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Kaligator

US Politics: Ruthless ambition

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Just saw an article in the Guardian where Beto talks about the efforts being made in Texas (specifically the Rio Grande valley). One thing that sticks out is how little enthusiasm there is among Texas latinos for Biden, and yet he managed to be competitive there. Seems like a lost opportunity a bit.

Since his race against the zodiac killer 2 years ago, there have been 2m new registered voters in Texas, presumably driving some of Biden;'s gains combined with Covid.

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18 hours ago, DMC said:

If your assertion is that the US is descending into authoritarianism because of the stupidity of the American electorate, your unit of analysis should include governments that are authoritarian.  Limiting your sample to the most democratic countries is just circular logic.  Regardless, even if you were just to compare the US to western European companies, the US is still far from unique in the rise of authoritarian sentiment among electorates over the past quarter century.

Hum, I can see how Citizens United slowly crawls into your political thinking. But no, companies are not part of the EU electorate.

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1 hour ago, Gaston de Foix said:

a mandatory retirement age for federal judges. 

The Dems might be able to get away with this for lower courts, but the SC would undoubtedly strike down any attempt to put a retirement age on their own tenure simple by citing Article III Section 1.  Even a liberal court would strike it down.

5 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Hum, I can see how Citizens United slowly crawls into your political thinking. But no, companies are not part of the EU electorate.

:P.  As a real American and true capitalist I often conflate countries and companies.  After all, the former are merely a tool for the latter.

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I just watched a nice interchange between Dr. Fauci responding to Sen. Rand’s bullshit. Rand attacked Fauci for praising NY, “NY has the world’s highest death rate”. Fauci said “you always do this, NY got hit hard first and made some mistakes but right now they are managing extremely well and have a very low rate of infection”. Rand: probably because in addition to the people who got Covid-19, 33% of the population has immunity because they have caught coronavirus colds and N.Y. has herd immunity. Fauci: there is no immunity to Covid-19 from catching a coronavirus cold and the rate of infection in NY is 22.2% and if you think herd immunity is achieved with 22.2% you are alone in that.

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25 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

Very anecdotal stuff below:

I am incredibly encouraged by the fact that I have seen TWO - only two - Trump/Pence signs in ATL, and one of them was on a highway median, so I’m not sure if that one even counts. Contrast that to 2016, when the damn things were like herpes.

However, a drive down West Paces Ferry in Atlanta (one of Atlanta’s wealthiest neighborhoods) had two large Biden signs and numerous signs supporting Jen Jordan (a state Senator - D). And 2016, most of it was Trump/Pence. I don’t think the $5 million homes have new owners, I think this bespeaks enthusiasm on the part of the Democrats who live there and a lack of Republican enthusiasm. There was one Kelly Loeffler sign, so pretty sure that it hasn’t been every home sale was to a Democrat. Just the fact of the one Loeffler sign, no Perdue signs, and no Trump/Pence signs says a lot in that neighborhood.

I was also really pleased to see the level of support for Jen Jordan - she’s been focused on practical local issues.

I guess the urban / rural divide is the most obvious factor. I live in a small town in Virginia that seems pretty Biden friendly, but I do not have to go far out of town before it is Trump sign central. And lots and lots of them too, not just a few. Back in the day Raidne described Virginia (paraphrasing here) as NOVA surrounded by Jason Stackhouse (if a True Blood reference doesn’t date that comment I don’t know what will!) 

Thats a little bit of an oversimplification but it’s largely true. The urban parts of Virginia are blue, the rural parts are solidly red. The ONLY reason Virginia is blue is the weight of the DC suburbs has finally overwhelmed the conservative nature of most of the rest of the state. This is the dynamic at play everywhere, Virginia just was one of the first to flip. The same thing is going on in Georgia, North Carolina, Texas, and Arizona. The growing urban areas are steadily gaining ground on the traditionally conservative areas. I think this also goes a long way towards explaining the no holds barred approach the Republicans have been taking in recent times. Clock’s ticking.

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25 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

The Breonna Taylor Grand Jury decision will come out any moment from now.

 

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In contrast to the terrible WaPo polls of FL and AZ, Marquette (another good firm) did a national poll and came out with Biden 50, Trump 40, third party 5, undecided 5.  Biden +10 is always good to see, and Biden's lead in national polls is back up to +7 in the 538 average after falling down a bit below that this past week.

Obviously, it's a national poll and those are increasingly irrelevant as the election gets closer.  But still, if the race stabilizes at Biden +7 (or even Biden +6) nationally, then he has a lot of paths to victory.  If it falls down to Biden +5 or less, then Trump's ability to steal the election one way or another goes up dramatically. 

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Anecdotally, NE IL and Southern WI are awash with Trump signs. Granted it seems there are far fewer Trump signs than in 2016 but I see almost no Biden signs. The Trump voters I interact with are the very opposite of the supposedly "shy Trump voter," they are loud and proud about it, so the Biden voters could just be keeping their heads down about their preference.

I know I personally would not openly flaunt my preference for Biden, not in this contentious atmosphere at least. Does that make me a coward? Yeah probably, but I really don't think signs, flags, or bumper stickers convince anyone to vote or switch their preferences, especially at the presidential level. Donations do a better job IMO.

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16 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

“Wanton endangerment”

Whoo hoo!

Is this legal weasel speak for "not murder?"

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6 minutes ago, Durckad said:

Is this legal weasel speak for "not murder?"

