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Tywin Manderly

UK Politics: Who Pays the Andyman?

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3 hours ago, Which Tyler said:

Lin Dem also much more likely to kick out Raab than Labour where you are. All the tactical voting sites seem to agree on that

That’s very true, Labour haven’t got a chance here, that said even if they did I wouldn’t vote for them in their current form.

3 hours ago, williamjm said:

I think even if the Tories do end up winning a majority then it would be beneficial if we could get rid of some of the most hardline Brexit MPs like Raab. Plus, it would be hilarious if he lost his seat.

Overall I’d say I was a very centrist,pro remain Tory, I can’t vote for them in their current guise and am against a Labour win in their current guise too.

However I think we can all agree no matter what our political leanings that Raab isn’t the type of person any of us could vote for, I couldn’t see him being very gracious in defeat either, only a few days to go!.

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BMG, which did have the Tory lead down to 6% in its last poll has now got it back to 9. So pretty much everyone, saving Opinium and DeltaPoll, is clustering at about 8-10% lead. 

Westminster Voting Intention:

CON: 41% (+2)

LAB: 32% (-1)

LDM: 14% (+1)

BXP: 4% (=)

Via @BMGResearch, 4-6 Dec. Changes w/ 27-29 Nov.

Needless to say Bad. And of course if you are not well disposed to the UK, Sad.

It now looks, unless there is a systematic polling error against Labour, as there was last time (but not in nearly every other election - where the Tories tend to get underestimated), the Tories will have a majority to not-get-Brexit-done, reduce the UK to second-class status in Europe and put a puncture in the economy which will last generations. The polls are also different to last time. In 2017 they did on average show May with an 8-point lead over Corbyn in the final week (which is not very different to now) but the results were more spread out, with Survation giving the Tories a mere 1% lead (they got 2.5% in the end). So it looks worse this time. Much worse.

I think if a Blairite had been in charge this election would be very different. Corbyn is the cause of this rout and the silver lining of the disaster will hopefully be an end to his pathetic cult. 

Prediction:

I do have a prediction though, which is totally unscientific and is nothing but a gut feel. I am not predicting a specific result, i.e. Tory majority, I just think Labour will get above 32/33. I think part of the reason is because I assume so much of the Lib Dem vote must be Brexit related, and it is hard to imagine Brexit-motivated Lib Dems not breaking more for Labour on the day given the obvious futility of voting for Jo Swinson in most seats. I don't think they'll get 14% for instance, and I think most of that will go to Labour.

Edited by Chaircat Meow

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I think we’ll see a big squeeze on the vote of whichever party is in third in the particular seat, even in non-marginal constituencies 

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2 hours ago, Chaircat Meow said:

BMG, which did have the Tory lead down to 6% in its last poll has now got it back to 9. So pretty much everyone, saving Opinium and DeltaPoll, is clustering at about 8-10% lead. 

Westminster Voting Intention:

CON: 41% (+2)

LAB: 32% (-1)

LDM: 14% (+1)

BXP: 4% (=)

Via @BMGResearch, 4-6 Dec. Changes w/ 27-29 Nov.

Needless to say Bad. And of course if you are not well disposed to the UK, Sad.

It now looks, unless there is a systematic polling error against Labour, as there was last time (but not in nearly every other election - where the Tories tend to get underestimated), the Tories will have a majority to not-get-Brexit-done, reduce the UK to second-class status in Europe and put a puncture in the economy which will last generations. The polls are also different to last time. In 2017 they did on average show May with an 8-point lead over Corbyn in the final week (which is not very different to now) but the results were more spread out, with Survation giving the Tories a mere 1% lead (they got 2.5% in the end). So it looks worse this time. Much worse.

I think if a Blairite had been in charge this election would be very different. Corbyn is the cause of this rout and the silver lining of the disaster will hopefully be an end to his pathetic cult. 

Prediction:

I do have a prediction though, which is totally unscientific and is nothing but a gut feel. I am not predicting a specific result, i.e. Tory majority, I just think Labour will get above 32/33. I think part of the reason is because I assume so much of the Lib Dem vote must be Brexit related, and it is hard to imagine Brexit-motivated Lib Dems not breaking more for Labour on the day given the obvious futility of voting for Jo Swinson in most seats. I don't think they'll get 14% for instance, and I think most of that will go to Labour.

