International Thread 4

[rotting sea cow]

On 8/18/2020 at 9:02 AM, Horza said:

It doesn’t look like there’s any real line on Belarus coming out of the Kremlin. The ‘guarantees’ to Lukashenko are in regards to external activity and hence basically worthless (Russia could decide to treat the protests as an external operation, but the discretion is Russia’s alone) and the language regarding Lukashenko has been far from fully committal.

State TV has played around with Polish conspiracy stuff as well as reported on Lukashenko’s massive unpopularity and regular media has been similarly mixed, and if anything unflattering to Luka. This is a big contrast with 2014 where Russian media was all Novorossiya all the time. 

The other big reason this isn’t like 2014 is Belarus isn’t Crimea. It’s many times bigger in land and population and not regarded by Russians as a piece of core territory carved out by a lamentable Ukrainian premier in the 50s. Belarusians are culturally pro-Russian in the way a lot of the post-industrial Donbas is but they’re not Russian and can’t be expected to appreciate little green men propping up a throughly unpopular President.  

Given that most of the opposition is anti-Lukashenko rather than pro-Western (a big part of its mainstream success) the dynamics don’t really work in favour of serious Russian intervention not least because domestically most Russians think Lukashenko lost.
 

Which isn’t to say mistakes can’t be made but just that a lot of things indicate that the stakes aren’t as high as 2014, there isn’t a big push to back up Luka as yet and all of the intervention options look bad for Putin.

Thanks for the information. In Europe, countries have also been pretty noncommittal probably for the similar reasons. Any attempt to intervene in favor of the opposition may promptly backfire. 

I'd guess that the position of the Belarusian military is something to consider too. By their own they can keep Lukashenko in power or remove him if necessary, so no foreign forces are necessary in that respect. So, unless there is a high risk of Belarus failing in "Western hands", Russia probably sees no need of intervening and risking a confrontation with the Belarusian military.

[Varysblackfyre321]

On 8/24/2020 at 4:41 PM, The Anti-Targ said:

At the risk of keeping the cancel discussion going, I thought cancellation was an in-group thing (libs cancelling libs, fascies cancelling fascies) when it's out-group then it's something different: victimising, systematic oppression, bigotry, persecution.

 

I wouldn’t quantify it like that; canceling, cam understood as something that can be done out group.

An example; not racists boycotting Rossane Barr for being extremely racist. 
Many on the right accuse the left of trying to cancel them.

Though many on the right also don’t see canceling people they don’t like through things like murder as bad; 

 

[DireWolfSpirit]

4 hours ago, The Marquis de Leech said:

In a positive bit of news, the Christchurch shooter has been sentenced:

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/424585/live-updates-christchurch-mosque-shooter-sentenced-to-life-without-parole

Absolutely sickening massacre, so glad he will be locked up forever, I still think Capitol punishment for such instances would be even more appropriate.

This particular slaughter will forever haunt me because I clicked on it while it was still up on Youtube, not realizing it was the killers actual upload that was lingering around until it got pulled down.

Horrible, life in prison is more than the guy deserves.

[The Marquis de Leech]

25 minutes ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

Absolutely sickening massacre, so glad he will be locked up forever, I still think Capitol punishment for such instances would be even more appropriate.

New Zealand abolished capital punishment in 1961.

[DireWolfSpirit]

2 hours ago, The Marquis de Leech said:

New Zealand abolished capital punishment in 1961.

I assumed as much, I still support extinguishing the lives of mass murders though. In particular the perpetrator of this heinous spree.

[Ser Reptitious]

10 hours ago, The Marquis de Leech said:

In a positive bit of news, the Christchurch shooter has been sentenced:

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/424585/live-updates-christchurch-mosque-shooter-sentenced-to-life-without-parole

Great news indeed. I just wish that the media would follow the PM’s example and never mention his name. Infamy is what these guys crave, so let them be forever obscure. He should simply be known as the Christchurch shooter, nothing more. If anything, it should be his victims who should be named whenever this comes up.

[The Anti-Targ]

Capital punishment intensifies the punitive aspect of criminal justice for the criminal by making the convict worry about their imminent demise. But after they're dead, unless you believe in the after-life and justice there as well, then their punishment and suffering is over. That just leaves "us" with some kind of feeling of righteous vengeance. It also saves the state about $100K/year, once they are dead. I think we are well past any notion that capital punishment is any kind of deterrent to murder.

Life in prison, until "natural" death, is a less intense punishment, but in aggregate if you are all about making them suffer then the life behind bars option is actually worse.

I would support capital punishment if it was motivated by mercy towards the criminal. But even then, for someone like the Christchurch terrorist who is a political criminal and thus a legitimate political prisoner, I would not want him put to death. Because then he becomes even more of a hero to those who ideologically supported his actions. For political criminals such as he it's actually better to try to reform his character, for him to convert to the cause of peace and reconciliation, recognise the justness of his sentence, and from behind bars write essays and articles exhorting his former sympathisers to see the light. And if he never reforms his character, he sits and rots to the end of his days.

[Clueless Northman]

I'm not taking any position for or against capital punishment, but there's still something I think should be taken into account, at least in some cases - let's say people like Hitler or Saddam Hussein. As long as the scumbag is alive, there is the possibility that he can be set free and won't suffer for the rest of his life. Like Tyrion said, death is quite final, and once dead, you're sure there isn't any chance left that the guy could ever enjoy life again.

But of course, there's a lot of things that can, and should, be taken into consideration.

