that was so bad that it was outlawed. 

[Wrl6199]

1 minute ago, Kalbear said:

Also, this is incredibly complicated, but basically Trump figured out how to dodge taxes by doing a stock-for-tax swap that was so bad that it was outlawed. 

Dang.

[Ariadne23]

12 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Also, this is incredibly complicated, but basically Trump figured out how to dodge taxes by doing a stock-for-tax swap that was so bad that it was outlawed. 

Anyone who has ever had to pay taxes on student loan or other debt forgiveness should be extra pissed off about that. It's not like I can incorporate myself and get my creditors to pick up bullshit stock on paper to do me the favor of helping me skate on my taxes by making it look like trade for value instead of loan forgiveness.

[Martell Spy]

Got my ballot in. I took it to the public library to avoid paying a postage stamp and had to walk across a parking lot, so I suffered a bit to vote for Clinton. Lots of great ballot initiatives here in Washington this time. Also, hopefully the Dems recapture the state Senate.

[Fez]

The New York Times has a somewhat buried article shedding some doubt on the various Trump-Russia stories that came out today. Which does hurt those stories' credibility quite a bit. At the same time though, it also entirely relies on unnamed FBI and FBI-adjacent leaks; same as everything else right now. And one thing that does seem pretty clear is that the FBI is having some serious ongoing institutional failures that make it impossible to know what's true and what isn't. 

Also, the article has this sentence...

Quote

And even the hacking into Democratic emails, F.B.I. and intelligence officials now believe, was aimed at disrupting the presidential election rather than electing Mr. Trump.

Which seems like a distinction without a difference, considering everything Russia has done has been aimed at hurting Clinton, and therefore ,by extension, helped Trump. 

So I remain unconvinced that of anything right now.

[Ordos]

Keith Olbermann insulted Congressman Jason Chaffetz by suggesting that his 15 year old daughter is not his biological daughter. I'd love to hear that cowardly congressman respond to it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f_bc12MVvSg

 

[lokisnow]

Well.  Shit. Looks like Dems will lose pennslyvania and subsequently the election.

because Philadelphia transit workers just went on strike. Thanks for president trump my Union brethren, sure you may think it'll get you great leverage in the short term but your gamble might get you the most anti union president in history, so thanks for being awesome with your game theory. :/

[Altherion]

How does Philadelphia transit workers going on strike lead to the Democrats losing in Pennsylvania? Even if the strike lasts until the election, most people who live in large cities can walk to their polling places.

[lokisnow]

Democrats cannot win the state without maxing out Philadelphia votes. If this impedes voting between now and Election Day in Philadelphia and its suburbs, the red remainder of the state will probably easily elect trump and toomey due to the depressed Philadelphia raw vote totals

[TheKitttenGuard]

1 hour ago, lokisnow said:

Democrats cannot win the state without maxing out Philadelphia votes. If this impedes voting between now and Election Day in Philadelphia and its suburbs, the red remainder of the state will probably easily elect trump and toomey due to the depressed Philadelphia raw vote totals

PA does not have early voting.

There can be a injunction to have them run on election which is being sought.

It is drama no doubt.

[Chaldanya]

As a complete outsider I am now genuinely scared that Trump is going to win.

Can anyone talk me down?

[James Arryn]

Not enjoying the present climate. A lot of polls seem to be tightening and I've always figured Trump has a good 2-3 points in ashamed voters, a la Brexit. Just...this can't happen. Can it? Fez, reassure me!

[The Anti-Targ]

11 hours ago, Notone said:

I think you give Julian Assange way too much credit here. I am not sure what Assange's political leaning is. I assume it's probably leftish. But to me it looks like that wikileaks was for him more a tool to fuel his narcisistic tendencies. The real political activists like the Domscheit-Bergs have left wikileaks a long time ago, over Assange. I agree with you, that Assange has a bone to pick with the US. And more importantly vice versa. If there's really still that trumped (no pun intended) up espionage charge from the US pending over his head, then he is in deep trouble - it's worth noting that Ecuador is electing a new president next year, the current one will probably not run for another turn, and the economic situation and outlook is not particularly great, so if I was Assange I would not bet my life on the new president/goverment being as favorable as the current one. And yes, I also agree with you, that this alliance with Russia is more thing of convenience than political conviction. 

