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rotting sea cow

Could you have predicted ADWD events?

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Posted (edited)

Motivated by another thread of prevailing theories before ADWD, I would like to ask whether you could have predicted some of most important events in ADWD with the other four books at hands (and whatever material was available).

Yes, most of us read the books after the release of ADWD, so please be honest with yourself.

For example,

- I could have seen (after much discussion) Dany and Jon failing as rulers, other events would have been more difficult to predict. In case of Dany, for example, the raising coalition against her.

- Tyrion reaching Dany, yes, that I could have seen.

- I certainly could not have foreseen Theon's arc in ADWD.

- Despite all the clues were there, I could not have seen Aegon, and please notice, Aegon is not a twist, he was "there" from book 1.

What does it tell us for TWOW?

 

 

 

Edited by rotting sea cow

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I started reading after aDwD was released and the show had started (though the show had no bearing on my starting to read - i didnt know it was a thing until after i’d finished Storm). I binge read them and quite a lot went over my head on a first read (R+L=J...i didnt actually have any thoughts on Jon’s parentage tbh). So much of what happened, no i couldnt have predicted. That said, a short list of FfC and DwD stuff in kind of saw coming, even if not precisely as it happened:

1) Dany facing opposition from Yunkai and other slave cities/states. I think the tone of the books was clear enough at that stage to know nothing was ever as smooth as it seemed

2) jon facing fierce resistance to his run as LC. See above, nothing is ever straigtforward and he had several antagonists already in place to undermine him

3) cersei/Marg rivalry. Only very broadly though, in that i expected Cersei to clash with the Tyrells over the power balance in KL. Never would have guessed the sparrow movement, WoS or imprisonment though.

Errr, actually thats about it. The rest was pretty surprising, though with hindsight there is set up for most of what happens

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9 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Motivated by another thread of prevailing theories before ADWD, I would like to ask whether you could have predicted some of most important events in ADWD with the other four books at hands (and whatever material was available).

This is a very interesting thing. I had the chance to read ADwD weeks before the official publication and remember the point when I had reached the moment of complete unknown territory beyond the sample chapters and reports. 1-2 chapters after that and you cannot really predict the story anymore.

This is very important for any discussion for TWoW. We can, at best, guess at the outcome of the battles and reasonably conclude that crucial new characters - Aegon and Euron - are there to stay and succeed for the time being, but aside from that I feel no prediction is possible. Which is why you don't get much from me on what happens in the North - it is impossible to know without knowing who lives or dies in the battle(s), impossible to know what is going to happen after Jon's assassination and the events triggered by that.

It is similar in KL with the conundrum of the unknown fallout of the double murder, the (possible) arrival of Tyene and Nym, the trials of the queens, and the need to send an army against Aegon.

9 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Yes, most of us read the books after the release of ADWD, so please be honest with yourself.

For example,

- I could have seen (after much discussion) Dany and Jon failing as rulers, other events would have been more difficult to predict. In case of Dany, for example, the raising coalition against her.

Most definitely didn't foresee Jon's assassination or Stannis' apparent failure. I expected ADwD to end with Stannis in control of the North. And with much more on the blasted Others. Instead we got nothing on that front. Never expected Jon to send away Pyp and Grenn.

Also, Bloodraven being the three-eyed crow was a thing before ADwD. Nothing I gave much thought to at first, but after TMK many started to believe there must be something to this. @Ran describes his feelings when he first read the description of Bloodraven in the manuscript, and that was apparently a pretty powerful moment for him. Those blasted appendices took that from me.

I definitely did not foresee Dany giving in to pressure and Dany marrying a Meereenese nobleman. In fact, I never even expected her to fly back into the Dothraki Sea or to start an affair with Daario.

9 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

- Tyrion reaching Dany, yes, that I could have seen.

I was so looking forward to that and hoped we would get that scene - because of its paramount importance - from both POVs. We still might get that one. Never expected such a great focus on Meereen - after reading the appendix (which I always do first when I get a new book) I recall that I had hoped to see more of the Old Blood of Volantis. I had hoped to see one of the characters interacting there.

Never expected Tyrion and Jorah to meet - and still don't like that particular development, although I think there were people theorizing that something along those lines might happen.

9 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

- Despite all the clues were there, I could not have seen Aegon, and please notice, Aegon is not a twist, he was "there" from book 1.