From a Kentucky law blog:

Quote

Kentucky has two types of wanton endangerment; First-Degree and Second Degree:

First-Degree Wanton Endangerment: “A person is guilty of wanton endangerment in the first degree when, under circumstances manifesting extreme indifference to the value of human life, he wantonly engages in conduct which creates a substantial danger of death or serious physical injury to another person” (KRS 508.060). First-degree wanton endangerment is a Class D felony, punishable with fines of up to $10,000 and up to five years in prison.

Second-Degree Wanton Endangerment: “A person is guilty of wanton endangerment in the second degree when he wantonly engages in conduct which creates a substantial danger of physical injury to another person” (KRS 508.070). Second-degree wanton endangerment is a Class A misdemeanor, punishable with fines of up to $500 and up to 12 months in county jail.

 

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6 minutes ago, Durckad said:

Anecdotally, NE IL and Southern WI are awash with Trump signs. Granted it seems there are far fewer Trump signs than in 2016 but I see almost no Biden signs. The Trump voters I interact with are the very opposite of the supposedly "shy Trump voter," they are loud and proud about it, so the Biden voters could just be keeping their heads down about their preference.

I know I personally would not openly flaunt my preference for Biden, not in this contentious atmosphere at least. Does that make me a coward? Yeah probably, but I really don't think signs, flags, or bumper stickers convince anyone to vote or switch their preferences, especially at the presidential level. Donations do a better job IMO.

Trump exceeds Biden signs probably 4 to 1 in the Northeast of the state, at least from what I observe during my commutes:stunned:

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4 hours ago, Fez said:

Oh and states better be fucking prepared to count votes fast. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/

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Trump may test this. According to sources in the Republican Party at the state and national levels, the Trump campaign is discussing contingency plans to bypass election results and appoint loyal electors in battleground states where Republicans hold the legislative majority. With a justification based on claims of rampant fraud, Trump would ask state legislators to set aside the popular vote and exercise their power to choose a slate of electors directly. The longer Trump succeeds in keeping the vote count in doubt, the more pressure legislators will feel to act before the safe-harbor deadline expires

People need to really not overlook the nightmare scenario Fez is posting here.

I am bracing for just such a shitstorm to play out. I'm still very worried the Dictator will steal this. If there's anything we do know it's that the Trump's are accomplished thieves.

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There are no shy Trump voters (there is some evidence for this that 538 has based on negligible difference in support for him between online and phone interviews). Anecdotally, here in Michigan they appear to be obnoxiously loud about their support. I put up my Biden sign up in the yard after I saw the lady across put up her Trump sign, wasnt gonna let that go unanswered lol.

We should be more worried about undersampling based on education, even though everyone swears up and down its been mostly corrected for (538 has a recent article that notes many but not all have done so, its difficult to do because educated people are more likely to answer polls apparently)

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My mother informs me that our 80yr old dad has the lawn full of Kamala and Joe signs down in lower Michigan. 

That man (40 yr ex building tradesman) lives to get in the grill of namby pamby R's.:D

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Even MORE sanctions on Cuba, interfering yet again with US having any interaction whatsoever. And we were in the planning stages with more than one institution, including Cornell University.

But now it's illegal for US individuals and institutions to even participate in an academic conference, much less anything else, that involves Cubans. This latest isn't mentioned in the Reuters piece, but the lawyers for these matters just sent us all of it.

It is in the Miami Herald piece, of course.

Quote

 

The Treasury also eliminated a general authorization policy for the participation or organization of conferences, seminars, exhibitions and sporting events. Citizens, residents and companies subject to U.S. law must apply for a specific authorization or license for these activities.

The new rules will go into effect Thursday, when they will be officially published in the Federal Register.

 


Play to the ancient Miami Cubans -- but wait, he says coronavirus only affects old people so who the eff cares about it? What if those voters are all down with covid?

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48 minutes ago, DMC said:

 

For the record, he isn't being charged with wanton endangerment for shooting Breonna, it is 3 counts of wanton endangerment for shooting up their neighbors walls. The walls got more justice than Breonna, this is a travesty.

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14 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

We should be more worried about undersampling based on education, even though everyone swears up and down its been mostly corrected for (538 has a recent article that notes many but not all have done so, its difficult to do because educated people are more likely to answer polls apparently)

As I've said before, it is not as simple a case as asking firms whether they corrected for education or not.  The decision to do so is based on the overall population (i.e. national vs. state polls) you're examining, the specifics of the model you're using to achieve a random sample of that population, and the hard data before doing any weighting/correcting.  While in general it's of course good for firms to be more alert to the mistake in under-sampling uneducated whites in 2016, any good scientific poll still should strive to achieve the most parsimonious model possible and remain attentive to the potential dangers of multicollinearity and overfitting.  Here's a quick explanation in (mostly) plain English:

Quote

An overfit model is one that is too complicated for your data set. When this happens, the regression model becomes tailored to fit the quirks and random noise in your specific sample rather than reflecting the overall population. If you drew another sample, it would have its own quirks, and your original overfit model would not likely fit the new data.

Instead, we want our model to approximate the true model for the entire population. Our model should not only fit the current sample, but new samples too.

The fitted line plot illustrates the dangers of overfitting regression models. This model appears to explain a lot of variation in the response variable. However, the model is too complex for the sample data. In the overall population, there is no real relationship between the predictor and the response.

 

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Right, and I'd be somewhat worried if a poll was using independent 'substantial' corrections for both income and education, as an example, since the two are correlated to a great extent. Still, and this is all 538, not me, the claim is that education is about as important as race as a predictor so it might not contribute to overparametrization.

At any rate, I am not as interested in the truth of a model as I am in getting its upper bound (i.e, the upper bound of support for Trump). In that respect, I am ok if pollsters oversample whites without college degrees or things like that.

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