If Assange is using Wikileaks for his own personal political agenda, then it is no longer an objective, unbiased open source of leaked information. Which means it's lost all credibility. Whistleblowers will need to find another outlet the foundation for which is the stroking a person's ego.

[The Anti-Targ]

35 minutes ago, Chaldanya said:

As a complete outsider I am now genuinely scared that Trump is going to win.

Can anyone talk me down?

Can't help you there, I have an ominous feeling about this, as a fellow outsider. The problem is, everyone has an interest beyond mere curiosity in this race, but only 200 million people have a say.

But you could always look at it the same way as Russel Brand

 

[Lordsteve666]

One thing I can't get my head round is how is this developing story of Trump's communication with the Russians not getting more mainstream coverage, but yet they'll latch onto any vague nebulous whispering that might only hint at a mention of Clinton's emails?

i mean the mere suggestion that one candidate is in cahoots with any sort of foreign organisation or government should be big news surely? If the email thing or Trump's treatment of women is big enough to swing polls how is thing new stuff not getting proper attention, it's clearly got potential. At the end of the day it's the suggestion that something is going on that changes people's minds. Most people don't look into the bigger picture but will be swayed by the mere suggestion of something they disagree with. 

[Mexal]

22 minutes ago, Lordsteve666 said:

One thing I can't get my head round is how is this developing story of Trump's communication with the Russians not getting more mainstream coverage, but yet they'll latch onto any vague nebulous whispering that might only hint at a mention of Clinton's emails?

i mean the mere suggestion that one candidate is in cahoots with any sort of foreign organisation or government should be big news surely? If the email thing or Trump's treatment of women is big enough to swing polls how is thing new stuff not getting proper attention, it's clearly got potential. At the end of the day it's the suggestion that something is going on that changes people's minds. Most people don't look into the bigger picture but will be swayed by the mere suggestion of something they disagree with. 

Nah. With Trump and his 100 different things he's done wrong, this is nothing. They need a smoking gun. It's the only thing that will break through the noise. This Alfa/Trump server communication is scary given how hard they're trying to keep it secret but it's nothing that will ever end up nationally talked about because it's all speculation about what's actually being communicated. With the Clinton emails, they've been talking about it for a year and the FBI has had press conferences on it so it's actually real whereas Trump/Russia ties is still a lot of evidence based conjecture.

[Fez]

6 hours ago, lokisnow said:

Well.  Shit. Looks like Dems will lose pennslyvania and subsequently the election.

because Philadelphia transit workers just went on strike. Thanks for president trump my Union brethren, sure you may think it'll get you great leverage in the short term but your gamble might get you the most anti union president in history, so thanks for being awesome with your game theory. :/

I wouldn't be worried about that.

Quote

"If we foresee an agreement will not come to pass, SEPTA intends to enjoin the strike for November 8 to ensure that the strike does not prevent any voters from getting to the polls and exercising their right to vote."

The strike will probably be over anyway, if its not it probably wouldn't dramatically impact precinct access, but that doesn't matter because the strike will be enjoined for election day anyway. Non-story.

 

If you want to be worried, focus on the bigger issue, which is that African American early vote turnout is down considerably from 2012; especially in FL, NC, OH, and VA. At least some of that is due to cutbacks in access to early voting, so hopefully election day turnout makes up for that part; but some of it is because Obama isn't on the ballot anymore.

On the plus side, most polls assumed AA turnout would be down anyway, the FL polls assumed Hispanic turnout would be way up (and it is up by 100% from 2012 in early voting; which hopefully carries through on election day because that state is on the knife's edge as always), the NC polls assumed Clinton support among college-educated graduates would be way up (and polls of early voters suggest it is; the New York Times estimates that Clinton is winning the early vote by 14% despite more registered Republicans voting than registered Democrats and that she'll win the state by 6%), the OH polls have mostly shown Clinton losing all along, and in VA Clinton is so far ahead that the lost support doesn't affect anything (much like reduced turnout in Baltimore doesn't change Maryland from being a safe state).