Oh, Aegon a lot of us expected. In fact, we basically knew he was coming due to the readings of early drafts of the first couple of Tyrion chapters. They included the mentioning of Griff and his son, so we also knew that Connington was likely to come. And we had had the House of the Undying, Varys and Illyrio's strange motivations, etc.

However, back then a huge part of the fandom was still completely on-board with the 'Jon Snow is the rightful king' idea (which has since then been at least somewhat toned down) which caused a lot of people basically resenting the very thought that little Aegon might be still out there somewhere. And this is still, in my opinion, part of the reason why many people try to play down the importance of the Aegon plot.

Even if he turns out to be not Rhaegar's son he still basically stole part (or the entire) plot many people thought was reserved for Jon Snow.

It also comes back to me that there were people who correctly predicted that Quentyn Martell would present the Viserys-Arianne marriage contract to Dany.

But I think nobody actually came up with the idea that Aegon would steal Dany's thunder and invade Westeros before she was even starting her journey west. This was unthinkable and really turns the entire narrative on its head. But it is the moment when everything falls into place - or at least should fall into place - since one now understands why the hell Cersei had to fuck up things this fast in AFfC.

I still maintain that the greatest narrative flaw in the AFfC/ADwD split was the decision to not include Tyrion's chapters (and the Lost Lord) in AFfC. Aegon should have been in that book up to the point the decision was made to go west instead of east. But I guess the fact that George was struggling so long and hard with the abandoned Shrouded Lord subplot as well as the decision how to narrate the decision to go west instead of east (originally Tyrion was in that scene) explains why he is missing in AFfC.

I remember that I came pretty close to Varys killing Kevan - I vividly recall a threat of mine what might happen if Varys were to kill Tommen - but since we had no confirmation that Kevan would either accept the offer of becoming Lord Regent - or arrive in time to prevent Tarly and/or Mace from seizing power in the capital - the question of what is going to happen to him was not exactly on anyone's list. But we already knew that Tommen/Myrcella were doomed, so people were wondering how that might happen.

9 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

What does it tell us for TWOW?

That we should not build vast theories build on sand.

I'm reasonably certain of certain broad strokes in TWoW - Aegon taking the Iron Throne, Euron crushing the Redwynes, taking the Arbor, and hooking up with Cersei, Dany taking over all the Dothraki fulfilling the vision of the dosh khaleen bowing down to her, but there are many things I've no clue, Stannis winning in the battle in the village (no idea what's going to happen at Winterfell, though). No idea who is going to live or die there, aside from the fact that Theon is not going to be sacrificed or executed by Stannis (since there seems to be at least a second Theon chapter in the book).

I could see the Vale declaring for Aegon to get Sansa into a more important plot. I think there is a lot of savagery and killing going to happen in the Riverlands. I think Jaime and Brienne will eventually be allowed to leave Catelyn (perhaps after Jaime has helped to retake Riverrun) with both of them ending up with Aegon - either at Storm's End or KL. I think Arya might go with Jaqen (after he has stolen the book from the Citadel vaults) on mission to kill Dany and the dragons, causing Arya to leave the House of Black and White and team up with somebody who she can work with. I hope Aeron survives and hooks up with Samwell and Sarella in Oldtown, spreading the news of the madness of Euron.

But those are all hypothetical scenarios based on certain crucial events I expect or think might happen early on the novel. The news about Aegon hitting the knights assembled for the tourney, triggering a chain reaction possibly involving Sansa spontaneously revealing her true identity, Jaime buying his life with the promise to destroy House Lannister's hold on the Riverlands and publicly revealing the true parentage of his children (which, in turn, is also going to be what might buy him a pardon from Aegon, because this revelation is likely going to be the final nail on the coffin of Myrcella and Tommen), etc.

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11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

This is very important for any discussion for TWoW. We can, at best, guess at the outcome of the battles and reasonably conclude that crucial new characters - Aegon and Euron - are there to stay and succeed for the time being, but aside from that I feel no prediction is possible.

That was actually my idea, to perform a honest exercise  of introspection and see whether I could have predicted ADWD. As you said, it would have been very difficult.

I would argue that even the outcomes of the battles have large uncertainties attached to them. For example, Will the dragonhorn work or not? Or what Bran&BR will do? etc.

Yes, I also think that Stannis, Aegon and Euron will succeed for the time being, but will they find additional obstacles before Dany arrives?