I don't know why you want Labour to do well.

I expect the Conservatives will win 350 or so this time.

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4 minutes ago, SeanF said:

I don't know why you want Labour to do well.

I expect the Conservatives will win 350 or so this time.

Because only Labour doing well can stop the Great Charlatan and his not-conservatives getting a majority. Obviously.

 

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4 hours ago, Chaircat Meow said:

BMG, which did have the Tory lead down to 6% in its last poll has now got it back to 9. So pretty much everyone, saving Opinium and DeltaPoll, is clustering at about 8-10% lead. 

Westminster Voting Intention:

CON: 41% (+2)

LAB: 32% (-1)

LD: 14% (+1)

BXP: 4% (=)

Via @BMGResearch, 4-6 Dec. Changes w/ 27-29 Nov.

 

Totally theoretical and therefore useless speculative MMP result (with a 4% threshold):

CON: 41% (+2) = 266 seats

LAB: 32% (-1) = 208 seats

LD: 14% (+1) = 91 Seats

BXP: 4% (=) = 26 Seats

Assume DUP, PC, SNP all will be below 4% nationally, but will win electorate seats and may potentially get a handful of additional seats Electoral seats will be chopped in half, so:

Assuming SNP holds its vote from 2017 35 seats becomes 17 electorate seats, 3% national vote = 19 seats (19.5 actually), so it seats all of its electorate MPs and2 or 3 depending on how wasted votes shake out.

DUP gets 5 electorate seats. Doesn't get enough national % for extras, in fact gets creates a potential overhang situation because they get more seats than their ~1% vote share would allow.

PC probably wins 2 seats and another possible overhang.

Sin Fein gets 3 seats and also a potential overhang.

But with all those parties that adds up to 620 seats, so no overhang. Excluding SF the Remain/people's vote vs Get Brexit done is 

Remain/People's vote (Lab/Lib Dem/SNP/PC(?)): 320 seats.

Get Brexit done (Con/BXP/DUP): 297 seats

Assuming no independent candidates or other tiny parties win electorate seats, the remaining 30 seats will probably shake out to be: Cons 14; Lab 11; LD 4; BXP 1.

So a final Brexit split:

Remain/PV = 320+11+4 = 335

Brexit now! = 297+14+1 = 312

Remain majority, but would that combination of parties be actually able to form a govt? LD could take its 94 seats and support a Con govt maybe on the condition that there be a people's vote with remain as an option. But with the stark result that an MMP election would deliver, i.e. a pretty clear majority for remain / people's vote would the Cons actually agree to a people's vote coalition knowing that its highly likely a people's vote would deliver remain? It would be almost as disastrous (for the Con PM / Con party) to agree to a people's vote incl remain as agreeing to the original Brexit referendum.

Arguments for / against LD being the sole coalition partner for the Cons so that BXP and DUP are sent to the opposition benches?

Edited by The Anti-Targ

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It just keeps getting worse and worse.

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 45% (+3)

LAB: 31% (-2)

LDEM: 11 (-)

BREX: 4% (+1)

GRN: 2% (-2) via

@Survation, 05 - 07 Dec Chgs. w/ 30 Nov

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5 hours ago, Chaircat Meow said:

I think if a Blairite had been in charge this election would be very different. Corbyn is the cause of this rout and the silver lining of the disaster will hopefully be an end to his pathetic cult. 

While Corbyn is not without fault - especially in his handling of the media - the seat projections suggest that the root cause of this is that Labour Leavers have departed en masse. Corbyn's tried (seemingly unsuccessfully) to stop this.

A Blairite leader would have thrown the Leavers under the bus, and gone after Tory Remainers. Basically turning Labour into the US Democrats. Would that have worked? Who knows... but Tory Remainers have proven exceptionally loyal, and Labour becoming the party of Remain results in a self-gerrymander under First Past the Post. That's also not factoring in what the Blairites would have done to Labour membership numbers.

