UK Politics: Who Pays the Andyman?

[BigFatCoward]

55 minutes ago, SeanF said:

The first two eve of polls are from Opinium, 45/33/12 and Qriously 43/30/13.

If that is true its a f'ing disaster.  Much as I admire Corbyn, his inability to win against the absolute worst party in the history of UK politics, or indeed come close means he needs to fall on his sword the second the results are in and the party need to take a long hard look at themselves.  The incoming disaster is as much their fault for failing to realise that a principled loser is still a loser.

[Heartofice]

I'm guessing it will probably be a bit closer than the polls suggest, but only a little bit. Boris has been ahead in every single poll during the election, that wasn't the case for May or Cameron. Whatever you say about Boris, and I'm sure there is a lot to say on here, he has no doubt done a very good job in turning the Tories around. Were there an election before he was in charge I think they would have been obliterated.

It does really show what a terrible opposition Corbyn has proved to provide this country. Most of the dirt thrown at him should easily be batted away, but curiously it isn't, he does very badly at managing the bad press. If he'd had a solid position on Brexit then I think it would be VERY close. But he has really produced the most nonsensical direction for his party I can imagine. 

Its also curious how poorly Swinson has done. Her STOP BREXIT campaign should have worked far better, but she seemed to have had the wind fall out of her sails, maybe when tactics became clearer and some of her interviews didn't go so well.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

44 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

Whatever you say about Boris, and I'm sure there is a lot to say on here, he has no doubt done a very good job in turning the Tories around. 

I think it has less to do with Boris specifically and more to do with the death of expertise on the right combined with nativism.

[Pebble thats Stubby]

Where I am the Torys are expected to get about 60-66% of the votes.    we might have stood a chance if Brexit was still standing as in October they where expected to take 20-30% of the votes but have all shifted to Tory.

 

every tactical voting sites says I should vote labour and they might get about 25%.  Labour have not done any campaigning in my area for years.

Lib Debs are expected to get 12-15%    last general election they didn't even stand here.   but in the last 2 years our local candidate has been campaigning solidly and made vast gains in the locals only not getting a council seat by a handful of votes (from nothing)  The same person have been campaigning this time to stand as an MP.  realistically he doesn't stand a chance, yet part of me feels he might just get more than labour because of his efforts.  I just don't know who to vote for.

Also this time and probably the first time we can vote for the green party.  or an alternative fringe party (social democrats) who I'd guess are racist in line with the BNP (I don't actually know anything about them, other than they want No deal brexit  )

[SeanF]

BMG have Con 41/Lab 32/ Lib Dem 14.

So far, the range across four polls is a Conservative lead of 9 to 13%.  

30 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I think it has less to do with Boris specifically and more to do with the death of expertise on the right combined with nativism.

Broadly, you have about 47% who are committed to Brexit, and 50% who are opposed.  But, Boris has united most of the former behind the Conservatives, while the latter are split across several parties.  And, Remain Conservatives also seem more willing to stick with their party than Labour Leavers are.

[Werthead]

Quote

Its also curious how poorly Swinson has done. Her STOP BREXIT campaign should have worked far better, but she seemed to have had the wind fall out of her sails, maybe when tactics became clearer and some of her interviews didn't go so well.

I think the key to Swinson's failure is her decision to switch from backing another referendum to flat out revoke. I know several people who refused to vote LibDem after that happened. Swinson has also failed to articulate signature LibDem policies outside of anything related to Brexit, whilst both the Tories and Labour have done a reasonable job of pivoting to other issues as required. The LibDem's lack of flexibility in this election and their failure to offer Leavers any reason to vote for them (as some might, with a third referendum on the cards) has cost them dear, barring a shock result tomorrow.

[Heartofice]

14 minutes ago, Werthead said:

I think the key to Swinson's failure is her decision to switch from backing another referendum to flat out revoke. I know several people who refused to vote LibDem after that happened. Swinson has also failed to articulate signature LibDem policies outside of anything related to Brexit, whilst both the Tories and Labour have done a reasonable job of pivoting to other issues as required. The LibDem's lack of flexibility in this election and their failure to offer Leavers any reason to vote for them (as some might, with a third referendum on the cards) has cost them dear, barring a shock result tomorrow.

I dunno, I actually respect the Lib Dems for having an honest position on Brexit, even if I disagree with it. I'd much rather they came out and admitted they wanted to stop Brexit, than the mealy mouthed lie about a second referendum being about choice and democracy.

I think her cancel Brexit message probably placed her as a bit more of an extremist than many are comfortable with, especially if she was trying to look like the only sane person in the room.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

On 12/9/2019 at 11:44 AM, Werthead said:

Blairisim had its day and died in failure (having killed an awful lot of Iraqis along the way). Why people keep wanting to bring it back and think it would have handled the situation any better now is baffling. That ship sailed with the Edstone and the bacon sandwich in 2015 (not that Miliband was a particularly hardcore Blairite anyway), not to mention that at least part of the reason for Blair's success was the lack of direction of the Tories in that time period. With the Tories now embracing neo-Thatcherism (Thatcher but turned all the way to 11), that's not the case now.