 

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

 

It is similar in KL with the conundrum of the unknown fallout of the double murder, the (possible) arrival of Tyene and Nym, the trials of the queens, and the need to send an army against Aegon.

yeah, KL is in a quite complicated situation.

 

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Most definitely didn't foresee Jon's assassination or Stannis' apparent failure. I expected ADwD to end with Stannis in control of the North. And with much more on the blasted Others. Instead we got nothing on that front. Never expected Jon to send away Pyp and Grenn.

yes, I think I would have expected ADWD to proceed faster, with Stannis in control of the North, Tyrion actually meeting Dany and preparing to sail to Westeros. We see that the later will take quite a while more.

I think  that I could have foreseen that something bad would have happened to Jon. There are some clues in the other books.

 

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I definitely did not foresee Dany giving in to pressure and Dany marrying a Meereenese nobleman. In fact, I never even expected her to fly back into the Dothraki Sea or to start an affair with Daario.

Well, I think that  I could have seen Dany taking control of the Dothraki (this is a book1 development) but I could have expected that it was done by now.

 

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I was so looking forward to that and hoped we would get that scene - because of its paramount importance - from both POVs. We still might get that one. Never expected such a great focus on Meereen - after reading the appendix (which I always do first when I get a new book) I recall that I had hoped to see more of the Old Blood of Volantis. I had hoped to see one of the characters interacting there.

Yes, there is a lot of focus in Essos in ADWD. Certainly I would not have seen that.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Oh, Aegon a lot of us expected. In fact, we basically knew he was coming due to the readings of early drafts of the first couple of Tyrion chapters. They included the mentioning of Griff and his son, so we also knew that Connington was likely to come. And we had had the House of the Undying, Varys and Illyrio's strange motivations, etc.

Ah, well, with sample chapters, yes, I could have seen that. Without them, no, which is - again - passing strange

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

However, back then a huge part of the fandom was still completely on-board with the 'Jon Snow is the rightful king' idea (which has since then been at least somewhat toned down) which caused a lot of people basically resenting the very thought that little Aegon might be still out there somewhere. And this is still, in my opinion, part of the reason why many people try to play down the importance of the Aegon plot.

Even if he turns out to be not Rhaegar's son he still basically stole part (or the entire) plot many people thought was reserved for Jon Snow.

Oh yeah. Aegon being an impostor is still "stealing" Jon's arc as the hidden prince.

Regardless of that, I think that Jon's claim will not have major political consequences but it will be important for Daenerys. She will never accept Aegon, but it will be more internally difficult to deal with Jon.

 

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It also comes back to me that there were people who correctly predicted that Quentyn Martell would present the Viserys-Arianne marriage contract to Dany.

Interesting.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But I think nobody actually came up with the idea that Aegon would steal Dany's thunder and invade Westeros before she was even starting her journey west. This was unthinkable and really turns the entire narrative on its head. But it is the moment when everything falls into place - or at least should fall into place - since one now understands why the hell Cersei had to fuck up things this fast in AFfC.

Indeed. Aegon is also there to steal Dany's arc (as well as Jon's, see above)

Euron, on the other hand, "wants" to break that dynamic,

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I'm reasonably certain of certain broad strokes in TWoW - Aegon taking the Iron Throne, Euron crushing the Redwynes, taking the Arbor, and hooking up with Cersei, Dany taking over all the Dothraki fulfilling the vision of the dosh khaleen bowing down to her, but there are many things I've no clue, Stannis winning in the battle in the village (no idea what's going to happen at Winterfell, though). No idea who is going to live or die there, aside from the fact that Theon is not going to be sacrificed or executed by Stannis (since there seems to be at least a second Theon chapter in the book).

I could see the Vale declaring for Aegon to get Sansa into a more important plot. I think there is a lot of savagery and killing going to happen in the Riverlands. I think Jaime and Brienne will eventually be allowed to leave Catelyn (perhaps after Jaime has helped to retake Riverrun) with both of them ending up with Aegon - either at Storm's End or KL. I think Arya might go with Jaqen (after he has stolen the book from the Citadel vaults) on mission to kill Dany and the dragons, causing Arya to leave the House of Black and White and team up with somebody who she can work with. I hope Aeron survives and hooks up with Samwell and Sarella in Oldtown, spreading the news of the madness of Euron.

