US Politics: 133 Days to Nov. 3, But Who's Counting?

[Maithanet]

2 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

I was looking at 2016 data, and it appears that HRC never crossed the 50 mark in 538's poll average. Biden has already done so in his 9 point lead (50.3 to 41.4, leaving about 10 percent unaccounted for). A good place to be at this time.

A lot of that is just a function of there being fewer undecided/third party voters at this time, rather than Biden being popular per se.  But nonetheless, a 50-42 lead is a great deal more secure than a 45-37 lead.  By election time in 2016, the polling consensus was approximately 46/42, and the remaining 12% of voters went ~6% third party, 4% Trump and 2% Clinton.  Which led to the disaster we're in now. 

Indications are that the "dislikes both" camp is better for Biden than it would have been for Clinton as it is currently less Republican than 2016 and unhappy with the status quo (which is now Trump).  But even if the remaining group did swing to Trump like 2016 (2% third party, 4% Trump and 2% Biden), 52-46 is still a comfortable victory.  Barring some Trump powerplay to not fully count the votes or ignore the results, of course.  

[Zorral]

Interview with Kamala Harris:

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/06/the-status-quos-not-working-talking-with-kamala-harris.html

It deals extensively with policing, police departments and police unions, as one would expect.

[DMC]

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

Indications are that the "dislikes both" camp is better for Biden than it would have been for Clinton as it is currently less Republican than 2016 and unhappy with the status quo (which is now Trump).

Right.  Not only has this been consistently borne out through polling, but theoretically the "don't like both sides" vote will always trend towards the challenger.  In 2016, Hillary represented the incumbent party.  Obviously that's reversed now, and one of the most important fundamental differences between the two races.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

nvm 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

11 hours ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

Was 9/11 "controversial" or was it an inside job?

Rumor has it parts of you can melt steel beams. 

At least that was what @Fragile Bird said when she was swilling her brandy all over the bar.  

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

So Amy's out on the VP race, and I think correctly said that a woman of color should be the pick.

Keeping my eyes on the betting odds, seems Susan Rice has surged recently to challenge Demings for second place behind Harris.  I would certainly prefer her to Demings, or Bottoms, but Harris is still the clear choice to take the party into the future.  Rice is much better off as SoS, which she should already have been if it wasn't for the GOP weaponizing Benghazi.  She's never ran a campaign, and while I love Rice in interviews and think she'd be pretty good at the communications aspect, I just don't see the point in risking it right now.

[DMC]

2 hours ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

I was looking at 2016 data, and it appears that HRC never crossed the 50 mark in 538's poll average. Biden has already done so in his 9 point lead (50.3 to 41.4, leaving about 10 percent unaccounted for). A good place to be at this time.

Also looking at RCP Biden is currently at a net of 8.8, the highest all year.  Comparatively, Hillary at this time or later peaked at 7.7 in early August.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

32 minutes ago, DMC said:

Keeping my eyes on the betting odds, seems Susan Rice has surged recently to challenge Demings for second place behind Harris.  I would certainly prefer her to Demings, or Bottoms, but Harris is still the clear choice to take the party into the future.  Rice is much better off as SoS, which she should already have been if it wasn't for the GOP weaponizing Benghazi.  She's never ran a campaign, and while I love Rice in interviews and think she'd be pretty good at the communications aspect, I just don't see the point in risking it right now.

I still find Rice's rise to be a bit odd, even though I do really like her. And as I've said in past conversations, I really like Demings, but you have a lot more experience with her.

Still feels like Harris is going to be the pick though. Her only negatives are ones people want to manufacture, but then again I was an early supporter of hers to lead the ticket so I know i'm biased. 

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

but then again I was an early supporter of hers to lead the ticket so I know i'm biased.

Same.  I also find Rice's rise a bit odd - especially considering it seems to be coterminous with those Condoleezza Rice op-eds a bit ago.  Maybe bettors really are just conflating the two because of their striking similarities?

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

4 minutes ago, DMC said:

Same.  I also find Rice's rise a bit odd - especially considering it seems to be coterminous with those Condoleezza Rice op-eds a bit ago.  Maybe bettors really are just conflating the two because of their striking similarities?

Susan Rice still seems like an odd choice, but she's far more qualified than Condoleezza, if we're going to judge the two by their worst public moments. Susan's real crime was reading misleading and/or inaccurate talking points for a few hours. Condoleezza, OTOH, straight up lied about everything leading up to 9/11 and then perpetuated the lies to justify two wars that got hundreds of thousands of people killed.

Not exactly the same thing.

I expect Harris or Demings to be named as the pick within a few weeks. Would I be shocked if it was Susan Rice? No. But I have a hard time seeing her as a top tier choice. She'd make an easy SoS though.