Sorry, general rant coming. But this defense of Corbyn by pointing at Blair is getting absurd.

This is the worst and weakest goverment I can imagine, they even manage to exceed my imagination in that respect. They are now on their third Primeminister since hte referendum. And their current clown in charge is Boris Pfeffing Johnson. They expelled Clarke, Grieve and any semi-decent politician they had and their front bench is filled with politicians of the quality of Partel, Raab, Rees-grenfellvictimsdeservedtoburnbecausetheyarestupid-Twat, Michael the squinting toilette brush Gove (who might very well be heavily into cocaine again, the way he has conducted himself during this election cycle), Andrea Loathsome etc. And yet, Labour is not wiping the floor with those live brain donors. That's all there's to say about Corbyn's leadership. It's a freaking indictment of his work as leader of the opposition.  So yeah, Corbyn is not Blair, as the latter actually managed to win an election.

And for what it's worth, Corbyn pushed for an election before a second referendum, with an explicit ambivalent message about what he wants. Now he doesn't get to cry about Leavers Uniting behind that Tory clown car. Again, Corbyn is not Blair, as the latter said that's a terrible idea months ago. Guess what, old Blur actually happens to know a thing or two, besides how to kill Iraqis.

[SeanF]

Panelbase has Con 43%, Lab 34%, Lib Dem 11%.

All sorts of seats were in play for the Lib Dems at the start, which have just fallen away.

[Werthead]

21 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Sorry, general rant coming. But this defense of Corbyn by pointing at Blair is getting absurd.

This is the worst and weakest goverment I can imagine, they even manage to exceed my imagination in that respect. They are now on their third Primeminister since hte referendum. And their current clown in charge is Boris Pfeffing Johnson. They expelled Clarke, Grieve and any semi-decent politician they had and their front bench is filled with politicians of the quality of Partel, Raab, Rees-grenfellvictimsdeservedtoburnbecausetheyarestupid-Twat, Michael the squinting toilette brush Gove (who might very well be heavily into cocaine again, the way he has conducted himself during this election cycle), Andrea Loathsome etc. And yet, Labour is not wiping the floor with those live brain donors. That's all there's to say about Corbyn's leadership. It's a freaking indictment of his work as leader of the opposition.  So yeah, Corbyn is not Blair, as the latter actually managed to win an election.

And for what it's worth, Corbyn pushed for an election before a second referendum, with an explicit ambivalent message about what he wants. Now he doesn't get to cry about Leavers Uniting behind that Tory clown car. Again, Corbyn is not Blair, as the latter said that's a terrible idea months ago. Guess what, old Blur actually happens to know a thing or two, besides how to kill Iraqis.

The Conservatives have also positioned themselves as clearly wanting to push Brexit through ASAP (on the lie that after 31 January no-one will ever hear about Brexit again, which has become so pervasive that the EU had to push back on that this week) and getting the whole thing over and done with regardless of if you voted Leave or Remain. That's a more powerful, simpler message than Corbyn's negotiate a new deal (which will just be May's old deal with the custom union and regulatory alignment, let's be honest, so not that much work) and then have a referendum to confirm it. To the majority who don't follow these things closely, the Tories have a clearer and simpler message, which is then transmitted by the media, the overwhelming majority of which backs the Conservatives out of their own vested interest (as we covered previously), which also continuously lies about the Labour Party and its policies.

Blair won his elections by becoming Tory-lite (just with a bit more money for the NHS rolled in), by the Tories completely imploding at that particular point in time and by a handy war or two encouraging the country to rally around him. That might be a reflection of the fact that Britain, as a whole, is simply a conservative, short-sighted and selfish nation and may no longer be capable of electing a genuine left-leaning government (not to mention our left-wing views are split between several parties which refuse to cooperate in any meaningful fashion, even when faced with the biggest national crisis in seventy years).

I agree that Corbyn has not helped his cause by not having as simple a position on Brexit (even if the general idea of trying to appeal to both Remainers and Leavers is sound) and by not doing well on his feet in interviews, and noticeably less well so this time around than in 2017, but given the way the deck is stacked against him, it'll be impressive if he doesn't end up tomorrow with a 100+ seat deficit to the Tories.

If Labour lose tomorrow - which seems probable - then I think Corbyn will be gone, and then we can see what the hell happens with his successor. I have no idea how that's going to turn out (and will hinge on if any of Labour's other big hitters lose their seats).

[Werthead]

Bit of a Freudian slip by the BBC there.

Two LibDem candidates ask their supporters to vote Labour instead.