But those are all hypothetical scenarios based on certain crucial events I expect or think might happen early on the novel. The news about Aegon hitting the knights assembled for the tourney, triggering a chain reaction possibly involving Sansa spontaneously revealing her true identity, Jaime buying his life with the promise to destroy House Lannister's hold on the Riverlands and publicly revealing the true parentage of his children (which, in turn, is also going to be what might buy him a pardon from Aegon, because this revelation is likely going to be the final nail on the coffin of Myrcella and Tommen), etc.

I will save this post for posteriority. IMHO, you got some things right, but many wrong ;-)

 

 

 

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I read the books consecutively, after Dance had been released, so I didn't really took time to predict things, since I knew Dance was already out. That said, what I did not predict, not while reading all the books, was Aegon being alive. Never in a million years did I see that coming (even with the foreshadowing.....). I think it was actually the most surprising thing out of the entire series for me tbh. I guess it goes to show that we always miss some things, and that it's not that easy to see the whole picture.

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Daenerys mounting and riding her dragon was going to happen.  Book 5 was the right time.  I was expecting that.  The pit of Daznak is one of the best chapters in the story.

Jon getting killed was unexpected but the rebellion against his poor leadership was something that I expected.  I just thought he would run away like he did earlier and look for the Starks.  He was always going to betray the watch and fail at his job.

Bran, well, I knew he would end his journey with the raven.  But I was surprised at who the raven was.

 

 

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On 4/25/2019 at 3:53 PM, HelenaExMachina said:

I started reading after aDwD was released and the show had started (though the show had no bearing on my starting to read - i didnt know it was a thing until after i’d finished Storm). I binge read them and quite a lot went over my head on a first read (R+L=J...i didnt actually have any thoughts on Jon’s parentage tbh). So much of what happened, no i couldnt have predicted. That said, a short list of FfC and DwD stuff in kind of saw coming, even if not precisely as it happened:

Didn't see Jon's true parentage, either. I was given the books by a friend in 2004 and only started to read them in 2005. We were talking a lot about things back then and I asked some questions while reading them, the question of Jon's mother being one of them. Somebody eventually mentioned that the true question was not who Jon's mother was but his father - and that was the moment I figured it out.

Aegon always stuck in my mind since ACoK because he was supposed to be the promised prince and the one with the song of ice and fire. That's something, I think, only a few attentive read forget since it is the first and only time the title of the series is mentioned. And one really wants to understand what the title is about.

On 4/25/2019 at 3:53 PM, HelenaExMachina said:

3) cersei/Marg rivalry. Only very broadly though, in that i expected Cersei to clash with the Tyrells over the power balance in KL. Never would have guessed the sparrow movement, WoS or imprisonment though.

I recall private conversations about us expecting that Kevan would succeed Tywin as Hand. I think I finished ASoS 3-4 months before AFfC came out, so there was so time to have discussions then. I even did something online already back then, but only started to do it in English early on in 2006.

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

That was actually my idea, to perform a honest exercise  of introspection and see whether I could have predicted ADWD. As you said, it would have been very difficult.

Yeah, and it is pretty important to keep that in mind to prevent being carried away by one's own grand theories about 'what this or that character is about' or 'what the story is about'.

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

I would argue that even the outcomes of the battles have large uncertainties attached to them. For example, Will the dragonhorn work or not? Or what Bran&BR will do? etc.

Yeah. I think we can be reasonably certain that Viserion will be claimed by Tyrion (foreshadowing in the sample chapters; the fact that he returned to Meereen rather than being out there, like Rhaegal, who is likely going to be the dragon being affected by Dragonbinder) and that Dragonbinder is going to do something. If Moqorro has taken steps to undermine Euron and Victarion's plans - which must be the reason why he is there in the first place! - then I think our assumptions that the thing will backfire spectacularly are pretty accurate.

And if that's the case then I think the poor guys won't have a chance to sound the horn more than once. Because Rhaegal will immediately react when he hears the first blow. And then Victarion might be living torch.

If it goes that way then chances are pretty high that Tyrion and Brown Ben will actually be the second and third dragonrider, with Brown Ben eventually dying to make space for, perhaps, Aegon, and eventually Jon Snow.

I think I've mentioned that a couple of times already - I see Euron as a potential dragonslayer rather than a rider now that we know he has Valyrian armor. That might isolate him very effectively from dragonfire, so all he needs now is an actual Valyrian steel weapon, which he either has already, too, or should have little difficulties acquiring. But then, I'm not sure any of Dany's dragons will die, at least not before the end. But Euron is the guy I think who might die or nearly die in an attempt to try to slay one of them, perhaps injuring the dragon in the process.