I'm guessing Whiter is officially out, but she could find herself with a high level cabinet position. She's been a good and loyal solider. AG perhaps? If Biden does win it's fair to assume he will have the most diverse cabinet in our nation's history, and I seriously do hope he puts the big O on the SC, just cause. 

[Ran]

19 minutes ago, DMC said:

Maybe bettors really are just conflating the two because of their striking similarities?

Almost certainly. The betting markets are absurd.

[Fez]

58 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I expect Harris or Demings to be named as the pick within a few weeks.

Whoever it is, I don't think it'll be within a few weeks. The convention, presumably all/almost-all virtual, isn't until August 17. And I don't think the pick gets named until then or shortly before then. With polling showing Biden comfortably ahead right now, there's no need to try to make a big splash to shake things up. Better to maximize the amount of time available for vetting the possible candidates to ensure no bad surprises.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

6 minutes ago, Fez said:

Whoever it is, I don't think it'll be within a few weeks. The convention, presumably all/almost-all virtual, isn't until August 17. And I don't think the pick gets named until then or shortly before then. With polling showing Biden comfortably ahead right now, there's no need to try to make a big splash to shake things up. Better to maximize the amount of time available for vetting the possible candidates to ensure no bad surprises.

Nah, too conventional thinking. The BLM protests are taking the world over in the wake of Floyd's murder here in Minneapolis. I'd announce early assuming they're the final two choices, and keep things hot and moving. 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

2 hours ago, DMC said:

Also looking at RCP Biden is currently at a net of 8.8, the highest all year.  Comparatively, Hillary at this time or later peaked at 7.7 in early August.

Still to early for getting the grave dancing shoes out to polish. Or to put it in a more quotable trueism. Polls are not votes.

[Fez]

40 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Nah, too conventional thinking. The BLM protests are taking the world over in the wake of Floyd's murder here in Minneapolis. I'd announce early assuming they're the final two choices, and keep things hot and moving. 

Following that logic though, you also don't want to run the risk of peaking too early. The election isn't in a month, it's still over four months away.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

8 minutes ago, Fez said:

Following that logic though, you also don't want to run the risk of peaking too early. The election isn't in a month, it's still over four months away.

I don't think there will be a "peak too early" situation. The fire is not just burning, but roaring. 

[Zorral]

Multiple Juneteeth-BLM marches simultaneously in all the boroughs here.  They've been converging in downtown Manhattan, around the African Burial Ground, City Hall, etc.  Thousands and thousands.  We marched through our neighborhood.

O. Did I need to say that everyone marching wears masks?  Unlike all those drunk clowns cheek and jowl at the restaurant bars out on the streets -- who feel the marchers are dreadfully inconveniencing gettin' their duink on.

 

[ThinkerX]

I suppose its an improvement, though I do wonder just how honest the disclosures will be: 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/small-business-administration-and-treasury-shift-course-will-disclose-ppp-borrowers-over-dollar150000/ar-BB15JyqA?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=msnclassic

 

The Small Business Administration and Treasury Department, under withering criticism for lack of transparency, shifted course Friday and announced they would disclose details of borrowers in the Paycheck Protection Program.

[Martell Spy]

Chaos in the U.S. DOJ. This admin is like a Batman movie, there is just lots of disorder everywhere. 

U.S. Attorney Of Mighty Southern District Of New York Is Stepping Down, Barr Announces

But Geoffrey Berman issues his own statem

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/geoffrey-berman-william-barr-us-attorney-southern-district-new-york-trump_n_5eed7619c5b63562b7603756

Quote

 

U.S. Attorney Geoffrey Berman is leaving as head of the powerful Southern District of New York, Attorney General William Barr announced late Friday. The office is one of the nation’s mightiest districts, trying major cases against the mobsters, terrorists — and allies of President Donald Trump, including his personal lawyer Michael Cohen. 

But Berman issued his own statement following Barr’s announcement, saying that he is not resigning and has “no intention of resigning my position.”

 

 

[ants]

The above post doesn't mention a key element - Berman's office is currently investigating Trump's lawyer Rudy. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/trump-administration-replaces-manhattan-us-attorney/2020/06/19/acae9348-b298-11ea-8758-bfd1d045525a_story.html

Got to love that another person Trump tried to fire via social media.  

Also got to love these Republicans (Berman is registered as such) who care more about justice than Trump.  I wonder if the investigation into Rudy, like the investigation by a Republican lawmaker and initiated by a Trump nominee (Mueller/Rosenstein) will also be a "Dem Conspiracy!".  

Berman was initially appointed by Sessions under the 12O day interim basis pending a Senate confirmed Trump appointment and when the 120 days expired, the SDNY subsequently appointed him, with his term to run until a Senate confirmed Presidential nomination.  Trump has never nominated anyone, and it looks like he can't be replaced without a senate appointee: