Werthead Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Iran certainly isn't Iraq, which had been sanctioned into extreme poverty for thirteen years before the invasion and had never really recovered from the Iran-Iraq War, let alone the Gulf War. Iran has some reasonably serious hardware,including the Qader anti-ship missile which can fly at between 3 and 5 feet above sea level for 300 kilometres (apart from some parts around Qatar, the Persian Gulf is mostly much less than 300km wide, and at Hormuz it's only 56km wide). It also has the Kowsar, which was used by Hezbollah to cripple an Israeli warship in 2006. Given current US anti-missile tech, it is unlikely that Iran would be able to sink a major US asset, but certainly not impossible, especially if they get too close to the shoreline where Iran has an absolute shit-ton of short range (under 25km) options which could be used to try to overwhelm close-range defences. The question is where Iran will retaliate, and that is much more likely to be through proxies in Syria or Iraq, or possibly even solely through diplomatic means, such as the current legislation in Baghdad to expel all US troops from the country. Forcing the US to withdraw from Iraq without firing a single shot could be spun by the Iranian regime into a major victory, and maintains the international support for the nuclear deal. If Iran starts shooting at US forces, international support would become more fragmented. That said, I'm not sure if the US currently has a full battle group in the Gulf. The Harry S. Truman was in the Indian Ocean yesterday and the US typically always has forces within striking range of the Gulf, but it's unclear what forces are currently there. During the sabre rattling last year the US had two full carrier groups in the region, so it seems the current escalation has not been accompanied by a build-up to meet any kind of retaliation, which seems a bit unwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darryk Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 I thought Trump's MAGA movement was different from the flag-waving "'Americaaaa, fuck yeah!" crowd that made up George W Bush's fanbase. Turns out they're the same after all, with only a small minority making up the paleo-conservative and libertarian crowd (ideologies that are supposed to be anti-war). Of course, even some of the so-called libertarians are cheering Trump's decision while still pretending to be anti-war. I saw Charlie "I'm a libertarian, really!" Kirk tweet that "we must show restraint with Iran BUT BLOWING UP THE SECOND MOST POWERFUL PERSON WAS AWESOME. GO TRUMP!". Hacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spockydog Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 5 hours ago, Jace, Basilissa said: If the Iranians successfully sink a single major U.S. Naval asset then I'll make another sex tape with Gary Busey. Pah. Pompeo will just get the Israelis to sink USS Clusterfucked and then blame it on Iran. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 10 hours ago, karaddin said: Hey come on now, some of us called "Trump winning the nomination is actually something to be scared about rather than making it a lock for Clinton" since at least early 2016! That's one of these predictions coming through! I remember people cheering for Trump to get the nomination because it ment it would be a lock for Clinton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Interesting thread this morning that’s worth a read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Arryn Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 26 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: I remember people cheering for Trump to get the nomination because it ment it would be a lock for Clinton. I remember speaking at length about the quandary of ‘better odds/nightmare downside’, and about how being in London for Brexit had given me serious heebee-jeebees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DireWolfSpirit Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 23 hours ago, Fez said: Are we fucking 18th century pirates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DireWolfSpirit Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 10 hours ago, ThinkerX said: First, 'mine sweepers for Allah.' During the Iran/Iraq war Iranian troops would visit schools near the war zone. 'We need mine sweepers,' they'd say. They'd take the kids to the mine fields and have them walk across, detonating the mines meant for the soldiers. Do you have a link for where you read this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingintheNorth4 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 On 1/3/2020 at 1:52 AM, karaddin said: Yeah I think its safe to say they are, bunch of these below this first tweet. As they say, war is a racket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 13 hours ago, James Arryn said: No. First, the Republicans always rally around Trump. And second, even more importantly, Americans always rally around the flag early on and a huge chunk of them get very very enthusiastic about the chance to see America flex it’s military muscles ‘over there’, regardless of the validity of said war. If it’s war, you’ll see a ton of shouting down opposition as treason, cowardice, and failure to support the troops, we’ll see all kinds of hyperbole about the Iranian regime...not that they’re saints anyways...and I’d be very surprised if there wasn’t a major push to frame Iran as some sort of existential threat to the US. And people will buy all this cool aid by the gallon and drink it down with jingoistic fervour. Trump cannot spin the consequences that will result from Iran's retaliation. Any attacks U.S. citizens or allies will be directly tied to his actions on this. He will not be able to disclaim responsibility. He's never made such a decisive action that could be directly tied back to him. All his "foreign policy" has been threats and waffling and moving goalposts and spinning narratives. And he's been able to do so by sitting on both sides of the fence and not committing to anything. He's committed now though, and he'll own all of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Melifeather Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 52 minutes ago, KingintheNorth4 said: As they say, war is a racket. https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-01-03/defense-stocks-qassem-suleimani Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThinkerX Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 6 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said: Do you have a link for where you read this? Twenty, thirty years ago, these stories were in wide circulation. Bush the First grasped their import, which might be one reason the Kuwait war stayed in Kuwait, more or less. These days...it's almost like there is a deliberate effort to forget such horrors. Did find this, though: https://books.google.com/books?id=1u2yapXv0YoC&pg=PA220&lpg=PA220&dq=minesweepers+for+allah&source=bl&ots=MJWeeyfyYn&sig=ACfU3U0KWCiIdgqhO_zJ5BiyuE9nOz2QMA&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiOy4HvkOvmAhUH7J4KHcFsCV4Q6AEwCXoECAoQAQ#v=onepage&q=minesweepers for allah&f=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freshwater Spartan Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 9 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said: This made me laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
karaddin Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 11 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: I remember people cheering for Trump to get the nomination because it ment it would be a lock for Clinton. Yeah that's what I'm referring to. There were a few of us solidly on the left side that were very concerned and called that early. It's the only Trump related "calling it early" that panned out. On the profiteering front - there was also a vague, and hastily deleted, tweet from Don Jr that suggests knowledge that the strike was coming before the New Year and the defense company stocks jumped in response to that too. So national security related market manipulation looks like it's probably being quite profitable. Trump had also let people at Mar a Lago know despite not informing a bunch of allies and others that should have received a heads up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spockydog Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 11 hours ago, ThinkerX said: Twenty, thirty years ago, these stories were in wide circulation. Ooh, I wonder who was circulating them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 1 hour ago, Spockydog said: Ooh, I wonder who was circulating them. The Iranians almost certainly used kids as human shields to get across the minefields during the conflict, but most of what @ThinkerX detailed is the type of stuff you hear at a very grimy dive bar at a very late time. Unverifiable and apocryphal, to put it nicely. Never mind, ya know, what Saddam did during the conflict, even though he was the aggressor and had the US' (and most of the west's) backing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Maybe they also used the babies they ripped out of incubators in the hospital, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 One way to get out of Iraq... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Arryn Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 The number of times we have witnessed people metaphorically take out their gun, take deliberate aim at their foot, give a kind of Clint Eastwood narrowed-eyes little nod of determination, proceed to ‘squeeze-not-jerk’ the trigger, than hop around howling with surprise and outrage at the pain is getting weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted January 5, 2020 Share Posted January 5, 2020 Just a follow up to the previous tweet from an Iraqi MP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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