(Taking a broader view... the democratic world ain't favourable to Social Democracy at the moment. It speaks volumes that Corbyn's Labour was actually a rare bright spot, in comparison with some of the continental European parties).

Edited by The Marquis de Leech

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So, what we have, apparently, is left-leavers voting solely on Brexit and right-remainers sticking to their party over Brexit in sufficient numbers respectively to deliver Brexit and a Conservative govt. The left-leavers figuring a conservative govt is short term pain for long term Brexit gain. Right-remainers have the same view only with the short vs long term effect being switched. And I'm guessing the right-remainers have it correct.  Brexit is the short term pain, securing at least 5 more years of Tory policy is the long term gain. Left-leavers are shooting themselves in the foot.

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4 hours ago, The Marquis de Leech said:

While Corbyn is not without fault - especially in his handling of the media - the seat projections suggest that the root cause of this is that Labour Leavers have departed en masse. Corbyn's tried (seemingly unsuccessfully) to stop this.

A Blairite leader would have thrown the Leavers under the bus, and gone after Tory Remainers. Basically turning Labour into the US Democrats. Would that have worked? Who knows... but Tory Remainers have proven exceptionally loyal, and Labour becoming the party of Remain results in a self-gerrymander under First Past the Post. That's also not factoring in what the Blairites would have done to Labour membership numbers.

(Taking a broader view... the democratic world ain't favourable to Social Democracy at the moment. It speaks volumes that Corbyn's Labour was actually a rare bright spot, in comparison with some of the continental European parties).

I'd suggest that other leaders would have managed to avoid the Brexit issue altogether by getting off the fence and getting the message across how totally catastrophic it would be. 

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5 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

So, what we have, apparently, is left-leavers voting solely on Brexit and right-remainers sticking to their party over Brexit in sufficient numbers respectively to deliver Brexit and a Conservative govt. The left-leavers figuring a conservative govt is short term pain for long term Brexit gain. Right-remainers have the same view only with the short vs long term effect being switched. And I'm guessing the right-remainers have it correct.  Brexit is the short term pain, securing at least 5 more years of Tory policy is the long term gain. Left-leavers are shooting themselves in the foot.

I'm not quite sure how this thought process works, given that 5 years of tory policy would be for 5 years; whereas Brexit would be for life; and at least 30 years before we're back on an even keel economically with a massive lurch to the right, and the breakup of the union thrown in for giggles.

 

Mind you, of the tory's successfully asset strip the NHS in their 5 years, then that could well be for life as well.

A much shorter life.

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18 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

I'm not quite sure how this thought process works, given that 5 years of tory policy would be for 5 years; whereas Brexit would be for life; and at least 30 years before we're back on an even keel economically with a massive lurch to the right, and the breakup of the union thrown in for giggles.

 

Mind you, of the tory's successfully asset strip the NHS in their 5 years, then that could well be for life as well.

A much shorter life.

Yeah, I mean 5 years to bring in policies, like selling off the NHS, that will endure for as long as Brexit's effect and be all but impossible to take back. And maybe some people are still hoping that the doom around Brexit will be a bit like Y2K. "Surely it can't be as bad as they say, because Boris and Jacob surely don't want that for Britain."

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Quote

 

I think if a Blairite had been in charge this election would be very different.

 

Yes. The Conservatives would be heading for a 100+ seat majority, probably with a majority for a hard Brexit as well.

Blairisim had its day and died in failure (having killed an awful lot of Iraqis along the way). Why people keep wanting to bring it back and think it would have handled the situation any better now is baffling. That ship sailed with the Edstone and the bacon sandwich in 2015 (not that Miliband was a particularly hardcore Blairite anyway), not to mention that at least part of the reason for Blair's success was the lack of direction of the Tories in that time period. With the Tories now embracing neo-Thatcherism (Thatcher but turned all the way to 11), that's not the case now.

Quote

I'd suggest that other leaders would have managed to avoid the Brexit issue altogether by getting off the fence and getting the message across how totally catastrophic it would be. 

That was what Swinson was backing on and that exploded in her face.