I think Bran will speak through the weirwood on the island, stopping Theon's sacrifice. I think he will form an alliance with Stannis and that he is going to support them during the battle by using animals and perhaps even trees (as per Asha's story about greenseer magic) as weapons against the Boltons and Freys.

Later on there might be differences how to deal with the Others with Bran/Bloodraven and Stannis/Melisandre favoring different strategies. That's where things might then get rougher.

But, honestly, I've no clue how the Winterfell situation is going to resolve itself. Far too many interesting possibilities.

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

Yes, I also think that Stannis, Aegon and Euron will succeed for the time being, but will they find additional obstacles before Dany arrives?

I think the story I lay out for Euron doesn't really need that many obstacles. Defeating the Redwynes, taking the Arbor, being acknowledged as king by the Hightowers and their bannermen, and then reacting to the news of Aegon and Dorne's support for by taking on Sunspear is more than enough for one novel. Even more so if he hooks up with Cersei.

At the Wall I think the main complication is not going to be the aftermath of the assassination but rather the Weeper. The pointless Bolton-Stannis conflict is going to be huge bloodletting and if the Weeper crosses the Bridge of Skulls, destroys the Shadow Tower, and ravages the Gifts and the lands of the clansmen (now conveniently without defenders) they won't be able to properly prepare for the Others.

However, I think the Shireen thing will only when the Wall is about to fall - or perhaps even later - in some kind of last ditch effort to save everyone.

At this point in the story, I think, blood sacrifices will already have been introduced full scale in the North - both the lack of food, the cold of winter, and the hopelessness of the overall situation is going to cause them to rediscover their old practices - even more so when it becomes clear that the old gods - or rather: the one old god that's going to speak them in real life and their dreams - is going to command them to sacrifice people. Shireen's sacrifice will only be the logical and cruel tipping point of that madness.

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

yes, I think I would have expected ADWD to proceed faster, with Stannis in control of the North, Tyrion actually meeting Dany and preparing to sail to Westeros. We see that the later will take quite a while more.

We were all expecting that Tyrion, Quentyn, and Marwyn would help start Dany's journey west. Don't see that journey starting before the final chapters of TWoW. But the crucial guy to set up and insist the journey has to happen now will be Marwyn. He has all the pieces. Tyrion's knowledge about Aegon and Moqorro's interpretation of prophecy is also going to add something, but only the news about the Others should make a journey west a pressing issue. Without that Dany could just consolidate her power in Essos and then crush all resistance in Westeros next spring by throwing literally all the resources of Essos west of the Bones against her enemies there. There has to be an explanation why they are not playing such a long game - and the Others will be that explanation.

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

I think  that I could have foreseen that something bad would have happened to Jon. There are some clues in the other books.

Never thought one of the main heroes would die to be resurrected. And still think that's a stupid plot line.

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

Well, I think that  I could have seen Dany taking control of the Dothraki (this is a book1 development) but I could have expected that it was done by now.

Thought that would turn out to be a red herring/abandoned plot line due to the author's insistence to write only three more books.

I said back then that George could finish everything in two more books after ADwD if ADwD ended with the falling of the Wall. Then TWoW would be the book about the Others pushing south and winter ruling supreme, and ADoS the book where they figure out how to defeat them, do that, and resolve all the other dangling plot lines.

By the way, I don't think anyone ever foresaw that greenseer could literally see (and possibly) influence the past. That came as a huge and pleasant surprise considering the fact that this way we could get a lot of necessary back story.

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

Oh yeah. Aegon being an impostor is still "stealing" Jon's arc as the hidden prince.

Regardless of that, I think that Jon's claim will not have major political consequences but it will be important for Daenerys. She will never accept Aegon, but it will be more internally difficult to deal with Jon.

That, and the fact of the resurrection is likely going to set him on a different track, away from a political story and more towards a magical savior story - more Frodo, less Aragorn.

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

I will save this post for posteriority. IMHO, you got some things right, but many wrong ;-)

Be my guest. I'm looking forward to discussing how very wrong we were when we are reading the book ;-).

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@Lord Varys Your posts are very interesting! I love this topic. I've also been curious to read what older fans talked about and predicted before Feast and/or Dance, and to see which was proven right and wrong.  Winds will be the first book for me where I can experience that, and I can't wait to see what we got right and what we didn't expect at all.

