IheartIheartTesla Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 How popular is this Iran thing anyway? All I see on social media is the same depressing partisan response (essentially chest thumping on one side). Cant seem to find its impact on Trump's approval anywhere, but I suspect like most things it will be a wash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said: How popular is this Iran thing anyway? All I see on social media is the same depressing partisan response (essentially chest thumping on one side). Cant seem to find its impact on Trump's approval anywhere, but I suspect like most things it will be a wash. I'm sure if anything his popularity will go up. Americans love decisive action on foreign policy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mormont Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 16 hours ago, DMC said: I do believe those polls. Because they've been showing the same thing consistently for a long time. I think there's a way to explain, but I do acknowledge it is weird. The empirical fact is there are Biden-Sanders voters, and then there are Warren-Buttigieg voters. The former are obviously much larger. Impossible to game out what that means right now, but once voting starts, it's a good thing to keep in mind. I think it's only weird if we start from the notion that voters act rationally based on policy preferences, which as we've seen isn't really the case. If you assume voters are starting from other places, it makes perfect sense. Warren is a woman, Buttigeig a gay man: both are minorities that have never been elected as President so that, for example, is a perfectly rational and predictable switch if you see the Presidency as substantially symbolic and believe that Warren and Buttigieg will be forced to govern within similar bounds. Similarly, if you think only an older straight white guy can beat Trump, perhaps because you are one yourself or because you worry about Trump's appeal to white working class voters, switching from Sanders to Biden makes perfect sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry of the Lawn Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Castro just endorsed Warren, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Just now, larrytheimp said: Castro just endorsed Warren, fwiw. Yeah, a little surprised to see that, but not at all disappointed, since I'm favoring Warren more and more these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry of the Lawn Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 12 minutes ago, Maithanet said: Yeah, a little surprised to see that, but not at all disappointed, since I'm favoring Warren more and more these days. I'm pulling for Sanders or Warren, just hoping one of them goes out early so the other has a chance against Biden or Buttigieg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Just now, larrytheimp said: I'm pulling for Sanders or Warren, just hoping one of them goes out early so the other has a chance against Biden or Buttigieg There is no chance whatsoever of Sanders dropping out early. He has a ton of cash and is a "movement" guy, so he has zero fucks to give about whether he has a realistic chance to win, he'll keep on regardless. It is one of the big reasons why it is dangerous to let someone who isn't a Democrat run in the Democratic primary. In contrast, if Warren doesn't win any of the first four states, I could see her dropping out before Super Tuesday. She knows that the longer the race has a ton of viable candidates the higher the probability of a contested convention, which would be mean the Democrats wouldn't have their nominee until midsummer (AKA way too late). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 John Bolton has just announced that he will testify before the Senate if called as a witness. Holy shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 The Biden apathy has me a bit surprised. I agree he’s not my first choice, but I think that’s just because I’m politically active. He will probably appeal more than others to average voters, and again all that matters is winning. There’s not going to be a ton of policy change regardless of who wins assuming the Dems can take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 5 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said: John Bolton has just announced that he will testify before the Senate if called as a witness. Holy shit. With all the leaks coming out, it’s best to be in the front of the CYA line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: With all the leaks coming out, it’s best to be in the front of the CYA line. The question is, how will Mitch McConnell structure his ‘no’? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IheartIheartTesla Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Bolton will testify in the Senate trial if he is issued a subpoena, but it still needs 4 Republican senators to sign on (for a simple majority). This is Collins moment to shine [/sarcasm] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry of the Lawn Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 29 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: The Biden apathy has me a bit surprised. I agree he’s not my first choice, but I think that’s just because I’m politically active. He will probably appeal more than others to average voters, and again all that matters is winning. There’s not going to be a ton of policy change regardless of who wins assuming the Dems can take it. Why would you expect people who aren't politically active to know that there isn't going to be much policy difference? He may appeal more than others to average voters, but probabaly appeals less to those who don't vote because they are apathetic or disaffected. Or young people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 40 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said: Bolton will testify in the Senate trial if he is issued a subpoena, but it still needs 4 Republican senators to sign on (for a simple majority). This is Collins moment to shine [/sarcasm] There won't be a public break, but there could possibly be a private push that forces McConnell's hand (still unlikely though). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Centrist Simon Steele Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 hour ago, larrytheimp said: I'm pulling for Sanders or Warren, just hoping one of them goes out early so the other has a chance against Biden or Buttigieg Same. I really waffle on which of the two I like more, but I do think one of them needs to get out sooner rather than later. I hear the data that their supporters aren't of the same groups, but I have my doubts about the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 33 minutes ago, Simon Steele said: Same. I really waffle on which of the two I like more, but I do think one of them needs to get out sooner rather than later. I hear the data that their supporters aren't of the same groups, but I have my doubts about the data. Anyone who has preferences based around "only this kind of person can beat Trump," or "that kind of person could never beat Trump," or "I want this kind of person to become President," or "I am familiar with this person's name because they are in the news so much" isn't going to care as much about policy differences or similarities between the candidates. And their list of second and third choices will seem confusing to people who are focusing on what their policy wishes are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Mother of The Others Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Janus had two heads. Sew Warren and Sanders together into a conjoined candidate. Modern science is splitting conjoined twins, it's high time to forge one. Warders. Sanren. It'd double the spending projections like when Trebek has Double Jeopardy, only it'd be the national insolvency edition. (Tomorrow is the big showdown of the champions on Jeopardy by the way). When you list a website's click policy could you also list which pronouns it uses? Thanx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Arryn Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 So, the WH is now claiming Soleimani was partly responsible for 9-11. Two questions: 1) How stupid do they think Americans are? 2) Are they correct on that count? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Mother of The Others Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 Oh no. If you sew two white people together, that'd be no bueno. Not enough diversity. You'd need to add a Southeast Asian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IheartIheartTesla Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, James Arryn said: So, the WH is now claiming Soleimani was partly responsible for 9-11. Two questions: 1) How stupid do they think Americans are? 2) Are they correct on that count? Saudi Arabians and Iranians working together is totally believable. Also, why didnt they lead with that then, rather than dubiously claim US lives were at threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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