In other good news, it looks like Nevada is probably locked up for Clinton at this point and she looks to win NE-2 as well. On the bad side, something's happened in Wisconsin; all of a sudden both sides are spending a lot of money on the both Presidential race and the Senate race. And Kaine is campaigning up there now. The presidential race may just be a case of playing it safe and they've got money to burn at this point; but with so many tight senate races going on elsewhere I don't think the main Democratic senate super PAC would drop $2 million unless they felt they needed too. Kaine and and presidential money may also be just to boost turnout to help the senate race.

Anyway, one week out my (not-final) predictions are:

Best Plausible Case

Worst Plausible Case

My Best Guess

 

[Boris the Blade]

15 minutes ago, Mexal said:

Nah. With Trump and his 100 different things he's done wrong, this is nothing. They need a smoking gun. It's the only thing that will break through the noise. This Alfa/Trump server communication is scary given how hard they're trying to keep it secret but it's nothing that will ever end up nationally talked about because it's all speculation about what's actually being communicated. With the Clinton emails, they've been talking about it for a year and the FBI has had press conferences on it so it's actually real whereas Trump/Russia ties is still a lot of evidence based conjecture.

 

39 minutes ago, Lordsteve666 said:

One thing I can't get my head round is how is this developing story of Trump's communication with the Russians not getting more mainstream coverage, but yet they'll latch onto any vague nebulous whispering that might only hint at a mention of Clinton's emails?

i mean the mere suggestion that one candidate is in cahoots with any sort of foreign organisation or government should be big news surely? If the email thing or Trump's treatment of women is big enough to swing polls how is thing new stuff not getting proper attention, it's clearly got potential. At the end of the day it's the suggestion that something is going on that changes people's minds. Most people don't look into the bigger picture but will be swayed by the mere suggestion of something they disagree with. 

Clinton emails. Trump admitting sexual assault. Clinton emails. Trump charity fraud. Clinton emails. Trump calls for nuclear proliferation. Clinton emails. Trump calls for national stop and frisk. Clinton emails. Trump violates trade embargo with Cuba. Clinton emails. Trump sued over Trump U fraud. Clinton emails. Trump bribes DA. Clinton emails. Trump doesnt pay taxes for 20 years. Clinton emails. Trump employs campaign manager involved in illegal corruption with Russia. Clinton emails. Trump calls for ban of an entire religion from entering US. Clinton emails. Trump lied about support for Iraq War over and over in debate. Clinton emails. Trump in court for rape of a minor. Clinton emails. Trump unaware of Russia's Crimea occupation. Clinton emails. Trump unaware of situation in Syria. Clinton emails. Trump penalized for racist housing discrimination. Clinton emails. Trump files for bankrupcy 6 times. Clinton emails. Trump goes 0-3 in debates by showing scant knowledge of world politics. Clinton emails. Trump slams people for being POWs. Clinton emails. Trump calls mexicans rapists. Clinton emails. Trump questions judge's integrity because of parent's heritage. Clinton emails. Trump deletes emails involved in casino scandal. Clinton emails. Trump commits insurance fraud after florida hurricane. Clinton emails. Trump has dozens of assault victims and witnesses come forward with allegations of abuse. Clinton emails. Trump attacks former Ms America for being overweight. Clinton emails. Trump tweets about sex tapes at 3am. Clinton emails. Trump calls for US citizens to be sent to Gitmo. Clinton emails. Trump calls for more extreme forms of torture to be used. Clinton emails. Trump asks why cant we use our nukes if we have them. Clinton emails. Trump calls for offensive bombing attack on sovereign nations because someone gave the middle finger. Clinton emails. Trump calls to kill women and children of suspected terrorists. Clinton emails. Trump says women should be punished for having abortions. Clinton emails. Trump makes fun of disabled people. Clinton emails. Trump calls for end of freedom of the press. Clinton emails. Trump calls global warming a chinese hoax. Clinton emails. Trump praises Putin and Kim Jong Un's strong leadership. Clinton emails. Trump openly admits to not paying his employees during debate. Clinton emails. Trump calls Obama an illegitimate noncitizen hundreds of times over 7 years. Clinton emails. Trump uses campaign donations to enrich his own businesses. Clinton emails. Trump says Ted Cruz involved in JFK assassination unironically citing National Enquirer. Clinton emails. Trump says laziness is an inherent trait in black people. Clinton emails.