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I have been surprised by all plot developments -- in ADwD and the other books. I'm terrible at making accurate predictions about coming events. Maybe this is what motivates me to keep coming back to this forum: if I can latch onto details from the books or interpret them correctly, I hope I can one day make an accurate prediction.

Now that I've done a few close readings of parts of ADwD, I am seeing a lot of connections to Old Nan's stories. I think GRRM told us to focus more on her stories (and less on prophecies), so this shouldn't surprise me. Light dawns on marble head.

The Night's King and Gendel and Gorne are the stories for which I see the closest match in ADwD developments. I really see the conflict between Jon and Ramsay reflecting the conflict between (Side A) the Lord / King of Winterfell, on the one hand, and (Side B ) the Free Folk kings or the Night's King representing the far north. But GRRM is a little unclear whether Jon or Ramsay represents Side A or Side B. Or whether they both reflect elements of each side, resulting in another of the author's many message about grey areas in life and honor. I suppose Mance being both a man of the Night's Watch and a King Beyond the Wall represents another blurring of the legends as they play out in a new iteration, just as Jon Snow is both a crow and a wildling and Craster is the son of a crow and a wildling, etc. It's also interesting that Jon Snow heard that both Gendel and Gorne died in the ancient tale but Ygritte learned a version of the story where Gorne survived but is trapped in the limbo of the caves between Winterfell and the Wall. This could hint at something about the strange death and (we hope) resurrection of Jon Snow.

So there are probably other plot developments that match Nan's other stories. Or there will be in Winds or Dream. Bran gave us a laundry list of Night Fort tales, for instance, and we have seen bits and pieces of those stories in other plot developments: violation of guest right, eating of human flesh, sacrificing children, etc. I imagine it would be worth our while to have a close reading and discussion of everything we know about Old Nan and everything she has said.

Another source of foreshadowing could be the stories of the fool/knight and the maiden. GRRM puts a lot of emphasis on Florian and Jonquil without telling us much about the story. There seems to be a dragon beheading, but we don't know much more. A Sansa POV tells us the song is sad. The legend of Galladon of Morne and the Maiden of the Seven seems to be a variation on the same story, and that involves a knight seeing the Maiden bathing, followed by the Maiden presenting the knight with a sword.

Could the Night's King story be a variation on the Florian / Jonquil and/or Knight / Maiden story? That would link it back into what's happening between Jon Snow and Ramsay Bolton in the north.

I am also guessing that the little bits of information about Tyrion's reading list over the years will also be revealed as foreshadowing of major plot developments, if we only knew how to interpret those little bits.

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On 4/25/2019 at 2:36 PM, rotting sea cow said:

What does it tell us for TWOW?

My best bet is that the Day foreshadows the Night, and this is the bulk of the foreshadowing.

If so, even if Winds can't be predicted, there will be a multitude of story-lines that can be recognised and mapped back to incidents in the earlier books. This would provide purpose and meaning for all those obscure characters and locations, for the mysteriously parallel characters, and weirdly repeated themes.

Brienne's journey in AFFC is a prime example of this. Purpose and meaning is needed (badly), and it's coming; I feel certain of it.

But it also follows that the predictability (or not) of ADWD is not going to tell us much. The books to come are an entirely different kettle of fish to the ones before. Probably that's why they're taking so long to write.

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I never would have guessed the assassination atempt on Jon. I always saw him as a gary stu, so I never thought that he could be killed, and I still not sure if he really died, and if he did I still belive he will be brought back to life. But it was a shock when a read it.

Aegon was a shock.

The Pink letter came out of nowhere and did surprised me a lot, without the thousands of theories about who wrote it, when I read it I really thought that Stannis was being written off in favor of Jon... then Jon got killed and I was lost.

Brienne turning Jaime to LSH was something I would never guessed either, this still needs confirmation at TWOW but we know she is lying to him.

To Winds of Winter, I see Aegon being a new Robb. Just, raised to rule, young charismatic, will have a early sucess, and then will be set up to fail by someone close to him, Jon Con or Arianne.

I expect LF to fail this time. Is the first time we learn of his plans before they are done. Every time this happens it fails, Eddard trying to cease the keep, Robb trying to take back the Moat. Tyrion trying to rescue Jaime, Cersei trying to frame Marg and so on... it always backfires.

Have no idea what will happen in the north.