Kuenssberg under investigation for saying that postal votes already painting a "grim" picture for Labour, as that could influence people voting tomorrow.

[SeanF]

Comres are slightly better for Labour, 41/36/12, which they think would give a Conservative majority of 6.

But Kantar TNS have 44/32/13.

[HexMachina]

So i misplaced my polling card and went online to find out where my local polling station is to be told to refer to my polling card. Thanks for that, really helpful

[karaddin]

I really don't understand the confidence that other leaders would be doing so much better than Corbyn. Much like a certain other buffoon the media landscape functions to ensure all of Johnson's cock ups don't actually hurt him, and whoever takes up the leadership after a loss is going to receive exactly the same treatment of being a scary left wing threat to good English prosperity.

It is possible that an amazing leader can overcome this, but where are they? If that leader existed in the Labour party surely they'd have already stepped forward? Corbyn is still in the job because no one in the party could convince the members that they are a better choice than him, how are they going to convince the electorate in the midst of mass propaganda.

[The Marquis de Leech]

As I've said before, Foot, Kinnock, Brown, and Milliband were all demonised too. It's part of the job description of being Labour Leader. Corbyn should have had a plan to deal with this, but sadly he didn't. Ultimately, however, this is less about "terrible opposition" and more about a Brexit-induced realignment of voting patterns. Corbyn is King Canute before the tide at this point, and I doubt whether anyone else would be doing any better - the camps have become so crystalised.

5 hours ago, Heartofice said:

 If he'd had a solid position on Brexit then I think it would be VERY close. But he has really produced the most nonsensical direction for his party I can imagine. 

Its also curious how poorly Swinson has done. Her STOP BREXIT campaign should have worked far better, but she seemed to have had the wind fall out of her sails, maybe when tactics became clearer and some of her interviews didn't go so well.

So, having a fudged position is a mistake, and having a strong position is  mistake... it's almost like it's a no-win situation, and Corbyn would prefer to talk about anything other than Brexit. Quite apart from the problem that turning Labour into the party of Remain results in a self-gerrymander under First Past the Post, to a degree where if the realignment continues, Labour would be better off coming out for proportional representation. 

[Chaircat Meow]

So the final polls range between a 12% lead for the Tories and a 5% lead. The likelihood is a Tory majority but a hung Parliament is potentially in play if there is an on-the-day swing or a little polling error in favour of the Tories.  

Final Poll Leads:

ComRes 5pts

ICM 6pts

Panelbase 9pts

YouGov 9pts

BMG 9pts

Deltapoll 10pts

NPC 10pts

Opinium 12pts

Kantar 12pts

Qriously 13pt

 

[SeanF]

5 hours ago, Chaircat Meow said:

So the final polls range between a 12% lead for the Tories and a 5% lead. The likelihood is a Tory majority but a hung Parliament is potentially in play if there is an on-the-day swing or a little polling error in favour of the Tories.  

Final Poll Leads:

ComRes 5pts

ICM 6pts

Panelbase 9pts

YouGov 9pts

BMG 9pts

Deltapoll 10pts

NPC 10pts

Opinium 12pts

Kantar 12pts

Qriously 13pt

 

Survation also has 11%.

[mormont]

10 hours ago, karaddin said:

I really don't understand the confidence that other leaders would be doing so much better than Corbyn. Much like a certain other buffoon the media landscape functions to ensure all of Johnson's cock ups don't actually hurt him

This is not really true, actually. Johnson's personal approval ratings have plunged during this campaign, apparently as a result of his many stumbles. The trouble is that they're still better than Corbyn's, which are truly shockingly bad. Every major party leader has negative approval ratings but Corbyn is getting the worst by far - and much worse than he was getting in 2017, when he was even getting some positive ratings (despite the same press coverage then).

And this is why Corbyn is getting stick. Because the fact is that up to now, Parliament has only been able to hold the government to account because of first, May's misjudgement in holding the 2017 election combined with her weakness as a leader and more recently, Johnson's spectacular ineptitude and arrogance in pissing off his own allies. But if he gets a working majority today, Johnson being crap won't matter. Parliament will be unable to hold him to account when he crashes the country into a wall, as he inevitably will.

And Johnson will get that majority not because he has run a good campaign - his campaign has been terrible. He'll get it principally because Farage decided to shoot his own party in the foot for whatever reason, and because both Corbyn and Swinson have run weak campaigns that have failed to resonate with voters, particularly those outside their own party. Corbyn's strategy has been a failure. He's failed to make any serious inroads despite Johnson's stumbles. He needs to go.

[Pebble thats Stubby]

Well I voted,  and its the first time in my life I've voted at the same time as my Hubby.

 

We done our bit to reduce the amount our non-local ERG twat will win by.

 

we where the only ones in the polling station, although someone left as we arrived and someone else pulled up as we left.

[Spockydog]

Irvine Welsh sums it up perfectly.