There's also the fact that virtually every single diplomatic, trade and economic expert in and out of Britain has been saying for five years solid that Brexit is a catastrophic idea and people have ignored them. Brexit is now a cult, a religion, and logic, evidence and rationality has no place in that discussion now. A significant number of Brexit voters would now vote for Brexit if it meant them dying, because they'd rather do that than be wrong.

I suspect one of Johnson's winning arguments is "Get Brexit done," which is appealing to many former Remainers who now don't care any more, would probably still vote Remain in a Ref3 but for whom the idea of getting the whole thing done, dealing with whatever economic downturn follows and then never hearing the word "Brexit" again is very appealing. The fact that Brexit will continue to be the dominant political issue, especially in foreign affairs, for the next 10-30 years is lost on them.

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9 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Yes. The Conservatives would be heading for a 100+ seat majority, probably with a majority for a hard Brexit as well.

Blairisim had its day and died in failure (having killed an awful lot of Iraqis along the way). Why people keep wanting to bring it back and think it would have handled the situation any better now is baffling. That ship sailed with the Edstone and the bacon sandwich in 2015 (not that Miliband was a particularly hardcore Blairite anyway), not to mention that at least part of the reason for Blair's success was the lack of direction of the Tories in that time period. With the Tories now embracing neo-Thatcherism (Thatcher but turned all the way to 11), that's not the case now.

 

I assume they meant Blair before he was tarnished, I don't care what people though about Blair, at least he knew how to win.  I'd rather have the most watered down, leftish, sort of, policy ever, than the absolute shambles we are walking into.  

Blair V Johnson would be a walkover of historic proportions. 

Edited by BigFatCoward

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10 hours ago, The Marquis de Leech said:

While Corbyn is not without fault - especially in his handling of the media - the seat projections suggest that the root cause of this is that Labour Leavers have departed en masse. Corbyn's tried (seemingly unsuccessfully) to stop this.

A Blairite leader would have thrown the Leavers under the bus, and gone after Tory Remainers. Basically turning Labour into the US Democrats. Would that have worked? Who knows... but Tory Remainers have proven exceptionally loyal, and Labour becoming the party of Remain results in a self-gerrymander under First Past the Post. That's also not factoring in what the Blairites would have done to Labour membership numbers.

(Taking a broader view... the democratic world ain't favourable to Social Democracy at the moment. It speaks volumes that Corbyn's Labour was actually a rare bright spot, in comparison with some of the continental European parties).

Yes, I'd expect very little swing to the Conservatives from Labour in strongly Remain (55%+ seats).  And, some of those seats, especially in the London stockbroker Belt, will show big swings from the Conservatives to the Lib Dems.  The Lib Dems look seat to gain Richmond Park, Guildford, St. Alban's, perhaps Winchester, perhaps Wimbledon, and are challenging very hard in Esher & Walton. 

OTOH, there will probably be very big swings to the Conservatives in strongly Leave Labour-held seats.  Some of these seats will have last voted Conservative in the 1920's and 1930's.

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1 hour ago, Jen'ari said:

So what are people’s honest predictions for how it will go now?.

I think anyone trying to predict an outcome with any degree of confidence is a mug, but fuck it, I feel like a mug half the time anyway, so I'll play.

I suspect we'll see a small but workable Tory majority, in the region of twenty seats or so. I also suspect that this will be just enough support for Johnson to get his deal passed, and that we'll be out of the EU early next year. I am not happy about this, and very earnestly hope I'm wrong. I think an outright Labour majority is vanishingly unlikely, and a hung Parliament leading to a minority Labour government is not totally out of the realm of possibility, but I definitely wouldn't put money on it.

That said. within my own constituency I think there's a pretty decent chance of taking the seat out of Tory hands for the first time since 1835. This is due to a confluence of local factors: changing demographics from rural to urban residency; the incumbent MP standing down and being replaced by an unknown candidate; and a well-known, popular, local independent challenger.

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I think we are all fucked. Only positive is I think Johnson fucks up so badly labour win at least the next 2 elections handily. 

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Boris snatches phone from man trying to show him photo of 4 year old child forced to lie on hospital floor because of insufficient beds. What an absolute cunt. 

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