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I predicted absolutely nothing : I had read all the 5 books totally ignoring the internet and all the stuff with ASOIAF. I was reading the serie without looking for anticipation (I only anticipated Ned's death from the beginning). For ADWD, I remember that I thought "what the fuck ! what a bad and easy scenario this Young Griff/Aegon Targaryen !". I was deceived.

After that, I discovered differents forum, and theories about fAegon (what a relief !), and R+L=J, and so on... I had missed quite all the stuff. Only now I'm playing the game of predictions, and I have already changed my mind about many of them.

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Posted (edited)

I wasn't into making predictions before A Dance with Dragons.  I responded to theories from other fans but that was it.  I was hoping for events to take place and a few did but most did not.  

On 4/25/2019 at 9:36 AM, rotting sea cow said:

For example,

- I could have seen (after much discussion) Dany and Jon failing as rulers, other events would have been more difficult to predict. In case of Dany, for example, the raising coalition against her.

- Tyrion reaching Dany, yes, that I could have seen.

- I certainly could not have foreseen Theon's arc in ADWD.

- Despite all the clues were there, I could not have seen Aegon, and please notice, Aegon is not a twist, he was "there" from book 1.

What does it tell us for TWOW?

Daenerys has not and hopefully will not fail as a ruler.  Slavery will be back in force if she fails.  Nobody wants to see that.  Meereen is the laboratory in preparation for rebuilding what's left of civilization after the long night.  Jon has failed and this is in keeping with Robb, Robert, and Rhaegar.  Their hearts were not in the right place and that kept them from becoming dedicated to their jobs.  Robb would have been better off, and hundreds of thousands of innocents would as well, if he had stayed in the north.  Robert should have never become king and never gotten involved in any plot to usurp the Targaryens.  The realm would have been better off.  Rhaegar should have been content to play his lute instead of rescuing "Lyanna" and hiding her from RB.  The coalition is predictable because slavery is not going to go away without a lot of resistance from the evil people who profit from it.  The resistance to the emancipation of the slaves was already there in A Storm of Swords.  

Aegon surprised me.  But maybe he's a Blackfyre and the real one died during the sack.  

Expect  a lot of surprises in the next book.

Edited by Great Oshiro

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On 4/28/2019 at 7:19 AM, Great Oshiro said:

 

Daenerys has not and hopefully will not fail as a ruler.  Slavery will be back in force if she fails.  Nobody wants to see that. 

Dany already failed as a ruler, she tried hard but found herself giving more an more ground to the slavers. Without Drogon, she would have ended dead or inconsequential.

But Dany doesn't need to be good at ruling because she is a revolutionary. I'm pretty sure she will end slavery across big sways of Essos. The slavers of Yunkaii and Mereen will be crushed and Volantis will follow. After that, the Red Priests and an empowered freed-men class will be able to rule, maybe with Dothraki support.

 

 

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On 4/26/2019 at 10:14 PM, Arthur Peres said:

The Pink letter came out of nowhere and did surprised me a lot, without the thousands of theories about who wrote it, when I read it I really thought that Stannis was being written off in favor of Jon... then Jon got killed and I was lost.

Well, we cannot predict to the last detail. Sure, I had to read three times the Pink Letter but there wasn't much foreshadowing or construction before ADWD.

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On 4/26/2019 at 9:59 PM, Springwatch said:

Brienne's journey in AFFC is a prime example of this. Purpose and meaning is needed (badly), and it's coming; I feel certain of it.

Indeed

On 4/26/2019 at 9:59 PM, Springwatch said:

But it also follows that the predictability (or not) of ADWD is not going to tell us much. The books to come are an entirely different kettle of fish to the ones before. Probably that's why they're taking so long to write.

This is also true. A big restructuring of the story is happening.

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On 4/26/2019 at 7:26 PM, Lord Varys said:


But, honestly, I've no clue how the Winterfell situation is going to resolve itself. Far too many interesting possibilities.

Same with King's Landing

On 4/26/2019 at 7:26 PM, Lord Varys said:

At the Wall I think the main complication is not going to be the aftermath of the assassination but rather the Weeper. The pointless Bolton-Stannis conflict is going to be huge bloodletting and if the Weeper crosses the Bridge of Skulls, destroys the Shadow Tower, and ravages the Gifts and the lands of the clansmen (now conveniently without defenders) they won't be able to properly prepare for the Others.