[The Anti-Targ]

Dropping this here as very interesting insight into the intersection between science and policy-making. The main speaker, sir Peter Gluckman, was the chief science adviser to previous New Zealand Prime Ministers. Long, but worth a watch if you are the slightest bit interested in this kind of thing. If you are practiced it is easily followable at 1.5x speed. And if you are not practiced at it, give it a try at 1.5x speed, you'll be surprised at how easy it is to follow.

This is great exposure to an internationally influential scientist speaking in such an open manner. While not exploring the science in depth the context of this address is the Global Research Alliance on agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, so a lot of the references made are in relation to policy on this topic.

The moderator is a guy who used to work in my ministry, and I'm pretty sure Sir Peter is talking about him in one place where he mentions a junior analyst in the Ag ministry having aspirations of working for the foreign affairs ministry.

hopefully the link works for everyone who wants to watch.

 

[DireWolfSpirit]

Japan's Prime Minister Abe to resign for health reasons.

Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to resign for health reasons, country's public broadcaster says

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/28/asia/shinzo-abe-japan-resignation-health-intl-hnk/index.html

[DireWolfSpirit]

Iranian father beheads sleeping daughter.

Only gets nine year sentence for the crime, pretty disgusting.

https://news.yahoo.com/iranian-man-sentenced-nine-years-132559263.html

Why is life in prison not a universal standard for this kind of barbarism, is beyond me? There should be no debate for a case like this. The mother is furiously out of her mind and justifiably so.

[rotting sea cow]

3 minutes ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

Iranian father beheads sleeping daughter.

Only gets nine year sentence for the crime, pretty disgusting.

https://news.yahoo.com/iranian-man-sentenced-nine-years-132559263.html

Why is life in prison not a universal standard for this kind of barbarism, is beyond me? There should be no debate for a case like this. The mother is furiously out of her mind and justifiably so.

Why he didn't get the noose is what is beyond me. Iran applies the death penalty quite liberally, but of course over there some lives are worth more than others.

[Varysblackfyre321]

https://japantoday.com/category/world/berlin-halts-'anti-corona'-rally-as-european-cities-protest-masks
Unfortunate, but not surprising to see fascists capitalizing off of the pandemic.

But remember the greatest threat to democracy, are Twitter mobs. 

[Heartofice]

5 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

https://japantoday.com/category/world/berlin-halts-'anti-corona'-rally-as-european-cities-protest-masks
Unfortunate, but not surprising to see fascists capitalizing off of the pandemic.

But remember the greatest threat to democracy, are Twitter mobs. 

Which Fascists are you referring to here?

[Toth]

57 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

Which Fascists are you referring to here?

I suppose the ones waving Imperial flags?

Though I must admit, while the AfD does pour some oil into the fire, those protesters are mostly just a colorful collection of conspiracy theorists. The Reichsbürger seem to be the most prominent troublemakers. Those are conspiracy theorists who claim that the German Empire was never formally dissolved and that our current government is just a... company I think? Which is why a bunch of them, including some F-list celebrity TV cook who gained some infamy during the pandemic, were trying to push into the Russian embassy demanding a peace treaty for WW2 or something.

To be honest just writing this makes me dissolve in a puddle of shame... So much concentrated stupidity hurts...

[Varysblackfyre321]

1 hour ago, Toth said:

Though I must admit, while the AfD does pour some oil into the fire, those protesters are mostly just a colorful collection of conspiracy theorists. The Reichsbürger seem to be the most prominent troublemakers. Those are conspiracy theorists who claim that the German Empire was never formally dissolved and that our current government is just a... company I think?

That doesn’t seem to be harmless.

It seems to be group that posits the current democratic state of Germany is illegitimate, and would like to return a more authoritarian time.

A return of empire.

Maybe one that’ll last a thousand years.

[kiko]

Not necessarily. A lot of them use the opportunity to declare their own kingdom or whatever. Issuing their own passports and so on. They really come in al kinds of colours - non of them very pretty. But not per se fascists. Very often it's about not paying taxes and fines, which they seem to accumulate.

But yes, there is a considerable overlap with Nazis and probably even more so with gun nuts.

[Mindwalker]

I agree that many of them are not harmless at all.

Remember when we all thought those few Trumpists were - well, mostly protesters and nutcases, not racist or right-wing?

[Prue]

Incidentally, those right-wing neo-nazi protesters who tried to storm the Reichstag in Berlin yesterday waved Reichskriegsflaggen (Imperial War Flags) and American Flags. I guess they see a kindred ideology represented by the current US administration... https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/29/berlin-braces-for-anti-coronavirus-protest-against-covid-19-restrictions

[Ser Reptitious]

18 minutes ago, Prue said:

Incidentally, those right-wing neo-nazi protesters who tried to storm the Reichstag in Berlin yesterday waved Reichskriegsflaggen (Imperial War Flags) and American Flags. I guess they see a kindred ideology represented by the current US administration... https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/29/berlin-braces-for-anti-coronavirus-protest-against-covid-19-restrictions

Wow! 

I’d say it’s one thing to have anti-Trump protesters draw an uncomfortable (but sadly very understandable) analogy between the Nazis and the current U.S. government, but how bad/sad is it when people who seem to whole-heartedly support the original Nazis draw the same conclusion? 

I don’t want to give a heart attack to @Scot A Ellison, but I wonder how a Trump supporter like his mom would rationalize THAT one away (although, sadly, I don’t doubt that she would)...