The Wall is another thing that I'm not sure how will develop. Will the Others ever try to attack it? After Jon's assassination, the Wall should be at its weakest. How will the Wall fall? I got no clue

On 4/26/2019 at 7:26 PM, Lord Varys said:

We were all expecting that Tyrion, Quentyn, and Marwyn would help start Dany's journey west. Don't see that journey starting before the final chapters of TWoW. But the crucial guy to set up and insist the journey has to happen now will be Marwyn. He has all the pieces. Tyrion's knowledge about Aegon and Moqorro's interpretation of prophecy is also going to add something, but only the news about the Others should make a journey west a pressing issue. Without that Dany could just consolidate her power in Essos and then crush all resistance in Westeros next spring by throwing literally all the resources of Essos west of the Bones against her enemies there. There has to be an explanation why they are not playing such a long game - and the Others will be that explanation.

I think the news of Aegon is what it will make Dany to go west. The question is whether Dany will meet these guys soon or later in TWOW. Also each of them has a different agenda.  I also don't see Dany sailing before the end of TWOW.

 

On 4/26/2019 at 7:26 PM, Lord Varys said:

Never thought one of the main heroes would die to be resurrected. And still think that's a stupid plot line.

I think it has a point. The long construction with Melisandre, Thoros, Beric and LSH has a purpose now. It is also a literary comment on Gandalf's return in LOTR (and why not jesuschrist)

On 4/26/2019 at 7:26 PM, Lord Varys said:

That, and the fact of the resurrection is likely going to set him on a different track, away from a political story and more towards a magical savior story - more Frodo, less Aragorn.

Good point, but I think it will take a while before Jon reaches himself for that.

On 4/26/2019 at 7:26 PM, Lord Varys said:

Be my guest. I'm looking forward to discussing how very wrong we were when we are reading the book ;-).

Hopefully, when the dismal show season is over, GRRM finally announces TWOW.

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The broad strokes of the upcoming events yes, I feel quite confident I can see them coming, after many many rereads and discussions here. There is after all considerable set up. Beyong that, the details and what comes after, no. There are so many moving parts, enough that Martin can plausibly do anything. 

Which is probably the reason the damn thing is taking so long. There should be three or four versions of it by now which Martin is trying to pick from. 

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On 4/25/2019 at 6:36 AM, rotting sea cow said:

Motivated by another thread of prevailing theories before ADWD, I would like to ask whether you could have predicted some of most important events in ADWD with the other four books at hands (and whatever material was available).

Yes, most of us read the books after the release of ADWD, so please be honest with yourself.

For example,

- I could have seen (after much discussion) Dany and Jon failing as rulers, other events would have been more difficult to predict. In case of Dany, for example, the raising coalition against her.

- Tyrion reaching Dany, yes, that I could have seen.

- I certainly could not have foreseen Theon's arc in ADWD.

- Despite all the clues were there, I could not have seen Aegon, and please notice, Aegon is not a twist, he was "there" from book 1.

What does it tell us for TWOW?

 

 

 

I read the first three books about one  year before A Feast for Crows was released.  It was a wonderful reading experience and I was shocked by some of the things I read especially Ned's death.  I remember that it was kind of thrilling to realize that I was reading a story in which no character was safe from the author.  I don't remember having any theories of my own as I waited for Feast to be published.  The books were so full of surprises that I don't recall feeling that I could speculate about what might come next, although I do remember thinking that Dorian Martell  was probably going to emerge as major player in the Game of Thrones.  Still waiting for that one.  :)

Before Feast was released I re-read the first three books and then thoroughly enjoyed the new book.  Again, it was so full of twists and surprises that I can't imagine that I predicted much of it.  I spent the next few years thinking about it and savoring the books I had.  In the months leading up to the release of A Dance With Dragons I re-read the books again and discovered this forum.  I was surprised at how much speculation and generating of theories there is out there but most of it struck me as highly unlikely.  After Dance was released there was a great deal of discussion here and I really appreciated reading other takes on events and observation of details I missed when I read the books, but I still feel that trying to predict what comes next is a bit futile.  I would even go so far as to say that much of what we will read in The Winds of Winter hadn't even thought up by GRRM when Dance was released. 

But people love to speculate, even to the point of it becoming something of an industry with youtube channels, websites and Patreon accounts.  I'm content to wait patiently for the next couple of books but reading the conjecture of others and responding to some of it helps while away the time and it will be interesting to see if some of these self appointed experts hit any nails on the head.  (Although unlikely in my opinion.)

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